UNLV
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +2.2 124
Expected Predictive Rating +2.5 121
Pace 74.5 42
Improvement +1.7 116

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 100 B- C- C B C+
Defense C 190 C+ C- C+ D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 53 C+ 59% 133 +3.5 69
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 176 B+ 45% 34 +1.5 97
Three Pointers 36% 291 B- 36% 76 -1.3 227
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 148 B- +3.3 75
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 74
Second Chance B- 33.1% 102 F+ 0.86 351 C- 0.29 236
Turnovers C 16.7% 170
Freethrows A- 0.37 18 D+ 70% 270 B 0.26 49
Total Offense C+ +2.8 100

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 111 B- 55% 105 -0.5 194
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 126 C 38% 190 -0.5 226
Three Pointers 37% 299 C 34% 205 +1.8 103
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.3 148 C+ +3.3 75
1st FG Attempt 1.00 150 C+ +0.8 151
Second Chance C 29.9% 155 D+ 1.10 292 C- 0.33 233
Turnovers C+ 18.0% 115
Freethrows F+ 0.38 348 C+ 71% 132 D- 0.27 340
Total Defense C -0.6 190

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.9 54 17.1 158
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 118 0.15 116
Improvement +1.9 #88 -0.2 #206

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.5 11.6 12.8
.500 or above 14% 39% 9%
.500 or above in Conference 45% 79% 38%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Away) - 16.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 5
Quad 23 - 56 - 11
Quad 33 - 48 - 15
Quad 46 - 314 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 217 Tennessee Martin L 81 - 86 78% +1  48% 0 - 1 D -11 D -5 C- A+ F D -6 C- C- F+
 Sat, Nov 8 283 Chattanooga W 101 - 69 87% +11  92% 1 - 1 A +22 A+ +24 A+ A+ B C -1 D C+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 174 Montana L 93 - 102 71% -6  11% 1 - 2 D- -13 B- +5 A- F+ B+ F -16 F+ F F+
 Sun, Nov 16 88 @Memphis W 92 - 78 26% +11  95% 2 - 2 A+ +23 A +13 A+ F A- B+ +8 A C- B+
 Thu, Nov 20 141 Saint Joseph's W 99 - 85 64% +4  75% 3 - 2 B+ +13 A +14 B+ B- C C- -3 C A D-
 Mon, Nov 24 104 Maryland L 67 - 74 41% +0  54% 3 - 3 C- -3 F+ -10 D- F C- B+ +7 A- D A+
 Tue, Nov 25 17 Alabama L 76 - 115 8% -16  5% 3 - 4 F -21 D+ -3 B D- B- F -14 F F+ B+
 Thu, Nov 27 121 Rutgers L 65 - 80 48% -3  27% 3 - 5 D- -12 F+ -9 D F A+ C- -3 A- D+ C-
 Sun, Dec 7 74 @Stanford W 75 - 74 21% -2  24% 4 - 5 B+ +12 C+ +2 B- D- C A- +9 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 241 Tennessee St. L 60 - 63 82% +2  65% 4 - 6 D -10 F -21 F F F A +11 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 142 Fresno St. W 84 - 72 65% +4  74% 5 - 6 1 - 0 B +10 A +12 A+ A- C+ C -1 B- F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 348 Air Force W 67 - 39 94% +15  99% 6 - 6 2 - 0 B+ +13 F+ -9 F B+ D+ A+ +23 A+ B D+
 Tue, Jan 6 106 @Wyoming L 66 - 98 31% -20  0% 6 - 7 2 - 1 F -25 F+ -9 D C- C F -15 F F B
 Fri, Jan 9 103 @Colorado St. L 62 - 70 29% -0  50% 6 - 8 2 - 2 C -0 D- -6 D- C+ F B +5 A F A
 Tue, Jan 13 58 Boise St. W 89 - 85 OT 34% +0  38% 7 - 8 3 - 2 B +10 B- +4 B B C B +5 C A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 237 @San Jose St. W 76 - 62 63% +7  96% 8 - 8 4 - 2 B+ +13 A+ +17 A+ F A+ C -1 D+ B- A
 Tue, Jan 20 34 @Utah St. W 86 - 76 9% -3  21% 9 - 8 5 - 2 A+ +27 A+ +20 A A A- B+ +8 A+ B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 43 San Diego St. L 71 - 82 25% -4  29% 9 - 9 5 - 3 C- -2 B +6 A+ C- B+ D- -8 F A+ B
 Tue, Jan 27 49 New Mexico L 61 - 89 29% -18  0% 9 - 10 5 - 4 F -20 F -14 F+ F D+ D+ -4 D A D+
 Fri, Jan 30 66 @Nevada L 76 - 89 19% -11  0% 9 - 11 5 - 5 C- -2 B+ +8 A+ F+ B F+ -11 F C- D
 Tue, Feb 3 142 @Fresno St. L 96 - 98 42% +4  81% 9 - 12 5 - 6 C+ +2 A +14 A+ C F F -11 F C- C+
 Sat, Feb 7 69 Grand Canyon W 80 - 78 38% +7  88% 10 - 12 6 - 6 B- +7 B+ +9 B- B+ B- C -2 B A- D+
 Tue, Feb 10 237 San Jose St. W 82 - 75 81% +4  88% 11 - 12 7 - 6 C -0 B- +5 C D+ A D+ -5 A- F F
 Fri, Feb 13 58 @Boise St. L 73 - 83 17%
 Wed, Feb 18 103 Colorado St. W 76 - 75 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 348 @Air Force W 80 - 68 86%
 Wed, Feb 25 69 @Grand Canyon L 71 - 80 20%
 Sat, Feb 28 66 Nevada L 75 - 78 38%
 Tue, Mar 3 34 Utah St. L 76 - 85 19%
 Fri, Mar 6 43 @San Diego St. L 70 - 83 11%
Totals 13 - 17 9 - 11 +2 F +3 D B- C+ C+ -1 B- D+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C+ B+ B- B- 43% 21% 36% C+ B- B- F+ C- C A- D+ B C B- C C C+ 41% 22% 37% C C+ C D+ C- C+ F+ C+ D-
1.13 59% 45% 36% +3 0 1.09 33% 0.9 .29 17% .37 70% .26 1.10 55% 38% 34% -1 0 1.00 30% 1.1 .33 18% .38 71% .26
Nov
4		 Tennessee Martin D B- C D- C- 33% 19% 49% C+ C- C- A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ D A- F D+ C 30% 12% 58% D+ C- A F C- F+ F A+ F
1.01 64% 38% 29% -2 0 0.98 31% 1.5 .47 27% .64 76% .48 1.07 47% 50% 34% -1 0 1.00 28% 1.3 .35 17% .73 56% .41
Nov
8		 Chattanooga A+ A+ A- C+ A+ 41% 18% 41% C A+ A+ A A+ B A+ C A+ C F F B+ D- 29% 21% 50% B- D B D- C+ B- C+ D- C
1.49 80% 44% 35% +11 0 1.24 52% 1.4 .71 12% .62 73% .45 1.02 71% 50% 29% +3 -1 1.06 16% 1.2 .19 18% .27 80% .21
Nov
11		 Montana B- A- A+ F B+ 48% 13% 39% A- A- C- F F+ B+ A F+ B F D+ F F+ F+ 55% 18% 27% D- F+ F C- F F+ F F F
1.15 70% 63% 25% +4 +2 1.13 28% 0.7 .21 12% .38 63% .24 1.26 63% 60% 40% +9 +1 1.24 33% 1.1 .37 16% .40 89% .35
Nov
16		 Memphis A A+ A+ D- A+ 44% 11% 45% A A+ B- F F A- B+ A+ A+ B+ D A+ A+ A+ 44% 27% 29% C A A- F C- B+ F F F
1.15 83% 50% 28% +8 +2 1.22 34% 0.5 .16 18% .40 81% .32 0.98 65% 14% 20% -9 0 0.83 31% 1.5 .44 23% .49 80% .39
Nov
20		 Saint Joseph's A B- D- A B 55% 25% 20% A- B+ A+ F B- C A+ D+ A+ C- B B+ D C 37% 19% 44% B C B+ A+ A D- F B F
1.24 61% 31% 40% +1 +1 1.06 51% 0.7 .37 15% .72 67% .49 1.07 52% 27% 36% -3 0 0.96 28% 0.7 .20 15% .50 71% .35
Nov
24		 Maryland F+ F A+ D F+ 44% 9% 47% A- D- D+ F F C- A C- B+ B+ B+ F A+ A 37% 8% 55% F+ A- D- C- D A+ D+ C D+
0.92 42% 60% 31% -7 +2 0.91 25% 0.5 .13 18% .37 68% .25 1.01 50% 75% 22% -10 +1 0.86 40% 1.1 .45 27% .39 71% .28
Nov
25		 Alabama D+ D- A+ C B 38% 20% 42% B B D F D- B- F+ F F F C- F F F 40% 9% 51% C- F F C+ F+ B+ F F+ F
0.97 46% 54% 33% -2 0 0.98 23% 0.7 .16 13% .20 50% .10 1.46 64% 80% 43% +13 +2 1.31 44% 1.1 .50 15% .53 83% .44
Nov
27		 Rutgers F+ F A+ F D+ 36% 29% 35% D D F+ F F A+ C+ F D+ C- A C A- A- 33% 38% 29% B A- D C D+ C- F D- F
0.94 45% 56% 26% -3 -1 0.93 24% 0.7 .17 12% .26 63% .16 1.15 44% 39% 29% -7 -3 0.83 38% 1.1 .43 14% .61 78% .47
Dec
7		 Stanford C+ C+ B C B 46% 37% 17% D+ B- B F D- C A+ F B- A- A+ C A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% A A+ F F F A+ F A+ F+
1.04 58% 42% 33% +1 -1 1.02 32% 0.7 .21 19% .46 59% .27 1.02 38% 38% 24% -14 0 0.73 48% 1.3 .62 22% .48 63% .30
Dec
13		 Tennessee St. F C- C- F F 51% 12% 37% B- F C+ F F F A+ F A A C+ F A+ B+ 46% 28% 26% D B D- F F A+ B- A+ A+
0.84 57% 40% 20% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.5 .18 25% .60 59% .36 0.88 57% 50% 8% -8 0 0.86 36% 1.2 .44 25% .24 38% .09
Dec
20		 Fresno St. A A A+ A A+ 42% 11% 47% B+ A+ F A+ A- C+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ C F+ B+ 51% 15% 34% D- B- D F F C- A- C- B+
1.22 74% 60% 38% +12 +1 1.29 18% 2.3 .41 19% .39 86% .34 1.05 44% 38% 39% -4 +2 0.96 33% 1.2 .41 17% .23 77% .18
Jan
3		 Air Force F+ D+ D+ F F 50% 22% 28% B- F A- C+ B+ D+ B+ F D+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 52% 8% 40% F A+ B B- B D+ B+ A+ A
1.03 56% 36% 21% -7 +1 0.90 38% 1.1 .41 17% .37 55% .20 0.60 36% 25% 16% -23 +3 0.60 19% 1.0 .19 20% .25 46% .11
Jan
6		 Wyoming F+ F F A+ F+ 65% 10% 25% A D C+ F+ C- C A+ F A+ F F A F F 54% 6% 40% F F F F+ F B F D+ F
0.92 38% 25% 50% -8 +3 0.93 28% 0.7 .20 17% .75 56% .42 1.36 69% 33% 42% +11 +3 1.29 44% 1.1 .50 19% .50 79% .40
Jan
9		 Colorado St. D- F A D- F+ 42% 19% 40% B D- A- F C+ F A+ F A+ B A+ B- F+ A+ 36% 17% 47% C A F F F A F A- F
0.97 44% 50% 29% -6 +1 0.91 35% 0.9 .32 25% .52 60% .31 1.09 38% 33% 41% -3 0 0.97 41% 1.3 .55 23% .61 70% .43
Jan
13		 Boise St. B- B+ B B B+ 31% 33% 35% D- B A+ F B C A+ B- A+ B D F A+ C- 56% 22% 22% C C A+ A+ A+ B+ F+ C+ D-
1.11 65% 44% 37% +6 -2 1.09 36% 0.8 .28 16% .42 71% .30 1.06 65% 50% 25% +3 +1 1.11 24% 0.5 .12 19% .45 76% .34
Jan
17		 San Jose St. A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 36% 19% 45% D+ A+ F F F A+ D A+ C+ C C+ A+ F D 38% 35% 26% C+ D+ F A+ B- A F F F
1.35 65% 56% 52% +18 0 1.38 22% 0.4 .09 12% .24 92% .22 1.10 54% 25% 56% +2 -2 1.03 43% 0.7 .30 21% .47 86% .41
Jan
20		 Utah St. A+ F+ A A+ A 51% 23% 26% B A A+ B- A A- A+ A+ A+ B+ B- A+ A A+ 50% 6% 44% D- A+ B+ B- B+ D- F A+ F+
1.26 46% 45% 58% +5 +1 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 18% .44 84% .37 1.11 56% 0% 27% -8 +3 0.92 33% 1.2 .38 12% .51 55% .28
Jan
24		 San Diego St. B A+ B B- A+ 27% 29% 44% D- A+ D+ C C- B+ A+ F C D- F A+ F F 30% 40% 30% A F A+ F A+ B F F F
1.05 92% 38% 35% +10 -2 1.18 24% 0.9 .21 19% .40 55% .22 1.21 92% 24% 62% +17 -3 1.30 14% 1.3 .19 19% .47 85% .40
Jan
27		 New Mexico F A F F F+ 41% 28% 31% C+ F+ F+ F F D+ C+ B- C+ D+ C F F+ D+ 53% 9% 38% F+ D C+ A+ A D+ B- B- B
0.82 68% 13% 18% -10 -1 0.80 18% 0.7 .13 21% .29 76% .22 1.19 58% 60% 41% +6 +3 1.19 29% 0.7 .21 13% .28 72% .20
Jan
30		 Nevada B+ C- B- A+ A+ 32% 23% 45% D+ A+ C F F+ B F A+ F F+ D F+ F F 49% 23% 28% D- F A+ F C- D F B- F
1.13 53% 42% 46% +7 -1 1.15 26% 0.8 .21 15% .19 82% .16 1.33 61% 45% 54% +11 0 1.26 19% 2.0 .38 10% .52 74% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Fresno St. A A+ A+ A A+ 32% 23% 45% D+ A+ A+ F C F A+ D+ A+ F F C- F F 30% 41% 30% A+ F A F C- C+ F B- F
1.21 87% 55% 38% +16 -1 1.32 41% 0.8 .31 24% .60 69% .41 1.23 85% 39% 62% +20 -3 1.36 22% 1.3 .30 19% .68 73% .50
Feb
7		 Grand Canyon B+ D+ B- C+ B+ 27% 37% 35% F B- A C B+ B- C A+ A C A B D+ B+ 41% 22% 37% B- B B- A A- D+ F C+ F
1.11 50% 42% 33% -1 -3 0.94 35% 1.1 .38 17% .32 95% .30 1.09 47% 30% 35% -5 0 0.91 30% 0.8 .25 15% .58 74% .43
Feb
10		 San Jose St. B- F+ A+ C+ C 41% 20% 39% C- C C+ F+ D+ A A- D B+ D+ A+ C+ F+ B+ 26% 37% 37% A- A- A- F F F D F+ F+
1.21 52% 60% 35% +3 0 1.08 36% 1.0 .36 13% .36 71% .26 1.11 29% 35% 40% -5 -3 0.85 27% 1.6 .44 10% .33 80% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 1.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 1.7 0.1 4.6 5th
6th 0.5 5.9 6.6 0.6 0.0 13.6 6th
7th 0.0 2.6 20.9 20.6 3.5 0.1 47.7 7th
8th 0.4 10.4 11.2 1.2 0.0 23.1 8th
9th 1.6 5.5 0.9 7.9 9th
10th 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 2.8 18.9 33.5 27.8 13.0 3.5 0.5 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 11.0 0.0 0.5
12-8 3.5% 1.1% 1.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 3.4
11-9 13.0% 0.9% 0.9% 11.7 0.0 0.1 12.9
10-10 27.8% 0.4% 0.4% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 27.7
9-11 33.5% 0.3% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 33.4
8-12 18.9% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 18.8
7-13 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 12.5 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%