Duke
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+22.5#3
Expected Predictive Rating+28.0#2
Pace67.1#252
Improvement-0.1#201

Offense
Total Offense+11.1#9
First Shot+6.6#28
After Offensive Rebound+4.4#10
Layup/Dunks+4.6#51
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#42
Freethrows+0.7#141
Improvement+0.0#185

Defense
Total Defense+11.5#2
First Shot+11.4#4
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#188
Layups/Dunks+6.1#26
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#280
Freethrows+5.7#3
Improvement-0.2#205
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 13.5% 13.6% 7.0%
#1 Seed 50.2% 50.4% 26.0%
Top 2 Seed 82.1% 82.3% 59.5%
Top 4 Seed 97.9% 98.0% 92.5%
Top 6 Seed 99.8% 99.8% 99.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.8 1.8 2.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.8% 99.1%
Conference Champion 64.4% 64.5% 45.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round98.2% 98.3% 94.7%
Sweet Sixteen78.8% 78.8% 68.3%
Elite Eight53.9% 54.0% 39.6%
Final Four32.4% 32.5% 21.6%
Championship Game18.3% 18.4% 9.3%
National Champion9.7% 9.7% 4.4%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 99.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 37 - 3
Quad 1b7 - 114 - 4
Quad 27 - 121 - 4
Quad 33 - 023 - 4
Quad 46 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 46 Texas W 75-60 86%     1 - 0 +25.9 +8.8 +17.9
  Sat, Nov 8 289 Western Carolina W 95-54 99%     2 - 0 +30.8 +10.3 +17.0
  Tue, Nov 11 340 @Army W 114-59 99%     3 - 0 +46.7 +26.3 +15.4
  Fri, Nov 14 198 Indiana St. W 100-62 99%     4 - 0 +32.6 +18.1 +11.2
  Tue, Nov 18 18 Kansas W 78-66 73%     5 - 0 +28.1 +19.5 +9.3
  Fri, Nov 21 342 Niagara W 100-42 99.7%    6 - 0 +43.6 +29.8 +18.5
  Sun, Nov 23 313 Howard W 93-56 99.5%    7 - 0 +25.5 +14.5 +10.7
  Thu, Nov 27 20 Arkansas W 80-71 76%     8 - 0 +24.2 +14.6 +9.6
  Tue, Dec 2 14 Florida W 67-66 76%     9 - 0 +16.0 +7.3 +8.8
  Sat, Dec 6 12 @Michigan St. W 66-60 54%     10 - 0 +27.5 +11.7 +16.3
  Tue, Dec 16 161 Lipscomb W 86-60 99%    
  Sat, Dec 20 29 Texas Tech W 77-68 80%    
  Wed, Dec 31 135 Georgia Tech W 83-59 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 101 @Florida St. W 85-70 91%    
  Tue, Jan 6 13 @Louisville W 78-77 55%    
  Sat, Jan 10 40 SMU W 83-69 89%    
  Wed, Jan 14 76 @California W 78-66 86%    
  Sat, Jan 17 85 @Stanford W 81-68 88%    
  Sat, Jan 24 50 Wake Forest W 82-67 91%    
  Mon, Jan 26 13 Louisville W 81-74 74%    
  Sat, Jan 31 67 @Virginia Tech W 79-68 84%    
  Tue, Feb 3 145 Boston College W 80-55 99%    
  Sat, Feb 7 22 @North Carolina W 77-72 66%    
  Tue, Feb 10 95 @Pittsburgh W 76-62 90%    
  Sat, Feb 14 33 Clemson W 76-64 86%    
  Mon, Feb 16 60 Syracuse W 79-63 93%    
  Sat, Feb 21 1 Michigan L 73-77 37%    
  Tue, Feb 24 58 @Notre Dame W 74-64 81%    
  Sat, Feb 28 23 Virginia W 78-67 83%    
  Mon, Mar 2 36 @North Carolina St. W 81-74 72%    
  Sat, Mar 7 22 North Carolina W 80-69 83%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.7 13.7 20.6 17.4 7.4 64.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.9 7.2 5.7 1.4 0.1 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 5.0 9.5 14.9 19.9 22.0 17.4 7.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 7.4    7.4 0.0
17-1 99.7% 17.4    16.6 0.8 0.0
16-2 93.6% 20.6    16.3 4.0 0.2 0.0
15-3 69.2% 13.7    7.2 5.3 1.2 0.1
14-4 31.3% 4.7    1.1 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 6.6% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 64.4% 64.4 48.5 12.2 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 7.4% 100.0% 64.2% 35.8% 1.1 6.4 1.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 17.4% 100.0% 57.0% 43.0% 1.2 13.8 3.5 0.1 100.0%
16-2 22.0% 100.0% 50.1% 49.9% 1.4 14.7 6.8 0.5 0.0 100.0%
15-3 19.9% 100.0% 44.2% 55.8% 1.6 9.6 8.5 1.6 0.1 100.0%
14-4 14.9% 100.0% 37.9% 62.1% 2.0 4.3 7.1 3.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.5% 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 2.5 1.2 3.8 3.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 5.0% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 3.1 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 2.4% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 3.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 1.1% 100.0% 13.3% 86.7% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.3% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.1% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 45.0% 55.0% 1.8 50.2 31.9 11.5 4.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 1.1 90.2 9.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 85.5 14.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 90.1 9.9