Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
91 McNeese St. 51.0%   13   1 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 7 17 - 3 +5.6      +2.9 100 +2.7 98 64.7 308 +1.1 177 0.0 1
182 Stephen F. Austin 12.6%   0 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 12 13 - 7 -1.0      -3.5 275 +2.5 102 63.5 327 -6.1 273 0.0 1
191 UT Rio Grande Valley 11.3%   2 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 11 13 - 7 -1.4      +1.2 142 -2.6 258 76.6 36 +1.2 175 0.0 1
212 TX A&M Corpus Christi 9.0%   0 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 12 - 8 -2.5      -1.2 207 -1.3 216 78.8 19 -5.3 261 0.0 1
220 Nicholls St. 7.6%   1 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 14 12 - 8 -3.0      -2.0 231 -0.9 196 66.3 270 -2.8 221 0.0 1
271 SE Louisiana 3.5%   1 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 10 -5.7      -3.4 272 -2.3 243 67.9 229 +0.1 185 0.0 1
290 Lamar 2.3%   0 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 17 9 - 11 -6.8      -2.1 234 -4.7 322 70.1 157 -8.9 295 0.0 1
308 Incarnate Word 1.4%   2 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 15 9 - 11 -8.1      -1.1 204 -7.0 354 69.5 170 -5.5 263 0.0 1
316 Northwestern St. 1.1%   0 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 18 9 - 11 -8.5      -4.3 298 -4.1 308 68.6 200 -5.8 269 0.0 1
352 Texas A&M - Commerce 0.1%   1 - 2 0 - 0 8 - 23 6 - 14 -13.0      -8.1 354 -5.0 329 68.1 218 +3.2 137 0.0 1
357 Houston Christian 0.1%   0 - 2 0 - 0 6 - 23 5 - 15 -14.2      -6.3 341 -7.9 362 72.5 93 +3.4 131 0.0 1
358 New Orleans 0.0%   1 - 4 0 - 0 6 - 25 5 - 15 -14.2      -7.5 349 -6.8 351 76.1 41 -14.8 341 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.6 69.8 16.6 7.0 3.3 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 3.9 13.0 21.8 18.0 13.9 10.8 8.2 5.7 4.1 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.9 11.3 20.8 18.2 14.9 11.7 8.9 6.2 4.0 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.4 8.8 16.5 16.4 14.6 12.6 10.6 7.9 5.7 3.7 1.9 0.9 0.3
Nicholls St. 4.7 7.0 13.9 15.3 15.1 13.3 11.8 8.9 6.6 4.4 2.3 1.0 0.4
SE Louisiana 5.8 3.2 8.0 10.7 12.4 13.1 13.2 12.6 10.4 7.7 4.8 2.7 1.1
Lamar 6.7 1.8 5.1 7.2 8.9 10.7 12.2 12.9 12.9 11.8 8.7 5.4 2.4
Incarnate Word 6.7 1.2 5.0 7.4 9.6 11.2 12.4 12.9 12.8 11.1 8.4 5.5 2.6
Northwestern St. 7.4 1.0 2.9 4.7 7.1 9.2 11.3 13.0 13.7 13.7 11.1 8.0 4.2
Texas A&M - Commerce 9.5 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.1 4.7 7.1 10.4 14.5 18.8 20.2 18.2
Houston Christian 9.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.4 3.6 5.6 8.5 12.6 17.3 21.7 26.1
New Orleans 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.7 7.9 12.5 18.8 24.3 26.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
McNeese St. 17 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 4.0 6.4 9.9 13.9 17.6 18.9 16.1 8.7
Stephen F. Austin 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.5 5.4 7.4 9.7 11.5 12.7 13.2 11.9 9.3 6.1 3.4 1.2 0.3
UT Rio Grande Valley 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.6 5.6 8.3 10.3 12.2 14.0 13.2 11.3 8.5 5.3 2.6 1.0 0.2
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.2 5.1 7.5 9.6 11.4 12.6 12.3 11.6 9.4 6.5 4.0 2.0 0.7 0.2
Nicholls St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.9 6.3 8.3 10.7 12.2 13.0 12.5 10.5 8.1 5.3 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.1
SE Louisiana 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.9 7.1 9.5 11.5 12.1 12.2 11.4 9.3 7.0 4.7 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Lamar 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.6 5.5 7.9 10.1 11.5 12.1 11.6 10.5 8.4 6.6 4.4 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Incarnate Word 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.5 5.3 7.6 9.8 11.7 11.9 12.1 10.4 8.9 6.7 4.5 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.7 5.0 7.8 9.9 11.5 12.4 12.1 10.8 8.8 7.0 4.4 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 6 - 14 0.8 3.2 6.8 10.2 13.0 14.2 13.5 12.0 9.3 6.6 4.6 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 5 - 15 1.8 5.5 9.3 12.9 14.0 14.0 12.0 9.8 7.8 5.2 3.3 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 5 - 15 1.6 5.2 9.7 13.6 15.3 15.1 13.1 10.0 6.9 4.4 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 69.8% 58.2 9.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 13.0% 7.9 4.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 11.3% 6.5 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8.8% 5.0 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nicholls St. 7.0% 3.8 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
SE Louisiana 3.2% 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lamar 1.8% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Incarnate Word 1.2% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 1.0% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 51.0% 51.0% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 3.8 15.3 15.9 9.7 3.5 0.7 49.0 0.1%
Stephen F. Austin 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 3.9 3.3 1.7 87.4 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.7 3.5 1.3 88.7 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.5 3.1 2.0 91.0 0.0%
Nicholls St. 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.7 1.6 92.4 0.0%
SE Louisiana 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.2 96.5 0.0%
Lamar 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 97.7 0.0%
Incarnate Word 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 98.6 0.0%
Northwestern St. 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 98.9 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
New Orleans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 51.0% 0.2% 50.9% 10.2% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 12.6% 0.6% 12.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 11.3% 0.4% 11.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 9.0% 0.7% 8.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 7.6% 0.6% 7.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 3.5% 0.5% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 2.3% 0.6% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 1.4% 0.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 1.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 97.8% 1.0 2.2 97.8 0.0
2nd Round 13.0% 0.1 87.0 13.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4
Elite Eight 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0