Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.7#24
Expected Predictive Rating+13.2#42
Pace71.9#122
Improvement+0.3#166

Offense
Total Offense+8.5#24
First Shot+11.4#4
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#335
Layup/Dunks+4.7#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#134
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#79
Freethrows+2.4#63
Improvement+0.3#152

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#33
First Shot+5.8#31
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#158
Layups/Dunks+3.6#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#281
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#54
Freethrows-0.3#202
Improvement+0.0#187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.8% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 3.8% 5.9% 1.8%
Top 4 Seed 20.3% 28.7% 12.2%
Top 6 Seed 44.6% 56.6% 33.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.4% 91.3% 75.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.9% 90.9% 75.4%
Average Seed 6.3 5.8 6.9
.500 or above 95.3% 98.3% 92.4%
.500 or above in Conference 80.7% 90.0% 71.7%
Conference Champion 2.8% 4.8% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four4.7% 3.0% 6.3%
First Round81.3% 90.0% 73.1%
Second Round56.3% 65.5% 47.5%
Sweet Sixteen24.3% 30.4% 18.5%
Elite Eight9.2% 11.6% 7.0%
Final Four3.6% 4.6% 2.7%
Championship Game1.2% 1.6% 0.8%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.3%

Next Game: Illinois (Home) - 48.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 8
Quad 27 - 313 - 11
Quad 32 - 015 - 11
Quad 46 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 356 IU Indianapolis W 118-102 99%     1 - 0 -0.8 +13.5 -17.2
  Fri, Nov 7 238 Purdue Fort Wayne W 94-68 97%     2 - 0 +18.6 +12.7 +5.0
  Tue, Nov 11 282 Appalachian St. W 75-53 98%     3 - 0 +12.5 +8.6 +6.9
  Sun, Nov 16 58 Notre Dame W 64-63 78%     4 - 0 +7.5 -2.5 +10.1
  Thu, Nov 20 245 Western Michigan W 91-58 97%     5 - 0 +25.4 +10.3 +13.9
  Tue, Nov 25 304 Mount St. Mary's W 113-60 98%     6 - 0 +42.0 +30.1 +9.5
  Fri, Nov 28 95 @Pittsburgh L 66-67 73%     6 - 1 +7.3 +1.7 +5.6
  Sat, Dec 6 61 @Northwestern W 86-82 61%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +16.0 +15.2 +0.7
  Tue, Dec 9 15 Illinois L 79-80 49%    
  Sat, Dec 13 71 West Virginia W 74-67 73%    
  Sat, Dec 20 22 North Carolina L 78-79 49%    
  Tue, Dec 23 284 Grambling St. W 84-60 99%    
  Fri, Jan 2 123 @Rutgers W 78-69 81%    
  Mon, Jan 5 48 Nebraska W 82-75 74%    
  Thu, Jan 8 81 @Oregon W 79-74 67%    
  Sun, Jan 11 49 @Washington W 77-76 54%    
  Sat, Jan 17 27 UCLA W 75-71 64%    
  Tue, Jan 20 102 Minnesota W 77-64 88%    
  Fri, Jan 23 1 @Michigan L 72-87 9%    
  Mon, Jan 26 96 Penn St. W 84-72 87%    
  Sat, Jan 31 30 @Wisconsin L 79-81 43%    
  Thu, Feb 5 93 @Maryland W 80-74 71%    
  Sun, Feb 8 1 Michigan L 75-84 21%    
  Wed, Feb 11 35 USC W 83-78 67%    
  Sat, Feb 14 23 Virginia L 76-77 50%    
  Tue, Feb 17 30 Wisconsin W 82-78 65%    
  Sun, Feb 22 12 @Michigan St. L 69-76 27%    
  Wed, Feb 25 25 @Iowa L 72-75 40%    
  Sun, Mar 1 7 Purdue L 74-77 41%    
  Wed, Mar 4 96 @Penn St. W 81-75 72%    
  Sat, Mar 7 28 Indiana W 78-74 64%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.7 1.1 0.1 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 3.6 3.7 1.3 0.1 9.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.2 4.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.6 2.0 0.1 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.6 2.7 0.3 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.9 3.5 0.5 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.0 0.9 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 4.0 1.4 0.1 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 6.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 4.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.0 2.2 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 15th
16th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.5 8.5 11.3 13.5 14.5 14.2 11.3 7.8 4.8 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 83.3% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
17-3 47.0% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 15.5% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 27.6% 72.4% 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.7% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 2.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 2.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.8% 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 3.3 0.3 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.8% 100.0% 7.4% 92.6% 4.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.5 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.3% 99.9% 4.8% 95.2% 4.9 0.1 0.2 1.3 3.0 3.3 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 14.2% 99.5% 2.6% 96.9% 5.8 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.5 4.0 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
12-8 14.5% 98.3% 1.4% 96.9% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.5 4.0 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 98.3%
11-9 13.5% 93.1% 1.0% 92.1% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.0 3.3 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.9 93.0%
10-10 11.3% 81.0% 0.4% 80.6% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.1 0.0 2.2 80.9%
9-11 8.5% 55.1% 0.3% 54.8% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.7 0.1 3.8 54.9%
8-12 5.5% 22.9% 0.1% 22.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.1 4.2 22.9%
7-13 3.1% 6.0% 0.1% 5.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.9 5.9%
6-14 1.4% 1.4
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 83.4% 3.0% 80.3% 6.3 1.1 2.7 6.7 9.7 11.8 12.5 12.1 9.8 7.2 5.3 4.1 0.2 16.6 82.9%