San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#56
Expected Predictive Rating+6.3#94
Pace69.1#193
Improvement-0.3#208

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#60
First Shot+5.5#43
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#180
Layup/Dunks+3.5#71
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#150
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#118
Freethrows-0.5#208
Improvement+0.9#106

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#57
First Shot+1.7#107
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#32
Layups/Dunks+2.1#101
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#70
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#295
Freethrows+1.2#114
Improvement-1.2#289
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.7% 1.8% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.0% 31.8% 18.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.4% 13.9% 4.9%
Average Seed 9.9 9.9 10.6
.500 or above 93.2% 94.0% 79.9%
.500 or above in Conference 92.6% 93.0% 86.8%
Conference Champion 27.5% 28.1% 17.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four5.0% 5.2% 2.4%
First Round28.6% 29.3% 18.0%
Second Round11.9% 12.2% 6.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 3.0% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 94.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 25 - 37 - 8
Quad 37 - 214 - 10
Quad 46 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 280 Long Beach St. W 77-45 95%     1 - 0 +22.5 -2.2 +24.2
  Sun, Nov 9 168 Idaho St. W 73-57 90%     2 - 0 +12.2 +8.2 +6.1
  Tue, Nov 18 147 Troy L 107-108 2OT 87%     2 - 1 -3.3 +10.5 -13.6
  Mon, Nov 24 1 Michigan L 54-94 7%     2 - 2 -13.6 -8.2 -2.5
  Tue, Nov 25 81 Oregon W 97-80 62%     3 - 2 +24.0 +26.7 -2.7
  Wed, Nov 26 34 Baylor L 81-91 39%     3 - 3 +3.0 +10.6 -7.5
  Wed, Dec 3 83 Utah Valley W 77-66 73%     4 - 3 +14.6 +7.0 +7.6
  Wed, Dec 10 214 Lamar W 76-59 94%    
  Wed, Dec 17 331 Air Force W 80-57 98%    
  Sat, Dec 20 5 Arizona L 72-83 15%    
  Tue, Dec 30 182 @San Jose St. W 76-67 79%    
  Sat, Jan 3 52 Boise St. W 72-69 59%    
  Tue, Jan 6 106 @Nevada W 74-71 60%    
  Sat, Jan 10 183 Fresno St. W 83-68 91%    
  Wed, Jan 14 107 @Wyoming W 76-73 60%    
  Sat, Jan 17 84 New Mexico W 82-75 72%    
  Wed, Jan 21 99 @Grand Canyon W 74-72 57%    
  Sat, Jan 24 132 @UNLV W 83-78 68%    
  Wed, Jan 28 72 Colorado St. W 77-72 68%    
  Sat, Jan 31 51 @Utah St. L 73-76 37%    
  Tue, Feb 3 107 Wyoming W 79-70 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 331 @Air Force W 77-60 94%    
  Sat, Feb 14 106 Nevada W 77-68 78%    
  Tue, Feb 17 99 Grand Canyon W 77-69 76%    
  Sat, Feb 21 72 @Colorado St. L 74-75 47%    
  Wed, Feb 25 51 Utah St. W 76-73 59%    
  Sat, Feb 28 84 @New Mexico W 79-78 51%    
  Tue, Mar 3 52 @Boise St. L 69-72 39%    
  Fri, Mar 6 132 UNLV W 86-75 84%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.5 4.6 7.7 6.9 4.4 1.7 0.4 27.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.0 6.0 6.9 3.3 0.9 0.1 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 6.0 5.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 15.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.9 4.4 1.1 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.5 3.6 0.8 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.9 0.9 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.2 0.8 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.6 6.0 8.6 11.4 13.5 14.1 13.3 11.3 7.8 4.5 1.7 0.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
18-2 98.4% 4.4    4.2 0.3
17-3 88.7% 6.9    5.6 1.3 0.1
16-4 68.6% 7.7    4.7 2.7 0.4 0.0
15-5 34.6% 4.6    1.7 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.4% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.5% 27.5 18.5 6.8 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 99.2% 62.3% 36.9% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.8%
19-1 1.7% 94.7% 48.4% 46.3% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 89.7%
18-2 4.5% 85.2% 43.3% 41.9% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.7 73.9%
17-3 7.8% 69.2% 36.9% 32.3% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.8 1.3 0.0 2.4 51.2%
16-4 11.3% 52.9% 30.7% 22.2% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 2.6 0.1 5.3 32.1%
15-5 13.3% 38.2% 25.5% 12.7% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.2 0.2 8.2 17.0%
14-6 14.1% 26.5% 20.9% 5.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.8 0.3 10.4 7.1%
13-7 13.5% 17.7% 15.8% 1.9% 11.1 0.0 0.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 11.1 2.2%
12-8 11.4% 11.9% 11.4% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 10.1 0.6%
11-9 8.6% 7.8% 7.7% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 7.9 0.1%
10-10 6.0% 5.8% 5.8% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.7
9-11 3.6% 3.2% 3.2% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
8-12 2.0% 3.6% 3.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
7-13 1.1% 2.7% 2.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 31.0% 20.4% 10.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.5 6.6 13.4 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 69.0 13.4%