New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#53
Expected Predictive Rating+12.3#41
Pace80.3#6
Improvement+1.5#115

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#81
First Shot+3.4#87
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#153
Layup/Dunks+5.6#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#205
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#301
Freethrows+2.3#54
Improvement-2.9#323

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#27
First Shot+4.6#49
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#36
Layups/Dunks+2.5#82
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#21
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#220
Freethrows+0.4#157
Improvement+4.4#10
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.5% 1.5% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.6% 46.3% 28.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.8% 32.5% 16.6%
Average Seed 9.7 9.7 10.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 47.4% 48.3% 26.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.9% 11.0% 7.0%
First Round39.9% 40.5% 25.1%
Second Round16.2% 16.6% 6.7%
Sweet Sixteen3.7% 3.8% 1.0%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.1% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Home) - 96.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 23 - 4
Quad 27 - 210 - 6
Quad 35 - 215 - 8
Quad 48 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 205   Nicholls St. W 91-84 92%     1 - 0 +2.1 -0.1 +1.1
  Nov 08, 2024 31   UCLA W 72-64 40%     2 - 0 +21.0 +2.8 +17.6
  Nov 12, 2024 169   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 100-81 89%     3 - 0 +15.9 +8.2 +4.5
  Nov 17, 2024 16   @ St. John's L 71-85 20%     3 - 1 +5.2 +10.8 -5.6
  Nov 21, 2024 325   Grambling St. W 80-58 97%     4 - 1 +9.2 -7.0 +13.7
  Nov 24, 2024 300   Texas Southern W 99-68 96%     5 - 1 +20.5 +14.4 +3.0
  Nov 28, 2024 64   Arizona St. L 82-85 57%     5 - 2 +5.6 +11.1 -5.3
  Nov 29, 2024 61   USC W 83-73 55%     6 - 2 +19.1 +12.1 +6.7
  Dec 04, 2024 160   San Jose St. W 83-77 88%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +3.5 +6.4 -2.9
  Dec 07, 2024 128   New Mexico St. L 83-89 OT 85%     7 - 3 -6.5 +2.2 -8.1
  Dec 18, 2024 49   Virginia Commonwealth W 78-71 60%     8 - 3 +15.0 +6.5 +8.1
  Dec 28, 2024 76   @ Colorado St. W 76-68 52%     9 - 3 2 - 0 +18.0 +11.0 +7.2
  Dec 31, 2024 254   @ Fresno St. W 103-89 88%     10 - 3 3 - 0 +11.5 +10.1 -1.4
  Jan 03, 2025 68   Nevada W 82-81 OT 69%     11 - 3 4 - 0 +6.4 +4.1 +2.1
  Jan 07, 2025 186   @ Wyoming W 61-53 80%     12 - 3 5 - 0 +9.6 -8.7 +18.5
  Jan 11, 2025 47   San Diego St. W 62-48 59%     13 - 3 6 - 0 +22.1 -0.1 +22.8
  Jan 14, 2025 160   @ San Jose St. L 70-71 76%     13 - 4 6 - 1 +2.0 -5.0 +7.0
  Jan 17, 2025 57   Boise St. W 84-65 63%     14 - 4 7 - 1 +26.0 +10.2 +15.2
  Jan 20, 2025 254   Fresno St. W 91-73 96%    
  Jan 25, 2025 99   @ UNLV W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 01, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 78-81 40%    
  Feb 05, 2025 76   Colorado St. W 77-71 72%    
  Feb 08, 2025 275   @ Air Force W 77-63 90%    
  Feb 12, 2025 186   Wyoming W 80-66 92%    
  Feb 16, 2025 54   Utah St. W 81-78 61%    
  Feb 19, 2025 57   @ Boise St. L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 25, 2025 47   @ San Diego St. L 69-72 37%    
  Mar 01, 2025 275   Air Force W 80-60 97%    
  Mar 04, 2025 68   @ Nevada L 72-73 47%    
  Mar 07, 2025 99   UNLV W 78-70 79%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 8.9 17.1 13.5 5.7 1.0 47.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 8.4 12.3 4.5 0.4 26.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.0 8.0 1.8 0.1 14.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.3 1.4 0.0 7.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.1 0.0 3.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 4.1 10.2 19.0 23.1 21.6 13.9 5.7 1.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0
18-2 100.0% 5.7    5.6 0.1
17-3 97.0% 13.5    11.5 1.9 0.0
16-4 79.0% 17.1    10.1 6.2 0.7
15-5 38.7% 8.9    2.4 4.2 2.2 0.2 0.0
14-6 6.7% 1.3    0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 47.4% 47.4 30.8 12.6 3.5 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.0% 97.9% 42.7% 55.2% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.4%
18-2 5.7% 92.6% 35.5% 57.1% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.4 88.6%
17-3 13.9% 78.2% 29.3% 48.9% 9.3 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.6 3.3 1.4 3.0 69.2%
16-4 21.6% 56.9% 23.1% 33.8% 10.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 5.0 4.1 0.1 9.3 43.9%
15-5 23.1% 41.0% 19.5% 21.5% 10.5 0.1 0.9 3.1 5.1 0.2 13.6 26.7%
14-6 19.0% 24.1% 13.5% 10.6% 10.8 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.2 0.3 14.5 12.3%
13-7 10.2% 15.6% 11.0% 4.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 0.1 8.6 5.2%
12-8 4.1% 12.5% 10.8% 1.7% 11.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 3.6 1.9%
11-9 1.2% 9.4% 7.7% 1.7% 11.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.9%
10-10 0.3% 0.3
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 45.6% 20.2% 25.4% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 4.3 8.4 13.0 15.7 0.9 54.4 31.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 4.0 4.9 24.4 36.6 29.3 4.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 92.0% 7.1 8.0 20.0 28.0 24.0 12.0