UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#271
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#260
Pace67.5#235
Improvement+1.4#87

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#241
First Shot+1.9#127
After Offensive Rebound-4.6#357
Layup/Dunks-1.3#222
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#116
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#145
Freethrows+0.9#132
Improvement+1.7#53

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#285
First Shot-4.6#318
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#109
Layups/Dunks-4.3#321
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#169
Freethrows+1.4#106
Improvement-0.3#222
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.3% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.2
.500 or above 7.4% 13.5% 4.3%
.500 or above in Conference 21.2% 35.8% 13.9%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 19.4% 9.8% 24.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.7% 1.2% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Away) - 33.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 73 - 14
Quad 48 - 611 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 340 @North Dakota W 74-70 58%     1 - 0 -4.1 -2.0 -2.1
  Tue, Nov 11 103 @New Mexico L 68-82 11%     1 - 1 -6.4 +3.5 -10.7
  Sat, Nov 15 340 North Dakota L 74-76 78%     1 - 2 -16.1 -8.7 -7.3
  Tue, Nov 18 130 @California Baptist L 57-80 15%     1 - 3 -17.9 -16.5 +0.4
  Fri, Nov 21 262 @San Diego W 85-71 37%     2 - 3 +11.3 +12.1 -0.4
  Mon, Nov 24 284 Grambling St. W 83-74 63%     3 - 3 -0.7 +8.0 -8.6
  Sat, Nov 29 254 @Utah Tech L 69-77 35%     3 - 4 -10.3 +3.3 -14.4
  Thu, Dec 4 125 @UC Irvine L 60-73 13%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -7.2 -2.6 -4.9
  Sat, Dec 6 243 @Cal Poly L 78-83 33%    
  Sat, Dec 13 8 @BYU L 60-88 0.4%   
  Sat, Dec 20 166 @St. Thomas L 69-77 22%    
  Tue, Dec 23 31 @UCLA L 59-82 2%    
  Thu, Jan 1 108 Hawaii L 69-76 25%    
  Thu, Jan 8 280 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 71-74 41%    
  Sat, Jan 10 102 UC San Diego L 70-78 23%    
  Thu, Jan 15 286 @Long Beach St. L 71-73 42%    
  Sat, Jan 17 303 Cal St. Fullerton W 83-78 66%    
  Thu, Jan 22 125 UC Irvine L 65-71 30%    
  Sat, Jan 24 168 @UC Davis L 67-75 24%    
  Thu, Jan 29 286 Long Beach St. W 74-70 64%    
  Sat, Jan 31 243 Cal Poly W 81-80 55%    
  Thu, Feb 5 303 @Cal St. Fullerton L 80-81 45%    
  Sat, Feb 7 253 @Cal St. Northridge L 75-79 36%    
  Thu, Feb 12 148 UC Santa Barbara L 71-75 37%    
  Sat, Feb 14 102 @UC San Diego L 67-81 11%    
  Thu, Feb 19 280 Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-71 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 168 UC Davis L 70-72 42%    
  Thu, Feb 26 148 @UC Santa Barbara L 68-78 20%    
  Sat, Feb 28 253 Cal St. Northridge W 78-76 57%    
  Fri, Mar 6 108 @Hawaii L 66-79 12%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.9 1.6 0.6 0.1 5.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.4 2.4 0.9 0.1 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.9 3.8 0.9 0.1 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.9 4.0 0.8 0.1 14.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.4 6.2 3.9 0.7 0.0 14.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 3.4 6.4 3.6 0.8 0.0 14.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.0 5.4 2.8 0.6 0.0 14.3 10th
11th 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.7 3.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 12.1 11th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.4 5.1 8.0 11.0 13.2 13.8 13.2 11.0 8.7 5.6 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 61.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 25.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 20.5% 20.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.4% 19.2% 19.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-6 0.9% 6.4% 6.4% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
13-7 1.9% 7.4% 7.4% 14.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.8
12-8 3.6% 3.3% 3.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
11-9 5.6% 2.9% 2.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.4
10-10 8.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 8.7
9-11 11.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.9
8-12 13.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.2
7-13 13.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.7
6-14 13.2% 13.2
5-15 11.0% 11.0
4-16 8.0% 8.0
3-17 5.1% 5.1
2-18 2.4% 2.4
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%