IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Duke
Atlantic Coast
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+22.0	#3
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.8	#275
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+12.2	#5

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+9.9	#3

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	8.9%	10.2%	3.8%
#1 Seed	31.9%	35.7%	17.4%
Top 2 Seed	54.6%	59.5%	35.9%
Top 4 Seed	77.4%	81.7%	61.0%
Top 6 Seed	88.4%	91.4%	76.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid	97.6%	98.6%	93.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	96.0%	97.5%	90.9%
Average Seed	3.0	2.7	3.9

.500 or above	99.4%	99.8%	98.1%
.500 or above in Conference	98.6%	99.0%	96.8%
Conference Champion	53.4%	56.5%	41.7%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.8%	0.5%	1.7%
First Round	97.2%	98.4%	93.0%
Second Round	90.4%	92.6%	82.3%
Sweet Sixteen	66.1%	69.2%	54.5%
Elite Eight	42.3%	45.1%	31.6%
Final Four	25.3%	27.4%	17.2%
Championship Game	14.6%	16.1%	8.6%
National Champion	8.0%	9.1%	4.1%

Next Game: Texas (Neutral) - 79.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	5 - 4	5 - 4
Quad 1b	5 - 1	10 - 5
Quad 2	7 - 1	18 - 6
Quad 3	4 - 0	22 - 6
Quad 4	5 - 0	27 - 6

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2025	36	Texas	W	75-66	79%
Nov 08, 2025	273	Western Carolina	W	88-57	99.8%
Nov 11, 2025	353	@ Army	W	86-54	99.8%
Nov 14, 2025	170	Indiana St.	W	90-64	99%
Nov 18, 2025	13	Kansas	W	73-69	65%
Nov 21, 2025	335	Niagara	W	85-50	99.9%
Nov 23, 2025	324	Howard	W	91-56	99.9%
Nov 27, 2025	17	Arkansas	W	75-70	67%
Dec 02, 2025	5	Florida	W	76-72	64%
Dec 06, 2025	21	@ Michigan St.	W	71-68	60%
Dec 16, 2025	188	Lipscomb	W	82-55	99%
Dec 20, 2025	12	Texas Tech	W	72-68	64%
Dec 31, 2025	83	Georgia Tech	W	80-62	94%
Jan 03, 2026	78	@ Florida St.	W	78-66	84%
Jan 06, 2026	11	@ Louisville	W	74-73	54%
Jan 10, 2026	44	SMU	W	79-66	86%
Jan 14, 2026	91	@ California	W	78-65	87%
Jan 17, 2026	95	@ Stanford	W	76-62	87%
Jan 24, 2026	67	Wake Forest	W	78-62	91%
Jan 26, 2026	11	Louisville	W	77-70	73%
Jan 31, 2026	76	@ Virginia Tech	W	74-62	84%
Feb 03, 2026	100	Boston College	W	80-60	95%
Feb 07, 2026	25	@ North Carolina	W	77-73	63%
Feb 10, 2026	77	@ Pittsburgh	W	76-64	84%
Feb 14, 2026	42	Clemson	W	73-60	85%
Feb 16, 2026	64	Syracuse	W	81-65	91%
Feb 21, 2026	6	Michigan	W	75-72	58%
Feb 24, 2026	63	@ Notre Dame	W	72-62	79%
Feb 28, 2026	46	Virginia	W	70-57	86%
Mar 02, 2026	31	@ North Carolina St.	W	71-66	67%
Mar 07, 2026	25	North Carolina	W	80-70	79%
Projected Record						25 - 6	15 - 3

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.6	3.5	9.6	15.8	15.6	8.4		53.4	1st
2nd												0.0	0.4	2.9	6.7	6.4	2.2	0.1			18.7	2nd
3rd												0.1	1.6	4.3	3.2	0.7	0.0				10.0	3rd
4th										0.0	0.0	0.7	2.6	2.3	0.4	0.0					6.0	4th
5th										0.0	0.2	1.4	1.7	0.5	0.0						3.8	5th
6th										0.0	0.6	1.4	0.5	0.0							2.6	6th
7th									0.0	0.2	0.9	0.6	0.1								1.8	7th
8th									0.0	0.5	0.6	0.1									1.2	8th
9th								0.0	0.1	0.5	0.2	0.0									0.9	9th
10th								0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0										0.6	10th
11th								0.1	0.2	0.0											0.3	11th
12th							0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0											0.2	12th
13th						0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0											0.2	13th
14th						0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0												0.1	14th
15th					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0													0.1	15th
16th				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0														0.0	16th
17th					0.0	0.0															0.0	17th
18th				0.0																	0.0	18th

Total				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.6	2.7	4.3	6.9	10.5	13.8	16.7	18.0	15.7	8.4			Total

Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	8.4		8.4	0.0
17-1	99.5%	15.6		14.6	1.0
16-2	87.8%	15.8		11.7	3.9	0.3	0.0
15-3	57.3%	9.6		4.7	3.8	1.0	0.1	0.0
14-4	25.1%	3.5		0.9	1.5	0.9	0.2	0.0
13-5	5.3%	0.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.5%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	53.4%	53.4		40.2	10.4	2.3	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	8.4%		100.0%	71.1%	28.9%	1.2		6.9	1.4	0.1	0.0															100.0%
17-1	15.7%		100.0%	62.2%	37.8%	1.4		10.8	4.3	0.6	0.1															100.0%
16-2	18.0%		100.0%	49.9%	50.1%	1.7		8.5	6.7	1.9	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0												100.0%
15-3	16.7%		100.0%	40.3%	59.7%	2.4		4.3	5.9	3.8	1.7	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0										100.0%
14-4	13.8%		99.9%	32.7%	67.2%	3.3		1.1	3.2	3.9	3.0	1.4	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0								0.0		99.8%
13-5	10.5%		99.8%	25.0%	74.8%	4.4		0.2	1.0	2.2	2.5	2.1	1.3	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0							0.0		99.7%
12-6	6.9%		97.5%	16.9%	80.6%	5.6		0.0	0.2	0.7	1.1	1.4	1.2	1.0	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.2		97.0%
11-7	4.3%		93.9%	11.8%	82.1%	6.7			0.0	0.2	0.3	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.1						0.3		93.1%
10-8	2.7%		84.0%	8.3%	75.7%	7.7				0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0					0.4		82.5%
9-9	1.6%		68.8%	3.6%	65.2%	8.8					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0					0.5		67.7%
8-10	0.8%		41.6%	0.5%	41.1%	9.7							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0					0.5		41.3%
7-11	0.4%		19.4%	4.3%	15.1%	10.1									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.3		15.8%
6-12	0.2%		5.2%		5.2%	10.5											0.0	0.0						0.1		5.2%
5-13	0.0%																							0.0
4-14	0.0%																							0.0
3-15	0.0%																							0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%		97.6%	40.6%	57.0%	3.0		31.9	22.7	13.4	9.5	6.5	4.5	3.6	2.5	1.5	1.2	0.4	0.0					2.4		96.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	1.7%	100.0%	1.1	89.5	10.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.2%	100.0%	1.1	85.7	14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	100.0%	1.1	86.6	13.4