TCU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#48
Expected Predictive Rating+8.9#72
Pace70.6#157
Improvement+2.6#31

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#81
First Shot+2.7#108
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#107
Layup/Dunks+2.1#113
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#253
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#162
Freethrows+1.3#113
Improvement+1.4#72

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#23
First Shot+5.8#34
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#110
Layups/Dunks+4.3#48
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#139
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#199
Freethrows+1.3#111
Improvement+1.2#77
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.8% 2.1% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 8.4% 9.9% 4.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.1% 49.6% 31.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.5% 48.9% 31.2%
Average Seed 8.2 8.1 8.5
.500 or above 80.4% 85.6% 65.0%
.500 or above in Conference 47.3% 50.5% 37.7%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.1% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 4.0% 6.7%
First Four5.4% 5.6% 5.0%
First Round42.3% 46.8% 28.9%
Second Round21.9% 24.4% 14.6%
Sweet Sixteen6.0% 6.8% 3.5%
Elite Eight1.8% 2.2% 0.8%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Away) - 74.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 9
Quad 24 - 39 - 12
Quad 33 - 112 - 13
Quad 46 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 216 New Orleans L 74-78 94%     0 - 1 -10.3 -7.0 -3.0
  Thu, Nov 6 356 St. Francis (PA) W 104-63 99%     1 - 1 +24.2 +14.8 +5.4
  Mon, Nov 10 195 Lamar W 78-65 93%     2 - 1 +7.6 +12.2 -3.5
  Fri, Nov 14 1 Michigan L 63-67 13%     2 - 2 +19.1 +3.3 +15.8
  Wed, Nov 19 339 UMKC W 81-45 98%     3 - 2 +21.9 +1.5 +19.8
  Thu, Nov 27 15 Florida W 84-80 25%     4 - 2 +21.8 +13.8 +7.7
  Fri, Nov 28 36 Wisconsin W 74-63 42%     5 - 2 +24.0 +2.8 +20.6
  Fri, Dec 5 56 Notre Dame L 85-87 OT 66%     5 - 3 +4.5 +9.9 -5.2
  Sun, Dec 7 145 @North Texas W 70-63 75%    
  Mon, Dec 15 171 Incarnate Word W 79-64 92%    
  Thu, Dec 18 311 Oral Roberts W 88-66 98%    
  Sun, Dec 21 345 Florida A&M W 86-61 99%    
  Mon, Dec 29 312 Jackson St. W 82-60 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 28 Baylor W 78-77 51%    
  Tue, Jan 6 18 @Kansas L 67-75 23%    
  Sat, Jan 10 9 Arizona L 74-79 32%    
  Wed, Jan 14 8 @BYU L 69-80 15%    
  Sat, Jan 17 117 @Utah W 77-72 67%    
  Tue, Jan 20 47 Oklahoma St. W 83-80 60%    
  Sat, Jan 24 28 @Baylor L 75-81 30%    
  Wed, Jan 28 7 Houston L 63-69 30%    
  Sun, Feb 1 64 @Colorado L 75-76 46%    
  Sat, Feb 7 71 Kansas St. W 82-76 71%    
  Tue, Feb 10 6 Iowa St. L 72-78 28%    
  Sat, Feb 14 47 @Oklahoma St. L 80-83 39%    
  Tue, Feb 17 63 @Central Florida L 78-79 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 65 West Virginia W 70-65 69%    
  Tue, Feb 24 82 Arizona St. W 79-72 73%    
  Sat, Feb 28 71 @Kansas St. W 80-79 52%    
  Tue, Mar 3 30 @Texas Tech L 70-76 31%    
  Sat, Mar 7 68 Cincinnati W 75-69 69%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.6 0.4 3.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 5.5 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 3.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 4.6 2.6 0.2 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.7 3.8 0.5 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.2 3.3 4.8 1.0 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 5.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 4.3 3.6 0.5 9.0 10th
11th 0.1 2.6 4.6 1.0 0.0 8.3 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 4.1 1.8 0.1 7.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.7 0.3 6.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.6 0.6 0.0 5.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.8 0.6 0.0 4.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.6 7.2 10.7 12.9 13.8 13.8 11.7 9.2 6.2 3.6 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 88.1% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-3 51.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.1
14-4 18.6% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 6.8% 93.2% 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.7% 100.0% 10.2% 89.8% 4.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.8% 99.6% 9.0% 90.6% 4.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.6%
13-5 3.6% 99.8% 5.2% 94.6% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 6.2% 98.8% 3.2% 95.7% 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 98.8%
11-7 9.2% 95.5% 2.0% 93.6% 7.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.4 3.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.4 95.4%
10-8 11.7% 84.6% 1.3% 83.3% 8.7 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.8 3.2 2.2 0.4 1.8 84.4%
9-9 13.8% 65.7% 0.6% 65.1% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.6 3.5 1.4 0.0 4.7 65.5%
8-10 13.8% 27.8% 0.1% 27.8% 10.4 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.1 0.1 10.0 27.8%
7-11 12.9% 7.0% 0.2% 6.8% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 12.0 6.8%
6-12 10.7% 0.8% 0.8% 11.1 0.1 0.0 10.6 0.8%
5-13 7.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 7.2 0.1%
4-14 4.6% 4.6
3-15 2.3% 2.3
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 45.1% 1.1% 44.0% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.0 7.1 8.8 8.3 7.6 4.6 0.2 54.9 44.5%