UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#170
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#140
Pace67.8#228
Improvement-0.1#203

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#232
First Shot+0.2#168
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#322
Layup/Dunks-1.1#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#171
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#197
Freethrows+1.9#81
Improvement+0.4#150

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#128
First Shot-1.4#222
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#36
Layups/Dunks+0.2#162
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#142
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#270
Freethrows+0.1#174
Improvement-0.5#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 9.5% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 66.8% 85.2% 63.5%
.500 or above in Conference 66.7% 78.1% 64.7%
Conference Champion 4.2% 7.4% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 1.0% 2.9%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round6.1% 9.5% 5.5%
Second Round0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 15.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 66 - 10
Quad 411 - 417 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 155 North Dakota St. W 80-68 59%     1 - 0 +8.8 +8.5 +0.5
  Sun, Nov 9 275 @Portland L 63-67 58%     1 - 1 -7.0 -10.9 +3.9
  Fri, Nov 14 278 Sacramento St. W 77-73 78%     2 - 1 -5.1 -2.0 -3.3
  Tue, Nov 18 106 @Nevada W 75-71 21%     3 - 1 +11.3 +1.4 +9.7
  Fri, Nov 21 63 @Colorado L 79-95 12%     3 - 2 -4.3 +9.2 -13.6
  Mon, Nov 24 319 Louisiana W 77-56 85%     4 - 2 +9.1 +6.5 +4.1
  Thu, Dec 4 104 @Hawaii L 69-75 21%     4 - 3 0 - 1 +1.4 +1.9 -0.3
  Sat, Dec 13 81 @Oregon L 66-77 15%    
  Wed, Dec 17 113 Seattle L 67-69 44%    
  Sun, Dec 21 168 @Idaho St. L 66-69 38%    
  Thu, Jan 1 261 Cal St. Northridge W 79-72 76%    
  Sat, Jan 3 295 Cal St. Bakersfield W 77-68 81%    
  Thu, Jan 8 141 @UC Santa Barbara L 69-74 31%    
  Sat, Jan 10 252 @Cal Poly W 79-78 54%    
  Thu, Jan 15 303 Cal St. Fullerton W 83-73 82%    
  Sat, Jan 17 120 UC Irvine L 66-67 47%    
  Thu, Jan 22 103 UC San Diego L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 258 UC Riverside W 75-68 74%    
  Thu, Jan 29 261 @Cal St. Northridge W 76-75 55%    
  Sat, Jan 31 295 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-71 61%    
  Thu, Feb 5 141 UC Santa Barbara W 72-71 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 252 Cal Poly W 82-75 74%    
  Thu, Feb 12 103 @UC San Diego L 68-77 22%    
  Sat, Feb 14 280 Long Beach St. W 75-66 78%    
  Thu, Feb 19 303 @Cal St. Fullerton W 80-76 64%    
  Sat, Feb 21 258 @UC Riverside W 72-71 55%    
  Thu, Feb 26 104 Hawaii L 70-72 42%    
  Thu, Mar 5 280 @Long Beach St. W 72-69 59%    
  Sat, Mar 7 120 @UC Irvine L 63-70 27%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 2.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.7 3.9 1.3 0.1 13.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.1 6.6 4.0 1.1 0.1 17.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.8 6.9 3.3 0.6 0.0 19.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.1 5.1 4.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.0 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.6 2.1 0.5 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.6 5.9 8.8 11.1 12.6 13.2 12.8 10.6 8.1 5.2 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 96.1% 0.3    0.3 0.0 0.0
17-3 79.7% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
16-4 52.3% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.2
15-5 19.7% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 2.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.3% 41.7% 41.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 1.3% 36.4% 36.4% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8
16-4 2.6% 27.2% 27.2% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9
15-5 5.2% 19.6% 19.6% 13.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.2
14-6 8.1% 13.6% 13.6% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 7.0
13-7 10.6% 9.3% 9.3% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.6
12-8 12.8% 5.7% 5.7% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 12.0
11-9 13.2% 3.4% 3.4% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 12.7
10-10 12.6% 2.3% 2.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.3
9-11 11.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.0
8-12 8.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 8.7
7-13 5.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.9
6-14 3.6% 3.6
5-15 2.2% 2.2
4-16 1.1% 1.1
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 93.9 0.0%