Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#281
Expected Predictive Rating-8.4#303
Pace62.8#324
Improvement+0.8#152

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#215
First Shot-0.5#192
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#252
Layup/Dunks-3.8#312
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#19
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#101
Freethrows-2.8#327
Improvement-3.3#321

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#322
First Shot-5.6#340
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#137
Layups/Dunks-1.3#227
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#6
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#320
Freethrows-3.7#356
Improvement+4.1#15
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 16.0
.500 or above 2.3% 4.1% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 9.7% 17.8% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Home) - 54.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 410 - 811 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 158   @ California Baptist L 78-83 19%     0 - 1 -2.2 +10.0 -12.4
  Nov 12, 2024 356   Prairie View W 84-81 82%     1 - 1 -13.3 +1.3 -14.7
  Nov 16, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 92-64 92%     2 - 1 +5.7 +11.7 -4.8
  Nov 22, 2024 264   @ Northern Arizona L 74-75 36%     2 - 2 -3.9 +4.8 -8.8
  Nov 25, 2024 133   @ South Alabama L 63-84 16%     2 - 3 -16.9 -0.9 -17.5
  Nov 27, 2024 351   Western Illinois W 86-75 73%     3 - 3 -1.9 +11.3 -12.6
  Dec 05, 2024 272   Northwestern St. L 70-72 58%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -10.8 +3.6 -14.7
  Dec 07, 2024 339   Texas A&M - Commerce W 65-53 76%     4 - 4 1 - 1 -2.0 -6.8 +5.9
  Dec 10, 2024 2   @ Duke L 46-72 1%     4 - 5 +0.1 -9.1 +5.8
  Jan 04, 2025 249   @ Stephen F. Austin W 55-49 34%     5 - 5 2 - 1 +3.7 -5.8 +10.4
  Jan 06, 2025 194   @ Lamar L 58-72 24%     5 - 6 2 - 2 -13.3 -7.3 -7.3
  Jan 11, 2025 295   @ Houston Christian L 76-81 43%     5 - 7 2 - 3 -9.9 +10.4 -20.9
  Jan 13, 2025 192   Nicholls St. L 82-88 41%     5 - 8 2 - 4 -10.4 +8.0 -18.5
  Jan 18, 2025 199   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 63-69 42%     5 - 9 2 - 5 -10.7 -13.7 +3.3
  Jan 20, 2025 262   UT Rio Grande Valley L 78-85 55%     5 - 10 2 - 6 -15.0 +5.5 -20.8
  Jan 25, 2025 213   @ SE Louisiana L 63-86 26%     5 - 11 2 - 7 -23.1 -9.3 -13.8
  Jan 27, 2025 353   @ New Orleans W 74-58 65%     6 - 11 3 - 7 +5.4 -4.9 +10.2
  Feb 01, 2025 295   Houston Christian W 74-64 63%     7 - 11 4 - 7 +0.0 +7.4 -5.8
  Feb 03, 2025 86   @ McNeese St. L 65-67 8%     7 - 12 4 - 8 +7.2 +9.0 -2.2
  Feb 08, 2025 213   SE Louisiana L 66-71 44%     7 - 13 4 - 9 -10.2 -5.6 -4.9
  Feb 10, 2025 353   New Orleans W 75-65 80%     8 - 13 5 - 9 -5.7 +3.0 -7.5
  Feb 15, 2025 199   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 55-69 25%     8 - 14 5 - 10 -13.6 -6.7 -9.5
  Feb 17, 2025 262   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 66-60 36%     9 - 14 6 - 10 +3.1 -3.5 +7.0
  Feb 22, 2025 249   Stephen F. Austin W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 24, 2025 194   Lamar L 67-69 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 339   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 70-68 57%    
  Mar 03, 2025 272   Northwestern St. W 68-66 60%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.3 0.3 5th
6th 2.7 5.9 8.6 6th
7th 1.4 15.2 3.3 19.9 7th
8th 0.6 16.4 9.6 0.2 26.8 8th
9th 0.4 9.3 14.9 0.6 25.2 9th
10th 5.2 11.6 2.3 19.2 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 5.6 21.5 35.0 28.2 9.7 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 9.7% 1.1% 1.1% 15.3 0.1 0.0 9.6
9-11 28.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 27.9
8-12 35.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 35.0
7-13 21.5% 21.5
6-14 5.6% 5.6
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.7 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%
Lose Out 5.6%