Preseason Rankings
Horizon
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
146 Oakland 20.5%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 13 - 7 +0.9      +1.1 140 -0.2 175 66.4 246 0.0 1 0.0 1
174 Northern Kentucky 15.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 13 - 7 -0.5      -1.5 218 +0.9 138 69.4 144 0.0 1 0.0 1
180 Purdue Fort Wayne 14.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 8 -0.7      -0.4 185 -0.3 177 74.8 41 0.0 1 0.0 1
196 Wright St. 11.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 12 - 8 -1.6      +2.7 102 -4.3 322 76.6 23 0.0 1 0.0 1
198 Youngstown St. 11.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 8 -1.6      -0.9 200 -0.8 194 71.2 96 0.0 1 0.0 1
200 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 11.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 12 - 8 -1.7      +1.8 123 -3.5 289 73.1 63 0.0 1 0.0 1
213 Cleveland St. 9.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 11 - 9 -2.7      -1.3 216 -1.4 221 68.1 183 0.0 1 0.0 1
295 Robert Morris 2.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 12 -6.9      -2.9 268 -3.9 313 67.6 205 0.0 1 0.0 1
310 Green Bay 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 8 - 12 -7.8      -4.0 299 -3.8 302 61.0 349 0.0 1 0.0 1
342 Detroit Mercy 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 22 6 - 14 -11.4      -5.3 326 -6.1 353 67.6 204 0.0 1 0.0 1
360 IU Indianapolis 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 23 3 - 17 -15.5      -8.8 358 -6.7 356 68.4 176 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Oakland 3.4 27.4 18.6 14.2 11.5 9.0 7.3 5.3 3.7 2.1 0.8 0.2
Northern Kentucky 4.0 19.1 15.9 14.5 12.4 11.2 9.1 7.4 5.3 3.3 1.4 0.4
Purdue Fort Wayne 4.0 18.5 15.6 14.1 12.8 10.9 9.4 7.6 5.5 3.4 1.7 0.5
Wright St. 4.5 14.7 13.3 12.8 12.8 11.9 10.7 9.0 7.0 4.8 2.3 0.7
Youngstown St. 4.5 14.1 13.9 13.2 12.6 12.0 10.6 9.2 6.9 4.5 2.4 0.7
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 4.5 13.9 13.6 13.5 12.5 11.6 11.1 9.2 7.0 4.6 2.3 0.7
Cleveland St. 5.0 10.5 11.1 11.7 12.2 12.1 11.8 10.9 9.2 6.3 3.2 1.0
Robert Morris 7.0 2.4 4.0 5.0 6.9 8.8 11.0 13.7 15.8 15.8 11.5 5.0
Green Bay 7.4 1.7 2.9 4.3 5.8 7.2 10.0 12.7 16.4 18.1 14.1 6.8
Detroit Mercy 8.8 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.1 3.1 5.1 8.1 12.4 19.4 28.3 19.0
IU Indianapolis 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 3.2 5.9 12.3 25.1 50.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Oakland 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.3 4.8 6.5 8.1 9.9 11.1 11.9 11.5 10.5 8.2 5.7 3.0 1.0
Northern Kentucky 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.2 4.9 6.5 8.2 9.8 11.3 11.5 10.9 9.8 8.1 5.8 3.6 1.6 0.5
Purdue Fort Wayne 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.5 5.1 6.7 8.5 9.8 10.9 11.5 10.6 9.5 8.0 5.7 3.5 1.6 0.4
Wright St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.3 4.6 6.1 7.8 9.5 10.7 10.8 10.9 9.9 8.3 6.5 4.4 2.5 1.1 0.3
Youngstown St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.3 6.2 7.9 9.6 10.6 11.1 11.1 10.0 8.4 6.2 4.4 2.3 1.0 0.3
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.0 4.5 6.2 8.2 9.5 10.8 11.0 11.0 9.8 8.5 6.4 4.0 2.4 1.1 0.3
Cleveland St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.1 6.0 7.8 9.3 10.4 10.8 11.0 9.9 8.6 6.3 5.0 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.2
Robert Morris 8 - 12 0.2 0.8 1.9 4.1 6.1 8.1 9.9 11.0 11.5 10.9 9.4 8.3 6.3 4.5 3.2 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Green Bay 8 - 12 0.3 1.3 2.8 5.1 7.3 9.7 11.0 11.5 11.3 10.2 8.7 6.7 5.2 3.8 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Detroit Mercy 6 - 14 1.7 5.0 8.5 12.0 13.0 13.2 11.7 10.3 8.0 5.9 4.2 2.8 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
IU Indianapolis 3 - 17 8.2 14.7 17.2 16.4 13.9 10.2 7.2 5.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Oakland 27.4% 19.4 6.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Kentucky 19.1% 12.6 5.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 18.5% 12.4 4.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wright St. 14.7% 9.6 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Youngstown St. 14.1% 9.1 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 13.9% 9.0 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cleveland St. 10.5% 6.5 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Robert Morris 2.4% 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Green Bay 1.7% 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit Mercy 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
IU Indianapolis 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Oakland 20.5% 20.4% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 2.9 5.3 5.1 4.1 2.0 79.5 0.1%
Northern Kentucky 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 3.4 4.0 3.3 1.8 85.0 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 14.6% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 3.7 3.6 3.3 85.4 0.0%
Wright St. 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 3.2 3.0 2.0 88.1 0.0%
Youngstown St. 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.8 3.2 3.2 88.3 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.9 3.2 2.6 88.1 0.0%
Cleveland St. 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.3 2.6 2.0 90.8 0.0%
Robert Morris 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 97.3 0.0%
Green Bay 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 98.0 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Oakland 20.5% 1.0% 20.1% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 15.0% 0.8% 14.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 14.6% 1.5% 13.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wright St. 11.9% 0.9% 11.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 11.7% 1.5% 11.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 11.9% 1.3% 11.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 9.2% 0.9% 8.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 2.7% 0.7% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 2.0% 0.7% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 95.6% 1.0 4.4 95.6 0.1
2nd Round 9.3% 0.1 90.7 9.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0