Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#51
Expected Predictive Rating+13.3#41
Pace70.0#172
Improvement-2.6#330

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#57
First Shot+4.7#63
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#116
Layup/Dunks+4.6#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#255
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#115
Freethrows-0.6#218
Improvement-1.8#317

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#53
First Shot+5.7#33
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#262
Layups/Dunks+9.5#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#256
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#279
Freethrows-0.4#211
Improvement-0.8#254
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.3% 1.6% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 4.8% 5.5% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.9% 45.9% 30.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.4% 29.3% 15.4%
Average Seed 9.3 9.2 9.9
.500 or above 98.3% 99.1% 95.3%
.500 or above in Conference 93.2% 94.4% 88.3%
Conference Champion 30.3% 32.4% 21.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four8.1% 8.6% 6.0%
First Round38.9% 41.7% 27.5%
Second Round18.2% 19.9% 10.9%
Sweet Sixteen4.9% 5.4% 2.5%
Elite Eight1.6% 1.8% 0.6%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Away) - 80.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 3
Quad 26 - 48 - 7
Quad 310 - 217 - 9
Quad 46 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 42 Virginia Commonwealth W 80-77 46%     1 - 0 +14.6 +8.0 +6.4
  Wed, Nov 12 195 Weber St. W 83-73 92%     2 - 0 +4.8 +5.6 -0.9
  Sat, Nov 15 241 UTEP W 75-51 94%     3 - 0 +16.5 +3.6 +13.6
  Fri, Nov 21 187 Tulane W 96-75 87%     4 - 0 +19.3 +21.2 -1.6
  Sun, Nov 23 138 Davidson W 94-60 80%     5 - 0 +35.6 +21.3 +14.2
  Sat, Nov 29 164 Montana St. W 84-81 OT 90%     6 - 0 -0.6 +1.7 -2.6
  Thu, Dec 4 79 @South Florida L 61-74 51%     6 - 1 -2.7 -7.4 +4.8
  Sun, Dec 7 181 @Charlotte W 76-67 81%    
  Sat, Dec 13 92 Illinois St. W 76-71 68%    
  Sat, Dec 20 72 Colorado St. W 78-72 70%    
  Tue, Dec 30 183 @Fresno St. W 80-71 81%    
  Sat, Jan 3 182 San Jose St. W 79-64 92%    
  Tue, Jan 6 331 @Air Force W 78-60 95%    
  Sat, Jan 10 52 @Boise St. L 69-72 40%    
  Wed, Jan 14 106 Nevada W 78-69 80%    
  Sat, Jan 17 99 @Grand Canyon W 74-72 58%    
  Tue, Jan 20 132 UNLV W 87-75 85%    
  Fri, Jan 23 72 @Colorado St. L 74-75 48%    
  Wed, Jan 28 107 Wyoming W 80-71 79%    
  Sat, Jan 31 56 San Diego St. W 76-73 63%    
  Wed, Feb 4 84 @New Mexico W 79-78 54%    
  Sat, Feb 7 107 @Wyoming W 77-74 61%    
  Tue, Feb 10 183 Fresno St. W 83-68 91%    
  Sat, Feb 14 69 Memphis W 78-73 69%    
  Wed, Feb 18 52 Boise St. W 72-69 61%    
  Sat, Feb 21 106 @Nevada W 75-72 61%    
  Wed, Feb 25 56 @San Diego St. L 73-76 41%    
  Sat, Feb 28 99 Grand Canyon W 77-69 77%    
  Tue, Mar 3 132 @UNLV W 84-78 69%    
  Sat, Mar 7 84 New Mexico W 82-75 73%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.6 4.8 8.2 7.7 5.1 2.3 0.5 30.3 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 6.2 7.1 3.7 0.9 0.1 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 5.7 5.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.5 4.2 1.0 0.1 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.2 3.4 0.7 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.6 0.6 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.4 5.7 7.7 10.5 12.8 14.1 13.6 12.1 8.7 5.1 2.3 0.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 2.3    2.3 0.0
18-2 98.6% 5.1    4.7 0.3
17-3 89.1% 7.7    6.2 1.4 0.1
16-4 67.5% 8.2    4.9 2.8 0.4 0.0
15-5 35.2% 4.8    1.7 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 11.1% 1.6    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 30.3% 30.3 20.6 7.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 99.4% 51.9% 47.4% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.7%
19-1 2.3% 97.6% 48.2% 49.4% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 95.3%
18-2 5.1% 93.6% 45.4% 48.2% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.3 88.3%
17-3 8.7% 84.4% 38.5% 45.9% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.6 0.7 0.0 1.4 74.7%
16-4 12.1% 70.4% 32.0% 38.4% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 2.9 2.0 0.0 3.6 56.4%
15-5 13.6% 54.7% 26.5% 28.1% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.6 3.3 0.1 6.2 38.3%
14-6 14.1% 40.0% 21.9% 18.2% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.4 0.2 8.5 23.3%
13-7 12.8% 25.4% 16.9% 8.5% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 0.2 9.5 10.2%
12-8 10.5% 16.4% 12.4% 3.9% 11.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 8.8 4.5%
11-9 7.7% 9.7% 8.7% 1.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.0 1.0%
10-10 5.7% 6.8% 6.4% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.3 0.4%
9-11 3.4% 4.8% 4.8% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.2
8-12 1.8% 3.0% 3.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
7-13 0.9% 2.3% 2.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-14 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 14.0 0.0 0.5
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 42.9% 22.4% 20.5% 9.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 2.2 3.0 3.9 6.0 9.9 14.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.1 26.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.9 7.4 33.3 29.6 25.9 3.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 95.8% 3.9 12.5 4.2 4.2 41.7 25.0 8.3