Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.8 103
Expected Predictive Rating +4.5 97
Pace 59.5 363
Improvement -5.8 356

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 72 A- B- D+ B- C+
Defense C 170 C C D+ B B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 277 B 64% 62 +0.1 176
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 284 C- 36% 244 -2.1 285
Three Pointers 49% 33 A 41% 7 +9.3 5
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 142 A- +6.6 17
1st FG Attempt A- 1.16 22
Second Chance C+ 32.4% 132 C+ 1.08 103 B- 0.35 98
Turnovers D+ 18.6% 286
Freethrows C+ 0.32 137 B+ 77% 39 B- 0.25 90
Total Offense B +4.8 72

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 328 D+ 61% 256 +2.9 84
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 120 C- 40% 247 -0.9 266
Three Pointers 46% 48 C+ 33% 134 -1.9 278
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.4 142 C- +6.6 17
1st FG Attempt 1.02 175 C +0.1 174
Second Chance B 26.6% 54 D- 1.16 335 C 0.31 172
Turnovers D+ 15.5% 263
Freethrows B- 0.28 98 A- 68% 22 B 0.19 67
Total Defense C -0.1 170

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.1 335 18.3 318
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 163 0.13 55
Improvement -8.2 #364 +2.4 #57

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 11.5 11.4 11.9
.500 or above 86% 94% 73%
.500 or above in Conference 23% 32% 7%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Home) - 62.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 24 - 65 - 11
Quad 33 - 28 - 13
Quad 49 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 258 Incarnate Word W 98 - 64 89% +18  99% 1 - 0 A+ +26 A+ +23 A+ A+ B- B +5 B A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 242 Nebraska Omaha W 97 - 74 87% +8  89% 2 - 0 A- +15 A+ +23 A+ A+ D- D -6 D+ B- F
 Wed, Nov 12 259 Cal Poly W 93 - 79 89% +9  95% 3 - 0 B- +6 B +6 A- C- B- C- -2 D+ A F+
 Sun, Nov 16 276 @Loyola Chicago W 80 - 67 79% +12  89% 4 - 0 B +9 A+ +15 B+ A+ D D+ -4 F B B
 Fri, Nov 21 247 Denver L 81 - 83 87% -2  25% 4 - 1 D -10 A- +10 B A+ F F -20 F+ C F
 Wed, Nov 26 56 Virginia Tech L 64 - 66 30% -3  22% 4 - 2 B +8 C+ +2 C- A- C+ B +6 C- A+ D
 Thu, Nov 27 94 Wichita St. W 76 - 70 48% +10  98% 5 - 2 B+ +11 A+ +19 A+ D- C D -7 A+ F D+
 Fri, Nov 28 62 South Florida W 83 - 68 35% +8  83% 6 - 2 A+ +24 A +13 A+ C D A +11 A+ A- D
 Sat, Dec 6 77 Colorado W 91 - 86 51% +4  75% 7 - 2 B +9 A+ +19 A+ D C F+ -10 F B- F
 Tue, Dec 9 243 Dartmouth W 76 - 55 87% +9  89% 8 - 2 B+ +13 B +6 A+ F F A +10 B B A-
 Sat, Dec 20 34 @Utah St. L 58 - 100 12% -24  0% 8 - 3 0 - 1 F -25 D -4 D C D F -24 F F C
 Tue, Dec 30 66 Nevada L 62 - 75 48% -4  13% 8 - 4 0 - 2 D+ -8 D -6 D B+ B- C- -3 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 69 @Grand Canyon W 70 - 60 27% +10  95% 9 - 4 1 - 2 A +21 A +12 A- C D A +10 A+ C- C-
 Tue, Jan 6 49 New Mexico L 70 - 80 37% -7  2% 9 - 5 1 - 3 C- -2 C+ +3 B A D+ D -6 D F C+
 Fri, Jan 9 124 UNLV W 70 - 62 71% +0  35% 10 - 5 2 - 3 B- +7 C- -1 C- A+ F A- +9 A D+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 142 @Fresno St. L 69 - 79 52% -7  3% 10 - 6 2 - 4 D+ -6 B +7 A- F+ B F -13 C F+ F
 Fri, Jan 16 58 @Boise St. L 73 - 79 23% -6  1% 10 - 7 2 - 5 B- +6 A +12 A+ F F D -6 C- F B
 Tue, Jan 20 348 Air Force W 81 - 52 96% +17  97% 11 - 7 3 - 5 B+ +14 B +6 B+ D+ A+ A- +9 A A+ C
 Fri, Jan 23 34 Utah St. L 61 - 65 26% +4  76% 11 - 8 3 - 6 B- +7 D+ -2 A+ A+ F A- +9 B A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 28 43 @San Diego St. L 50 - 73 16% -10  10% 11 - 9 3 - 7 D+ -8 D- -7 F+ B F D+ -4 D D B
 Sat, Jan 31 106 @Wyoming L 57 - 68 40% -8  0% 11 - 10 3 - 8 C- -4 D -5 D D+ B- C -1 F A C+
 Sat, Feb 7 237 San Jose St. W 65 - 57 87% +3  81% 12 - 10 4 - 8 C +1 F -11 F C+ B+ A +12 A+ A F
 Tue, Feb 10 348 @Air Force W 91 - 74 90% +8  73% 13 - 10 5 - 8 B- +8 A+ +20 A+ F B+ F -11 F A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 14 106 Wyoming W 72 - 69 63%
 Wed, Feb 18 124 @UNLV L 75 - 76 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 43 San Diego St. L 67 - 72 33%
 Tue, Feb 24 142 Fresno St. W 74 - 67 73%
 Sat, Feb 28 237 @San Jose St. W 72 - 66 71%
 Wed, Mar 4 49 @New Mexico L 69 - 78 20%
 Sat, Mar 7 58 Boise St. L 70 - 72 44%
Totals 17 - 13 9 - 11 +5 F +5 B+ A- C+ C +0 A B+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B B C- A A- 35% 16% 49% C+ A- C+ C+ B- D+ C+ B+ B- C D+ C- C+ C- 32% 22% 46% B- C B D- C D+ B- A- B
1.16 64% 36% 41% +7 0 1.16 32% 1.1 .35 19% .32 77% .25 1.09 61% 40% 33% +1 -1 1.02 27% 1.2 .31 15% .28 68% .22
Nov
3		 Incarnate Word A+ A+ A A+ A+ 32% 18% 50% D A+ B A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ B C- F A+ B 26% 28% 46% B+ B A+ A+ A+ F F+ A+ C
1.49 79% 50% 50% +21 0 1.43 38% 1.8 .67 15% .54 90% .49 0.98 57% 47% 24% -5 -2 0.89 17% 0.6 .10 8% .35 57% .20
Nov
9		 Nebraska Omaha A+ A- A+ B+ A 38% 4% 58% A- A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ D D+ C+ D D 24% 15% 61% C D+ B+ C- B- F B C- B
1.48 71% 100% 38% +11 +2 1.29 52% 1.4 .70 17% .61 85% .51 1.13 62% 38% 36% +3 0 1.07 22% 1.1 .24 11% .26 73% .19
Nov
12		 Cal Poly B B- F A+ B+ 33% 5% 61% B A- F A+ C- B- B- A+ A+ C- B- F F+ D- 31% 13% 56% B+ D+ A+ B- A F+ C+ A+ A-
1.24 63% 0% 43% +8 +2 1.21 19% 1.7 .31 15% .31 95% .30 1.05 53% 43% 39% +3 0 1.09 22% 0.9 .20 17% .29 61% .18
Nov
16		 Loyola Chicago A+ F+ A+ A+ A- 29% 16% 56% C+ B+ A A A+ D A A- A+ D+ C- F F+ F 32% 8% 61% C F B B- B B F C F
1.33 46% 57% 44% +8 0 1.18 40% 1.3 .50 15% .37 84% .31 1.11 58% 67% 39% +7 +1 1.18 29% 0.9 .25 22% .47 68% .32
Nov
21		 Denver A- D- F A+ B- 48% 6% 45% A- B A+ B A+ F A+ A+ A+ F D+ F F F 20% 40% 40% A+ F+ C C+ C F D D+ D
1.35 53% 0% 50% +6 +3 1.19 48% 1.3 .60 18% .90 80% .71 1.38 60% 50% 45% +12 -4 1.18 30% 1.1 .33 7% .34 79% .27
Nov
26		 Virginia Tech C+ B D F D+ 49% 24% 27% B- C- C+ A+ A- C+ F B- F+ B D+ D- C+ C 39% 15% 46% D C- A+ A+ A+ D B- F C
1.03 63% 33% 15% -6 0 0.90 32% 1.3 .41 18% .16 75% .12 1.06 67% 43% 33% +4 +1 1.11 17% 0.8 .14 13% .30 81% .24
Nov
27		 Wichita St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 13% 57% B+ A+ B- F D- C D- F F D C F A+ A+ 41% 18% 41% C- A+ F F F D+ C+ A B
1.30 71% 100% 46% +23 0 1.48 32% 0.6 .18 17% .23 55% .12 1.19 56% 50% 11% -13 0 0.77 54% 1.4 .76 14% .30 60% .18
Nov
28		 South Florida A C+ B A+ A+ 41% 15% 43% B+ A+ F A+ C D F F F A A- A+ A A+ 40% 12% 47% B+ A+ A C- A- D A+ B- A+
1.21 58% 43% 70% +24 +1 1.52 14% 2.0 .29 22% .22 58% .13 0.99 48% 0% 26% -14 +1 0.75 30% 1.2 .37 13% .23 71% .17
Dec
6		 Colorado A+ A+ D- A+ A+ 20% 17% 63% C A+ D D D C C+ B+ B- F+ F F D- F 56% 11% 33% F F A+ F B- F A+ A+ A+
1.36 73% 33% 50% +17 -1 1.35 22% 1.0 .22 16% .30 76% .23 1.28 77% 50% 39% +14 +2 1.35 20% 1.4 .28 9% .21 54% .11
Dec
9		 Dartmouth B A+ B+ A A+ 53% 18% 29% B- A+ F F F F F A+ F A D- A+ B+ B+ 30% 13% 57% C- B C A B A- A+ A+ A+
1.20 81% 44% 40% +16 +1 1.37 19% 0.8 .14 19% .06 100% .06 0.87 64% 17% 31% -4 0 0.96 25% 0.9 .22 24% .17 50% .08
Dec
20		 Utah St. D F C+ D D- 32% 20% 49% C+ D D+ B C D A A- A+ F D F F F 50% 10% 40% D+ F F C+ F C F A+ D
0.91 38% 38% 30% -9 0 0.83 27% 1.1 .30 24% .39 79% .31 1.57 67% 60% 58% +21 +2 1.48 59% 1.2 .70 16% .45 58% .26
Dec
30		 Nevada D A+ F F D 30% 23% 48% D D B+ B- B+ B- A+ F A+ C- F A+ A+ A+ 18% 39% 43% A+ A+ B+ F F C F B- F
0.97 77% 10% 24% -8 -1 0.84 33% 1.3 .42 16% .54 62% .33 1.18 75% 18% 26% -10 -4 0.75 29% 2.4 .71 13% .56 74% .41
Jan
3		 Grand Canyon A B+ F B A- 36% 11% 52% A A- A+ F C D A+ D A+ A A- D A+ A+ 33% 20% 47% B A+ B+ F C- C- A A+ A+
1.12 63% 20% 35% 0 +1 1.05 41% 0.7 .28 21% .50 68% .34 0.96 50% 40% 22% -11 0 0.80 28% 1.3 .36 16% .25 62% .15
Jan
6		 New Mexico C+ C B- C B- 42% 14% 44% A B B+ A+ A D+ F+ A D D D C+ F D- 37% 17% 46% B+ D C F F C+ F+ A+ C
1.07 57% 43% 32% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.3 .42 21% .21 82% .17 1.22 65% 38% 43% +9 0 1.20 31% 1.8 .55 15% .38 62% .23
Jan
9		 UNLV C- F D A C- 36% 17% 47% C+ C- A+ A A+ F A+ C- A+ A- A+ F+ A- A+ 42% 19% 40% C- A D+ D+ D+ A+ F A+ F+
1.09 38% 33% 41% -3 0 0.97 41% 1.3 .55 23% .61 70% .43 0.97 44% 50% 29% -6 +1 0.91 35% 0.9 .32 25% .52 60% .31
Jan
13		 Fresno St. B A A+ C- A 31% 16% 53% C A- C+ F F+ B D+ B- C- F C A- D C 37% 22% 41% B C C- F F+ F F F F
1.10 73% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 30% 0.6 .18 18% .23 75% .17 1.26 59% 30% 37% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.2 .37 11% .43 96% .41
Jan
16		 Boise St. A A- F A+ A+ 27% 20% 52% C A+ B F F F C+ A+ A D A- F D+ D+ 27% 11% 61% B C- C- F F B F C- F
1.17 67% 0% 61% +16 -1 1.32 26% 0.3 .09 24% .30 93% .28 1.27 50% 80% 37% +5 0 1.14 35% 1.4 .48 18% .53 78% .41
Jan
20		 Air Force B A C- B+ B+ 40% 17% 44% B- B+ F+ B D+ A+ A- D- B A- F C A+ A+ 29% 13% 58% B- A A- A+ A+ C A- F C+
1.24 74% 38% 38% +9 +1 1.21 23% 1.1 .26 9% .39 65% .25 0.80 79% 33% 14% -12 0 0.79 17% 0.7 .11 21% .23 75% .18
Jan
23		 Utah St. D+ A+ C A+ A+ 16% 37% 47% F A+ C A+ A+ F F+ D+ F+ A- D- F A+ C+ 32% 30% 38% A+ B A+ D- A+ C+ A+ F A+
0.98 83% 36% 44% +11 -4 1.16 30% 1.7 .52 34% .24 70% .17 1.05 69% 53% 26% +4 -2 1.06 21% 1.3 .28 16% .10 80% .08
Jan
28		 San Diego St. D- A+ D+ F D- 8% 25% 68% F F+ B B- B F C+ C- C+ D+ F B- F F 30% 41% 30% A+ D F B D B D C- D
0.82 100% 30% 22% -11 -3 0.75 32% 0.9 .29 28% .32 71% .23 1.20 85% 33% 46% +11 -3 1.18 41% 1.0 .41 20% .35 76% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Wyoming D C- C+ F F+ 53% 10% 37% B+ D B+ F D+ B- F C F C A B- F F 24% 14% 62% A- F A+ B+ A C+ F C+ F
0.97 56% 40% 21% -8 +2 0.90 32% 0.6 .19 15% .20 70% .14 1.16 44% 40% 48% +10 0 1.22 27% 0.9 .23 17% .49 75% .37
Feb
7		 San Jose St. F D+ F F F 40% 10% 50% B- F C- A- C+ B+ A- C A- A A+ C+ A+ A+ 33% 35% 32% B- A+ A+ F A F A+ F B+
0.99 58% 20% 17% -15 +1 0.75 32% 1.3 .43 15% .36 75% .27 0.87 42% 35% 17% -15 -2 0.68 8% 2.7 .21 6% .18 91% .16
Feb
10		 Air Force A+ A+ A A+ A+ 20% 20% 61% D A+ F F F B+ A+ A+ A+ F F B F F 40% 16% 44% C+ F B- A+ A+ D+ F A+ C
1.39 75% 50% 56% +26 -1 1.51 14% 0.0 .00 12% .63 81% .51 1.13 71% 29% 58% +19 +1 1.42 21% 0.5 .10 20% .42 45% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 0.4 1.4 5th
6th 0.5 3.9 3.2 0.3 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 2.2 14.6 11.3 1.5 29.6 7th
8th 1.0 12.6 11.9 1.1 0.0 26.6 8th
9th 0.6 8.1 10.4 1.3 20.4 9th
10th 0.7 4.7 7.1 1.4 0.0 13.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.8 5.3 16.2 26.6 28.3 16.4 5.6 0.9 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.9% 8.6% 4.6% 4.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8 4.2%
11-9 5.6% 3.4% 2.9% 0.4% 11.1 0.2 0.0 5.4 0.5%
10-10 16.4% 2.2% 2.1% 0.1% 11.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 16.0 0.1%
9-11 28.3% 1.3% 1.3% 11.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 27.9
8-12 26.6% 0.8% 0.8% 11.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 26.4
7-13 16.2% 0.6% 0.6% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 16.1
6-14 5.3% 0.2% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 5.3
5-15 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 0.7
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.4% 1.3% 0.1% 11.5 98.7 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 6.3% 11.0 6.3
Lose Out 0.4%