Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#249
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#251
Pace67.4#199
Improvement+1.2#135

Offense
Total Offense-6.9#340
First Shot-9.4#360
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#38
Layup/Dunks+1.0#143
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#251
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#344
Freethrows-3.3#349
Improvement+5.3#14

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#110
First Shot+4.9#47
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#345
Layups/Dunks+0.2#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#37
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#76
Freethrows+0.2#171
Improvement-4.1#345
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.2% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 10.2% 20.1% 1.8%
.500 or above in Conference 15.4% 31.2% 2.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 1.1% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Away) - 45.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 32 - 33 - 8
Quad 410 - 713 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 74   @ Drake L 51-66 9%     0 - 1 -4.7 -9.6 +2.7
  Nov 16, 2024 97   @ Arkansas St. L 49-59 13%     0 - 2 -2.5 -15.2 +12.0
  Nov 21, 2024 270   Presbyterian L 55-58 OT 63%     0 - 3 -11.3 -27.1 +16.0
  Nov 22, 2024 255   Monmouth W 72-67 61%     1 - 3 -2.8 -2.9 +0.3
  Nov 23, 2024 186   Youngstown St. W 64-57 47%     2 - 3 +2.9 -5.8 +9.1
  Nov 29, 2024 336   @ Louisiana Monroe W 68-60 65%     3 - 3 -0.9 +1.5 -1.3
  Dec 05, 2024 262   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 65-68 42%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -5.9 -9.7 +3.8
  Dec 07, 2024 199   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 48-67 30%     3 - 5 0 - 2 -18.6 -18.9 -1.5
  Dec 15, 2024 39   @ Oregon L 61-79 4%     3 - 6 -3.3 -6.0 +2.9
  Dec 31, 2024 211   @ Abilene Christian W 62-57 32%     4 - 6 +4.9 -11.1 +15.6
  Jan 04, 2025 281   Incarnate Word L 49-55 66%     4 - 7 0 - 3 -15.2 -22.6 +6.4
  Jan 06, 2025 295   Houston Christian L 73-83 69%     4 - 8 0 - 4 -20.0 -7.4 -12.3
  Jan 11, 2025 194   @ Lamar W 72-63 30%     5 - 8 1 - 4 +9.7 +7.0 +3.4
  Jan 13, 2025 213   SE Louisiana L 59-66 51%     5 - 9 1 - 5 -12.2 -10.5 -2.3
  Jan 18, 2025 192   @ Nicholls St. L 61-73 30%     5 - 10 1 - 6 -11.3 -9.6 -2.1
  Jan 20, 2025 86   @ McNeese St. L 59-79 10%     5 - 11 1 - 7 -10.8 -4.1 -8.6
  Jan 25, 2025 272   Northwestern St. L 54-57 OT 65%     5 - 12 1 - 8 -11.8 -25.1 +13.4
  Jan 27, 2025 339   Texas A&M - Commerce W 79-72 81%     6 - 12 2 - 8 -7.0 +8.2 -14.6
  Feb 01, 2025 194   Lamar L 62-67 48%     6 - 13 2 - 9 -9.4 -8.9 -0.7
  Feb 03, 2025 353   @ New Orleans W 88-85 OT 71%     7 - 13 3 - 9 -7.6 +3.2 -11.0
  Feb 08, 2025 199   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 78-64 49%     8 - 13 4 - 9 +9.3 +1.9 +7.1
  Feb 10, 2025 262   UT Rio Grande Valley W 85-75 62%     9 - 13 5 - 9 +2.0 +3.3 -1.9
  Feb 15, 2025 272   @ Northwestern St. W 70-68 46%     10 - 13 6 - 9 -1.8 +1.8 -3.4
  Feb 17, 2025 339   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 76-74 65%     11 - 13 7 - 9 -7.0 -0.6 -6.4
  Feb 22, 2025 281   @ Incarnate Word L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 24, 2025 295   @ Houston Christian W 66-65 49%    
  Mar 01, 2025 192   Nicholls St. L 68-69 50%    
  Mar 03, 2025 86   @ McNeese St. L 59-73 9%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.7 0.7 1.4 5th
6th 3.4 8.1 0.6 12.0 6th
7th 1.6 19.1 5.0 0.0 25.7 7th
8th 0.6 17.4 12.0 0.2 30.1 8th
9th 6.2 14.4 0.6 21.1 9th
10th 7.1 2.4 0.0 9.5 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 13.8 35.7 35.1 14.0 1.4 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 1.4% 6.5% 6.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3
10-10 14.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.7
9-11 35.1% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.1 0.2 34.8
8-12 35.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 35.7
7-13 13.8% 13.8
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 13.8%