San Francisco
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.5#56
Expected Predictive Rating+10.5#58
Pace67.7#217
Improvement-0.6#231

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#91
First Shot+5.4#48
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#297
Layup/Dunks+0.6#160
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#82
Freethrows+0.7#143
Improvement-1.3#289

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#33
First Shot+3.1#85
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#14
Layups/Dunks-2.1#255
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#185
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#51
Freethrows+1.6#76
Improvement+0.7#134
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 1.9% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.8% 25.1% 13.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.1% 18.7% 8.0%
Average Seed 9.9 9.7 10.2
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.9% 94.8% 91.2%
Conference Champion 5.6% 6.8% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.0% 8.0% 4.2%
First Round15.9% 21.1% 11.1%
Second Round7.3% 10.2% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 3.0% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.1% 0.4%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Away) - 47.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 24 - 36 - 8
Quad 36 - 111 - 9
Quad 411 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 249   Cal Poly W 86-78 94%     1 - 0 +0.1 -3.3 +2.3
  Nov 09, 2024 58   Boise St. W 84-73 62%     2 - 0 +17.3 +16.0 +1.5
  Nov 13, 2024 272   Long Beach St. W 84-54 95%     3 - 0 +21.1 +11.4 +11.6
  Nov 16, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 82-37 98%     4 - 0 +27.8 -0.5 +26.5
  Nov 21, 2024 34   Memphis L 64-68 39%     4 - 1 +8.3 -4.9 +13.2
  Nov 25, 2024 30   Clemson L 55-70 38%     4 - 2 -2.3 -3.2 -1.2
  Nov 26, 2024 172   Fordham W 85-64 83%     5 - 2 +20.2 +21.2 +1.1
  Dec 01, 2024 360   Mercyhurst W 87-59 99%     6 - 2 +10.3 +11.7 +0.5
  Dec 05, 2024 135   Saint Louis W 78-61 85%     7 - 2 +15.4 +1.1 +14.3
  Dec 15, 2024 104   Loyola Chicago W 76-66 68%     8 - 2 +14.8 +2.6 +11.6
  Dec 18, 2024 76   @ Bradley L 71-72 48%    
  Dec 21, 2024 212   Montana W 80-65 92%    
  Dec 28, 2024 189   Loyola Marymount W 75-61 90%    
  Dec 30, 2024 78   Santa Clara W 74-69 69%    
  Jan 02, 2025 264   @ Pacific W 75-63 87%    
  Jan 04, 2025 68   @ Washington St. L 72-73 44%    
  Jan 09, 2025 312   Portland W 81-60 97%    
  Jan 11, 2025 78   @ Santa Clara L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 16, 2025 226   @ Pepperdine W 76-66 82%    
  Jan 18, 2025 67   Oregon St. W 69-65 66%    
  Jan 23, 2025 41   @ St. Mary's L 62-67 32%    
  Jan 25, 2025 315   San Diego W 81-60 97%    
  Feb 01, 2025 68   Washington St. W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 06, 2025 41   St. Mary's W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 189   @ Loyola Marymount W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 13, 2025 3   @ Gonzaga L 67-81 11%    
  Feb 15, 2025 315   @ San Diego W 78-63 92%    
  Feb 20, 2025 264   Pacific W 78-60 95%    
  Feb 27, 2025 67   @ Oregon St. L 66-68 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 3   Gonzaga L 70-78 25%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.8 0.7 0.1 5.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 6.9 8.3 4.2 0.7 21.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.4 8.9 8.3 2.1 0.1 21.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 8.6 6.7 1.1 0.0 19.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.8 5.4 0.8 0.0 16.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.7 0.1 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 4.2 8.1 12.5 17.0 18.0 16.3 11.3 6.4 2.5 0.7 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.1
16-2 72.1% 1.8    1.0 0.8 0.0
15-3 32.7% 2.1    0.7 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 7.8% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 2.5 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 37.2% 62.8% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 95.8% 23.4% 72.4% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.6%
16-2 2.5% 84.8% 23.0% 61.8% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 80.2%
15-3 6.4% 67.7% 19.3% 48.5% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.0 2.1 60.0%
14-4 11.3% 43.4% 13.6% 29.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.4 0.2 6.4 34.4%
13-5 16.3% 22.6% 8.4% 14.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 0.3 12.6 15.6%
12-6 18.0% 9.9% 4.6% 5.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.3 16.2 5.6%
11-7 17.0% 4.5% 2.9% 1.7% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 16.2 1.7%
10-8 12.5% 2.5% 2.0% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.2 0.5%
9-9 8.1% 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 8.0 0.1%
8-10 4.2% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.1%
7-11 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 1.9
6-12 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 18.8% 6.6% 12.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 2.2 4.0 8.2 1.1 0.0 81.2 13.1%