Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
74 McNeese St. 67.5%   12   11 - 5 7 - 0 22 - 7 18 - 2 +7.5      +3.2 96 +4.3 65 64.7 282 +5.3 97 +8.3 1
169 TX A&M Corpus Christi 13.5%   9 - 6 6 - 1 17 - 11 14 - 6 -0.3      +0.5 164 -0.9 206 70.5 127 +0.2 170 +3.2 2
205 Nicholls St. 7.2%   8 - 7 5 - 2 16 - 12 13 - 7 -2.2      -0.7 195 -1.5 224 70.6 126 +0.2 169 +0.2 3
220 SE Louisiana 4.8%   8 - 8 4 - 3 16 - 13 12 - 8 -3.3      -3.3 255 0.0 176 67.2 223 -1.7 202 -0.7 4
231 Lamar 3.2%   6 - 9 4 - 3 13 - 15 11 - 9 -3.9      -3.8 276 -0.1 178 66.0 240 -5.3 254 -3.3 6
247 UT Rio Grande Valley 1.6%   7 - 7 3 - 4 13 - 14 9 - 11 -4.8      -2.0 227 -2.7 258 73.0 71 -4.2 235 -8.0 8
249 Stephen F. Austin 1.0%   5 - 10 1 - 6 12 - 16 8 - 12 -4.9      -8.3 352 +3.4 83 66.7 230 -7.5 289 -15.2 11
289 Northwestern St. 0.7%   5 - 10 4 - 3 11 - 17 10 - 10 -7.2      -3.4 258 -3.9 285 62.1 338 -5.1 249 -2.5 5
303 Incarnate Word 0.3%   5 - 9 2 - 5 11 - 16 8 - 12 -7.9      -1.4 213 -6.5 345 64.8 272 -9.7 314 -11.8 10
316 Houston Christian 0.3%   5 - 11 4 - 3 10 - 19 9 - 11 -8.9      -4.5 294 -4.4 299 65.5 254 -8.9 305 -4.3 7
343 New Orleans 0.0%   4 - 14 2 - 5 8 - 23 6 - 14 -11.7      -5.2 311 -6.6 346 73.6 62 -7.9 297 -8.8 9
354 Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0%   2 - 14 0 - 7 5 - 26 3 - 17 -13.5      -8.4 354 -5.0 323 67.1 226 -14.0 345 -22.3 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.0 95.9 3.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 2.6 7.1 55.7 20.9 9.4 4.0 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1
Nicholls St. 3.6 2.0 27.6 28.0 18.7 11.8 6.1 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1
SE Louisiana 3.9 0.8 17.8 27.8 23.8 14.2 7.7 4.0 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Lamar 5.0 0.3 9.3 16.3 18.0 19.3 15.0 10.1 6.1 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 6.8 0.0 1.3 5.1 9.1 13.3 16.8 16.7 14.3 12.2 8.0 3.0 0.2
Stephen F. Austin 8.2 0.2 0.8 2.7 6.5 10.7 13.6 16.2 18.7 18.0 10.5 2.1
Northwestern St. 6.3 0.0 2.3 7.5 12.1 16.0 18.0 15.3 12.2 9.2 5.2 2.1 0.1
Incarnate Word 8.2 0.2 1.3 3.5 6.8 10.3 12.8 15.5 17.2 18.3 12.3 1.8
Houston Christian 7.1 1.5 4.2 6.7 11.0 15.0 17.2 16.7 14.4 9.1 4.2 0.3
New Orleans 9.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.2 5.4 8.6 14.0 21.6 37.2 7.9
Texas A&M - Commerce 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 5.1 16.9 74.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
McNeese St. 18 - 2 0.2 0.7 2.3 7.6 16.1 27.2 29.5 16.3
TX A&M Corpus Christi 14 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 5.3 11.2 16.6 20.4 20.1 14.4 7.0 1.5 0.3
Nicholls St. 13 - 7 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.1 8.1 13.9 19.1 19.4 16.5 10.5 4.8 1.5 0.3
SE Louisiana 12 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 5.3 10.4 17.0 21.0 19.6 14.2 6.8 2.1 0.3
Lamar 11 - 9 0.2 1.1 3.2 7.0 12.2 18.1 18.7 17.3 12.0 6.7 2.7 0.8 0.1
UT Rio Grande Valley 9 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.3 5.9 12.2 16.6 19.8 17.9 13.4 7.2 3.2 0.8 0.2
Stephen F. Austin 8 - 12 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.7 8.3 13.8 18.2 20.2 16.4 10.8 5.2 1.7 0.2 0.0
Northwestern St. 10 - 10 0.2 1.2 3.7 8.6 15.2 18.2 19.1 15.6 10.2 5.2 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Incarnate Word 8 - 12 0.2 1.1 3.9 9.1 13.8 18.0 18.5 16.3 10.6 5.5 2.4 0.6 0.1
Houston Christian 9 - 11 0.5 2.9 7.8 14.0 19.0 19.8 16.5 10.2 5.7 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
New Orleans 6 - 14 1.5 6.5 14.0 19.7 21.8 16.3 11.0 5.7 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 3 - 17 4.6 13.5 22.4 22.9 17.7 11.2 4.9 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 95.9% 90.5 5.1 0.3 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 7.1% 3.0 3.7 0.3 0.0
Nicholls St. 2.0% 0.6 1.2 0.2 0.0
SE Louisiana 0.8% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
Lamar 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin
Northwestern St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Incarnate Word
Houston Christian
New Orleans
Texas A&M - Commerce


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 67.5% 67.5% 0.0% 12   0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 11.6 35.8 16.2 2.5 0.1 32.5 0.1%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 3.1 5.6 3.7 0.4 86.5 0.0%
Nicholls St. 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.1 0.8 92.8 0.0%
SE Louisiana 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.0 95.2 0.0%
Lamar 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.4 96.8 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.5 98.4 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 99.1 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.4 99.3 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%
New Orleans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 67.5% 0.0% 67.5% 14.6% 3.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 13.5% 0.1% 13.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 7.2% 0.1% 7.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 4.8% 0.2% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 3.2% 0.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 1.6% 0.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.8 99.2 0.0
2nd Round 15.7% 0.2 84.3 15.7
Sweet Sixteen 3.3% 0.0 96.7 3.3
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0