UC San Diego
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.7#103
Expected Predictive Rating+11.2#57
Pace67.9#224
Improvement-0.9#242

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#75
First Shot+5.8#37
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#273
Layup/Dunks+3.7#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#23
Freethrows-1.9#295
Improvement+1.4#70

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#159
First Shot+4.1#56
After Offensive Rebounds-3.8#346
Layups/Dunks+1.9#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#48
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#297
Freethrows+3.5#18
Improvement-2.3#334
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.9% 31.6% 25.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 12.6
.500 or above 99.7% 99.8% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 98.3% 96.6%
Conference Champion 40.1% 42.7% 33.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round29.8% 31.6% 25.0%
Second Round4.6% 5.0% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 0.9% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Neutral) - 73.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 39 - 311 - 6
Quad 414 - 224 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 263 Houston Christian W 78-60 89%     1 - 0 +9.5 -0.1 +9.8
  Wed, Nov 12 183 @Fresno St. W 78-73 63%     2 - 0 +6.3 +6.1 +0.2
  Sat, Nov 15 173 Idaho W 75-67 80%     3 - 0 +3.9 -2.1 +6.0
  Mon, Nov 24 160 Temple W 91-76 69%     4 - 0 +14.6 +16.1 -1.1
  Tue, Nov 25 115 Bradley W 87-77 55%     5 - 0 +13.4 +17.3 -3.8
  Wed, Nov 26 125 Towson W 87-73 59%     6 - 0 +16.4 +23.5 -5.8
  Tue, Dec 2 106 @Nevada L 70-76 40%     6 - 1 +1.3 +6.9 -6.1
  Sat, Dec 6 280 @Long Beach St. W 80-74 78%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +2.5 +7.7 -5.0
  Sun, Dec 14 187 Tulane W 79-73 73%    
  Tue, Dec 16 140 @Loyola Marymount W 72-71 51%    
  Fri, Dec 19 264 San Diego W 85-72 89%    
  Thu, Jan 1 252 @Cal Poly W 87-80 74%    
  Sat, Jan 3 104 Hawaii W 76-73 62%    
  Thu, Jan 8 303 Cal St. Fullerton W 91-75 93%    
  Sat, Jan 10 258 @UC Riverside W 78-71 74%    
  Thu, Jan 15 261 Cal St. Northridge W 86-73 89%    
  Sat, Jan 17 295 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 81-72 80%    
  Thu, Jan 22 170 @UC Davis W 74-71 60%    
  Sat, Jan 24 120 UC Irvine W 73-68 67%    
  Thu, Jan 29 141 UC Santa Barbara W 79-73 72%    
  Sat, Jan 31 261 @Cal St. Northridge W 83-76 74%    
  Thu, Feb 5 280 Long Beach St. W 81-67 90%    
  Sun, Feb 8 104 @Hawaii L 73-76 40%    
  Thu, Feb 12 170 UC Davis W 77-68 78%    
  Sat, Feb 14 258 UC Riverside W 81-68 88%    
  Sat, Feb 21 120 @UC Irvine L 70-71 46%    
  Thu, Feb 26 295 Cal St. Bakersfield W 84-69 91%    
  Sat, Feb 28 252 Cal Poly W 90-77 87%    
  Thu, Mar 5 303 @Cal St. Fullerton W 88-78 80%    
  Sat, Mar 7 141 @UC Santa Barbara W 76-75 52%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.0 9.0 11.3 9.0 4.7 1.1 40.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.7 8.5 6.4 2.3 0.3 25.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.1 5.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 16.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.5 2.9 1.2 0.1 9.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.2 7.1 10.4 13.6 15.5 16.0 13.6 9.3 4.7 1.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
19-1 100.0% 4.7    4.6 0.1
18-2 96.5% 9.0    8.1 0.9 0.0
17-3 82.9% 11.3    8.6 2.6 0.1
16-4 56.4% 9.0    4.8 3.5 0.7 0.0
15-5 26.0% 4.0    1.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.7% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 40.1% 40.1 28.8 9.4 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.1% 63.6% 59.3% 4.2% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 10.4%
19-1 4.7% 57.8% 57.3% 0.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.1 0.1 2.0 1.3%
18-2 9.3% 48.2% 48.1% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 1.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 4.8 0.2%
17-3 13.6% 44.9% 44.9% 12.2 0.0 0.5 3.9 1.6 0.1 7.5
16-4 16.0% 36.4% 36.4% 0.0% 12.4 0.2 3.2 2.1 0.3 10.2 0.0%
15-5 15.5% 29.3% 29.3% 12.7 0.0 1.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.9
14-6 13.6% 21.1% 21.1% 13.0 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 10.7
13-7 10.4% 14.9% 14.9% 13.2 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 8.8
12-8 7.1% 10.0% 10.0% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 6.4
11-9 4.2% 5.8% 5.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.9
10-10 2.4% 3.8% 3.8% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.3
9-11 1.2% 3.3% 3.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
8-12 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.6
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 29.9% 29.8% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.4 14.0 9.5 2.2 0.2 70.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 8.6 1.6 6.4 16.0 10.4 9.6 15.2 14.4 22.4 4.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 22.2% 10.8 5.6 16.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 12.5% 11.5 6.3 6.3