Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
92 McNeese St. 55.7%   13   3 - 5 0 - 0 21 - 8 17 - 3 +6.1      +3.0 96 +3.1 96 64.7 286 +2.4 134 0.0 4
175 Lamar 13.2%   4 - 5 2 - 0 16 - 12 14 - 6 -0.9      -2.0 235 +1.2 135 66.5 246 -2.4 206 +15.9 1
186 TX A&M Corpus Christi 9.7%   4 - 5 1 - 1 15 - 13 12 - 8 -1.3      -0.8 192 -0.5 184 70.7 128 -4.8 246 -4.7 5
217 Stephen F. Austin 6.1%   3 - 6 0 - 2 14 - 14 11 - 9 -2.6      -6.6 344 +4.1 75 64.6 287 -5.2 255 -14.7 9
227 UT Rio Grande Valley 4.8%   5 - 4 1 - 1 15 - 12 11 - 9 -3.5      -0.8 191 -2.7 256 76.5 27 +0.1 166 -4.7 5
228 SE Louisiana 4.6%   4 - 6 0 - 1 15 - 14 11 - 9 -3.6      -4.8 305 +1.2 133 68.2 203 -3.6 230 -16.7 10
241 Nicholls St. 3.7%   4 - 5 2 - 0 13 - 15 11 - 9 -4.5      -3.0 255 -1.5 217 70.1 151 -2.0 200 +5.9 3
292 Northwestern St. 1.4%   3 - 6 2 - 0 11 - 17 10 - 10 -6.9      -4.2 292 -2.7 254 63.8 311 -4.4 239 +8.7 2
304 Incarnate Word 0.8%   4 - 5 1 - 1 11 - 16 8 - 12 -7.7      -1.0 198 -6.8 351 64.7 285 -9.0 314 -12.8 7
345 New Orleans 0.1%   2 - 8 0 - 1 8 - 23 6 - 14 -11.9      -6.0 338 -5.9 346 73.7 63 -8.6 307 -16.7 10
349 Houston Christian 0.1%   2 - 8 1 - 1 7 - 22 6 - 14 -12.2      -5.0 314 -7.1 354 64.3 301 -14.0 345 -12.8 7
353 Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0%   2 - 8 0 - 2 7 - 24 5 - 15 -12.6      -7.9 355 -4.8 319 67.3 224 -10.5 324 -22.6 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.4 77.3 13.6 5.1 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lamar 2.9 18.5 34.4 18.6 11.5 7.0 4.6 2.9 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.2 6.9 19.1 20.2 16.0 12.3 9.5 7.0 4.5 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 5.4 2.2 9.6 13.1 14.7 14.9 13.4 11.5 9.1 6.4 3.3 1.5 0.4
UT Rio Grande Valley 5.4 2.5 9.3 13.1 14.2 14.4 13.3 11.9 9.6 6.7 3.4 1.3 0.4
SE Louisiana 5.3 3.2 10.6 13.7 14.4 13.8 13.1 10.8 8.8 6.3 3.4 1.5 0.5
Nicholls St. 5.5 3.0 10.0 12.0 13.3 13.3 13.2 12.3 10.1 7.5 3.6 1.3 0.4
Northwestern St. 6.3 1.4 5.5 8.3 10.5 12.4 14.0 14.2 13.9 10.5 6.0 2.6 0.9
Incarnate Word 7.5 0.3 2.6 4.3 6.7 8.3 11.1 13.1 15.2 16.6 11.9 6.9 2.9
New Orleans 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.2 5.0 8.5 13.5 21.5 22.8 21.9
Houston Christian 9.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.5 8.2 13.3 22.8 25.7 19.5
Texas A&M - Commerce 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.6 5.2 9.8 18.6 27.5 33.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
McNeese St. 17 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.7 6.3 10.3 14.5 19.1 19.9 15.9 7.2
Lamar 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.6 4.7 7.6 11.3 14.6 15.7 15.6 12.3 8.0 4.0 1.4 0.3
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.2 6.7 10.1 13.0 15.4 15.4 13.0 9.5 5.7 2.5 0.8 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.4 8.3 11.7 14.4 15.3 14.4 11.5 7.7 4.4 1.5 0.4 0.1
UT Rio Grande Valley 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.7 8.7 12.2 14.0 15.3 13.8 11.0 7.6 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
SE Louisiana 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.0 5.2 7.9 11.3 13.6 14.5 13.8 11.5 8.3 5.0 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
Nicholls St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.2 6.3 9.2 12.3 14.0 14.5 12.9 10.3 7.2 4.4 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Northwestern St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.8 5.7 9.1 12.3 14.8 15.1 13.7 10.3 7.0 4.1 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Incarnate Word 8 - 12 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.8 7.0 10.5 13.3 14.3 14.4 12.6 9.2 6.1 3.7 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
New Orleans 6 - 14 0.6 2.7 6.7 10.8 14.6 16.4 15.1 12.4 8.7 5.8 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 6 - 14 1.8 6.2 11.3 16.1 17.2 16.1 12.2 8.7 5.2 2.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 5 - 15 1.3 5.1 10.7 15.6 17.9 16.6 13.2 9.1 5.4 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 77.3% 66.5 9.2 1.5 0.2 0.0
Lamar 18.5% 11.2 6.0 1.1 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 6.9% 3.5 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 2.2% 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 2.5% 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
SE Louisiana 3.2% 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Nicholls St. 3.0% 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Northwestern St. 1.4% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Incarnate Word 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 55.7% 55.7% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 3.9 19.6 19.7 8.8 1.8 0.1 44.3 0.0%
Lamar 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.1 5.0 1.8 86.8 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.1 3.7 1.2 90.3 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.4 1.2 93.9 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.9 0.7 95.2 0.0%
SE Louisiana 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.0 1.1 95.4 0.0%
Nicholls St. 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 0.9 96.3 0.0%
Northwestern St. 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 98.6 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 99.2 0.0%
New Orleans 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 55.7% 0.0% 55.7% 11.3% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 13.2% 0.5% 13.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 9.7% 0.3% 9.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 6.1% 0.4% 5.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.8% 0.2% 4.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 4.6% 0.3% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 3.7% 0.3% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 1.4% 0.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 98.7% 1.0 1.3 98.7 0.0
2nd Round 13.2% 0.1 86.8 13.2
Sweet Sixteen 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.2
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0