Oakland
Horizon
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#198
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#218
Pace60.2#354
Improvement+0.5#166

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#176
First Shot-2.2#238
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#57
Layup/Dunks+0.3#168
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#158
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#242
Freethrows-0.8#234
Improvement+1.6#108

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#229
First Shot+0.0#186
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#324
Layups/Dunks+5.2#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#353
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#317
Freethrows+2.6#32
Improvement-1.2#251
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 8.2% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 5.4% 8.6% 1.5%
.500 or above in Conference 90.2% 100.0% 78.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.7% 3.3% 4.2%
First Round5.8% 7.2% 4.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Home) - 54.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 35 - 75 - 14
Quad 49 - 414 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 49   @ Boise St. L 43-87 8%     0 - 1 -30.5 -20.7 -12.9
  Nov 13, 2024 18   @ Illinois L 54-66 4%     0 - 2 +6.7 -9.9 +16.3
  Nov 16, 2024 19   @ Kansas L 57-78 4%     0 - 3 -2.3 +2.1 -6.8
  Nov 21, 2024 291   Eastern Michigan L 64-68 76%     0 - 4 -13.6 -7.0 -7.1
  Nov 30, 2024 221   @ Toledo W 85-52 44%     1 - 4 +32.3 +16.7 +19.1
  Dec 05, 2024 220   Wright St. W 66-64 64%     2 - 4 1 - 0 -3.8 -2.6 -0.9
  Dec 07, 2024 186   @ Youngstown St. L 50-66 38%     2 - 5 1 - 1 -15.0 -13.3 -4.1
  Dec 17, 2024 12   Michigan St. L 58-77 4%     2 - 6 -0.8 +0.9 -3.6
  Dec 19, 2024 170   @ Cleveland St. L 75-92 34%     2 - 7 1 - 2 -14.9 +11.4 -27.7
  Dec 22, 2024 110   Loyola Chicago W 72-71 30%     3 - 7 +4.4 +9.0 -4.5
  Dec 23, 2024 87   Oregon St. L 74-80 OT 21%     3 - 8 +0.4 +3.3 -3.1
  Dec 25, 2024 207   @ Hawaii L 70-73 OT 42%     3 - 9 -3.0 -0.6 -2.4
  Dec 30, 2024 35   @ Arkansas L 62-92 6%     3 - 10 -14.7 -1.9 -12.4
  Jan 02, 2025 130   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 65-49 45%     4 - 10 2 - 2 +15.2 +0.1 +17.3
  Jan 04, 2025 173   Robert Morris L 71-79 54%     4 - 11 2 - 3 -11.1 +3.7 -15.5
  Jan 09, 2025 220   @ Wright St. L 62-66 44%     4 - 12 2 - 4 -4.7 -6.5 +1.4
  Jan 11, 2025 241   @ Northern Kentucky W 68-53 49%     5 - 12 3 - 4 +13.1 +11.4 +5.3
  Jan 15, 2025 326   IU Indianapolis W 72-59 84%     6 - 12 4 - 4 +0.4 -4.2 +6.0
  Jan 18, 2025 334   @ Detroit Mercy W 65-59 72%     7 - 12 5 - 4 -2.3 +1.4 -2.7
  Jan 22, 2025 153   Purdue Fort Wayne W 76-72 49%     8 - 12 6 - 4 +2.1 +10.5 -7.9
  Jan 25, 2025 173   @ Robert Morris L 71-73 35%     8 - 13 6 - 5 +0.0 +7.2 -7.4
  Jan 30, 2025 337   Green Bay W 68-54 87%     9 - 13 7 - 5 +0.0 +0.5 +2.1
  Feb 01, 2025 241   Northern Kentucky L 75-84 68%     9 - 14 7 - 6 -16.0 -0.1 -15.9
  Feb 06, 2025 186   Youngstown St. L 75-84 58%     9 - 15 7 - 7 -13.1 -3.1 -9.4
  Feb 12, 2025 326   @ IU Indianapolis W 82-67 70%     10 - 15 8 - 7 +7.5 +11.3 -1.8
  Feb 16, 2025 334   Detroit Mercy W 93-83 OT 85%     11 - 15 9 - 7 -3.4 +5.3 -9.8
  Feb 21, 2025 153   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 66-80 31%     11 - 16 9 - 8 -10.9 -8.2 -2.5
  Feb 23, 2025 170   Cleveland St. W 66-65 55%    
  Feb 27, 2025 130   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 68-74 26%    
  Mar 01, 2025 337   @ Green Bay W 74-67 73%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.2 0.2 4th
5th 2.4 2.4 5th
6th 5.0 34.4 41.5 8.3 89.1 6th
7th 4.9 3.5 8.3 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 9.8 37.8 41.5 10.9 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 10.9% 12.1% 12.1% 15.0 0.1 1.1 0.1 9.6
11-9 41.5% 7.7% 7.7% 15.9 0.4 2.8 38.3
10-10 37.8% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 2.0 35.8
9-11 9.8% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.4 9.4
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 15.7 0.1 1.5 5.4 93.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 15.0 10.6 81.8 7.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2%
Lose Out 2.1%