Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#58
Expected Predictive Rating+8.3#76
Pace67.4#224
Improvement-2.3#313

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#53
First Shot+3.2#93
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#89
Layup/Dunks+5.5#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#356
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#279
Freethrows+4.8#6
Improvement-3.0#354

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#68
First Shot+2.7#98
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#64
Layups/Dunks-1.9#245
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#137
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#72
Freethrows+1.0#116
Improvement+0.6#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 1.9% 2.0% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.1% 26.5% 13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.0% 12.3% 4.0%
Average Seed 9.8 9.8 10.5
.500 or above 98.0% 98.3% 91.2%
.500 or above in Conference 93.2% 93.5% 86.2%
Conference Champion 19.9% 20.2% 11.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four4.2% 4.3% 2.1%
First Round24.0% 24.4% 12.2%
Second Round10.4% 10.6% 4.3%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 3.0% 0.9%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.0% 0.3%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Home) - 96.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 4
Quad 24 - 47 - 8
Quad 36 - 213 - 10
Quad 49 - 122 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 166   Oakland W 87-43 88%     1 - 0 +40.5 +19.6 +23.9
  Nov 09, 2024 56   @ San Francisco L 73-84 38%     1 - 1 +1.5 +9.7 -8.4
  Nov 17, 2024 30   Clemson W 84-71 48%     2 - 1 +22.7 +15.7 +6.8
  Nov 24, 2024 270   Hampton W 83-69 91%     3 - 1 +8.2 +9.3 -0.8
  Nov 25, 2024 123   South Dakota St. W 83-82 74%     4 - 1 +3.5 +11.4 -7.9
  Nov 26, 2024 150   Boston College L 61-63 80%     4 - 2 -1.6 -10.4 +8.8
  Dec 03, 2024 298   Utah Tech W 87-64 95%     5 - 2 +12.7 +16.7 -1.9
  Dec 07, 2024 68   Washington St. L 69-74 55%     5 - 3 +3.0 -1.4 +4.5
  Dec 14, 2024 41   St. Mary's W 67-65 OT 41%     6 - 3 +13.6 +5.9 +7.8
  Dec 17, 2024 300   Texas Southern W 82-62 97%    
  Dec 21, 2024 267   Air Force W 75-57 95%    
  Dec 28, 2024 185   @ San Jose St. W 75-68 76%    
  Dec 31, 2024 187   @ Wyoming W 74-66 76%    
  Jan 04, 2025 45   San Diego St. W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 07, 2025 113   UNLV W 74-65 79%    
  Jan 11, 2025 47   @ Utah St. L 72-76 34%    
  Jan 14, 2025 187   Wyoming W 77-63 89%    
  Jan 17, 2025 71   @ New Mexico L 78-80 45%    
  Jan 22, 2025 108   @ Colorado St. W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 29, 2025 54   Nevada W 70-68 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 256   Fresno St. W 83-65 94%    
  Feb 04, 2025 113   @ UNLV W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 07, 2025 185   San Jose St. W 78-65 89%    
  Feb 15, 2025 45   @ San Diego St. L 66-71 34%    
  Feb 19, 2025 71   New Mexico W 81-77 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 54   @ Nevada L 67-71 38%    
  Feb 26, 2025 47   Utah St. W 75-73 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 256   @ Fresno St. W 80-68 85%    
  Mar 04, 2025 267   @ Air Force W 72-60 86%    
  Mar 07, 2025 108   Colorado St. W 74-66 77%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.8 6.0 3.4 1.2 0.2 19.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 4.6 7.4 4.6 1.1 0.1 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.4 7.4 3.3 0.4 0.0 18.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.3 6.4 2.5 0.2 16.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.6 4.6 1.5 0.1 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.0 2.4 0.7 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 3.5 6.1 9.1 12.1 14.4 15.1 13.7 10.8 7.1 3.5 1.2 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
18-2 97.7% 3.4    3.1 0.3 0.0
17-3 84.0% 6.0    4.2 1.7 0.1
16-4 53.4% 5.8    2.7 2.4 0.6 0.0
15-5 20.2% 2.8    0.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.0% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.9% 19.9 12.1 5.8 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 99.1% 46.8% 52.3% 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.3%
19-1 1.2% 96.2% 45.0% 51.2% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.2%
18-2 3.5% 86.3% 36.0% 50.3% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 78.6%
17-3 7.1% 68.5% 30.7% 37.9% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.0 2.2 54.6%
16-4 10.8% 51.4% 28.0% 23.4% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 2.2 0.1 5.2 32.6%
15-5 13.7% 31.8% 21.3% 10.5% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.6 0.3 9.3 13.4%
14-6 15.1% 20.1% 15.8% 4.4% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 12.1 5.2%
13-7 14.4% 13.2% 11.5% 1.7% 11.2 0.1 1.3 0.4 12.5 1.9%
12-8 12.1% 9.2% 8.6% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 11.0 0.6%
11-9 9.1% 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 8.6 0.1%
10-10 6.1% 4.0% 3.9% 0.1% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.9 0.1%
9-11 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.4
8-12 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 1.8
7-13 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.8
6-14 0.4% 1.0% 1.0% 15.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.1% 16.0% 10.1% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.8 3.0 5.5 10.5 2.1 0.0 0.0 73.9 12.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.9 12.2 26.5 32.7 18.4 8.2 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 4.2 8.3 16.7 41.7 16.7 12.5 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 4.8 32.1 17.9 10.7 17.9 17.9 3.6