Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#217
Expected Predictive Rating-5.2#255
Pace64.6#287
Improvement-0.4#212

Offense
Total Offense-6.6#344
First Shot-8.7#355
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#73
Layup/Dunks+1.2#138
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#265
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#329
Freethrows-3.3#344
Improvement-0.3#202

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#75
First Shot+5.5#36
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#292
Layups/Dunks+0.5#156
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#14
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#112
Freethrows+0.9#126
Improvement-0.1#187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 7.8% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 55.8% 71.4% 46.5%
.500 or above in Conference 69.5% 76.2% 65.5%
Conference Champion 2.2% 3.1% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.5% 1.3%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round5.9% 7.7% 4.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Away) - 37.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 42 - 9
Quad 413 - 615 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 67   @ Drake L 51-66 10%     0 - 1 -3.5 -7.3 +1.7
  Nov 16, 2024 109   @ Arkansas St. L 49-59 19%     0 - 2 -3.2 -15.3 +11.3
  Nov 21, 2024 250   Presbyterian L 55-58 OT 70%     0 - 3 -10.9 -26.5 +15.8
  Nov 22, 2024 272   Monmouth W 72-67 73%     1 - 3 -4.0 -2.9 -1.0
  Nov 23, 2024 195   Youngstown St. W 64-57 58%     2 - 3 +2.5 -4.6 +7.4
  Nov 29, 2024 329   @ Louisiana Monroe W 68-60 66%     3 - 3 +1.1 +2.5 -0.4
  Dec 05, 2024 227   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 65-68 42%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -3.5 -9.6 +6.2
  Dec 07, 2024 186   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 48-67 34%     3 - 5 0 - 2 -17.3 -18.9 -0.3
  Dec 15, 2024 23   @ Oregon L 61-79 4%     3 - 6 -1.0 -4.5 +3.6
  Dec 31, 2024 207   @ Abilene Christian L 63-66 37%    
  Jan 04, 2025 304   Incarnate Word W 70-62 78%    
  Jan 06, 2025 349   Houston Christian W 70-57 88%    
  Jan 11, 2025 175   @ Lamar L 60-65 33%    
  Jan 13, 2025 228   SE Louisiana W 64-60 65%    
  Jan 18, 2025 241   @ Nicholls St. L 64-65 46%    
  Jan 20, 2025 92   @ McNeese St. L 57-69 14%    
  Jan 25, 2025 292   Northwestern St. W 65-58 75%    
  Jan 27, 2025 353   Texas A&M - Commerce W 69-56 88%    
  Feb 01, 2025 175   Lamar W 63-62 55%    
  Feb 03, 2025 345   @ New Orleans W 70-64 72%    
  Feb 08, 2025 186   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 10, 2025 227   UT Rio Grande Valley W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 15, 2025 292   @ Northwestern St. W 62-61 55%    
  Feb 17, 2025 353   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 66-59 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 304   @ Incarnate Word W 67-65 58%    
  Feb 24, 2025 349   @ Houston Christian W 67-60 72%    
  Mar 01, 2025 241   Nicholls St. W 67-62 67%    
  Mar 03, 2025 92   @ McNeese St. L 57-69 15%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.6 2.9 0.8 0.1 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.6 3.2 0.6 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.6 6.4 3.5 0.6 0.0 14.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.4 6.9 3.7 0.5 0.0 14.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.1 3.7 0.6 0.0 13.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 5.0 3.7 0.6 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.8 3.1 0.6 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.4 8.3 11.7 14.4 15.3 14.4 11.5 7.7 4.4 1.5 0.4 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 78.8% 0.3    0.2 0.1
16-4 46.5% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 19.4% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 3.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 45.5% 45.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.4% 34.2% 34.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 1.5% 25.4% 25.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.1
15-5 4.4% 26.2% 26.2% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 3.2
14-6 7.7% 16.8% 16.8% 14.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 6.4
13-7 11.5% 10.4% 10.4% 14.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 10.3
12-8 14.4% 5.3% 5.3% 15.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 13.6
11-9 15.3% 3.7% 3.7% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 14.7
10-10 14.4% 2.2% 2.2% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 14.0
9-11 11.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 11.5
8-12 8.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.3
7-13 5.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.4
6-14 2.9% 2.9
5-15 1.4% 1.4
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.4 1.2 93.9 0.0%