Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.2 #212
Expected Predictive Rating +0.9 #150
Pace 71.1 #118
Improvement +3.0 #50

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #197 C D- B F C+
Defense #243 D D- B+ B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #223 1.17 #158 -0.7 #205
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #280 0.70 #266 -2.2 #291
Three Pointers 47% #60 1.05 #139 +3.9 #61
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #147 +1.1 #145
Freethrows 14.3 #331 70% #244 10.0 #329
Second Chance 23.0% #346 1.04 #182 0.24 #333
Turnovers 14.8% #77
Total Offense -1.1 #197

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #224 1.21 #252 -0.2 #184
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #334 0.71 #107 +2.5 #23
Three Pointers 48% #25 1.13 #318 -6.2 #355
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #302 -3.9 #301
Freethrows 15.0 #49 78% #359 11.7 #111
Second Chance 35.3% #327 1.07 #225 0.38 #314
Turnovers 19.3% #47
Total Defense -2.1 #243

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #126 1.3% #290
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.1% #162 6.2% #295
Possession Length 17.6 #202 17.0 #125
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #151 0.16 #128
Improvement +0.0 #174 +3.0 #34

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 9.6% 7.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 14.8
.500 or above 78.2% 85.5% 62.7%
.500 or above in Conference 95.1% 98.0% 88.9%
Conference Champion 14.3% 17.8% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round8.9% 9.6% 7.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: IU Indianapolis (Away) - 67.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 55 - 9
Quad 412 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 79 @Grand Canyon L 71 - 90 11% -15  0 - 1 -9 +1 C D+ C+ -9 F F A-
 Fri, Nov 7 30 @Ohio St. L 68 - 94 4% -14  0 - 2 -9 -1 C C D -7 F D- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 260 @Western Michigan L 71 - 83 47% -1  0 - 3 -14 -10 F F B- -3 C C- B
 Tue, Nov 18 104 @Utah L 77 - 85 16% -9  0 - 4 -0 +10 B+ C- C -11 F B+ B
 Fri, Nov 21 28 @Saint Louis L 60 - 91 4% -19  0 - 5 -13 -4 F C- C- -9 F C A+
 Tue, Nov 25 357 Chicago St. W 90 - 77 90% +4  1 - 5 -4 +12 A+ F F -15 F F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 139 @Oakland L 92 - 101 24% -8  1 - 6 0 - 1 -5 +9 B- D- A+ -13 F D C+
 Sat, Dec 6 178 Northern Kentucky W 79 - 77 54% -2  2 - 6 1 - 1 -2 -2 A+ F F -0 C+ C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 198 Eastern Michigan W 80 - 65 59% +12  3 - 6 +9 +11 C- A+ B+ -0 F B- C
 Sun, Dec 14 286 Detroit Mercy W 81 - 77 75% +2  4 - 6 2 - 1 -6 +5 C F A+ -11 D+ D D
 Sun, Dec 21 84 @Notre Dame W 72 - 69 11% +4  5 - 6 +13 +5 B F A- +8 A B A+
 Mon, Dec 29 248 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 55 - 77 45% -19  5 - 7 2 - 2 -24 -18 F F B -7 C F A+
 Thu, Jan 1 255 Green Bay L 54 - 72 68% -10  5 - 8 2 - 3 -26 -19 F F F -9 D+ F B
 Sun, Jan 4 316 Cleveland St. W 74 - 71 81% -4  6 - 8 3 - 3 -9 -5 D- F B -4 A F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 213 @Youngstown St. W 71 - 69 39% +0  7 - 8 4 - 3 +2 +2 C F B +0 A+ F A+
 Sun, Jan 11 200 @Robert Morris W 79 - 74 36% +5  8 - 8 5 - 3 +5 +12 A+ A- F -6 F A+ C-
 Sun, Jan 18 248 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 100 - 82 67% +9  9 - 8 6 - 3 +10 +18 A+ C A+ -8 F A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 21 286 @Detroit Mercy W 83 - 76 54% +2  10 - 8 7 - 3 +3 +5 C+ F A+ -3 D+ A- B-
 Sun, Jan 25 337 @IU Indianapolis W 88 - 83 68%
 Wed, Jan 28 139 Oakland L 82 - 84 44%
 Sat, Jan 31 200 Robert Morris W 76 - 74 59%
 Wed, Feb 4 213 Youngstown St. W 77 - 74 61%
 Sat, Feb 7 154 @Wright St. L 72 - 79 27%
 Thu, Feb 12 255 @Green Bay L 74 - 75 45%
 Sun, Feb 15 337 IU Indianapolis W 91 - 80 85%
 Wed, Feb 18 178 @Northern Kentucky L 75 - 80 32%
 Sun, Feb 22 316 @Cleveland St. W 82 - 79 62%
 Wed, Feb 25 154 Wright St. L 75 - 76 48%
Totals 15 - 13 12 - 8 -3 -1 C D- B -2 D D- B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 5.1 5.4 2.2 0.4 14.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 7.7 7.3 1.7 0.1 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.4 11.2 10.7 2.3 0.1 26.7 3rd
4th 1.0 7.4 8.3 1.5 0.0 18.1 4th
5th 0.3 3.9 6.3 1.3 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.9 1.2 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.0 3.8 9.7 17.4 22.4 21.1 14.7 7.2 2.3 0.4 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.4    0.4
16-4 97.3% 2.2    1.8 0.4 0.0
15-5 74.9% 5.4    3.0 2.1 0.3
14-6 34.4% 5.1    1.3 2.3 1.4 0.1
13-7 5.8% 1.2    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.3% 14.3 6.5 5.0 2.2 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.4% 15.7% 15.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-4 2.3% 19.7% 19.7% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.8
15-5 7.2% 16.0% 16.0% 14.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 6.1
14-6 14.7% 13.1% 13.1% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.0 12.8
13-7 21.1% 10.3% 10.3% 14.5 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 19.0
12-8 22.4% 8.4% 8.4% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.3 20.5
11-9 17.4% 5.2% 5.2% 15.2 0.0 0.7 0.2 16.4
10-10 9.7% 3.0% 3.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 9.4
9-11 3.8% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.8
8-12 1.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.0
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 14.6 91.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%