Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#144
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#174
Pace74.8#48
Improvement-2.6#321

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#83
First Shot+4.3#64
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#221
Layup/Dunks-1.5#231
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#243
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#15
Freethrows-0.2#186
Improvement-1.3#290

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#277
First Shot-2.7#271
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#222
Layups/Dunks-1.3#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#202
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#287
Freethrows+1.4#87
Improvement-1.2#279
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.2% 25.1% 18.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.3 14.1
.500 or above 91.8% 97.1% 91.5%
.500 or above in Conference 90.1% 93.9% 89.9%
Conference Champion 20.5% 27.1% 20.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round19.1% 25.1% 18.7%
Second Round1.4% 2.7% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan (Away) - 5.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 415 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 84   @ Central Florida L 68-75 19%     0 - 1 +2.7 -0.7 +3.6
  Nov 12, 2024 262   Bethune-Cookman W 91-69 80%     1 - 1 +13.5 +11.6 +0.7
  Nov 16, 2024 282   Southern Indiana W 93-74 83%     2 - 1 +9.3 +17.8 -8.0
  Nov 20, 2024 30   @ Penn St. L 89-102 9%     2 - 2 +2.6 +21.2 -18.2
  Nov 25, 2024 146   Drexel W 87-81 50%     3 - 2 +6.4 +22.4 -15.4
  Nov 26, 2024 204   Radford L 56-69 60%     3 - 3 -15.0 -14.9 -1.1
  Nov 30, 2024 353   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 77-57 83%     4 - 3 +10.4 +6.6 +5.2
  Dec 05, 2024 323   @ Detroit Mercy L 78-79 74%     4 - 4 0 - 1 -7.1 +4.4 -11.5
  Dec 08, 2024 259   Robert Morris W 82-77 80%     5 - 4 1 - 1 -3.3 -1.9 -2.0
  Dec 11, 2024 354   IU Indianapolis W 78-76 93%     6 - 4 2 - 1 -13.8 -1.5 -12.3
  Dec 15, 2024 317   @ Eastern Michigan W 121-94 73%     7 - 4 +21.2 +23.6 -7.2
  Dec 22, 2024 21   @ Michigan L 72-89 6%    
  Dec 29, 2024 333   @ Green Bay W 87-79 77%    
  Jan 01, 2025 214   @ Northern Kentucky W 76-75 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 195   Youngstown St. W 80-75 68%    
  Jan 08, 2025 137   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 84-82 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 323   Detroit Mercy W 84-71 88%    
  Jan 15, 2025 154   @ Wright St. L 81-84 41%    
  Jan 22, 2025 206   @ Oakland L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 25, 2025 354   @ IU Indianapolis W 83-73 83%    
  Jan 30, 2025 224   Cleveland St. W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 02, 2025 137   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 81-85 36%    
  Feb 05, 2025 154   Wright St. W 84-81 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 333   Green Bay W 90-76 89%    
  Feb 12, 2025 195   @ Youngstown St. L 77-78 46%    
  Feb 15, 2025 259   @ Robert Morris W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 21, 2025 206   Oakland W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 27, 2025 214   Northern Kentucky W 78-72 70%    
  Mar 01, 2025 224   @ Cleveland St. W 78-77 52%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.0 6.0 3.6 1.4 0.3 20.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.1 7.5 5.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.7 7.1 3.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.9 7.1 3.8 0.4 0.0 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.2 3.2 0.3 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 5.3 8.5 11.6 15.1 15.7 14.6 11.9 7.3 3.8 1.4 0.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 99.6% 1.4    1.4 0.0
17-3 95.5% 3.6    3.2 0.4 0.0
16-4 81.9% 6.0    4.3 1.6 0.1
15-5 50.7% 6.0    2.7 2.6 0.7 0.1
14-6 19.4% 2.8    0.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.5% 20.5 12.4 5.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.3% 52.7% 52.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
18-2 1.4% 47.3% 47.3% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7
17-3 3.8% 41.6% 41.6% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.2
16-4 7.3% 35.1% 35.1% 13.5 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.2 4.8
15-5 11.9% 28.8% 28.8% 13.8 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 8.5
14-6 14.6% 24.2% 24.2% 14.1 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.1 0.1 11.1
13-7 15.7% 18.1% 18.1% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.1 12.9
12-8 15.1% 14.6% 14.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.2 12.9
11-9 11.6% 10.9% 10.9% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 10.4
10-10 8.5% 7.1% 7.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 7.9
9-11 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 15.6 0.1 0.2 5.0
8-12 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.6
7-13 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
6-14 0.5% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-15 0.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 19.2% 19.2% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.3 7.2 5.6 1.1 80.8 0.0%