McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.1#99
Expected Predictive Rating-9.3#313
Pace64.7#313
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#96
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#104
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.3% 55.2% 45.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 12.8 13.7
.500 or above 97.2% 99.0% 95.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.7% 99.0%
Conference Champion 69.1% 74.8% 63.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.4% 1.2%
First Round49.9% 55.0% 44.6%
Second Round9.4% 12.1% 6.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 3.5% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Home) - 51.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 11 - 3
Quad 34 - 35 - 6
Quad 416 - 221 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 166   South Dakota St. L 73-80 69%     0 - 1 -7.0 -4.3 -2.4
  Nov 11, 2024 7   @ Alabama L 64-72 8%     0 - 2 +12.8 +2.6 +9.9
  Nov 18, 2024 73   North Texas W 62-61 51%    
  Nov 22, 2024 173   Illinois St. W 69-63 70%    
  Dec 03, 2024 111   Santa Clara W 75-71 65%    
  Dec 14, 2024 26   Mississippi St. L 68-76 25%    
  Dec 22, 2024 188   @ Louisiana W 71-68 63%    
  Dec 28, 2024 347   New Orleans W 84-64 96%    
  Dec 30, 2024 276   SE Louisiana W 75-61 90%    
  Jan 04, 2025 353   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 74-59 91%    
  Jan 06, 2025 332   @ Northwestern St. W 75-63 85%    
  Jan 11, 2025 212   Nicholls St. W 74-63 83%    
  Jan 13, 2025 358   @ Houston Christian W 81-65 92%    
  Jan 18, 2025 280   Lamar W 78-64 89%    
  Jan 20, 2025 171   Stephen F. Austin W 73-64 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 269   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 78-70 75%    
  Jan 27, 2025 219   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 212   @ Nicholls St. W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 03, 2025 327   Incarnate Word W 84-66 94%    
  Feb 08, 2025 332   Northwestern St. W 78-60 94%    
  Feb 10, 2025 353   Texas A&M - Commerce W 77-56 96%    
  Feb 15, 2025 347   @ New Orleans W 81-67 89%    
  Feb 17, 2025 276   @ SE Louisiana W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 219   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76-65 83%    
  Feb 24, 2025 269   UT Rio Grande Valley W 81-67 88%    
  Mar 01, 2025 280   @ Lamar W 75-67 76%    
  Mar 03, 2025 171   Stephen F. Austin W 73-64 76%    
Projected Record 20 - 7 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.6 7.9 13.9 17.9 16.7 9.5 69.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.3 5.3 2.8 0.6 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.9 6.2 9.8 13.6 16.7 18.5 16.7 9.5 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 9.5    9.5
19-1 100.0% 16.7    16.4 0.3
18-2 96.6% 17.9    16.1 1.8 0.0
17-3 83.0% 13.9    10.5 3.2 0.2
16-4 58.2% 7.9    4.6 2.8 0.5 0.0
15-5 26.9% 2.6    0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1
14-6 8.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 69.1% 69.1 58.1 9.5 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 9.5% 76.1% 75.9% 0.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.4 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.3 0.9%
19-1 16.7% 67.2% 67.2% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.3 4.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.5
18-2 18.5% 59.8% 59.8% 13.2 0.1 2.2 4.7 3.4 0.7 0.0 7.4
17-3 16.7% 51.5% 51.5% 13.8 0.5 2.7 3.6 1.6 0.2 8.1
16-4 13.6% 43.3% 43.3% 14.3 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.1 0.5 7.7
15-5 9.8% 35.5% 35.5% 14.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.7 6.3
14-6 6.2% 24.7% 24.7% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 4.7
13-7 3.9% 19.8% 19.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 3.2
12-8 2.4% 10.8% 10.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.1
11-9 1.3% 10.2% 10.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1
10-10 0.7% 5.1% 5.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.6
9-11 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
8-12 0.2% 0.2
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 50.3% 50.2% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 2.4 9.7 14.1 12.4 7.2 2.8 49.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 6.4 1.4 1.9 4.6 13.9 20.1 20.1 12.0 3.3 7.6 7.1 6.5 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 14.6% 10.5 4.9 2.4 2.4 4.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%