Horizon
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
141 Wright St. 22.6%   15   3 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 11 14 - 6 +1.3      +3.2 85 -1.9 232 69.9 162 +0.9 150 0.0 1
143 Purdue Fort Wayne 21.2%   4 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 11 14 - 6 +1.1      +3.0 94 -1.8 226 71.3 120 +0.6 158 0.0 1
144 Oakland 21.4%   1 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 13 13 - 7 +1.1      0.0 177 +1.1 136 61.6 346 -5.2 252 0.0 1
193 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 10.8%   4 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 8 -1.4      +1.5 137 -2.9 273 71.8 108 -0.2 173 0.0 1
208 Northern Kentucky 10.0%   1 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 15 11 - 9 -1.9      -3.2 258 +1.3 128 69.3 175 -10.1 320 0.0 1
247 Youngstown St. 3.9%   2 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 11 -4.8      -5.7 328 +0.9 142 71.2 122 -8.6 303 0.0 1
252 Robert Morris 3.5%   5 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 11 -5.0      -4.3 290 -0.7 197 68.0 215 0.0 166 0.0 1
255 Cleveland St. 3.6%   3 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 11 -5.1      -5.5 322 +0.3 160 68.5 198 -5.2 254 0.0 1
292 Green Bay 1.6%   2 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 20 8 - 12 -6.9      -2.1 232 -4.8 321 75.3 41 -8.4 299 0.0 1
308 Detroit Mercy 1.4%   3 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 19 7 - 13 -7.6      -4.4 294 -3.2 282 67.6 225 -3.9 231 0.0 1
359 IU Indianapolis 0.0%   1 - 5 0 - 0 5 - 23 3 - 17 -14.7      -6.5 343 -8.3 361 68.0 213 -15.0 350 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Wright St. 3.0 30.0 21.9 16.2 11.6 7.8 5.1 3.6 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1
Purdue Fort Wayne 3.0 29.1 21.6 16.4 11.6 8.3 5.4 3.6 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.1
Oakland 3.1 29.4 20.0 15.3 12.0 8.5 5.9 4.0 2.5 1.6 0.7 0.1
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 4.3 12.5 14.5 15.5 14.7 13.2 10.2 8.0 5.6 3.6 1.9 0.3
Northern Kentucky 4.6 11.6 13.0 13.3 14.1 13.3 11.2 8.9 6.8 4.6 2.6 0.6
Youngstown St. 6.2 3.4 5.5 7.8 9.9 12.4 12.8 13.8 12.7 11.3 8.5 2.0
Robert Morris 6.4 2.7 4.9 7.3 9.4 12.0 13.0 13.9 13.6 12.0 9.0 2.1
Cleveland St. 6.4 2.8 5.0 6.8 9.4 11.6 13.5 14.0 13.4 11.9 9.1 2.6
Green Bay 7.4 1.2 2.2 3.9 5.7 7.8 10.4 13.5 15.7 17.4 16.7 5.4
Detroit Mercy 7.8 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.6 7.0 9.2 12.2 15.6 19.3 20.2 6.9
IU Indianapolis 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.9 3.8 7.7 18.4 66.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Wright St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.9 5.6 8.4 10.8 13.5 14.5 13.6 11.0 8.1 4.5 1.7 0.4
Purdue Fort Wayne 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.9 5.9 9.0 11.3 13.5 13.8 13.2 11.2 7.7 4.0 1.8 0.4
Oakland 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.2 6.6 9.0 11.0 12.9 13.4 12.6 10.3 7.6 4.7 2.0 0.4
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.7 6.1 8.4 10.6 13.0 13.2 13.3 10.7 8.0 5.0 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1
Northern Kentucky 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.7 6.7 9.5 11.4 12.8 12.7 11.5 9.6 7.2 4.6 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.0
Youngstown St. 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.8 4.8 7.6 10.3 11.9 12.5 12.9 11.3 9.0 6.8 4.3 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Robert Morris 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.1 5.3 8.0 10.3 12.5 13.3 12.9 10.7 8.7 5.8 3.8 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Cleveland St. 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.6 8.1 10.5 12.3 13.4 12.9 10.6 8.3 5.8 3.7 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 8 - 12 0.0 0.5 1.4 3.3 6.2 9.6 11.9 13.3 14.1 12.0 9.3 7.3 5.3 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Detroit Mercy 7 - 13 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.4 7.7 11.1 13.4 14.1 13.3 10.9 8.7 5.9 3.8 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
IU Indianapolis 3 - 17 7.4 14.8 19.1 18.6 14.5 10.7 6.9 4.0 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wright St. 30.0% 20.5 7.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 29.1% 19.8 7.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Oakland 29.4% 20.5 7.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 12.5% 7.4 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Kentucky 11.6% 7.0 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Youngstown St. 3.4% 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Robert Morris 2.7% 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cleveland St. 2.8% 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Detroit Mercy 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
IU Indianapolis


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wright St. 22.6% 22.6% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.4 7.7 4.7 1.2 77.4 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 21.2% 21.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.9 7.1 4.7 1.1 78.8 0.0%
Oakland 21.4% 21.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.4 6.0 5.1 2.7 78.6 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.2 3.6 1.8 89.2 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.3 3.6 90.0 0.0%
Youngstown St. 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 96.1 0.0%
Robert Morris 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.2 96.5 0.0%
Cleveland St. 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.0 96.4 0.0%
Green Bay 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 98.4 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 98.6 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wright St. 22.6% 0.4% 22.5% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 21.2% 0.3% 21.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 21.4% 1.4% 21.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 10.8% 0.5% 10.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 10.0% 1.9% 9.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 3.9% 1.1% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 3.5% 0.5% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 3.6% 1.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 1.6% 0.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 1.4% 0.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.2% 1.0 3.8 96.2
2nd Round 7.0% 0.1 93.0 7.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0