Nicholls St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#192
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#182
Pace69.3#142
Improvement+2.7#77

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#198
First Shot-2.8#260
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#75
Layup/Dunks+0.5#161
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#192
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#198
Freethrows-2.3#312
Improvement+1.8#97

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#199
First Shot-1.1#213
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#173
Layups/Dunks+0.9#136
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#142
Freethrows-3.2#352
Improvement+0.9#140
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 6.5% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 89.8% 95.7% 73.8%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round5.8% 6.5% 4.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Home) - 73.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 01 - 4
Quad 33 - 64 - 10
Quad 412 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 38   @ New Mexico L 84-91 7%     0 - 1 +7.9 +5.7 +3.4
  Nov 08, 2024 133   South Alabama L 64-70 47%     0 - 2 -7.0 -1.8 -5.6
  Nov 14, 2024 241   @ Northern Kentucky W 61-59 50%     1 - 2 +0.1 -9.5 +9.7
  Nov 15, 2024 46   @ Cincinnati L 49-86 8%     1 - 3 -23.2 -11.4 -14.3
  Nov 20, 2024 157   Towson L 64-70 51%     1 - 4 -8.1 -1.5 -7.2
  Nov 30, 2024 289   @ Louisiana W 76-75 60%     2 - 4 -3.5 +8.5 -11.9
  Dec 05, 2024 213   SE Louisiana W 67-64 63%     3 - 4 1 - 0 -2.2 -11.4 +9.0
  Dec 07, 2024 353   New Orleans W 73-70 90%     4 - 4 2 - 0 -12.7 -7.1 -5.6
  Dec 18, 2024 11   @ Gonzaga L 72-102 3%     4 - 5 -9.1 -0.1 -6.1
  Dec 30, 2024 165   @ Seattle W 71-69 34%     5 - 5 +4.3 +2.2 +2.2
  Jan 04, 2025 272   @ Northwestern St. L 66-68 57%     5 - 6 2 - 1 -5.8 -0.3 -5.6
  Jan 06, 2025 339   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 83-61 75%     6 - 6 3 - 1 +13.0 +15.3 -0.1
  Jan 11, 2025 86   @ McNeese St. L 71-80 15%     6 - 7 3 - 2 +0.2 +0.1 +0.4
  Jan 13, 2025 281   @ Incarnate Word W 88-82 59%     7 - 7 4 - 2 +1.9 +12.4 -10.4
  Jan 18, 2025 249   Stephen F. Austin W 73-61 70%     8 - 7 5 - 2 +4.6 +3.2 +1.7
  Jan 20, 2025 194   Lamar L 74-78 60%     8 - 8 5 - 3 -8.4 +1.2 -9.6
  Jan 25, 2025 199   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 57-61 41%     8 - 9 5 - 4 -3.6 -12.8 +9.0
  Jan 27, 2025 262   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-75 54%     9 - 9 6 - 4 +4.1 +7.4 -3.3
  Feb 01, 2025 86   McNeese St. W 71-63 28%     10 - 9 7 - 4 +12.1 +4.1 +8.4
  Feb 03, 2025 295   Houston Christian W 75-67 78%     11 - 9 8 - 4 -2.0 +6.6 -7.6
  Feb 08, 2025 339   Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-65 87%     12 - 9 9 - 4 +2.0 +9.8 -6.5
  Feb 10, 2025 272   Northwestern St. L 60-72 75%     12 - 10 9 - 5 -20.8 -12.9 -8.5
  Feb 15, 2025 213   @ SE Louisiana L 81-84 OT 43%     12 - 11 9 - 6 -3.1 +4.0 -6.9
  Feb 17, 2025 353   @ New Orleans W 78-62 80%     13 - 11 10 - 6 +5.4 -0.2 +5.7
  Feb 22, 2025 262   UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-73 73%    
  Feb 24, 2025 199   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 75-72 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 249   @ Stephen F. Austin W 69-68 50%    
  Mar 03, 2025 194   @ Lamar L 68-71 39%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 5.3 7.7 13.1 2nd
3rd 3.7 15.3 2.2 21.2 3rd
4th 2.5 23.8 10.3 0.1 36.7 4th
5th 1.7 15.7 8.3 0.0 25.7 5th
6th 1.4 1.7 3.1 6th
7th 0.2 0.2 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 3.3 19.9 35.9 31.0 10.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 10.0% 14.6% 14.6% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 8.5
13-7 31.0% 6.8% 6.8% 14.7 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.1 28.9
12-8 35.9% 4.5% 4.5% 15.1 0.2 1.1 0.3 34.3
11-9 19.9% 3.1% 3.1% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 19.2
10-10 3.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.2
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.9 0.7 94.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 14.0 0.7 19.2 61.0 19.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.7%
Lose Out 1.2%