Alabama
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.8#7
Expected Predictive Rating+13.2#29
Pace78.8#20
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+11.0#3
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#16
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.0% 9.5% 4.4%
#1 Seed 25.2% 31.8% 18.2%
Top 2 Seed 46.6% 56.4% 36.3%
Top 4 Seed 72.8% 81.5% 63.8%
Top 6 Seed 84.2% 90.9% 77.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.2% 96.9% 89.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.8% 96.1% 87.6%
Average Seed 3.2 2.8 3.7
.500 or above 95.4% 98.1% 92.5%
.500 or above in Conference 88.0% 91.5% 84.5%
Conference Champion 20.9% 24.9% 16.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four2.1% 1.2% 3.1%
First Round92.3% 96.3% 88.2%
Second Round82.1% 88.2% 75.8%
Sweet Sixteen55.8% 62.3% 49.1%
Elite Eight33.1% 38.4% 27.6%
Final Four18.4% 21.8% 14.7%
Championship Game10.1% 12.4% 7.7%
National Champion5.3% 6.6% 3.9%

Next Game: Purdue (Away) - 51.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 76 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 210 - 8
Quad 25 - 115 - 9
Quad 35 - 020 - 10
Quad 43 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 211   UNC Asheville W 110-54 98%     1 - 0 +50.3 +27.2 +20.0
  Nov 08, 2024 115   Arkansas St. W 88-79 94%     2 - 0 +9.5 -0.2 +8.2
  Nov 11, 2024 99   McNeese St. W 72-64 92%     3 - 0 +10.1 +3.4 +7.1
  Nov 15, 2024 15   @ Purdue W 81-80 51%    
  Nov 20, 2024 20   Illinois W 85-80 66%    
  Nov 26, 2024 2   Houston L 72-74 44%    
  Nov 27, 2024 37   Rutgers W 80-73 72%    
  Dec 04, 2024 10   @ North Carolina L 83-85 44%    
  Dec 14, 2024 16   Creighton W 84-77 73%    
  Dec 18, 2024 271   @ North Dakota W 89-68 97%    
  Dec 22, 2024 122   Kent St. W 85-67 94%    
  Dec 29, 2024 166   South Dakota St. W 90-69 97%    
  Jan 04, 2025 52   Oklahoma W 83-72 84%    
  Jan 08, 2025 64   @ South Carolina W 79-73 71%    
  Jan 11, 2025 28   @ Texas A&M W 78-76 57%    
  Jan 14, 2025 61   Mississippi W 84-72 86%    
  Jan 18, 2025 12   @ Kentucky L 86-87 45%    
  Jan 21, 2025 83   Vanderbilt W 89-75 88%    
  Jan 25, 2025 48   LSU W 87-76 83%    
  Jan 29, 2025 26   @ Mississippi St. W 82-80 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 68   Georgia W 88-75 87%    
  Feb 08, 2025 19   @ Arkansas W 81-80 54%    
  Feb 11, 2025 23   @ Texas W 80-78 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 3   Auburn W 83-82 56%    
  Feb 19, 2025 71   @ Missouri W 83-76 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 12   Kentucky W 89-84 65%    
  Feb 25, 2025 26   Mississippi St. W 85-77 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 9   @ Tennessee L 77-79 43%    
  Mar 05, 2025 21   Florida W 90-82 75%    
  Mar 08, 2025 3   @ Auburn L 80-85 35%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.4 6.4 5.2 2.8 0.6 20.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.4 5.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.9 5.2 1.8 0.2 13.3 3rd
4th 0.5 3.7 5.1 1.6 0.1 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 4.6 1.8 0.1 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.3 2.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 2.6 1.0 0.0 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.4 0.1 3.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 3.3 5.3 7.4 10.3 12.5 13.8 13.7 12.0 9.2 5.6 2.8 0.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.8% 2.8    2.7 0.1
16-2 92.9% 5.2    4.2 1.0 0.0
15-3 69.2% 6.4    3.7 2.2 0.4 0.0
14-4 36.3% 4.4    1.6 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 9.8% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.9% 20.9 13.1 5.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 57.8% 42.2% 1.1 0.6 0.1 100.0%
17-1 2.8% 100.0% 48.9% 51.1% 1.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.6% 100.0% 42.5% 57.5% 1.2 4.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.2% 100.0% 32.0% 68.0% 1.4 6.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 12.0% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 1.7 5.6 4.7 1.4 0.2 0.1 100.0%
13-5 13.7% 100.0% 19.9% 80.0% 2.2 3.6 5.6 3.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 13.8% 100.0% 15.2% 84.7% 2.8 1.7 4.2 4.2 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 12.5% 99.9% 9.8% 90.1% 3.7 0.5 2.0 3.7 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 10.3% 98.6% 6.7% 91.8% 4.8 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.4 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.5%
9-9 7.4% 93.6% 3.8% 89.8% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 93.4%
8-10 5.3% 75.0% 2.1% 72.9% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 74.5%
7-11 3.3% 45.0% 1.1% 43.9% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.8 44.4%
6-12 1.9% 17.6% 0.5% 17.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.6 17.1%
5-13 0.8% 4.0% 0.4% 3.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6%
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 93.2% 17.4% 75.9% 3.2 25.2 21.5 15.3 10.9 7.1 4.2 2.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.7 0.6 0.0 6.8 91.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 96.3 3.7