San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +11.4 48
Results Rating +10.1 59
Consistency 0.14 118
Pace 70.8 112
Improvement +0.2 180

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 90 B- B- C+ B- D
Defense A- 22 B+ B- A C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 211 B+ 66% 38 +2.2 98
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 80 C- 36% 244 +2.4 60
Three Pointers 34% 316 B 37% 46 -1.8 246
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 314 B +3.9 64
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 91
Second Chance C+ 31.8% 129 B 1.12 66 B- 0.36 81
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.1% 149
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 177
Turnovers C+ 16.3% 149
Freethrows C+ 0.32 136 B 76% 39 B- 0.24 94
Total Offense B- +3.5 90

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots A- 64% 11 A 6.3% 11
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 33% 77 C- 6.1% 261
Three Pointers C- 81% 242 A- 0.0% 3
Total B 62% 60 B+ 4.1% 32


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 357 B+ 51% 33 -7.7 9
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 198 A 30% 6 -1.8 41
Three Pointers 52% 5 B- 32% 73 +3.6 330
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.6 76 A- -5.2 25
1st FG Attempt B+ 0.90 28
Second Chance C+ 28.4% 104 B- 0.96 66 B- 0.27 73
Turnovers from Steals B 11.4% 51
Other Turnovers A+ 10.0% 3
Turnovers A 21.4% 11
Freethrows C- 0.32 229 C- 73% 213 C- 0.23 234
Total Defense A- +8.0 22

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 177 A 18.7% 13
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 50 A 10.2% 11
Three Pointers C- 85% 222 C- 0.7% 190
Total D+ 60% 279 B 7.7% 39

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.0 48 18.0 285
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 78 0.12 38
Consistency 0.12 111 0.13 244
Improvement -1.3 259 +1.5 102

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Longshot
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 54 49 42
Results Rating Rank 70 60 42
Conference Record 13 - 7 14 - 6 14 - 6
Conference Finish 3 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 10
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40% 42% 29%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21% 23% 13%
Average Seed 10.8 10.7 10.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 25% 30% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four14% 15% 10%
First Round33% 35% 24%
Second Round11% 12% 7%
Sweet Sixteen2% 3% 1%
Elite Eight1% 1% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: UNLV (Home) - 83.0% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 7
Quad 27 - 28 - 9
Quad 36 - 214 - 11
Quad 46 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 268 Long Beach St. W 77 - 45 96% +13  86% 1 - 0 A +23 D+ -4 D- A F A+ +27 A+ A- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 266 Idaho St. W 73 - 57 96% +11  99% 2 - 0 B- +7 C +1 A+ F F A +9 C- A- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 151 Troy L 107 - 108 2OT 90% -3  20% 2 - 1 C- -4 B +6 B- A F F -10 C+ D- D
 Mon, Nov 24 2 Michigan L 54 - 94 8% -18  4% 2 - 2 D- -13 F -11 C- F F C+ +1 B+ D+ B
 Tue, Nov 25 83 Oregon W 97 - 80 67% +10  88% 3 - 2 A+ +24 A+ +26 A+ A+ F C- -2 D A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 47 Baylor L 81 - 91 49% -4  18% 3 - 3 C +2 B+ +8 A- F+ B+ D -6 D- A D+
 Wed, Dec 3 97 Utah Valley W 77 - 66 80% +6  87% 4 - 3 B+ +14 B- +4 C A B A +9 B B A+
 Wed, Dec 10 245 Lamar W 89 - 71 95% +10  82% 5 - 3 B +10 B- +5 B- C+ C+ B +4 D+ A- A+
 Wed, Dec 17 344 Air Force W 81 - 58 99% +8  82% 6 - 3 1 - 0 B- +7 B +7 B- A+ D B- +2 B- D- B
 Sat, Dec 20 4 Arizona L 45 - 68 10% -5  42% 6 - 4 C+ +3 F -12 F D- A+ A+ +12 A+ B- B+
 Tue, Dec 30 223 @San Jose St. W 81 - 68 87% +4  87% 7 - 4 2 - 0 B+ +12 C- -1 C+ A F A+ +13 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 59 Boise St. W 110 - 107 3OT 69% +6  64% 8 - 4 3 - 0 B +9 B +7 A- A C+ C+ +2 B- A+ B
 Tue, Jan 6 81 @Nevada W 73 - 68 55% -2  36% 9 - 4 4 - 0 A- +15 B+ +9 C A+ D- A- +7 A+ D- C
 Sat, Jan 10 129 Fresno St. W 71 - 52 87% +15  99% 10 - 4 5 - 0 A +18 D- -7 F A+ A- A+ +24 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 100 @Wyoming W 74 - 57 64% +11  80% 11 - 4 6 - 0 A+ +25 B +6 B D A A+ +20 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 53 New Mexico W 83 - 79 65% +3  72% 12 - 4 7 - 0 B+ +12 C+ +3 A- C- D+ A- +8 A- C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 62 @Grand Canyon L 69 - 70 47% -2  24% 12 - 5 7 - 1 B +11 C+ +2 D C+ A- A +9 B- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 103 @UNLV W 82 - 71 65% +4  59% 13 - 5 8 - 1 A +18 A- +10 A+ F D+ A- +8 D+ A- B+
 Wed, Jan 28 85 Colorado St. W 73 - 50 77% +10  77% 14 - 5 9 - 1 A+ +27 B +7 A B+ F A+ +23 A+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 31 42 @Utah St. L 66 - 71 33% +2  66% 14 - 6 9 - 2 B +11 D- -8 C- F A- A+ +19 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Feb 3 100 Wyoming W 72 - 63 82% +7  83% 15 - 6 10 - 2 B +11 C- -0 F+ A+ B A+ +12 A B+ A
 Sat, Feb 7 344 @Air Force W 88 - 54 97% +20  89% 16 - 6 11 - 2 A+ +24 A- +9 A F+ A+ A+ +15 C A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 81 Nevada W 71 - 57 75% +9  84% 17 - 6 12 - 2 A +18 B- +5 C- A B- A+ +15 A+ F A+
 Tue, Feb 17 62 Grand Canyon L 63 - 73 69% -4  11% 17 - 7 12 - 3 C- -4 D- -7 F A+ C- B- +3 A F C+
 Sat, Feb 21 85 @Colorado St. L 74 - 83 57% -6  21% 17 - 8 12 - 4 C +1 C+ +3 F B- D C- -2 B F C+
 Wed, Feb 25 42 Utah St. W 89 - 72 56% +11  77% 18 - 8 13 - 4 A+ +27 A+ +17 A+ A+ A- A +10 B+ A+ B
 Sat, Feb 28 53 @New Mexico L 76 - 81 42% +2  56% 18 - 9 13 - 5 B +9 B+ +8 B+ D+ A+ C+ +1 A+ D- F
 Tue, Mar 3 59 @Boise St. L 77 - 86 46% -11  0% 18 - 10 13 - 6 C+ +3 B+ +9 B F+ A D -6 F F A+
 Fri, Mar 6 103 UNLV W 83 - 73 83%
Totals 19 - 10 14 - 6 +11 B- +3 A B D A- +8 B B B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B+ C- B B 37% 47% 34% D B- C+ B B- C+ C+ B B- A- B+ A B- A- 29% 20% 52% B- B+ C+ B- B- A C- C- C-
1.14 66% 36% 37% +4 -1 1.08 32% 1.1 .36 16% .32 76% .24 0.97 51% 30% 32% -5 -1 0.90 28% 1.0 .27 21% .32 73% .23
Nov
4		 Long Beach St. D+ F+ F A+ D- 43% 20% 37% C+ D- B A+ A F C- C- D+ A+ A- A A+ A+ 37% 22% 41% F+ A+ F+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+
1.08 50% 0% 47% -3 0 0.96 34% 1.5 .51 21% .34 74% .25 0.63 50% 27% 20% -14 0 0.73 32% 0.6 .18 29% .10 40% .04
Nov
9		 Idaho St. C A+ F B A+ 46% 20% 35% C+ A+ D- F F F F D+ F A D- A+ C+ C 40% 12% 49% D+ C- D+ A+ A- A+ D+ B- C-
1.18 90% 33% 38% +16 +1 1.35 24% 0.6 .14 19% .24 75% .18 0.92 65% 20% 33% 0 +1 1.05 35% 0.7 .23 31% .33 71% .23
Nov
18		 Troy B A- D+ A+ A- 29% 38% 33% F B- A+ C+ A F A+ C A+ F C+ F+ B- C- 31% 23% 45% A+ C+ D+ F+ D- D F C- F
1.19 67% 40% 41% +7 -3 1.10 45% 1.1 .48 22% .69 71% .49 1.21 55% 47% 31% -1 -1 0.98 36% 1.1 .40 15% .56 74% .42
Nov
24		 Michigan F F D- B C+ 18% 45% 36% F C- C+ F F F A- A+ A C+ D+ F B- B+ 38% 7% 55% B- B+ C- D+ D+ B C+ B+ B
0.71 30% 28% 35% -9 -5 0.75 26% 0.3 .07 23% .27 81% .22 1.24 67% 50% 32% +3 +2 1.11 41% 1.5 .59 17% .35 68% .24
Nov
25		 Oregon A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 29% 31% 40% D+ A+ A A+ A+ F F A+ D- C- A+ F F D- 36% 12% 52% C- D C A+ A+ B- D- F F
1.38 93% 69% 52% +31 -2 1.60 40% 1.1 .45 21% .16 89% .14 1.14 39% 50% 46% +4 +1 1.12 35% 0.7 .25 18% .38 82% .31
Nov
26		 Baylor B+ A D- A B+ 31% 27% 42% A- A- F C- F+ B+ B- A B+ D D- F+ D+ C- 43% 12% 45% F D- A B A D+ F C F
1.15 71% 33% 39% +6 -1 1.11 19% 1.0 .19 14% .28 82% .23 1.29 71% 50% 36% +9 +1 1.22 30% 1.0 .30 13% .49 73% .36
Dec
3		 Utah Valley B- A- F+ B- B- 35% 35% 29% F C B+ A- A B A+ A- A+ A D+ A+ D B- 31% 16% 53% A B B B- B A+ C C+ C
1.10 65% 29% 36% 0 -2 0.98 36% 1.2 .42 19% .49 79% .38 0.94 64% 0% 38% -1 0 1.00 32% 1.0 .32 27% .29 67% .20
Dec
10		 Lamar B- A+ D A+ B+ 31% 37% 31% F B- B D C+ C+ A+ B A+ B A+ A+ F D 15% 25% 60% C D+ A+ C+ A- A+ F D- F
1.17 75% 32% 44% +7 -3 1.12 36% 0.9 .33 17% .49 74% .36 0.93 38% 15% 44% 0 -2 0.98 24% 0.9 .22 24% .34 75% .26
Dec
17		 Air Force B B- D- A C+ 47% 18% 35% B+ B- A A- A+ D D- C- D- B- B+ C B B 35% 8% 58% D B- C+ F D- B D+ F F+
1.27 65% 33% 41% +6 +1 1.16 39% 1.2 .48 17% .25 69% .17 0.91 50% 33% 30% -6 +1 0.93 21% 1.5 .32 23% .33 75% .25
Dec
20		 Arizona F B+ F F F 30% 44% 26% D- F C+ F D- A+ A+ B A+ A+ A- F A- A 24% 31% 44% A A+ F A+ B- B+ F A F+
0.72 60% 18% 8% -18 -4 0.58 24% 0.4 .10 13% .35 74% .25 1.08 55% 50% 30% 0 -2 0.98 53% 0.7 .37 17% .52 67% .35
Dec
30		 San Jose St. C- D+ D+ A+ B- 46% 30% 24% D- C+ B A A F A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 32% 21% 47% F+ A+ C- C- C- A+ F F F
1.11 57% 36% 55% +6 -1 1.13 39% 1.4 .54 22% .46 73% .33 0.93 40% 40% 23% -13 -1 0.74 33% 1.1 .36 25% .44 92% .40
Jan
3		 Boise St. B C- A A+ A- 44% 24% 32% B A- C- A+ A C+ A+ D- A C+ D- C+ B- C+ 30% 15% 55% B B- B+ A+ A+ B D F F
1.15 55% 50% 43% +6 0 1.14 20% 1.8 .35 15% .39 66% .26 1.12 67% 36% 33% +2 0 1.06 30% 0.7 .21 18% .39 87% .34
Jan
6		 Nevada B+ A+ A F B- 32% 32% 36% F C A+ A+ A+ D- B C- B- A- D+ A+ A+ A+ 20% 29% 51% A A+ C+ F D- C C+ F D
1.14 71% 50% 19% 0 -2 0.98 40% 1.6 .63 20% .37 68% .25 1.06 60% 20% 27% -10 -2 0.76 33% 1.3 .44 14% .36 90% .33
Jan
10		 Fresno St. D- C F F F 34% 20% 46% C F C+ A+ A+ A- D- B- D A+ A+ A B+ A+ 26% 19% 54% B A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+
0.96 60% 25% 15% -15 0 0.71 30% 1.8 .53 15% .19 75% .14 0.70 40% 27% 29% -11 -1 0.79 13% 0.0 .00 23% .12 100% .12
Jan
14		 Wyoming B D- A+ A+ B 50% 17% 33% C+ B F A D A F A+ F A+ A+ A+ B A+ 32% 4% 64% C- A+ A+ A+ A+ C D+ A C+
1.12 50% 56% 41% +2 +1 1.10 17% 1.2 .20 12% .24 79% .19 0.87 38% 0% 31% -11 +2 0.84 24% 0.6 .13 17% .35 68% .24
Jan
17		 New Mexico C+ A+ D+ A- A+ 22% 47% 31% F A- D+ C+ C- D+ A+ C+ A+ A- F+ A+ D B+ 28% 19% 54% A A- A F C+ A+ D+ B- D+
1.06 91% 38% 38% +8 -5 1.10 24% 1.0 .24 20% .48 73% .35 1.01 67% 0% 38% -2 0 0.98 24% 1.2 .29 22% .34 71% .25
Jan
21		 Grand Canyon C+ C- B+ F D+ 35% 37% 28% D- D B D+ C+ A- C A+ B A A+ A+ F B 40% 18% 42% C B- A A+ A+ A+ F D+ F
0.98 53% 45% 13% -8 -2 0.81 29% 1.0 .29 14% .31 84% .26 0.99 39% 13% 47% -4 0 0.96 26% 0.7 .17 24% .52 79% .41
Jan
24		 UNLV A- A+ F A+ A+ 30% 40% 30% F A+ F A+ F D+ A+ A+ A+ A- F B- C F+ 27% 29% 44% A+ D+ A B- A- B+ D A+ B
1.21 92% 24% 62% +17 -3 1.30 14% 1.3 .19 19% .47 85% .40 1.05 92% 38% 35% +10 -2 1.18 24% 0.9 .21 19% .40 55% .22
Jan
28		 Colorado St. B A+ D- A+ A+ 30% 41% 30% F A A+ D- B+ F A- A A A+ F A- A+ A+ 8% 25% 68% A+ A+ C- A B A+ C+ A- B
1.20 85% 33% 46% +11 -3 1.18 41% 1.0 .41 20% .35 76% .27 0.82 100% 30% 22% -11 -3 0.75 32% 0.9 .29 28% .32 71% .23
Jan
31		 Utah St. D- F A+ F D+ 38% 19% 42% B- C- F F F A- D+ B+ C A+ A F A+ A+ 50% 7% 43% D- A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ C
0.88 45% 60% 27% -5 0 0.92 16% 0.7 .11 17% .29 78% .22 0.94 50% 50% 25% -9 +3 0.89 38% 0.6 .23 24% .40 57% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Wyoming C- A C F D 30% 30% 40% F F+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ D- A+ A+ A+ C B- A 29% 16% 56% A- A C+ A- B+ A F C- F
1.07 69% 38% 18% -6 -2 0.86 39% 1.4 .54 15% .63 64% .40 0.94 38% 43% 32% -7 0 0.89 33% 0.8 .28 21% .49 77% .38
Feb
7		 Air Force A- A+ A+ C- A+ 36% 33% 31% D- A F A- F+ A+ F C F+ A+ C A+ C C 39% 14% 48% C- C A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ D+ B-
1.25 86% 53% 33% +14 -2 1.28 16% 1.3 .20 9% .22 71% .16 0.77 59% 17% 33% -3 +1 0.98 14% 0.8 .10 31% .25 67% .17
Feb
14		 Nevada B- F A+ D C- 27% 20% 52% D+ C- C+ A+ A B- C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 15% 29% 56% A+ A+ F+ D F A+ F B- F+
1.13 42% 56% 30% -4 -1 0.93 29% 1.6 .46 16% .34 94% .32 0.91 33% 25% 26% -14 -3 0.68 41% 1.1 .46 22% .47 74% .35
Feb
17		 Grand Canyon D- F+ F F F 34% 38% 28% D- F B+ A+ A+ C- C- A+ B+ B- B+ A A- A 40% 31% 29% A A B+ F F C+ F+ D+ F+
0.88 44% 25% 20% -16 -3 0.66 31% 1.4 .44 18% .31 89% .27 1.02 53% 27% 29% -8 -1 0.83 27% 1.8 .48 18% .39 78% .31
Feb
21		 Colorado St. C+ F D- B- F 36% 27% 38% C- F A F B- D A+ A+ A+ C- B+ A+ D+ A- 27% 2% 71% D- B C F F C+ F D- F
1.09 38% 33% 35% -8 -1 0.84 38% 0.9 .36 18% .43 83% .36 1.23 55% 0% 38% +2 +2 1.10 31% 1.7 .52 19% .53 83% .44
Feb
25		 Utah St. A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 39% 28% 33% C- A+ A A- A+ A- A+ F+ A+ A D+ B+ C- B- 30% 22% 48% A+ B+ B A+ A+ B F B+ F+
1.28 78% 38% 47% +14 -1 1.28 40% 1.2 .47 17% .57 67% .38 1.04 64% 30% 36% +2 -1 1.04 32% 0.8 .24 17% .42 67% .28
Feb
28		 New Mexico B+ A- A D+ B+ 33% 19% 48% B- B+ D- C+ D+ A+ A- F C C+ A+ A C A+ 43% 19% 38% B A+ C- F+ D- F F B F
1.08 67% 50% 31% +3 0 1.07 20% 1.0 .20 10% .35 59% .21 1.15 43% 30% 35% -7 +1 0.89 33% 1.1 .37 9% .56 69% .39
Mar
3		 Boise St. B+ A+ C+ B+ A 28% 42% 30% F B F A+ F+ A A- A+ A+ D A- F F F 22% 19% 58% A F F F F A+ F C F
1.13 73% 41% 38% +7 -3 1.09 7% 1.5 .11 10% .33 85% .28 1.26 50% 57% 48% +14 -1 1.28 48% 1.8 .84 25% .65 79% .51



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 24.7 24.7 1st
2nd 12.0 58.3 70.3 2nd
3rd 5.1 5.1 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 17.1 83.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 29.7% 24.7    24.7
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 24.7% 24.7 24.7



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 83.0% 42.5% 25.5% 16.9% 10.7 0.2 1.3 7.6 25.0 1.2 47.7 22.8%
13-7 17.1% 29.0% 18.8% 10.3% 10.9 0.1 0.7 3.8 0.4 12.1 12.6%
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 40.2% 24.4% 15.8% 10.8 59.8 20.9%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 21.2% 100.0% 10.6 0.9 5.8 28.7 62.5 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 17.6% 32.5% 10.9 0.4 4.8 26.1 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 27.7% 20.6% 11.0 0.0 1.5 17.8 1.3
Lose Out 5.4% 6.1% 11.2 5.1 0.9