Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#231
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#260
Pace62.1#341
Improvement-1.9#294

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#263
First Shot-7.0#346
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#13
Layup/Dunks-4.7#324
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#193
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#288
Freethrows+1.6#89
Improvement+0.5#136

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#188
First Shot+0.1#168
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#237
Layups/Dunks+3.4#70
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#98
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#286
Freethrows-1.6#283
Improvement-2.4#327
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.3% 11.2% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 38.2% 50.5% 26.6%
.500 or above in Conference 61.8% 68.1% 55.9%
Conference Champion 10.6% 13.3% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.8% 4.8% 8.8%
First Four2.3% 2.1% 2.6%
First Round8.2% 10.3% 6.3%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 48.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 411 - 613 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 61   @ Arizona St. L 48-55 8%     0 - 1 +5.1 -15.6 +20.3
  Nov 07, 2024 80   @ USC L 69-75 11%     0 - 2 +3.9 +4.9 -1.3
  Nov 16, 2024 315   @ San Diego W 78-66 58%     1 - 2 +6.2 -1.2 +6.4
  Nov 18, 2024 278   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 61-62 47%     1 - 3 -4.1 -4.1 -0.2
  Nov 20, 2024 17   @ UCLA L 70-84 3%     1 - 4 +4.0 +18.0 -15.6
  Dec 04, 2024 228   @ South Dakota L 80-94 38%     1 - 5 -14.6 +5.6 -20.8
  Dec 07, 2024 293   Oral Roberts W 71-55 72%     2 - 5 +6.1 -4.9 +11.8
  Dec 18, 2024 165   Utah Valley L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 02, 2025 286   @ Northern Arizona L 68-69 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 192   @ Northern Colorado L 69-74 31%    
  Jan 11, 2025 208   Weber St. W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 16, 2025 139   Montana St. L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 18, 2025 212   Montana W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 23, 2025 329   @ Sacramento St. W 63-60 62%    
  Jan 25, 2025 276   @ Portland St. L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 30, 2025 251   Eastern Washington W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 291   Idaho W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 03, 2025 192   Northern Colorado W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 208   @ Weber St. L 64-68 35%    
  Feb 13, 2025 212   @ Montana L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 139   @ Montana St. L 63-71 24%    
  Feb 20, 2025 276   Portland St. W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 22, 2025 329   Sacramento St. W 66-57 79%    
  Feb 27, 2025 291   @ Idaho W 68-67 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 251   @ Eastern Washington L 70-72 44%    
  Mar 03, 2025 286   Northern Arizona W 72-66 70%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 10.6 1st
2nd 0.4 2.7 4.7 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.8 3.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 3.1 5.9 2.9 0.4 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 5.8 3.1 0.3 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 5.4 3.2 0.3 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.6 3.1 0.4 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.8 4.7 7.1 9.9 11.8 12.9 12.9 11.9 9.7 6.6 4.2 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 98.8% 1.0    1.0 0.0
15-3 89.5% 2.0    1.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 71.4% 3.0    2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 40.9% 2.7    1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 13.7% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.6% 10.6 6.3 3.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 52.4% 52.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 41.8% 41.8% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.0% 35.2% 35.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
15-3 2.3% 33.8% 33.8% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5
14-4 4.2% 27.1% 27.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 3.1
13-5 6.6% 20.1% 20.1% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 5.2
12-6 9.7% 15.0% 15.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.5 8.2
11-7 11.9% 11.7% 11.7% 15.6 0.0 0.6 0.8 10.5
10-8 12.9% 8.8% 8.8% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 11.8
9-9 12.9% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8 12.1
8-10 11.8% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.4 11.4
7-11 9.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 9.6
6-12 7.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 7.0
5-13 4.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 4.7
4-14 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-15 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.1 4.0 90.7 0.0%