UNLV
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#132
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#217
Pace79.5#12
Improvement-2.3#321

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#109
First Shot+3.5#80
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#237
Layup/Dunks+3.0#81
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#152
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#256
Freethrows+2.5#60
Improvement-2.7#348

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#186
First Shot+0.3#164
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#255
Layups/Dunks+1.1#132
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#301
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#40
Freethrows-3.4#337
Improvement+0.3#160
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.6% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 11.8 12.6
.500 or above 24.1% 39.8% 19.2%
.500 or above in Conference 35.8% 45.6% 32.8%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.0% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 1.8% 3.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.6% 2.5% 1.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Away) - 23.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 64 - 11
Quad 34 - 58 - 16
Quad 46 - 313 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 240 Tennessee Martin L 81-86 81%     0 - 1 -12.5 -4.4 -7.4
  Sat, Nov 8 222 Chattanooga W 101-69 79%     1 - 1 +25.2 +26.4 -0.1
  Tue, Nov 11 206 Montana L 93-102 77%     1 - 2 -14.7 +3.4 -16.9
  Sun, Nov 16 69 @Memphis W 92-78 19%     2 - 2 +25.2 +14.8 +8.7
  Thu, Nov 20 178 Saint Joseph's W 99-85 73%     3 - 2 +9.6 +13.5 -5.7
  Mon, Nov 24 93 Maryland L 67-74 36%     3 - 3 -1.4 -5.0 +3.9
  Tue, Nov 25 10 Alabama L 76-115 7%     3 - 4 -20.3 +0.2 -16.2
  Thu, Nov 27 123 Rutgers L 65-80 48%     3 - 5 -12.5 -5.2 -7.4
  Sun, Dec 7 85 @Stanford L 79-87 24%    
  Sat, Dec 13 249 Tennessee St. W 87-77 82%    
  Sat, Dec 20 183 Fresno St. W 85-78 73%    
  Sat, Jan 3 331 Air Force W 82-67 92%    
  Tue, Jan 6 107 @Wyoming L 79-84 31%    
  Fri, Jan 9 72 @Colorado St. L 76-85 20%    
  Tue, Jan 13 52 Boise St. L 74-79 31%    
  Sat, Jan 17 182 @San Jose St. W 78-77 52%    
  Tue, Jan 20 51 @Utah St. L 75-87 15%    
  Sat, Jan 24 56 San Diego St. L 78-83 32%    
  Tue, Jan 27 84 New Mexico L 84-86 44%    
  Fri, Jan 30 106 @Nevada L 77-82 31%    
  Tue, Feb 3 183 @Fresno St. W 82-81 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 99 Grand Canyon L 78-79 49%    
  Tue, Feb 10 182 San Jose St. W 81-74 72%    
  Fri, Feb 13 52 @Boise St. L 71-82 16%    
  Wed, Feb 18 72 Colorado St. L 79-82 39%    
  Sat, Feb 21 331 @Air Force W 79-70 79%    
  Wed, Feb 25 99 @Grand Canyon L 76-82 29%    
  Sat, Feb 28 106 Nevada W 80-79 52%    
  Tue, Mar 3 51 Utah St. L 78-84 31%    
  Fri, Mar 6 56 @San Diego St. L 75-86 16%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.8 0.2 3.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 2.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.5 3.3 0.5 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.1 4.5 1.0 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.8 5.2 1.3 0.1 14.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.6 5.1 1.4 0.1 16.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 3.6 5.2 3.6 1.0 0.1 14.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.6 3.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 9.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.8 7.1 10.4 13.0 13.8 13.4 11.8 9.4 6.4 4.1 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 89.1% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-4 75.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 37.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1
14-6 10.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 30.9% 23.6% 7.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.5%
16-4 0.5% 14.0% 12.5% 1.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 1.7%
15-5 1.3% 11.3% 10.0% 1.3% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.5%
14-6 2.2% 10.8% 10.6% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 0.2%
13-7 4.1% 6.2% 6.2% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.8
12-8 6.4% 3.4% 3.4% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.2
11-9 9.4% 2.3% 2.3% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.2
10-10 11.8% 1.4% 1.4% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.6
9-11 13.4% 1.1% 1.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.2
8-12 13.8% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.7
7-13 13.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 12.9
6-14 10.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.3
5-15 7.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.1
4-16 3.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.8
3-17 1.9% 1.9
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.7% 1.6% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 98.3 0.1%