Montana
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#212
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#137
Pace70.9#122
Improvement-0.6#228

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#161
First Shot+2.5#106
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#301
Layup/Dunks+2.9#89
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#158
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#238
Freethrows+1.6#87
Improvement+1.1#91

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#262
First Shot-4.0#307
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#93
Layups/Dunks-4.7#336
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#284
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#108
Freethrows+0.1#180
Improvement-1.7#306
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.0% 18.9% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.1 14.8
.500 or above 56.8% 80.7% 54.7%
.500 or above in Conference 73.4% 84.5% 72.4%
Conference Champion 15.3% 23.2% 14.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 1.4% 3.6%
First Four1.2% 0.4% 1.3%
First Round12.5% 18.8% 12.0%
Second Round0.5% 1.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Away) - 7.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 43 - 10
Quad 412 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 23   @ Oregon L 48-79 5%     0 - 1 -14.0 -13.3 -3.1
  Nov 13, 2024 4   @ Tennessee L 57-92 2%     0 - 2 -12.0 -1.2 -11.5
  Nov 18, 2024 47   @ Utah St. L 83-95 7%     0 - 3 +1.7 +11.1 -8.6
  Nov 24, 2024 325   Denver W 83-73 82%     1 - 3 -2.2 -2.0 -0.8
  Nov 25, 2024 298   Utah Tech W 69-66 77%     2 - 3 -7.3 -5.5 -1.6
  Nov 27, 2024 148   Cal St. Northridge W 83-75 50%     3 - 3 +5.5 +2.8 +2.0
  Dec 04, 2024 123   South Dakota St. W 71-67 42%     4 - 3 +3.5 -5.0 +8.3
  Dec 07, 2024 143   @ St. Thomas L 81-88 27%     4 - 4 -3.2 +6.8 -9.9
  Dec 16, 2024 99   @ Northern Iowa L 76-104 16%     4 - 5 -19.7 +8.8 -29.7
  Dec 21, 2024 56   @ San Francisco L 65-80 8%    
  Jan 02, 2025 251   @ Eastern Washington L 78-79 48%    
  Jan 04, 2025 291   @ Idaho W 75-74 55%    
  Jan 09, 2025 286   Northern Arizona W 80-73 75%    
  Jan 11, 2025 192   Northern Colorado W 80-78 58%    
  Jan 16, 2025 208   @ Weber St. L 72-75 39%    
  Jan 18, 2025 231   @ Idaho St. L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 20, 2025 291   Idaho W 78-71 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 139   Montana St. L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 30, 2025 276   Portland St. W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 329   Sacramento St. W 74-64 83%    
  Feb 06, 2025 192   @ Northern Colorado L 77-81 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 286   @ Northern Arizona W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 13, 2025 231   Idaho St. W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 208   Weber St. W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 139   @ Montana St. L 71-78 27%    
  Feb 27, 2025 329   @ Sacramento St. W 71-67 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 276   @ Portland St. W 78-77 52%    
  Mar 03, 2025 251   Eastern Washington W 82-76 69%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.8 4.4 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 15.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.1 4.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.4 6.4 3.9 1.0 0.1 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 3.0 6.5 3.5 0.5 0.0 13.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 5.5 3.2 0.4 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 2.8 0.4 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.6 7.4 10.2 12.3 13.8 13.6 12.2 9.5 6.3 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 98.1% 1.5    1.4 0.1
15-3 90.0% 3.1    2.6 0.5 0.0
14-4 69.2% 4.4    2.7 1.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 40.3% 3.8    1.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0
12-6 13.3% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.3% 15.3 9.2 4.6 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 42.1% 42.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 41.5% 41.5% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.6% 37.7% 37.7% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0
15-3 3.5% 31.7% 31.7% 13.7 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 2.4
14-4 6.3% 27.7% 27.7% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 4.6
13-5 9.5% 22.6% 22.6% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.1 7.4
12-6 12.2% 17.6% 17.6% 14.8 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.3 10.0
11-7 13.6% 13.6% 13.6% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.4 11.8
10-8 13.8% 10.1% 10.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.5 12.4
9-9 12.3% 7.8% 7.8% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 11.3
8-10 10.2% 4.6% 4.6% 15.9 0.0 0.4 9.7
7-11 7.4% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.3 7.2
6-12 4.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 4.5
5-13 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 2.5
4-14 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.6 5.1 2.8 87.0 0.0%