Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#153
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#162
Pace74.1#47
Improvement-1.1#244

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#107
First Shot+3.7#79
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#263
Layup/Dunks-2.5#276
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#214
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.3#14
Freethrows-0.3#193
Improvement-3.5#326

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#223
First Shot-3.1#271
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#76
Layups/Dunks-1.7#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#183
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#324
Freethrows+2.4#42
Improvement+2.4#57
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.6% 18.3% 15.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 7.4% 9.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.6% 18.3% 15.4%
Second Round0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Kentucky (Home) - 77.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 34 - 65 - 9
Quad 414 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 81   @ Central Florida L 68-75 20%     0 - 1 +2.6 -3.5 +6.2
  Nov 12, 2024 293   Bethune-Cookman W 91-69 84%     1 - 1 +12.1 +10.3 +0.7
  Nov 16, 2024 343   Southern Indiana W 93-74 92%     2 - 1 +4.2 +15.2 -10.6
  Nov 20, 2024 62   @ Penn St. L 89-102 16%     2 - 2 -1.9 +18.1 -19.6
  Nov 25, 2024 195   Drexel W 87-81 60%     3 - 2 +4.1 +22.3 -17.7
  Nov 26, 2024 177   Radford L 56-69 56%     3 - 3 -13.9 -14.8 -0.1
  Nov 30, 2024 339   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 77-57 82%     4 - 3 +11.0 +7.1 +5.4
  Dec 05, 2024 334   @ Detroit Mercy L 78-79 80%     4 - 4 0 - 1 -9.3 +5.0 -14.3
  Dec 08, 2024 173   Robert Morris W 82-77 64%     5 - 4 1 - 1 +1.9 -1.2 +2.5
  Dec 11, 2024 326   IU Indianapolis W 78-76 89%     6 - 4 2 - 1 -10.6 -3.0 -7.5
  Dec 15, 2024 291   @ Eastern Michigan W 121-94 69%     7 - 4 +22.4 +23.4 -5.8
  Dec 22, 2024 22   @ Michigan L 58-89 6%     7 - 5 -12.8 -6.1 -6.7
  Dec 29, 2024 337   @ Green Bay W 83-67 82%     8 - 5 3 - 1 +7.1 +8.7 -1.0
  Jan 01, 2025 241   @ Northern Kentucky L 68-69 OT 59%     8 - 6 3 - 2 -2.9 -3.6 +0.7
  Jan 04, 2025 186   Youngstown St. W 90-81 67%     9 - 6 4 - 2 +4.9 +5.4 -1.5
  Jan 08, 2025 130   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-73 56%     10 - 6 5 - 2 +4.2 -4.5 +8.1
  Jan 11, 2025 334   Detroit Mercy W 90-67 90%     11 - 6 6 - 2 +9.6 +17.9 -7.0
  Jan 15, 2025 220   @ Wright St. W 120-113 2OT 55%     12 - 6 7 - 2 +6.3 +16.8 -12.1
  Jan 22, 2025 198   @ Oakland L 72-76 51%     12 - 7 7 - 3 -3.5 +8.3 -12.4
  Jan 25, 2025 326   @ IU Indianapolis W 91-80 78%     13 - 7 8 - 3 +3.5 +8.5 -5.1
  Jan 30, 2025 170   Cleveland St. L 58-68 64%     13 - 8 8 - 4 -13.0 -9.0 -4.9
  Feb 02, 2025 130   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 81-79 36%     14 - 8 9 - 4 +6.3 +5.7 +0.4
  Feb 05, 2025 220   Wright St. W 87-64 73%     15 - 8 10 - 4 +17.2 +3.6 +12.3
  Feb 08, 2025 337   Green Bay W 89-74 91%     16 - 8 11 - 4 +1.0 +3.0 -3.0
  Feb 12, 2025 186   @ Youngstown St. L 71-93 48%     16 - 9 11 - 5 -21.0 +0.9 -22.1
  Feb 15, 2025 173   @ Robert Morris L 69-76 45%     16 - 10 11 - 6 -5.0 -3.6 -1.2
  Feb 21, 2025 198   Oakland W 80-66 69%     17 - 10 12 - 6 +9.4 +2.8 +6.3
  Feb 27, 2025 241   Northern Kentucky W 78-70 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 170   @ Cleveland St. L 73-75 42%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 7.4 7.4 1st
2nd 0.5 20.1 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 10.0 5.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.8 27.5 28.3 4th
5th 12.9 15.8 28.7 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 13.8 53.8 32.5 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 22.8% 7.4    0.1 0.6 2.1 3.3 1.4
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 7.4% 7.4 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.3 1.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 32.5% 20.8% 20.8% 13.7 0.1 2.4 3.5 0.8 0.0 25.7
13-7 53.8% 16.5% 16.5% 14.3 0.9 4.7 3.2 0.1 44.9
12-8 13.8% 14.2% 14.2% 14.6 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.1 11.8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 14.1 0.1 3.3 9.0 5.0 0.2 82.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.8% 100.0% 13.7 2.1 35.0 51.4 11.4 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.2%
Lose Out 6.3%