Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#217
Expected Predictive Rating-4.6#241
Pace62.8#329
Improvement+0.0#181

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#224
First Shot-7.5#350
After Offensive Rebound+5.7#4
Layup/Dunks-4.6#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#154
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#314
Freethrows+1.2#103
Improvement+3.0#37

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#218
First Shot+1.1#141
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#337
Layups/Dunks+3.3#66
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#102
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#266
Freethrows-1.3#278
Improvement-3.0#327
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.1% 13.7% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 40.6% 48.9% 22.1%
.500 or above in Conference 79.5% 86.8% 63.1%
Conference Champion 10.9% 14.0% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.2% 3.3%
First Four2.1% 1.9% 2.6%
First Round11.1% 12.9% 7.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Away) - 69.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 8
Quad 411 - 613 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 64   @ Arizona St. L 48-55 9%     0 - 1 +4.3 -15.4 +19.4
  Nov 07, 2024 61   @ USC L 69-75 9%     0 - 2 +5.8 +5.2 +0.4
  Nov 16, 2024 290   @ San Diego W 78-66 56%     1 - 2 +7.3 -1.2 +7.4
  Nov 18, 2024 309   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 61-62 60%     1 - 3 -6.7 -5.9 -0.9
  Nov 20, 2024 31   @ UCLA L 70-84 5%     1 - 4 +1.7 +15.7 -15.6
  Dec 04, 2024 268   @ South Dakota L 80-94 51%     1 - 5 -17.3 +3.6 -21.5
  Dec 07, 2024 311   Oral Roberts W 71-55 78%     2 - 5 +4.7 -7.3 +12.8
  Dec 18, 2024 140   Utah Valley L 56-70 43%     2 - 6 -15.2 -15.9 +0.9
  Jan 02, 2025 264   @ Northern Arizona W 72-67 50%     3 - 6 1 - 0 +1.9 +0.8 +1.4
  Jan 04, 2025 166   @ Northern Colorado L 92-93 OT 29%     3 - 7 1 - 1 +1.6 +8.8 -7.1
  Jan 11, 2025 237   Weber St. L 69-77 65%     3 - 8 1 - 2 -15.1 -4.7 -11.0
  Jan 16, 2025 180   Montana St. W 70-67 52%     4 - 8 2 - 2 -0.6 +8.0 -8.1
  Jan 18, 2025 226   Montana W 86-61 63%     5 - 8 3 - 2 +18.6 +15.1 +5.2
  Jan 23, 2025 337   @ Sacramento St. W 65-59 69%    
  Jan 25, 2025 227   @ Portland St. L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 30, 2025 257   Eastern Washington W 74-69 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 246   Idaho W 72-68 66%    
  Feb 03, 2025 166   Northern Colorado L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 237   @ Weber St. L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 13, 2025 226   @ Montana L 69-71 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 180   @ Montana St. L 65-70 32%    
  Feb 20, 2025 227   Portland St. W 70-67 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 337   Sacramento St. W 68-57 86%    
  Feb 27, 2025 246   @ Idaho L 69-70 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 257   @ Eastern Washington L 71-72 48%    
  Mar 03, 2025 264   Northern Arizona W 72-67 71%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 2.3 4.0 2.8 1.3 0.2 10.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 6.5 8.7 4.8 1.2 0.2 22.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 5.9 8.3 3.0 0.3 0.0 18.0 3rd
4th 0.1 3.6 8.1 2.4 0.1 14.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 6.3 2.9 0.1 11.0 5th
6th 0.7 4.8 4.0 0.3 9.7 6th
7th 0.3 2.4 3.5 0.6 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.4 0.6 4.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.8 6.0 10.7 15.0 18.0 17.7 13.9 9.1 3.9 1.6 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-3 85.9% 1.3    1.0 0.3
14-4 70.2% 2.8    1.7 1.0 0.1
13-5 43.8% 4.0    1.6 1.9 0.4 0.0
12-6 16.2% 2.3    0.4 1.0 0.6 0.2
11-7 2.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.9% 10.9 4.9 4.3 1.3 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.2% 38.1% 38.1% 12.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 1.6% 30.1% 30.1% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.1
14-4 3.9% 30.5% 30.5% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 2.7
13-5 9.1% 22.9% 22.9% 14.6 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.1 7.0
12-6 13.9% 16.4% 16.4% 15.1 0.2 1.7 0.4 11.7
11-7 17.7% 15.0% 15.0% 15.4 0.0 1.6 1.1 15.1
10-8 18.0% 9.7% 9.7% 15.8 0.4 1.4 16.2
9-9 15.0% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9 14.1
8-10 10.7% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.4 10.4
7-11 6.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.2 5.8
6-12 2.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 0.8% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 15.1 0.1 0.5 1.8 5.3 4.4 87.9 0.0%