Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#264
Expected Predictive Rating-5.2#255
Pace67.2#205
Improvement+0.5#160

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#238
First Shot-5.6#324
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#22
Layup/Dunks-3.0#291
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#29
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#227
Freethrows-4.4#360
Improvement-1.1#237

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#259
First Shot-4.6#316
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#68
Layups/Dunks-0.6#199
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#285
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#274
Freethrows-0.6#235
Improvement+1.7#96
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 3.8% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 14.4% 21.9% 2.3%
.500 or above in Conference 8.5% 13.9% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four1.7% 2.0% 1.2%
First Round2.1% 2.8% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 61.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 62 - 8
Quad 411 - 813 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2024 88   @ Stanford L 64-90 10%     0 - 1 -17.1 +3.8 -24.7
  Nov 14, 2024 277   @ Pacific W 60-57 44%     1 - 1 -0.9 -11.3 +10.6
  Nov 22, 2024 281   Incarnate Word W 75-74 64%     2 - 1 -8.2 +1.2 -9.4
  Nov 26, 2024 291   Eastern Michigan L 68-72 56%     2 - 2 -11.1 -8.4 -2.8
  Nov 27, 2024 295   @ Houston Christian W 74-71 48%     3 - 2 -1.9 +4.6 -6.3
  Dec 04, 2024 322   @ Oral Roberts L 76-83 56%     3 - 3 -13.9 -1.2 -12.9
  Dec 07, 2024 243   South Dakota W 95-82 56%     4 - 3 +6.0 +7.3 -2.3
  Dec 14, 2024 226   @ Pepperdine L 76-86 33%     4 - 4 -11.0 +1.8 -12.7
  Dec 21, 2024 282   @ Southern Utah W 83-75 45%     5 - 4 +3.9 +7.3 -3.6
  Jan 02, 2025 229   Idaho St. L 67-72 53%     5 - 5 0 - 1 -11.2 -6.0 -5.5
  Jan 04, 2025 297   Weber St. W 80-77 67%     6 - 5 1 - 1 -7.1 +6.5 -13.5
  Jan 09, 2025 182   @ Montana L 76-81 26%     6 - 6 1 - 2 -3.6 -1.6 -1.9
  Jan 11, 2025 188   @ Montana St. L 53-58 27%     6 - 7 1 - 3 -4.0 -19.7 +15.8
  Jan 16, 2025 332   Sacramento St. W 77-53 77%     7 - 7 2 - 3 +10.7 +0.6 +10.5
  Jan 18, 2025 201   Portland St. L 69-80 47%     7 - 8 2 - 4 -15.7 +0.2 -16.6
  Jan 23, 2025 265   @ Eastern Washington W 70-61 40%     8 - 8 3 - 4 +6.1 +1.6 +5.2
  Jan 25, 2025 253   @ Idaho W 80-72 39%     9 - 8 4 - 4 +5.3 +9.2 -3.2
  Feb 01, 2025 151   @ Northern Colorado L 69-87 21%     9 - 9 4 - 5 -14.8 -3.8 -11.3
  Feb 03, 2025 297   @ Weber St. L 73-77 48%     9 - 10 4 - 6 -9.1 -5.6 -3.3
  Feb 06, 2025 188   Montana St. W 69-64 45%     10 - 10 5 - 6 +0.9 +3.2 -1.8
  Feb 08, 2025 182   Montana L 80-83 43%     10 - 11 5 - 7 -6.7 +12.4 -19.5
  Feb 13, 2025 201   @ Portland St. L 46-58 29%     10 - 12 5 - 8 -11.6 -17.7 +4.3
  Feb 15, 2025 332   @ Sacramento St. W 65-61 60%     11 - 12 6 - 8 -4.2 -6.4 +2.4
  Feb 20, 2025 253   Idaho L 78-83 59%     11 - 13 6 - 9 -12.7 +0.7 -13.7
  Feb 22, 2025 265   Eastern Washington W 75-72 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 151   Northern Colorado L 75-79 39%    
  Mar 03, 2025 229   @ Idaho St. L 69-73 32%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 2.8 4th
5th 3.1 4.3 7.4 5th
6th 1.7 16.4 1.4 19.5 6th
7th 16.7 12.1 28.8 7th
8th 16.8 23.5 0.8 41.2 8th
9th 0.3 0.3 9th
10th 10th
Total 17.1 41.9 32.5 8.5 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 8.5% 7.7% 7.7% 15.5 0.3 0.3 7.9
8-10 32.5% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.1 1.1 31.3
7-11 41.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.9 41.0
6-12 17.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 16.9
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 15.9 0.4 2.5 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 15.5 48.5 51.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.5%
Lose Out 9.1%