Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#186
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#183
Pace71.6#84
Improvement+5.1#22

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#235
First Shot-2.7#259
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#154
Layup/Dunks-4.2#325
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#288
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#168
Freethrows+3.0#35
Improvement+7.8#2

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#152
First Shot+1.5#129
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#254
Layups/Dunks-2.0#260
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#81
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#28
Freethrows-1.9#304
Improvement-2.7#315
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.8% 12.4% 7.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.9 15.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 6.2% 7.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round11.7% 12.3% 7.3%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Home) - 88.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 56 - 7
Quad 413 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 360   @ Chicago St. W 80-60 86%     1 - 0 +6.8 +0.2 +5.9
  Nov 11, 2024 33   @ Ohio St. L 47-81 6%     1 - 1 -17.8 -17.7 -0.1
  Nov 16, 2024 108   @ Syracuse L 95-104 2OT 24%     1 - 2 -3.0 +3.6 -4.6
  Nov 21, 2024 255   Monmouth W 72-62 64%     2 - 2 +4.8 -7.4 +11.7
  Nov 22, 2024 270   Presbyterian L 42-67 66%     2 - 3 -30.7 -33.0 +1.5
  Nov 23, 2024 249   @ Stephen F. Austin L 57-64 53%     2 - 4 -9.3 -9.3 -0.4
  Nov 27, 2024 302   Western Michigan L 62-73 80%     2 - 5 -21.4 -13.4 -8.5
  Dec 04, 2024 173   @ Robert Morris W 72-58 37%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +16.0 -2.8 +18.1
  Dec 07, 2024 198   Oakland W 66-50 62%     4 - 5 2 - 0 +11.4 -0.2 +14.0
  Dec 14, 2024 221   Toledo W 93-87 66%     5 - 5 +0.2 +10.8 -10.7
  Dec 18, 2024 220   @ Wright St. W 80-70 47%     6 - 5 3 - 0 +9.3 +5.0 +4.4
  Dec 21, 2024 345   @ South Carolina Upstate W 72-64 79%     7 - 5 -1.8 -16.4 +13.5
  Dec 29, 2024 334   Detroit Mercy W 73-64 86%     8 - 5 4 - 0 -4.4 -10.6 +5.4
  Jan 01, 2025 326   @ IU Indianapolis W 77-61 72%     9 - 5 5 - 0 +8.5 +1.0 +8.6
  Jan 04, 2025 153   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 81-90 33%     9 - 6 5 - 1 -5.9 -2.5 -2.2
  Jan 08, 2025 241   Northern Kentucky W 72-61 70%     10 - 6 6 - 1 +4.0 +0.4 +4.2
  Jan 11, 2025 170   Cleveland St. L 72-80 56%     10 - 7 6 - 2 -11.0 +0.6 -11.7
  Jan 17, 2025 130   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 64-79 29%     10 - 8 6 - 3 -10.7 -7.6 -3.2
  Jan 19, 2025 337   @ Green Bay W 73-69 76%     11 - 8 7 - 3 -4.9 -0.2 -4.5
  Jan 22, 2025 173   Robert Morris L 70-72 56%     11 - 9 7 - 4 -5.1 +1.0 -6.2
  Jan 30, 2025 220   Wright St. W 88-86 66%     12 - 9 8 - 4 -3.8 +2.2 -6.1
  Feb 01, 2025 326   IU Indianapolis L 79-84 85%     12 - 10 8 - 5 -17.6 -1.0 -16.8
  Feb 06, 2025 198   @ Oakland W 84-75 42%     13 - 10 9 - 5 +9.5 +5.1 +3.8
  Feb 08, 2025 334   @ Detroit Mercy W 87-72 74%     14 - 10 10 - 5 +6.7 +17.9 -10.3
  Feb 12, 2025 153   Purdue Fort Wayne W 93-71 52%     15 - 10 11 - 5 +20.1 +18.1 +2.2
  Feb 16, 2025 170   @ Cleveland St. W 68-60 36%     16 - 10 12 - 5 +10.1 +4.4 +6.5
  Feb 21, 2025 130   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-84 47%     16 - 11 12 - 6 -10.8 +0.3 -11.2
  Feb 23, 2025 337   Green Bay W 81-68 89%    
  Mar 01, 2025 241   @ Northern Kentucky W 70-69 50%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 6.2 6.2 1st
2nd 0.5 21.1 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 12.1 17.0 29.2 3rd
4th 0.8 29.2 30.0 4th
5th 5.1 8.0 13.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 6.0 49.7 44.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 14.1% 6.2    0.0 0.1 1.3 3.5 1.4
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 6.2% 6.2 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.5 1.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 44.3% 14.9% 14.9% 14.7 0.2 2.2 4.0 0.3 37.7
13-7 49.7% 9.8% 9.8% 15.2 0.0 0.4 3.1 1.4 44.9
12-8 6.0% 5.9% 5.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 5.6
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 14.9 0.2 2.6 7.3 1.8 88.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.6% 100.0% 14.7 2.6 33.3 60.0 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 14.2%
Lose Out 3.4%