IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.6	#288
Expected Predictive Rating	-2.0	#228

Pace	69.9	#165
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.5	#213

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.0	#333

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.3%	5.8%	3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.2	14.9	15.4

.500 or above	29.3%	43.7%	20.6%
.500 or above in Conference	34.9%	44.3%	29.2%
Conference Champion	4.5%	6.9%	3.1%
Last Place in Conference	23.2%	16.2%	27.4%

First Four	1.2%	1.1%	1.3%
First Round	3.6%	5.1%	2.7%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Away) - 37.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	2 - 7	2 - 9
Quad 4	10 - 8	12 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2024	70	@ Stanford	L	64-90	6%	0 - 1			-15.0	+4.4	-23.1
Nov 14, 2024	284	@ Pacific	L	73-76	38%
Nov 22, 2024	327	Incarnate Word	W	82-76	71%
Nov 26, 2024	298	Eastern Michigan	W	71-70	51%
Nov 27, 2024	358	@ Houston Christian	W	80-75	66%
Dec 04, 2024	245	@ Oral Roberts	L	73-78	31%
Dec 07, 2024	252	South Dakota	W	78-77	53%
Dec 14, 2024	229	@ Pepperdine	L	72-78	29%
Dec 21, 2024	214	@ Southern Utah	L	73-80	28%
Jan 02, 2025	265	Idaho St.	W	69-67	56%
Jan 04, 2025	233	Weber St.	L	71-72	49%
Jan 09, 2025	218	@ Montana	L	70-77	28%
Jan 11, 2025	165	@ Montana St.	L	71-81	20%
Jan 16, 2025	296	Sacramento St.	W	69-66	62%
Jan 18, 2025	209	Portland St.	L	81-82	47%
Jan 23, 2025	228	@ Eastern Washington	L	77-83	29%
Jan 25, 2025	282	@ Idaho	L	71-74	39%
Feb 01, 2025	192	@ Northern Colorado	L	74-82	26%
Feb 03, 2025	233	@ Weber St.	L	69-75	30%
Feb 06, 2025	165	Montana St.	L	74-78	38%
Feb 08, 2025	218	Montana	L	73-74	48%
Feb 13, 2025	209	@ Portland St.	L	78-85	28%
Feb 15, 2025	296	@ Sacramento St.	L	66-69	41%
Feb 20, 2025	282	Idaho	W	74-71	59%
Feb 22, 2025	228	Eastern Washington	L	80-81	49%
Mar 01, 2025	192	Northern Colorado	L	77-79	44%
Mar 03, 2025	265	@ Idaho St.	L	66-70	36%
Projected Record						11 - 16	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.2	0.6	1.2	1.1	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0		4.5	1st
2nd										0.0	0.3	1.2	2.2	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0				5.8	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	2.0	3.1	1.4	0.3	0.0	0.0					7.1	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.2	3.7	1.7	0.2								8.1	4th
5th							0.0	0.2	2.3	4.4	2.0	0.2	0.0								9.1	5th
6th						0.0	0.3	2.5	5.0	2.5	0.3										10.5	6th
7th					0.0	0.4	2.6	5.3	3.0	0.3											11.7	7th
8th				0.0	0.6	3.0	5.4	3.2	0.5	0.0											12.7	8th
9th		0.0	0.3	1.5	4.1	5.1	2.8	0.5	0.0												14.3	9th
10th	0.5	1.9	3.5	4.6	3.9	1.6	0.3	0.0													16.3	10th

Total	0.5	1.9	3.8	6.1	8.6	10.2	11.4	11.6	11.0	9.6	8.3	6.3	4.4	2.9	1.7	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	98.4%	0.4		0.4	0.0
15-3	88.6%	0.9		0.7	0.1	0.0
14-4	66.8%	1.1		0.7	0.4	0.0
13-5	39.4%	1.2		0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0
12-6	14.5%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	2.4%	0.2			0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.5%	4.5		2.5	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%															0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0
17-1	0.1%		40.6%	40.6%		12.8													0.0	0.0				0.1
16-2	0.4%		40.3%	40.3%		13.4													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.3
15-3	1.0%		29.8%	29.8%		14.0													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.7
14-4	1.7%		25.4%	25.4%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.3
13-5	2.9%		15.7%	15.7%		14.8													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	2.5
12-6	4.4%		13.1%	13.1%		15.2															0.1	0.3	0.2	3.8
11-7	6.3%		9.4%	9.4%		15.5															0.0	0.3	0.3	5.7
10-8	8.3%		7.5%	7.5%		15.6															0.0	0.2	0.4	7.7
9-9	9.6%		4.7%	4.7%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.4	9.2
8-10	11.0%		2.8%	2.8%		16.0																0.0	0.3	10.7
7-11	11.6%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.2	11.5
6-12	11.4%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	11.4
5-13	10.2%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	10.1
4-14	8.6%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	8.6
3-15	6.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.1
2-16	3.8%																							3.8
1-17	1.9%																							1.9
0-18	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		4.3%	4.3%	0.0%	15.2										0.0		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.3	2.1	95.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%