TCU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.9#53
Expected Predictive Rating+10.1#59
Pace67.6#234
Improvement-0.8#235

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#111
First Shot+0.7#157
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#61
Layup/Dunks+3.3#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#253
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#253
Freethrows+0.7#127
Improvement-0.4#206

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#25
First Shot+5.0#45
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#31
Layups/Dunks+2.3#98
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#160
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#188
Freethrows+2.2#51
Improvement-0.4#208
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.8% 2.9% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.7% 35.0% 17.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 34.5% 34.8% 17.0%
Average Seed 8.9 8.9 9.2
.500 or above 76.8% 77.2% 48.3%
.500 or above in Conference 32.0% 32.2% 18.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.1% 7.0% 11.7%
First Four6.9% 7.0% 4.0%
First Round31.1% 31.3% 15.6%
Second Round13.7% 13.8% 6.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 2.7% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.8% 0.8% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 98.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 25 - 10
Quad 24 - 39 - 13
Quad 33 - 111 - 14
Quad 47 - 118 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 241 New Orleans L 74-78 94%     0 - 1 -11.6 -9.1 -2.3
  Thu, Nov 6 361 St. Francis (PA) W 104-63 99%     1 - 1 +22.5 +13.0 +5.5
  Mon, Nov 10 253 Lamar W 78-65 94%     2 - 1 +4.8 +10.2 -4.3
  Fri, Nov 14 1 Michigan L 63-67 10%     2 - 2 +19.8 +3.0 +16.8
  Wed, Nov 19 343 UMKC W 81-45 98%     3 - 2 +21.3 +3.1 +17.7
  Thu, Nov 27 12 Florida W 84-80 22%     4 - 2 +22.0 +13.9 +7.8
  Fri, Nov 28 46 Wisconsin W 74-63 45%     5 - 2 +22.1 +2.1 +19.4
  Fri, Dec 5 64 Notre Dame L 85-87 OT 67%     5 - 3 +3.4 +9.7 -6.2
  Sun, Dec 7 146 @North Texas W 65-55 71%     6 - 3 +14.0 +1.7 +12.8
  Mon, Dec 15 162 Incarnate Word W 69-65 89%     7 - 3 +0.7 -2.0 +3.1
  Thu, Dec 18 303 Oral Roberts W 72-53 96%     8 - 3 +8.0 +5.5 +5.7
  Sun, Dec 21 341 Florida A&M W 80-56 98%     9 - 3 +9.5 +7.5 +3.7
  Mon, Dec 29 324 Jackson St. W 82-59 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 27 Baylor L 75-77 43%    
  Tue, Jan 6 17 @Kansas L 63-74 16%    
  Sat, Jan 10 2 Arizona L 68-78 17%    
  Wed, Jan 14 11 @BYU L 66-79 12%    
  Sat, Jan 17 111 @Utah W 75-72 62%    
  Tue, Jan 20 55 Oklahoma St. W 80-76 64%    
  Sat, Jan 24 27 @Baylor L 72-80 23%    
  Wed, Jan 28 8 Houston L 63-70 24%    
  Sun, Feb 1 73 @Colorado L 73-74 46%    
  Sat, Feb 7 58 Kansas St. W 79-75 64%    
  Tue, Feb 10 3 Iowa St. L 67-76 20%    
  Sat, Feb 14 55 @Oklahoma St. L 77-79 42%    
  Tue, Feb 17 49 @Central Florida L 73-77 37%    
  Sat, Feb 21 62 West Virginia W 68-64 66%    
  Tue, Feb 24 71 Arizona St. W 76-71 68%    
  Sat, Feb 28 58 @Kansas St. L 76-78 42%    
  Tue, Mar 3 24 @Texas Tech L 68-76 22%    
  Sat, Mar 7 67 Cincinnati W 70-65 66%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 2.4 0.9 0.1 4.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.6 1.8 0.2 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.2 3.2 0.4 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.5 4.2 4.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.1 2.5 5.9 1.7 0.1 10.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 5.5 3.0 0.2 0.0 9.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 4.1 4.9 0.6 9.9 11th
12th 0.1 2.3 5.4 1.5 0.1 9.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 4.6 2.7 0.2 0.0 8.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.3 0.5 0.0 7.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.5 0.8 0.0 5.7 15th
16th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.0 3.3 16th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.8 6.9 11.2 14.0 15.1 15.0 12.5 9.0 5.7 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 72.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 59.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 14.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 2.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 4.5% 95.5% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.5% 100.0% 2.6% 97.4% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.3% 100.0% 3.6% 96.4% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 2.8% 99.9% 1.4% 98.5% 7.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 5.7% 95.8% 0.9% 94.9% 8.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.2 95.7%
10-8 9.0% 88.9% 0.6% 88.3% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.8 1.6 0.3 1.0 88.8%
9-9 12.5% 72.9% 0.3% 72.6% 9.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 3.6 1.3 0.0 3.4 72.8%
8-10 15.0% 36.7% 0.2% 36.4% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.1 0.1 9.5 36.5%
7-11 15.1% 10.8% 0.1% 10.7% 10.9 0.1 0.2 1.2 0.2 13.5 10.7%
6-12 14.0% 1.4% 0.2% 1.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.8 1.3%
5-13 11.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 11.2 0.1%
4-14 6.9% 6.9
3-15 3.8% 3.8
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 34.7% 0.3% 34.4% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.6 6.7 7.7 7.4 6.2 0.3 65.3 34.5%