BYU
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.4#44
Expected Predictive Rating+7.7#76
Pace68.6#179
Improvement-0.5#203

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#31
First Shot+4.2#68
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#29
Layup/Dunks-1.4#238
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#152
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#22
Freethrows-1.1#257
Improvement-1.3#263

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#63
First Shot-1.3#221
After Offensive Rebounds+5.6#2
Layups/Dunks+9.7#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#361
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#351
Freethrows+1.1#104
Improvement+0.8#141
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 3.2% 4.2% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.1% 38.3% 22.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.6% 37.9% 22.4%
Average Seed 9.0 8.9 9.3
.500 or above 84.8% 91.4% 75.0%
.500 or above in Conference 31.8% 40.7% 18.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 0.5% 4.5%
First Four7.9% 8.5% 7.0%
First Round28.4% 34.2% 19.8%
Second Round14.5% 17.7% 9.8%
Sweet Sixteen3.8% 4.8% 2.3%
Elite Eight1.5% 1.9% 0.9%
Final Four0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Away) - 59.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 24 - 37 - 14
Quad 34 - 011 - 14
Quad 47 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 339   Central Arkansas W 88-50 98%     1 - 0 +23.8 +10.7 +13.8
  Nov 08, 2024 175   UC Riverside W 86-80 91%     2 - 0 +2.7 +6.9 -4.5
  Nov 13, 2024 210   Queens W 99-55 93%     3 - 0 +38.8 +17.5 +19.1
  Nov 16, 2024 246   Idaho W 95-71 95%     4 - 0 +16.5 +13.2 +2.8
  Nov 23, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 87-43 99.8%    5 - 0 +16.0 +12.6 +8.9
  Nov 28, 2024 19   Mississippi L 85-96 OT 34%     5 - 1 +4.6 +8.7 -2.6
  Nov 29, 2024 93   North Carolina St. W 72-61 70%     6 - 1 +17.1 +7.3 +10.6
  Dec 03, 2024 81   @ Providence L 64-83 56%     6 - 2 -9.1 +4.3 -16.0
  Dec 11, 2024 254   Fresno St. W 95-67 95%     7 - 2 +20.0 +11.6 +6.1
  Dec 14, 2024 186   Wyoming W 68-49 88%     8 - 2 +17.8 +6.4 +14.6
  Dec 20, 2024 360   Florida A&M W 103-57 99%     9 - 2 +28.6 +14.6 +10.3
  Dec 31, 2024 64   Arizona St. W 76-56 71%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +25.8 +13.5 +14.0
  Jan 04, 2025 3   @ Houston L 55-86 12%     10 - 3 1 - 1 -6.7 +1.8 -12.0
  Jan 07, 2025 17   Texas Tech L 67-72 41%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +8.7 +8.8 -0.8
  Jan 11, 2025 62   @ TCU L 67-71 50%     10 - 5 1 - 3 +7.4 +6.3 +0.9
  Jan 14, 2025 101   Oklahoma St. W 85-69 82%     11 - 5 2 - 3 +17.8 +15.1 +2.9
  Jan 18, 2025 69   @ Utah L 72-73 OT 52%     11 - 6 2 - 4 +9.8 +0.7 +9.2
  Jan 21, 2025 94   @ Colorado W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 25, 2025 39   Cincinnati W 69-67 60%    
  Jan 28, 2025 22   Baylor L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 01, 2025 71   @ Central Florida W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 04, 2025 13   Arizona L 76-79 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 39   @ Cincinnati L 66-69 37%    
  Feb 11, 2025 32   @ West Virginia L 67-71 34%    
  Feb 15, 2025 89   Kansas St. W 78-70 78%    
  Feb 18, 2025 6   Kansas L 71-76 32%    
  Feb 22, 2025 13   @ Arizona L 74-82 21%    
  Feb 26, 2025 64   @ Arizona St. W 74-73 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 32   West Virginia W 70-69 56%    
  Mar 04, 2025 4   @ Iowa St. L 68-80 14%    
  Mar 08, 2025 69   Utah W 79-73 72%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.9 0.2 6.0 6th
7th 0.7 4.1 4.0 0.6 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.5 4.8 6.3 1.8 0.1 13.5 8th
9th 0.2 3.4 7.5 2.5 0.2 13.8 9th
10th 0.1 2.3 7.9 4.2 0.2 14.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 5.9 5.1 0.6 0.0 12.6 11th
12th 0.3 3.2 5.4 1.1 0.0 10.0 12th
13th 0.1 1.6 3.7 1.8 0.1 7.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.1 0.1 4.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.0 15th
16th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 16th
Total 0.1 0.4 2.0 4.9 9.1 15.7 18.1 17.9 13.9 9.7 5.0 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 33.3% 0.0    0.0
15-5 7.1% 0.0    0.0
14-6 1.5% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.7% 100.0% 3.0% 97.0% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
13-7 2.3% 98.2% 4.4% 93.9% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.2%
12-8 5.0% 94.2% 2.4% 91.8% 7.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.3 94.1%
11-9 9.7% 81.9% 1.6% 80.3% 8.8 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.3 1.8 0.7 1.8 81.6%
10-10 13.9% 64.4% 0.7% 63.7% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.0 3.4 2.1 0.1 5.0 64.1%
9-11 17.9% 30.8% 0.7% 30.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.2 0.3 12.4 30.3%
8-12 18.1% 8.7% 0.2% 8.5% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.3 16.5 8.5%
7-13 15.7% 1.5% 0.1% 1.3% 11.2 0.2 0.0 15.5 1.3%
6-14 9.1% 0.3% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 9.1
5-15 4.9% 4.9
4-16 2.0% 2.0
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 32.1% 0.7% 31.4% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.2 5.0 5.8 7.0 7.3 0.6 67.9 31.6%