Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#182
Expected Predictive Rating-6.1#273
Pace63.5#327
Improvement+0.3#136

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#275
First Shot-2.1#241
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#256
Layup/Dunks-1.9#248
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#251
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#122
Freethrows-0.6#212
Improvement-0.2#210

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#102
First Shot+6.8#23
After Offensive Rebounds-4.3#344
Layups/Dunks+6.2#31
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#317
Freethrows+2.7#58
Improvement+0.6#103
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.6% 13.8% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.7
.500 or above 75.5% 80.8% 57.3%
.500 or above in Conference 86.6% 88.9% 78.8%
Conference Champion 13.0% 14.4% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.9%
First Round12.3% 13.6% 8.0%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Home) - 77.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 8
Quad 415 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 107   @ Drake L 51-66 22%     0 - 1 -7.8 -9.8 -0.3
  Nov 16, 2024 112   @ Arkansas St. L 49-59 22%     0 - 2 -3.1 -15.7 +11.9
  Nov 21, 2024 281   Presbyterian W 71-63 78%    
  Nov 22, 2024 261   Monmouth W 71-64 75%    
  Nov 23, 2024 190   Youngstown St. W 68-65 62%    
  Nov 29, 2024 324   @ Louisiana Monroe W 67-62 68%    
  Dec 05, 2024 191   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 70-73 41%    
  Dec 07, 2024 212   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69-71 44%    
  Dec 15, 2024 40   @ Oregon L 58-73 8%    
  Dec 31, 2024 209   @ Abilene Christian L 64-66 45%    
  Jan 04, 2025 308   Incarnate Word W 74-64 82%    
  Jan 06, 2025 357   Houston Christian W 76-60 92%    
  Jan 11, 2025 290   @ Lamar W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 13, 2025 271   SE Louisiana W 69-61 75%    
  Jan 18, 2025 220   @ Nicholls St. L 64-65 46%    
  Jan 20, 2025 91   @ McNeese St. L 59-69 21%    
  Jan 25, 2025 316   Northwestern St. W 71-61 82%    
  Jan 27, 2025 352   Texas A&M - Commerce W 72-57 90%    
  Feb 01, 2025 290   Lamar W 72-63 78%    
  Feb 03, 2025 358   @ New Orleans W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 08, 2025 212   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 10, 2025 191   UT Rio Grande Valley W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 15, 2025 316   @ Northwestern St. W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 17, 2025 352   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 69-60 78%    
  Feb 22, 2025 308   @ Incarnate Word W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 24, 2025 357   @ Houston Christian W 73-63 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 220   Nicholls St. W 67-62 66%    
  Mar 03, 2025 91   @ McNeese St. L 59-69 21%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.0 3.8 3.0 1.2 0.3 13.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.7 7.2 5.7 2.3 0.4 21.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.6 6.5 3.1 0.6 0.0 18.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.2 4.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.4 3.5 1.0 0.1 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.4 2.6 0.6 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.5 5.4 7.4 9.7 11.5 12.7 13.2 11.9 9.3 6.1 3.4 1.2 0.3 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.1
18-2 88.1% 3.0    2.4 0.6 0.0
17-3 62.5% 3.8    2.4 1.3 0.1
16-4 32.3% 3.0    1.3 1.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 12.2% 1.5    0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1
14-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.0% 13.0 7.9 4.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 61.0% 60.0% 1.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.5%
19-1 1.2% 51.3% 51.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6
18-2 3.4% 41.5% 41.5% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 2.0
17-3 6.1% 33.8% 33.8% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.1
16-4 9.3% 25.4% 25.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 6.9
15-5 11.9% 19.8% 19.8% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.2 9.5
14-6 13.2% 12.6% 12.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 11.5
13-7 12.7% 7.7% 7.7% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 11.8
12-8 11.5% 4.7% 4.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 10.9
11-9 9.7% 3.3% 3.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.3
10-10 7.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.3
9-11 5.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.3
8-12 3.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.5
7-13 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
6-14 1.2% 1.2
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 3.9 3.3 1.7 87.4 0.0%