New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#71
Expected Predictive Rating+8.1#79
Pace81.8#4
Improvement-2.7#328

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#59
First Shot+4.7#58
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#176
Layup/Dunks+6.6#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#253
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#274
Freethrows+2.3#61
Improvement-0.1#179

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#93
First Shot+1.3#136
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#59
Layups/Dunks+2.6#89
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#285
Freethrows-0.2#199
Improvement-2.6#342
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.9% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.2% 20.9% 12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.0% 9.7% 3.9%
Average Seed 10.3 10.1 10.6
.500 or above 94.9% 97.8% 91.5%
.500 or above in Conference 89.0% 91.4% 86.2%
Conference Champion 12.2% 14.3% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four3.2% 4.2% 2.0%
First Round15.5% 18.8% 11.6%
Second Round5.6% 7.0% 4.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.8% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Home) - 53.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 5
Quad 24 - 46 - 9
Quad 35 - 212 - 10
Quad 49 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 243   Nicholls St. W 91-84 92%     1 - 0 -0.6 -0.3 -1.5
  Nov 08, 2024 17   UCLA W 72-64 24%     2 - 0 +23.0 +5.0 +17.5
  Nov 12, 2024 190   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 100-81 87%     3 - 0 +14.6 +8.4 +3.0
  Nov 17, 2024 15   @ St. John's L 71-85 16%     3 - 1 +4.3 +7.4 -3.2
  Nov 21, 2024 287   Grambling St. W 80-58 94%     4 - 1 +12.3 -5.8 +15.5
  Nov 24, 2024 300   Texas Southern W 99-68 95%     5 - 1 +20.5 +11.1 +6.2
  Nov 28, 2024 61   Arizona St. L 82-85 45%     5 - 2 +6.1 +10.7 -4.5
  Nov 29, 2024 80   USC W 83-73 53%     6 - 2 +16.9 +11.7 +4.9
  Dec 04, 2024 185   San Jose St. W 83-77 87%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +1.8 +5.6 -3.9
  Dec 07, 2024 199   New Mexico St. L 83-89 OT 88%     7 - 3 -10.8 +0.0 -10.2
  Dec 18, 2024 55   Virginia Commonwealth W 76-75 54%    
  Dec 28, 2024 108   @ Colorado St. W 78-77 52%    
  Dec 31, 2024 256   @ Fresno St. W 87-77 83%    
  Jan 03, 2025 54   Nevada W 77-76 53%    
  Jan 07, 2025 187   @ Wyoming W 80-74 71%    
  Jan 11, 2025 45   San Diego St. L 76-77 49%    
  Jan 14, 2025 185   @ San Jose St. W 82-76 71%    
  Jan 17, 2025 58   Boise St. W 80-78 55%    
  Jan 20, 2025 256   Fresno St. W 90-74 93%    
  Jan 25, 2025 113   @ UNLV W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 47   @ Utah St. L 78-84 29%    
  Feb 05, 2025 108   Colorado St. W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 267   @ Air Force W 78-67 83%    
  Feb 12, 2025 187   Wyoming W 83-71 86%    
  Feb 16, 2025 47   Utah St. W 82-81 51%    
  Feb 19, 2025 58   @ Boise St. L 77-81 35%    
  Feb 25, 2025 45   @ San Diego St. L 73-79 29%    
  Mar 01, 2025 267   Air Force W 81-64 93%    
  Mar 04, 2025 54   @ Nevada L 74-79 33%    
  Mar 07, 2025 113   UNLV W 81-74 74%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.0 3.2 1.7 0.4 0.1 12.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 4.1 6.0 3.1 0.7 0.0 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.2 6.9 2.6 0.3 0.0 16.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.3 6.8 2.4 0.2 17.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 6.1 5.8 2.0 0.2 17.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.4 4.5 3.5 1.0 0.1 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.0 5.5 8.8 12.1 14.5 15.0 14.0 11.0 7.4 3.9 1.7 0.4 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 98.5% 1.7    1.5 0.1 0.0
17-3 82.4% 3.2    2.4 0.8 0.0
16-4 54.6% 4.0    1.9 1.7 0.4 0.0
15-5 20.1% 2.2    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.2% 12.2 6.8 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 52.9% 47.1% 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 96.9% 35.9% 61.0% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.1%
18-2 1.7% 81.8% 31.3% 50.5% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 73.5%
17-3 3.9% 65.5% 27.6% 37.9% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.4 52.3%
16-4 7.4% 44.6% 23.0% 21.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.1 4.1 28.1%
15-5 11.0% 28.4% 17.5% 10.9% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 0.2 7.9 13.2%
14-6 14.0% 17.2% 13.6% 3.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 0.4 11.6 4.2%
13-7 15.0% 10.5% 9.3% 1.2% 11.2 0.1 1.1 0.4 13.4 1.4%
12-8 14.5% 7.9% 7.4% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 13.4 0.4%
11-9 12.1% 5.1% 5.0% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 11.5 0.1%
10-10 8.8% 3.8% 3.8% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.4
9-11 5.5% 2.5% 2.5% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.4
8-12 3.0% 1.4% 1.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
7-13 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
6-14 0.6% 0.6
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.2% 10.9% 6.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.6 3.2 8.3 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 82.8 7.0%