Montana
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#226
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#149
Pace69.4#157
Improvement-3.6#329

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#206
First Shot+1.9#119
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#334
Layup/Dunks+3.0#79
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#169
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#269
Freethrows+1.7#79
Improvement-2.5#307

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#253
First Shot-2.6#256
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#184
Layups/Dunks-3.3#305
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#225
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#106
Freethrows-0.7#236
Improvement-1.1#241
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.3% 11.7% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 63.2% 72.2% 46.2%
.500 or above in Conference 86.2% 92.5% 74.3%
Conference Champion 13.0% 16.6% 6.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 1.4%
First Four1.5% 1.3% 1.9%
First Round9.5% 11.0% 6.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Home) - 65.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 34 - 45 - 11
Quad 411 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 28   @ Oregon L 48-79 4%     0 - 1 -14.9 -13.2 -4.1
  Nov 13, 2024 8   @ Tennessee L 57-92 2%     0 - 2 -13.5 -2.4 -12.0
  Nov 18, 2024 54   @ Utah St. L 83-95 7%     0 - 3 +1.0 +9.6 -7.8
  Nov 24, 2024 340   Denver W 83-73 84%     1 - 3 -4.3 -3.2 -1.7
  Nov 25, 2024 284   Utah Tech W 69-66 72%     2 - 3 -6.9 -5.3 -1.4
  Nov 27, 2024 133   Cal St. Northridge W 83-75 39%     3 - 3 +7.1 +3.2 +3.2
  Dec 04, 2024 114   South Dakota St. W 71-67 35%     4 - 3 +4.2 -5.4 +9.4
  Dec 07, 2024 125   @ St. Thomas L 81-88 20%     4 - 4 -1.8 +6.3 -8.0
  Dec 16, 2024 113   @ Northern Iowa L 76-104 19%     4 - 5 -22.3 +7.5 -30.9
  Dec 21, 2024 75   @ San Francisco L 67-71 10%     4 - 6 +6.1 +5.1 +0.7
  Jan 02, 2025 257   @ Eastern Washington W 92-81 46%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +8.4 +14.9 -6.8
  Jan 04, 2025 246   @ Idaho W 73-71 44%     6 - 6 2 - 0 +0.0 -2.4 +2.4
  Jan 09, 2025 264   Northern Arizona W 81-76 68%     7 - 6 3 - 0 -3.6 +0.0 -3.8
  Jan 11, 2025 166   Northern Colorado L 57-81 47%     7 - 7 3 - 1 -26.9 -20.2 -6.7
  Jan 16, 2025 237   @ Weber St. W 63-59 42%     8 - 7 4 - 1 +2.4 -2.1 +5.1
  Jan 18, 2025 217   @ Idaho St. L 61-86 37%     8 - 8 4 - 2 -25.4 -7.6 -19.5
  Jan 20, 2025 246   Idaho W 76-72 66%    
  Jan 25, 2025 180   Montana St. L 72-73 51%    
  Jan 30, 2025 227   Portland St. W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 01, 2025 337   Sacramento St. W 72-61 84%    
  Feb 06, 2025 166   @ Northern Colorado L 76-82 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 264   @ Northern Arizona L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 13, 2025 217   Idaho St. W 71-69 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 237   Weber St. W 74-71 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 180   @ Montana St. L 69-75 30%    
  Feb 27, 2025 337   @ Sacramento St. W 69-64 67%    
  Mar 01, 2025 227   @ Portland St. L 72-75 40%    
  Mar 03, 2025 257   Eastern Washington W 78-74 67%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 3.0 4.7 3.2 1.3 0.3 13.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 7.4 9.6 5.6 1.3 0.1 24.9 2nd
3rd 0.5 6.3 9.8 3.5 0.3 0.0 20.5 3rd
4th 0.2 3.3 8.6 2.6 0.2 14.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 6.2 3.0 0.1 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.7 3.4 0.2 7.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 2.7 0.4 5.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.7 8.6 13.8 19.0 20.4 16.3 10.6 4.5 1.4 0.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-3 91.4% 1.3    1.1 0.2
14-4 71.6% 3.2    2.2 1.0 0.1
13-5 44.5% 4.7    2.1 2.1 0.5 0.0
12-6 18.6% 3.0    0.6 1.3 1.0 0.2
11-7 2.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.0% 13.0 6.2 4.7 1.7 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.3% 23.1% 23.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.4% 26.4% 26.4% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.0
14-4 4.5% 20.2% 20.2% 14.5 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 3.6
13-5 10.6% 19.4% 19.4% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.3 8.5
12-6 16.3% 13.1% 13.1% 15.3 0.2 1.2 0.8 14.2
11-7 20.4% 11.0% 11.0% 15.5 0.0 1.1 1.1 18.2
10-8 19.0% 7.8% 7.8% 15.7 0.0 0.4 1.1 17.5
9-9 13.8% 5.7% 5.7% 15.9 0.1 0.7 13.0
8-10 8.6% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.3 8.3
7-11 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.7
6-12 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-13 0.2% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.7 4.3 89.7 0.0%