Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.2 322
Expected Predictive Rating -8.6 303
Pace 72.5 76
Improvement -1.4 255

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #321 F+ C D B F+
Defense D+ #303 D+ D- C+ D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 218 51% 321 -3.2 289
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 11 34% 305 +3.6 35
Three Pointers 29% 358 30% 319 -7.7 356
1st FG Attempt 0.87 355 -7.2 355
Second Chance 32.3% 132 0.98 252 0.32 161
Turnovers 19.5% 322
Freethrows 0.35 53 74% 128 0.26 51
Total Offense -5.9 321

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 115 57% 167 -1.3 221
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 270 46% 359 -0.3 217
Three Pointers 41% 173 35% 213 -0.5 206
1st FG Attempt 1.06 251 -2.2 250
Second Chance 37.4% 358 1.05 218 0.39 340
Turnovers 17.6% 135
Freethrows 0.37 329 72% 163 0.26 322
Total Defense -4.3 303

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.7 347 +0.6 274
Shot Type Accuracy -5.6 342 +1.5 237
Possession Length 17.4 187 16.0 17
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 147 0.22 326
Improvement -0.9 #242 -0.5 #216

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 82% 64% 84%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Home) - 13.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 60 - 7
Quad 32 - 93 - 16
Quad 45 - 78 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 73 @California L 60 - 87 4% -14  0% 0 - 1 F+ -16 F -13 D- F+ F C- -2 F+ F+ A-
 Tue, Nov 11 362 Western Illinois W 74 - 58 82% +7  89% 1 - 1 C- -4 D- -7 F+ D- F B- +4 F+ C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 65 @Mississippi L 60 - 82 3% -11  2% 1 - 2 D -11 C- -2 C C D- F -11 B+ D- F
 Mon, Nov 17 142 @Portland St. L 80 - 93 10% -7  0% 1 - 3 D -9 B +6 D+ A+ F+ F -14 F F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86 - 70 93% +10  73% 2 - 3 D -11 D- -6 F B B+ D -6 D- B F
 Tue, Nov 25 93 @Florida St. L 59 - 89 5% -13  12% 2 - 4 F -22 F -20 F B F B- +2 C+ D- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 140 @Fresno St. W 76 - 71 10% -4  13% 3 - 4 B +9 B- +4 D+ D A+ B +5 A+ F A-
 Thu, Dec 4 186 @Cal St. Northridge L 66 - 87 14% -7  17% 3 - 5 0 - 1 F -20 F -13 F A- F D -6 D- F C
 Sat, Dec 6 133 @UC Santa Barbara L 84 - 109 9% -14  2% 3 - 6 0 - 2 F -20 B- +5 A F C+ F -24 F F D-
 Thu, Dec 11 146 North Dakota St. L 69 - 80 22% -6  14% 3 - 7 D- -13 F -12 F B D- C -1 A+ F B
 Sat, Dec 13 291 Pepperdine L 62 - 70 52% -4  12% 3 - 8 F -19 F -15 F F F D+ -4 F A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 23 189 Idaho W 64 - 63 31% +2  72% 4 - 8 C- -4 F+ -9 C+ C F B +5 A C- C+
 Thu, Jan 1 119 UC Irvine L 77 - 81 17% -6  0% 4 - 9 0 - 3 C- -4 B +6 C A- A F+ -10 F F A
 Sat, Jan 3 180 @UC Davis W 81 - 79 14% -2  27% 5 - 9 1 - 3 C+ +4 B- +5 D B+ A C -1 C- F+ B-
 Thu, Jan 8 293 UC Riverside W 67 - 66 52% +0  53% 6 - 9 2 - 3 D -10 F -13 F A+ F B- +3 D+ A A-
 Sat, Jan 10 251 @Long Beach St. L 75 - 81 22% -5  23% 6 - 10 2 - 4 D -8 D- -7 D+ F D+ C -1 D+ F+ A-
 Thu, Jan 15 133 UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 75 20% -9  0% 6 - 11 2 - 5 D+ -7 C- -1 F A+ A D -7 C B- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 139 UC San Diego L 62 - 83 21% -13  6% 6 - 12 2 - 6 F -23 F -14 D- F F D- -9 C+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 102 @Hawaii L 71 - 98 6% -18  0% 6 - 13 2 - 7 F -19 D+ -4 F+ F A+ F -13 B F D
 Thu, Jan 29 265 Cal Poly L 79 - 104 45% -15  15% 6 - 14 2 - 8 F -34 F+ -10 D+ B+ F F -22 F F+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 180 UC Davis L 72 - 80 29% -0  36% 6 - 15 2 - 9 D- -12 D -5 C B- D- D- -7 B+ F F+
 Thu, Feb 5 119 @UC Irvine L 62 - 78 8% -5  26% 6 - 16 2 - 10 D -10 F+ -9 F A- F C -1 C+ A- F
 Sat, Feb 7 210 @Cal St. Fullerton L 66 - 82 17% -16  0% 6 - 17 2 - 11 F+ -16 F -12 F C- D C- -3 D- B+ C-
 Thu, Feb 12 102 Hawaii L 68 - 80 13%
 Thu, Feb 19 293 @UC Riverside L 72 - 77 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 210 Cal St. Fullerton L 78 - 82 34%
 Thu, Feb 26 139 @UC San Diego L 67 - 81 9%
 Sat, Feb 28 251 Long Beach St. L 75 - 77 42%
 Thu, Mar 5 186 Cal St. Northridge L 79 - 85 30%
 Sat, Mar 7 265 @Cal Poly L 80 - 87 25%
Totals 8 - 22 4 - 16 -10 D -6 F+ C D D+ -4 D+ D- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D D D D- 37% 34% 29% F+ F+ C+ C- C D B C+ B D+ C F C- C- 41% 18% 41% D+ D+ F C- D- C+ D- C D
1.00 51% 34% 30% -6 -2 0.87 32% 1.0 .32 19% .35 74% .26 1.15 57% 46% 35% +2 +1 1.06 37% 1.0 .39 18% .37 72% .25
Nov
3		 California F F D D D- 51% 33% 16% D D- B- F F+ F A+ C- A+ C- F F A+ D- 47% 14% 39% F F+ F B- F+ A- F A- D
0.82 43% 33% 29% -10 -1 0.80 31% 0.5 .14 23% .54 63% .34 1.19 75% 86% 25% +9 +2 1.24 40% 1.0 .40 19% .42 72% .30
Nov
11		 Western Illinois D- D- D C+ F+ 46% 19% 35% C F+ B F D- F B+ A- A- B- A D F F 34% 34% 32% B- F+ F A+ C+ A+ D- A+ C
1.10 55% 33% 35% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.8 .29 19% .37 80% .30 0.87 40% 40% 43% -1 -2 0.95 35% 0.6 .22 25% .36 56% .20
Nov
14		 Mississippi C- C+ B- F C+ 41% 39% 20% D C B- D+ C D- A+ D- A+ F A+ F A+ A 44% 25% 31% F B+ F A D- F F C- F
0.96 56% 41% 22% -3 -2 0.91 32% 1.0 .32 21% .51 64% .32 1.31 48% 67% 20% -4 0 0.94 47% 0.9 .42 6% .43 76% .33
Nov
17		 Portland St. B F B- A- C 34% 32% 34% F D+ C+ A+ A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ F D- A+ F F 55% 11% 34% F F D- F F C+ F B F
1.08 38% 40% 38% -4 -2 0.89 30% 1.9 .58 23% .51 79% .40 1.26 65% 20% 56% +14 +3 1.34 37% 1.4 .52 20% .44 65% .29
Nov
22		 Mississippi Valley D- D+ F+ F F 32% 25% 43% D- F C+ A- B B+ A+ F+ A+ D C+ F A+ D- 35% 46% 19% C+ D- B- B+ B F F A F
1.15 59% 31% 26% -7 -1 0.87 38% 1.4 .52 13% .65 69% .45 0.94 53% 50% 22% 0 -3 0.96 22% 0.8 .16 16% .46 62% .29
Nov
25		 Florida St. F D+ F F F 49% 31% 20% C F B+ C+ B F A+ F A+ B- C- F A+ B 44% 2% 54% F C+ D- D+ D- A+ F F+ F
0.73 55% 21% 11% -14 -1 0.73 36% 1.0 .36 35% .49 62% .30 1.10 63% 100% 24% -5 +3 0.98 38% 1.2 .46 21% .45 79% .36
Nov
30		 Fresno St. B- B A+ F C- 34% 38% 28% F D+ D D+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ B C+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 10% 49% D- A+ F F F A- D D D-
1.07 67% 50% 7% -4 -3 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 14% .39 96% .38 1.00 57% 0% 16% -17 +2 0.71 44% 1.3 .58 22% .34 79% .27
Dec
4		 Cal St. Northridge F F F F F 31% 31% 38% F+ F A C A- F A+ B A+ D C- F C+ D 57% 8% 35% F D- F F+ F C F A+ C-
0.89 40% 27% 22% -16 -2 0.67 38% 1.2 .45 24% .43 79% .34 1.17 59% 75% 33% +3 +3 1.14 41% 1.1 .46 18% .41 52% .21
Dec
6		 UC Santa Barbara B- C- C A+ A 37% 22% 41% C- A F F F C+ A+ D+ A+ F F+ F F F 38% 13% 48% D+ F F F F D- F D+ F
1.15 59% 40% 53% +12 0 1.26 17% 0.4 .07 16% .61 70% .43 1.50 70% 57% 44% +14 +1 1.33 47% 1.2 .56 15% .55 79% .44
Dec
11		 North Dakota St. F C F F F 35% 38% 27% F F B B- B D- A+ B+ A+ C A A+ A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% F A+ F F F B F C+ F
0.94 61% 25% 29% -6 -3 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 22% .37 81% .30 1.09 45% 25% 21% -16 +1 0.72 49% 1.3 .65 19% .62 70% .44
Dec
13		 Pepperdine F F D+ F F 40% 24% 36% D- F A- F F F A+ A+ A+ D+ D F F+ F 44% 19% 38% D- F F A+ A+ B+ F+ A D+
0.92 44% 36% 19% -14 0 0.73 40% 0.4 .18 22% .48 96% .46 1.04 62% 56% 39% +8 +1 1.19 35% 0.2 .06 22% .36 68% .25
Dec
23		 Idaho F+ B A- C B- 27% 33% 40% F+ C+ D+ B C F F F F B B- B- A A 31% 24% 45% A- A C- C- C- C+ B- F+ C
0.98 64% 47% 33% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.1 .26 20% .15 38% .06 0.96 53% 33% 27% -7 -1 0.86 29% 1.0 .29 17% .28 80% .22
Jan
1		 UC Irvine B D+ F+ A+ C+ 40% 40% 19% F+ C A+ C A- A B A- B+ F+ C+ C F F 29% 47% 24% A+ F C- F F A F C F
1.10 48% 30% 45% -4 -2 0.89 47% 0.9 .40 13% .30 78% .23 1.16 54% 38% 64% +10 -4 1.13 32% 1.6 .50 22% .46 68% .31
Jan
3		 UC Davis B- D C+ C- D+ 36% 25% 40% D- D C+ A- B+ A A A+ A+ C A D+ F C- 34% 11% 55% D- C- F+ D+ F+ B- F C F
1.13 53% 38% 33% -2 -1 0.96 33% 1.2 .39 14% .42 85% .36 1.10 47% 40% 42% +3 +1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 20% .62 75% .47
Jan
8		 UC Riverside F C- F A+ F 24% 57% 18% F F A B+ A+ F B- A- B+ B- A+ D- F D+ 42% 18% 40% D+ D+ B A+ A A- C A+ B
0.96 58% 18% 44% -9 -6 0.73 41% 1.1 .46 21% .36 75% .27 0.94 33% 44% 50% 0 +1 1.04 24% 0.6 .13 23% .30 63% .19
Jan
10		 Long Beach St. D- A F C D+ 45% 26% 28% C- D+ D- F F D+ D A+ C C C+ B- F D 35% 31% 33% C D+ B F F+ A- F C- F
0.99 71% 14% 33% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 19% .32 85% .28 1.07 59% 33% 44% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.6 .37 21% .49 76% .37
Jan
15		 UC Santa Barbara C- D+ A F F 39% 39% 22% F F B+ A+ A+ A B C- B- D C F D C- 24% 14% 62% B- C D+ A- B- C- F D+ F
1.12 56% 50% 10% -4 -2 0.89 33% 1.4 .45 13% .39 71% .28 1.21 60% 50% 38% +6 0 1.14 34% 0.8 .28 18% .57 79% .45
Jan
17		 UC San Diego F F F C D 29% 29% 43% F+ D- C+ F F F A+ C+ A+ D- B+ A+ F C+ 43% 14% 43% C C+ B F D- F D D+ D
0.87 43% 29% 33% -7 -2 0.84 31% 0.4 .12 21% .48 70% .34 1.17 50% 25% 42% 0 +1 1.04 23% 1.4 .33 11% .32 70% .22
Jan
22		 Hawaii D+ F D- D- F+ 43% 36% 21% F+ F+ F A F A+ A+ B+ A+ F F A- A+ B+ 38% 14% 48% C+ B F F F D F F+ F
0.92 39% 32% 27% -13 -2 0.74 12% 1.2 .15 9% .55 72% .40 1.27 74% 29% 21% -5 +1 0.94 45% 1.5 .68 17% .53 79% .42
Jan
29		 Cal Poly F+ F A B- C 31% 29% 40% F D+ B B+ B+ F D- F F F F A+ F F 49% 2% 49% F F F A- F+ B+ D+ F F
1.02 47% 50% 36% +2 -2 1.02 37% 1.2 .45 22% .23 50% .12 1.34 78% 0% 41% +14 +3 1.36 48% 0.8 .38 24% .34 100% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC Davis D D- B+ A+ C+ 39% 30% 30% F C D+ A+ B- D- B- D+ C+ D- C+ D- B+ B 29% 29% 42% A B+ D- F F F+ F D- F
1.03 50% 43% 43% +2 -1 1.04 28% 1.3 .34 22% .37 70% .26 1.15 57% 43% 30% -1 -2 0.96 31% 1.4 .44 14% .52 81% .42
Feb
5		 UC Irvine F+ F C- F F+ 28% 54% 18% F F B- A A- F B A+ A+ C C F+ A+ B 57% 20% 23% F C+ F A+ A- F F A+ F+
0.85 29% 37% 22% -12 -5 0.68 37% 1.1 .39 26% .30 94% .28 1.07 56% 45% 15% -6 +1 0.93 40% 0.6 .23 10% .47 58% .27
Feb
7		 Cal St. Fullerton F D D F F 42% 17% 40% C+ F B- F+ C- D A+ F C C- A F F F+ 35% 15% 50% C- D- D- A+ B+ C- D+ D+ D
0.89 55% 33% 19% -11 +1 0.81 33% 0.9 .28 22% .41 54% .22 1.11 44% 63% 42% +5 0 1.13 31% 0.5 .15 15% .36 74% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.1 1.8 8th
9th 0.2 3.2 3.8 0.8 0.1 7.9 9th
10th 1.2 10.5 10.9 2.6 0.1 25.2 10th
11th 12.8 28.3 20.3 3.4 0.1 64.9 11th
Total 12.8 29.5 30.9 17.5 7.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12 0.2% 0.2
7-13 2.0% 2.0
6-14 7.1% 7.1
5-15 17.5% 17.5
4-16 30.9% 30.9
3-17 29.5% 29.5
2-18 12.8% 12.8
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 12.8%