Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#140
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#158
Pace74.8#58
Improvement+0.3#141

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#128
First Shot+3.1#86
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#265
Layup/Dunks+1.0#140
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#88
Freethrows+0.9#145
Improvement+1.1#48

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#176
First Shot-2.8#268
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#41
Layups/Dunks-0.5#186
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#146
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#260
Freethrows-0.9#237
Improvement-0.9#291
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.4% 33.2% 23.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 12.8 13.8
.500 or above 89.1% 97.5% 88.3%
.500 or above in Conference 91.7% 96.7% 91.1%
Conference Champion 34.8% 47.5% 33.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.5% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round24.2% 33.2% 23.3%
Second Round2.7% 5.5% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.2% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn St. (Away) - 9.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 44 - 7
Quad 415 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 71   @ Central Florida L 68-75 18%     0 - 1 +4.0 -0.4 +4.6
  Nov 12, 2024 286   Bethune-Cookman W 91-69 85%     1 - 1 +12.6 +10.6 +0.7
  Nov 16, 2024 323   Southern Indiana W 93-74 89%     2 - 1 +7.0 +16.7 -9.3
  Nov 20, 2024 32   @ Penn St. L 74-88 9%    
  Nov 25, 2024 144   Drexel W 71-70 51%    
  Nov 30, 2024 352   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 80-68 85%    
  Dec 05, 2024 338   @ Detroit Mercy W 80-70 82%    
  Dec 08, 2024 288   Robert Morris W 79-68 84%    
  Dec 11, 2024 361   IU Indianapolis W 84-65 96%    
  Dec 15, 2024 301   @ Eastern Michigan W 75-69 70%    
  Dec 22, 2024 24   @ Michigan L 70-85 9%    
  Dec 29, 2024 252   @ Green Bay W 81-78 61%    
  Jan 01, 2025 201   @ Northern Kentucky W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 04, 2025 190   Youngstown St. W 79-73 70%    
  Jan 08, 2025 210   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 84-77 73%    
  Jan 11, 2025 338   Detroit Mercy W 83-67 92%    
  Jan 15, 2025 186   @ Wright St. L 83-84 49%    
  Jan 22, 2025 176   @ Oakland L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 361   @ IU Indianapolis W 81-68 88%    
  Jan 30, 2025 219   Cleveland St. W 77-70 75%    
  Feb 02, 2025 210   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 81-80 53%    
  Feb 05, 2025 186   Wright St. W 86-80 69%    
  Feb 08, 2025 252   Green Bay W 84-75 79%    
  Feb 12, 2025 190   @ Youngstown St. L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 288   @ Robert Morris W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 21, 2025 176   Oakland W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 27, 2025 201   Northern Kentucky W 76-70 71%    
  Mar 01, 2025 219   @ Cleveland St. W 74-73 55%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.6 8.5 8.4 6.0 2.8 0.8 34.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.3 5.9 3.1 0.8 0.1 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.7 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.3 2.8 0.6 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.2 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.7 5.7 7.7 9.9 11.9 13.0 12.7 11.7 9.2 6.1 2.8 0.8 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
19-1 100.0% 2.8    2.8 0.0
18-2 98.5% 6.0    5.8 0.3 0.0
17-3 91.1% 8.4    7.1 1.2 0.1
16-4 72.8% 8.5    5.8 2.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 44.1% 5.6    2.4 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 17.5% 2.3    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 34.8% 34.8 25.2 7.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.8% 66.7% 66.0% 0.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.8%
19-1 2.8% 54.2% 54.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.3
18-2 6.1% 48.2% 48.2% 12.7 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.2
17-3 9.2% 42.5% 42.5% 13.1 0.0 0.9 1.8 1.1 0.1 5.3
16-4 11.7% 34.9% 34.9% 13.5 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.6 0.4 7.6
15-5 12.7% 29.7% 29.7% 13.9 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.8 0.1 9.0
14-6 13.0% 21.9% 21.9% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.1 10.1
13-7 11.9% 17.2% 17.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 9.9
12-8 9.9% 13.6% 13.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 8.6
11-9 7.7% 9.4% 9.4% 15.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 7.0
10-10 5.7% 6.4% 6.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.4
9-11 3.7% 3.8% 3.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.5
8-12 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.3
7-13 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
6-14 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.3% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.4% 24.4% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.6 6.6 7.3 4.8 1.4 75.6 0.0%