New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.8 #51
Expected Predictive Rating +12.1 #48
Pace 75.7 #36
Improvement +4.8 #20

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #87 B C+ B C B+
Defense #30 B+ B A- B- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #122 1.19 #144 +1.9 #111
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #328 0.83 #76 -2.5 #302
Three Pointers 47% #68 1.07 #102 +4.2 #54
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #81 +3.5 #81
Freethrows 17.0 #222 75% #84 12.8 #182
Second Chance 30.6% #182 1.11 #97 0.34 #127
Turnovers 14.7% #72
Total Offense +3.8 #87

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% #358 1.11 #119 +7.3 #11
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #102 0.79 #229 -1.1 #270
Three Pointers 51% #11 0.88 #35 -1.4 #244
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #48 +4.9 #48
Freethrows 16.5 #121 71% #116 11.7 #112
Second Chance 27.3% #65 1.01 #130 0.27 #76
Turnovers 19.7% #35
Total Defense +7.0 #30

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #41 -2.1% #33
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.4% #104 -7.5% #54
Possession Length 16.0 #60 17.7 #252
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #101 0.16 #143
Improvement +1.8 #90 +3.0 #33

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.4% 45.4% 30.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 27.7% 31.5% 18.0%
Average Seed 10.1 10.0 10.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.8% 98.0%
Conference Champion 26.0% 31.0% 12.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.1% 13.2% 9.4%
First Round35.3% 38.8% 25.8%
Second Round12.9% 14.5% 8.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 3.0% 2.0%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Home) - 72.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 4
Quad 27 - 39 - 7
Quad 36 - 115 - 9
Quad 48 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 308 East Texas A&M W 76 - 54 97% +16  1 - 0 +11 -7 F B+ D- +15 A+ A- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 156 Texas Arlington W 74 - 56 89% +12  2 - 0 +15 +1 B F C +14 A+ B- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 293 UC Riverside W 82 - 68 97% +5  3 - 0 +3 +8 B- C A+ -4 F B+ A-
 Sat, Nov 15 133 @New Mexico St. L 68 - 76 72% -2  3 - 1 -3 +0 D+ C F -4 A- F D
 Thu, Nov 20 14 Nebraska L 72 - 84 24% -11  3 - 2 +6 -2 B- C C +9 C+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 76 Mississippi St. W 80 - 78 62% +2  4 - 2 +10 +9 B+ B- C +1 C A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 311 Alabama St. W 93 - 87 97% -6  5 - 2 -6 +11 A+ F B -16 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 54 Santa Clara W 98 - 71 63% +11  6 - 2 +34 +26 A+ A+ A+ +8 A+ C A+
 Wed, Dec 10 55 @Virginia Commonwealth W 81 - 78 40% -1  7 - 2 +16 +14 A+ F D- +3 A+ C B+
 Sun, Dec 14 225 Florida Gulf Coast W 75 - 59 94% +5  8 - 2 +9 -1 F C F +11 A+ A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 20 238 San Jose St. W 88 - 65 94% +10  9 - 2 1 - 0 +16 +12 A+ C- A+ +4 B+ A B+
 Tue, Dec 30 66 @Boise St. L 53 - 62 48% +0  9 - 3 1 - 1 +2 -13 F D A+ +16 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 108 Wyoming W 78 - 58 82% +6  10 - 3 2 - 1 +21 +16 B A+ B- +8 A+ C A+
 Tue, Jan 6 96 @Colorado St. W 80 - 70 59% +7  11 - 3 3 - 1 +18 +13 A+ A+ C +6 A+ D A-
 Sat, Jan 10 340 @Air Force W 91 - 49 95% +21  12 - 3 4 - 1 +34 +19 A- D+ A- +15 D+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 79 Grand Canyon W 87 - 64 73% +9  13 - 3 5 - 1 +27 +15 A+ D A- +11 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 46 @San Diego St. L 79 - 83 37% -3  13 - 4 5 - 2 +10 +7 B C+ D+ +4 C A+ A
 Wed, Jan 21 143 Fresno St. W 83 - 74 88% +11  14 - 4 6 - 2 +7 +3 F A+ A+ +3 B C A+
 Sat, Jan 24 80 Nevada W 77 - 71 73%
 Tue, Jan 27 114 @UNLV W 81 - 77 66%
 Sat, Jan 31 238 @San Jose St. W 80 - 68 87%
 Wed, Feb 4 39 Utah St. W 78 - 77 54%
 Sat, Feb 7 66 Boise St. W 76 - 71 70%
 Wed, Feb 11 79 @Grand Canyon W 74 - 73 52%
 Tue, Feb 17 340 Air Force W 82 - 57 99%
 Sat, Feb 21 143 @Fresno St. W 78 - 71 74%
 Tue, Feb 24 80 @Nevada W 75 - 74 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 46 San Diego St. W 76 - 73 59%
 Wed, Mar 4 96 Colorado St. W 78 - 70 78%
 Sat, Mar 7 39 @Utah St. L 75 - 80 32%
Totals 22 - 8 14 - 6 +11 +4 B C+ B +7 B+ B A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 7.7 10.2 5.2 1.2 26.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.8 9.6 10.0 2.7 0.2 24.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 7.6 9.2 1.7 0.0 19.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 4.6 7.7 1.7 0.0 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.2 1.6 0.1 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.3 5.7 11.5 18.8 22.2 19.5 12.9 5.4 1.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.2    1.1 0.1
17-3 96.4% 5.2    4.4 0.8 0.0
16-4 78.7% 10.2    6.1 3.6 0.4
15-5 39.7% 7.7    2.1 3.8 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 7.5% 1.7    0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 26.0% 26.0 13.9 8.7 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.2% 94.4% 33.9% 60.5% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 91.6%
17-3 5.4% 84.8% 33.0% 51.8% 8.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.8 77.3%
16-4 12.9% 69.5% 26.7% 42.8% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.6 2.1 0.0 3.9 58.4%
15-5 19.5% 55.6% 23.3% 32.3% 10.3 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.1 5.0 0.0 8.7 42.1%
14-6 22.2% 39.7% 18.7% 21.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.7 0.0 13.4 25.9%
13-7 18.8% 25.5% 15.2% 10.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.6 0.1 14.0 12.2%
12-8 11.5% 15.3% 11.0% 4.3% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.1 9.7 4.8%
11-9 5.7% 8.4% 7.8% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 5.2 0.6%
10-10 2.3% 4.0% 3.7% 0.2% 11.0 0.1 2.2 0.2%
9-11 0.6% 8.1% 8.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.5
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 41.4% 19.0% 22.4% 10.1 58.6 27.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 5.4 5.1 16.5 26.6 38.0 13.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 95.5% 7.7 4.5 15.9 25.0 22.7 15.9 11.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 88.5% 8.0 1.6 6.6 19.7 29.5 23.0 8.2