Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#286
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#248
Pace68.1#206
Improvement+0.0#184

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#213
First Shot-4.7#311
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#28
Layup/Dunks-2.0#255
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#220
Freethrows-4.1#352
Improvement+0.9#109

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#329
First Shot-6.0#349
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#117
Layups/Dunks-2.0#253
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#147
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#319
Freethrows-0.6#234
Improvement-0.9#259
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 5.2% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 28.5% 46.2% 22.6%
.500 or above in Conference 34.8% 44.2% 31.8%
Conference Champion 3.0% 4.5% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 18.2% 12.4% 20.2%
First Four1.6% 1.7% 1.6%
First Round2.9% 4.3% 2.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Away) - 24.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 62 - 8
Quad 410 - 912 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2024 87   @ Stanford L 64-90 8%     0 - 1 -16.8 +3.6 -24.1
  Nov 14, 2024 264   @ Pacific W 60-57 35%     1 - 1 +0.4 -8.8 +9.4
  Nov 22, 2024 307   Incarnate Word W 75-74 66%     2 - 1 -9.8 -0.6 -9.1
  Nov 26, 2024 317   Eastern Michigan L 68-72 58%     2 - 2 -12.8 -8.6 -4.2
  Nov 27, 2024 356   @ Houston Christian W 74-71 63%     3 - 2 -7.1 +1.2 -8.1
  Dec 04, 2024 293   @ Oral Roberts L 76-83 39%     3 - 3 -10.9 +1.2 -12.4
  Dec 07, 2024 228   South Dakota W 95-82 50%     4 - 3 +6.4 +7.0 -1.6
  Dec 14, 2024 226   @ Pepperdine L 76-86 27%     4 - 4 -10.5 +2.8 -13.1
  Dec 21, 2024 210   @ Southern Utah L 73-80 25%    
  Jan 02, 2025 231   Idaho St. W 69-68 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 208   Weber St. L 72-73 45%    
  Jan 09, 2025 212   @ Montana L 73-80 25%    
  Jan 11, 2025 139   @ Montana St. L 68-79 16%    
  Jan 16, 2025 329   Sacramento St. W 71-65 72%    
  Jan 18, 2025 276   Portland St. W 78-76 58%    
  Jan 23, 2025 251   @ Eastern Washington L 75-80 34%    
  Jan 25, 2025 291   @ Idaho L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 192   @ Northern Colorado L 74-82 23%    
  Feb 03, 2025 208   @ Weber St. L 69-76 25%    
  Feb 06, 2025 139   Montana St. L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 08, 2025 212   Montana L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 13, 2025 276   @ Portland St. L 75-79 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 329   @ Sacramento St. W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 20, 2025 291   Idaho W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 22, 2025 251   Eastern Washington W 78-77 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 192   Northern Colorado L 77-79 42%    
  Mar 03, 2025 231   @ Idaho St. L 66-72 30%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.0 1st
2nd 0.3 1.5 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.2 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.3 2.6 5.3 2.1 0.2 10.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 6.1 3.0 0.3 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.4 3.8 0.4 0.0 13.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.1 4.0 0.6 0.0 14.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.7 5.5 3.3 0.6 0.0 14.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.9 3.3 3.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 11.4 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.1 4.5 7.4 10.5 12.7 13.8 13.4 11.7 9.1 6.3 3.9 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 92.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 70.9% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 44.7% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 15.0% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 25.0% 25.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 30.2% 30.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.0% 19.7% 19.7% 14.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-5 2.3% 16.4% 16.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.9
12-6 3.9% 10.7% 10.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.5
11-7 6.3% 8.4% 8.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 5.8
10-8 9.1% 6.7% 6.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 8.5
9-9 11.7% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.1 0.5 11.1
8-10 13.4% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4 13.0
7-11 13.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 13.6
6-12 12.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 12.5
5-13 10.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.4
4-14 7.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.4
3-15 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.5
2-16 2.1% 2.1
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.5 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%