Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
86 McNeese St. 66.8%   13   19 - 6 15 - 1 22 - 7 18 - 2 +6.6      +3.7 82 +3.0 94 63.6 301 +6.3 83 +9.6 1
192 Nicholls St. 5.8%   13 - 11 10 - 6 15 - 13 12 - 8 -1.9      -0.9 198 -1.0 199 69.3 142 -1.2 182 -1.9 4
194 Lamar 11.7%   14 - 10 12 - 4 16 - 12 14 - 6 -1.9      -2.9 252 +1.0 143 65.0 266 -1.0 180 +1.8 2
199 TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.2%   13 - 11 10 - 6 15 - 13 12 - 8 -2.1      -1.9 226 -0.2 181 70.5 118 -2.7 210 -2.1 5
213 SE Louisiana 8.1%   15 - 10 11 - 5 17 - 12 13 - 7 -2.6      -1.8 224 -0.8 195 68.2 181 -0.9 176 +0.1 3
249 Stephen F. Austin 0.7%   11 - 13 7 - 9 13 - 15 9 - 11 -4.9      -6.9 340 +2.0 110 67.4 199 -5.0 251 -6.9 8
262 UT Rio Grande Valley 0.1%   10 - 13 6 - 10 12 - 15 8 - 12 -5.5      -2.9 253 -2.5 245 73.9 49 -5.8 265 -7.8 9
272 Northwestern St. 0.8%   9 - 15 8 - 8 11 - 17 10 - 10 -6.3      -4.7 306 -1.6 218 62.9 320 -5.0 252 -4.0 6
281 Incarnate Word 0.4%   9 - 14 6 - 10 11 - 16 8 - 12 -6.7      -1.5 215 -5.2 322 62.8 324 -8.4 303 -8.6 10
295 Houston Christian 0.3%   9 - 16 8 - 8 11 - 18 10 - 10 -7.4      -3.2 264 -4.2 300 63.2 309 -7.1 288 -4.8 7
339 Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0%   3 - 22 1 - 15 5 - 26 2 - 18 -11.5      -7.4 343 -4.1 298 66.6 222 -14.4 350 -19.8 12
353 New Orleans 0.0%   4 - 23 2 - 14 5 - 26 3 - 17 -13.2      -6.0 327 -7.2 352 72.9 60 -12.5 336 -15.2 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.0 100.0 0.0
Nicholls St. 3.9 13.1 21.2 36.7 25.7 3.1 0.2
Lamar 2.3 0.4 75.5 17.7 5.8 0.6
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.1 6.8 20.2 34.7 35.2 2.9 0.1
SE Louisiana 2.7 43.5 42.6 11.6 2.2 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 7.9 0.1 1.4 12.0 25.7 30.1 21.1 9.5
UT Rio Grande Valley 8.9 0.1 1.2 7.8 21.9 37.9 31.1
Northwestern St. 6.3 0.0 0.6 3.8 13.9 45.3 26.0 8.5 1.7 0.2
Incarnate Word 8.3 0.3 8.6 19.9 26.8 25.2 19.2
Houston Christian 6.5 0.0 0.3 2.7 12.2 38.6 30.5 12.4 3.0 0.3
Texas A&M - Commerce 11.6 45.0 55.0
New Orleans 11.2 0.0 0.2 76.8 23.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
McNeese St. 18 - 2 0.1 1.3 9.9 37.1 51.7
Nicholls St. 12 - 8 3.3 19.9 35.9 31.0 10.0
Lamar 14 - 6 5.5 23.0 37.1 26.9 7.5
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 8 2.1 22.9 45.8 25.6 3.6
SE Louisiana 13 - 7 1.5 13.6 35.6 36.4 12.9
Stephen F. Austin 9 - 11 13.8 35.7 35.1 14.0 1.4
UT Rio Grande Valley 8 - 12 5.7 35.9 42.3 14.8 1.3
Northwestern St. 10 - 10 6.5 26.0 37.9 23.8 5.7
Incarnate Word 8 - 12 5.6 21.5 35.0 28.2 9.7
Houston Christian 10 - 10 10.0 30.1 35.1 20.3 4.6
Texas A&M - Commerce 2 - 18 16.3 36.4 32.7 12.9 1.6
New Orleans 3 - 17 23.4 43.5 26.7 5.9 0.5




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 100.0% 99.6 0.4
Nicholls St.
Lamar 0.4% 0.0 0.4
TX A&M Corpus Christi
SE Louisiana
Stephen F. Austin
UT Rio Grande Valley
Northwestern St.
Incarnate Word
Houston Christian
Texas A&M - Commerce
New Orleans


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 66.8% 66.8% 0.0% 13   4.6 43.8 16.8 1.5 33.2 0.0%
Nicholls St. 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.9 0.7 94.2 0.0%
Lamar 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.4 3.0 6.4 2.0 88.3 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.0 0.6 94.8 0.0%
SE Louisiana 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.8 1.3 91.9 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 99.3 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 99.3 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
New Orleans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 66.8% 0.0% 66.8% 10.9% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 5.8% 0.1% 5.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 11.7% 0.3% 11.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.2% 0.1% 5.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 8.1% 0.2% 8.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.0% 1.0 1.0 99.0
2nd Round 11.5% 0.1 88.5 11.5
Sweet Sixteen 2.3% 0.0 97.8 2.3
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0