Michigan
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+26.4#1
Expected Predictive Rating+27.5#4
Pace78.0#23
Improvement+4.9#3

Offense
Total Offense+11.9#4
First Shot+9.0#9
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#39
Layup/Dunks+7.8#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#92
Freethrows+0.6#148
Improvement+2.8#15

Defense
Total Defense+14.5#1
First Shot+13.4#1
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#111
Layups/Dunks+20.1#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-8.5#364
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#307
Freethrows+5.5#4
Improvement+2.1#36
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 33.4% 33.9% 25.1%
#1 Seed 77.4% 78.0% 67.7%
Top 2 Seed 96.2% 96.5% 91.6%
Top 4 Seed 99.8% 99.8% 99.2%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.3 1.3 1.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 71.6% 72.3% 61.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.6% 99.6% 99.3%
Sweet Sixteen88.3% 88.5% 85.0%
Elite Eight71.1% 71.5% 64.9%
Final Four53.1% 53.7% 44.0%
Championship Game37.7% 38.2% 28.9%
National Champion26.2% 26.7% 18.0%

Next Game: Villanova (Home) - 94.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 38 - 3
Quad 1b7 - 115 - 3
Quad 29 - 024 - 3
Quad 35 - 028 - 3
Quad 42 - 030 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 146 Oakland W 121-78 99%     1 - 0 +40.9 +30.5 +6.2
  Tue, Nov 11 50 Wake Forest W 85-84 OT 92%     2 - 0 +11.5 +1.3 +10.1
  Fri, Nov 14 47 @TCU W 67-63 88%     3 - 0 +17.8 +2.8 +15.0
  Wed, Nov 19 136 Middle Tennessee W 86-61 99%     4 - 0 +23.7 +2.7 +18.3
  Mon, Nov 24 56 San Diego St. W 94-54 93%     5 - 0 +50.0 +18.9 +28.3
  Tue, Nov 25 26 Auburn W 102-72 87%     6 - 0 +44.2 +32.1 +11.7
  Wed, Nov 26 4 Gonzaga W 101-61 68%     7 - 0 +61.6 +25.5 +30.9
  Sat, Dec 6 123 Rutgers W 101-60 99%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +40.5 +24.9 +14.1
  Tue, Dec 9 38 Villanova W 81-64 94%    
  Sat, Dec 13 93 @Maryland W 86-68 95%    
  Sun, Dec 21 225 La Salle W 90-57 99.9%   
  Mon, Dec 29 80 McNeese St. W 84-62 98%    
  Fri, Jan 2 35 USC W 90-73 94%    
  Tue, Jan 6 96 @Penn St. W 88-70 95%    
  Sat, Jan 10 30 Wisconsin W 89-73 93%    
  Wed, Jan 14 49 @Washington W 84-71 88%    
  Sun, Jan 18 81 @Oregon W 85-69 93%    
  Tue, Jan 20 28 Indiana W 84-69 92%    
  Fri, Jan 23 24 Ohio St. W 87-72 91%    
  Tue, Jan 27 48 Nebraska W 88-69 95%    
  Fri, Jan 30 12 @Michigan St. W 75-70 67%    
  Thu, Feb 5 96 Penn St. W 91-67 98%    
  Sun, Feb 8 24 @Ohio St. W 84-75 79%    
  Wed, Feb 11 61 @Northwestern W 84-70 90%    
  Sat, Feb 14 27 UCLA W 81-66 92%    
  Tue, Feb 17 7 @Purdue W 78-75 61%    
  Sat, Feb 21 3 Duke W 77-73 63%    
  Tue, Feb 24 102 Minnesota W 83-59 99%    
  Fri, Feb 27 15 @Illinois W 82-77 69%    
  Thu, Mar 5 25 @Iowa W 78-69 78%    
  Sun, Mar 8 12 Michigan St. W 78-67 83%    
Projected Record 28 - 3 18 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.5 13.3 21.8 21.0 10.4 71.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.3 5.5 2.0 0.2 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.4 6.9 12.8 19.1 23.8 21.3 10.4 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 10.4    10.4
19-1 98.9% 21.0    20.1 1.0
18-2 91.4% 21.8    17.4 4.2 0.2
17-3 69.5% 13.3    7.7 4.7 0.8 0.0
16-4 35.0% 4.5    1.4 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 9.4% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 71.6% 71.6 57.1 12.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 10.4% 100.0% 69.0% 31.0% 1.1 9.8 0.6 100.0%
19-1 21.3% 100.0% 62.9% 37.1% 1.1 19.5 1.8 0.0 100.0%
18-2 23.8% 100.0% 55.7% 44.3% 1.1 20.7 3.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 19.1% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 1.2 15.0 4.0 0.2 100.0%
16-4 12.8% 100.0% 42.3% 57.7% 1.4 8.1 4.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.9% 100.0% 36.5% 63.5% 1.7 3.2 2.9 0.7 0.1 100.0%
14-6 3.4% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 2.0 0.9 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 1.5% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 2.6 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.6% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 3.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.2% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 4.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 52.6% 47.4% 1.3 77.4 18.9 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.1% 100.0% 1.0 95.4 4.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 100.0% 1.1 94.6 5.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 1.1 93.7 6.3