UC San Diego
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.2 139
Expected Predictive Rating +1.6 138
Pace 68.4 192
Improvement -8.0 362

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #191 C+ D+ C+ D B
Defense C+ #105 B- C C- B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 96 59% 147 +2.3 102
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 321 36% 259 -3.1 324
Three Pointers 45% 104 35% 135 +2.7 92
1st FG Attempt 1.06 115 +1.9 114
Second Chance 26.8% 284 1.00 217 0.27 273
Turnovers 15.9% 121
Freethrows 0.27 285 68% 323 0.18 317
Total Offense -1.0 191

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 303 54% 80 +3.8 59
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 216 38% 178 +0.5 148
Three Pointers 46% 40 32% 83 -1.2 244
1st FG Attempt 0.96 77 +3.1 79
Second Chance 29.3% 124 1.06 250 0.31 186
Turnovers 16.3% 213
Freethrows 0.27 80 70% 52 0.19 61
Total Defense +2.2 105

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.2 42 -0.1 143
Shot Type Accuracy +0.7 150 -2.9 68
Possession Length 16.5 92 18.0 292
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 114 0.18 195
Improvement -9.9 #365 +1.9 #84

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7% 8% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.2 13.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 81% 91% 59%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round7% 8% 5%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Home) - 68.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 39 - 510 - 8
Quad 410 - 420 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 298 Houston Christian W 78 - 60 87% +13  76% 1 - 0 B- +7 D+ -3 C+ D- C+ A +11 C B+ A
 Wed, Nov 12 140 @Fresno St. W 78 - 73 39% +4  74% 2 - 0 B +9 B +6 A B- F B- +3 C+ B- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 189 Idaho W 75 - 67 72% -3  25% 3 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -3 C+ D C- B +6 A C- C-
 Mon, Nov 24 148 Temple W 91 - 76 52% +9  88% 4 - 0 A- +16 A+ +16 A+ F A+ C -0 B+ F D-
 Tue, Nov 25 120 Bradley W 87 - 77 44% +3  68% 5 - 0 B+ +13 A +13 C+ A A+ C +0 B- F A
 Wed, Nov 26 172 Towson W 87 - 73 58% +13  96% 6 - 0 B+ +13 A+ +22 A+ C+ A D -7 C+ D D-
 Tue, Dec 2 66 @Nevada L 70 - 76 17% -4  7% 6 - 1 B- +5 B- +5 D- B+ A+ C -0 C- D C
 Sat, Dec 6 251 @Long Beach St. W 80 - 74 62% +4  75% 7 - 1 1 - 0 C+ +4 B +6 A F C+ C- -2 D+ B F+
 Sat, Dec 13 174 Tulane W 93 - 67 58% +16  90% 8 - 1 A+ +25 B+ +8 A- C- B A+ +15 A B+ A-
 Tue, Dec 16 151 @Loyola Marymount W 67 - 57 41% +3  65% 9 - 1 B+ +13 D -5 B C F A+ +18 B A+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 216 San Diego L 80 - 82 75% -7  6% 9 - 2 D+ -8 A- +9 B- C A F -17 C F D+
 Thu, Jan 1 265 @Cal Poly L 65 - 67 66% +2  77% 9 - 3 1 - 1 D+ -5 F+ -9 F B C B +4 A D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 102 Hawaii W 83 - 73 47% +7  72% 10 - 3 2 - 1 B+ +12 A+ +15 A- A A C- -3 B- D- D
 Thu, Jan 8 210 Cal St. Fullerton L 71 - 88 75% -4  45% 10 - 4 2 - 2 F -23 D -5 F+ A F F -18 F D F
 Sat, Jan 10 293 @UC Riverside W 69 - 66 72% -1  41% 11 - 4 3 - 2 C- -2 D+ -2 C+ C- D- C+ +1 A- F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 186 Cal St. Northridge L 79 - 84 71% -2  22% 11 - 5 3 - 3 D -10 C- -2 F+ C+ A+ D- -8 B F F
 Sat, Jan 17 322 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 83 - 62 79% +13  89% 12 - 5 4 - 3 B+ +14 C+ +3 C- D A+ A +10 C+ A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 22 180 @UC Davis W 80 - 74 48% +1  58% 13 - 5 5 - 3 B- +8 C +1 B+ D- D- B+ +6 A B D-
 Sat, Jan 24 119 UC Irvine L 59 - 61 55% -1  26% 13 - 6 5 - 4 C- -2 F -12 C F A A +10 B+ A- D
 Thu, Jan 29 133 UC Santa Barbara L 48 - 62 59% -9  4% 13 - 7 5 - 5 F+ -15 F -28 D- F F A +12 A+ B+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 186 @Cal St. Northridge L 64 - 81 49% -7  10% 13 - 8 5 - 6 F+ -16 F -15 F D C+ C+ +1 C F+ B+
 Thu, Feb 5 251 Long Beach St. W 77 - 74 81% -1  32% 14 - 8 6 - 6 D+ -5 D- -7 C- C F C+ +2 C- A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 102 @Hawaii L 67 - 72 26% -4  22% 14 - 9 6 - 7 C+ +3 D -5 B- F B- B+ +8 B B C
 Thu, Feb 12 180 UC Davis W 76 - 71 69%
 Sat, Feb 14 293 UC Riverside W 77 - 65 87%
 Sat, Feb 21 119 @UC Irvine L 67 - 72 33%
 Thu, Feb 26 322 Cal St. Bakersfield W 81 - 67 91%
 Sat, Feb 28 265 Cal Poly W 85 - 75 83%
 Thu, Mar 5 210 @Cal St. Fullerton W 77 - 76 55%
 Sat, Mar 7 133 @UC Santa Barbara L 71 - 75 37%
Totals 19 - 11 11 - 9 +1 C- -1 C+ D+ C+ C+ +2 B- C C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C D+ C+ C 42% 13% 45% B C+ D+ C- D+ C+ D+ D- D C+ B- C B- B- 34% 19% 46% C+ B- C+ C- C C- B- B B
1.07 59% 36% 35% +1 +1 1.06 27% 1.0 .27 16% .27 68% .18 1.05 54% 38% 32% -3 0 0.96 29% 1.1 .31 16% .27 70% .19
Nov
8		 Houston Christian D+ B- C A B- 36% 16% 48% D+ C+ D- D+ D- C+ D- B D A D- A- B- C 34% 22% 44% B- C A+ C- B+ A C+ A+ A+
1.12 67% 38% 42% +9 0 1.20 27% 1.0 .27 17% .23 77% .17 0.86 65% 27% 32% -1 0 0.98 19% 0.9 .16 23% .26 36% .09
Nov
12		 Fresno St. B A+ A+ C- A 27% 10% 63% B- A B+ D+ B- F C- F F B- A- D- C- C+ 41% 18% 41% C C+ F+ A+ B- B- F+ C F+
1.10 86% 60% 30% +6 +1 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 25% .24 46% .11 1.03 50% 44% 35% -1 0 1.00 35% 0.7 .24 20% .37 76% .28
Nov
15		 Idaho D+ B+ F D- C 50% 15% 35% A C+ F A+ D C- A+ A- A+ B A+ A- C- A 24% 14% 62% B- A C+ D- C- C- D B- D+
1.07 67% 29% 29% +1 +2 1.06 13% 1.5 .19 16% .48 79% .37 0.96 25% 29% 35% -8 0 0.86 26% 1.1 .29 16% .34 70% .24
Nov
24		 Temple A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 18% 44% C A+ F F F A+ C+ F F C C- A- A A- 38% 19% 43% C- B+ B- F F D- D- B D+
1.33 76% 70% 50% +23 0 1.49 7% 0.5 .04 7% .32 45% .14 1.11 60% 30% 26% -6 0 0.91 26% 1.5 .39 10% .42 73% .31
Nov
25		 Bradley A D- D B+ C- 41% 12% 47% A+ C+ D+ A+ A A+ A+ C+ A+ C A F+ C+ B 31% 14% 55% D B- F F F A B+ C+ B+
1.24 50% 33% 39% 0 +1 1.04 27% 1.7 .45 13% .51 74% .38 1.10 47% 43% 33% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.5 .55 20% .27 73% .20
Nov
26		 Towson A+ A- D+ A+ A+ 31% 22% 47% D+ A+ D- A+ C+ A C- F F D C+ B C C 25% 33% 42% B+ C+ D D+ D D- D+ F F+
1.36 67% 36% 65% +24 -1 1.49 20% 1.4 .28 11% .26 47% .12 1.14 54% 35% 32% -3 -3 0.90 39% 0.9 .34 14% .31 82% .25
Dec
2		 Nevada B- D- C+ F F 56% 9% 35% A+ D- B- A B+ A+ F C+ F C D D- B+ C- 46% 20% 35% F+ C- D- C D C C- A+ A-
1.09 47% 40% 20% -13 +3 0.81 30% 1.4 .42 6% .18 73% .13 1.18 62% 44% 31% +2 +1 1.07 39% 1.1 .42 12% .39 59% .23
Dec
6		 Long Beach St. B B+ D- A+ A 45% 13% 43% B+ A F F F C+ A- C+ A- C- C- F C D+ 29% 23% 48% D+ D+ C+ A- B F+ A B A
1.18 67% 33% 45% +10 +1 1.26 18% 0.8 .14 16% .44 76% .33 1.09 63% 46% 33% +3 -1 1.05 25% 0.9 .22 13% .17 70% .12
Dec
13		 Tulane B+ B F A- B 53% 5% 42% A+ A- B F C- B F C- F+ A+ C C+ A+ A 42% 25% 33% C+ A C+ A+ B+ A- B- A A-
1.19 63% 0% 40% +4 +3 1.17 40% 0.8 .30 15% .24 69% .17 0.86 58% 36% 16% -9 0 0.82 20% 0.9 .17 19% .35 68% .24
Dec
16		 Loyola Marymount D A- F F C+ 57% 16% 27% A+ B B+ F+ C F B+ F D- A+ A- F B B 24% 20% 57% C B A- A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+
0.95 64% 25% 23% -3 +2 1.00 37% 0.8 .31 23% .35 47% .16 0.80 50% 50% 31% -2 -1 0.96 21% 0.5 .11 25% .19 40% .08
Dec
19		 San Diego A- B- A+ D+ C+ 44% 6% 50% A- B- F+ A+ C A D B D+ F B+ F C C+ 38% 15% 47% F+ C F F+ F D+ B- F D-
1.26 65% 67% 31% +3 +2 1.12 28% 1.4 .38 14% .29 75% .22 1.29 52% 50% 35% 0 +1 1.04 39% 1.1 .45 16% .21 109% .22
Jan
1		 Cal Poly F+ F F F F 32% 15% 53% C- F C+ B B C D- A+ C- B C A+ A A 26% 7% 67% B A D- C D+ F A- A- A
0.98 41% 25% 25% -14 0 0.74 35% 1.2 .42 17% .23 85% .20 1.01 57% 0% 28% -9 +1 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 14% .24 71% .17
Jan
3		 Hawaii A+ D A+ C- B+ 45% 13% 42% B+ A- B- A+ A A D- A+ C+ C- C+ F A+ B 46% 9% 46% D B- A F D- D C+ F D
1.23 48% 86% 30% -1 +2 1.04 31% 1.3 .41 12% .25 87% .22 1.08 57% 75% 24% -4 +2 0.98 23% 1.7 .40 16% .34 84% .28
Jan
8		 Cal St. Fullerton D C+ D F F 27% 6% 67% B- F+ B A A F A- A+ A+ F F A+ F F 29% 21% 50% B F A F D F D A C
1.02 62% 33% 27% -6 +1 0.92 35% 1.3 .44 24% .38 90% .34 1.27 73% 9% 50% +10 -1 1.21 18% 1.7 .30 9% .38 63% .24
Jan
10		 UC Riverside D+ A+ C- F C 49% 12% 39% B+ C+ C D+ C- D- A+ C- A+ C+ B- D+ A+ B+ 27% 24% 49% A- A- F+ F F C+ F F F
1.07 75% 40% 25% +3 +2 1.12 31% 0.9 .28 19% .47 68% .32 1.02 54% 42% 25% -7 -1 0.86 33% 1.2 .38 20% .39 85% .33
Jan
15		 Cal St. Northridge C- D C+ F F+ 38% 17% 45% B- F+ D- A+ C+ A+ C- C- C- D- B+ F+ A- B+ 48% 20% 31% C+ B D F F F F C F
1.09 52% 40% 26% -7 0 0.88 21% 1.7 .36 8% .29 74% .21 1.16 50% 45% 29% -4 +1 0.94 36% 1.2 .44 10% .44 66% .29
Jan
17		 Cal St. Bakersfield C+ D- F A+ C- 43% 14% 43% B- C- F A+ D A+ D D+ D- A A A- C- B- 29% 29% 43% C C+ C+ A+ A+ B- F B F
1.17 50% 25% 42% 0 +1 1.04 23% 1.4 .33 11% .32 70% .22 0.87 43% 29% 33% -7 -2 0.84 31% 0.4 .12 21% .48 70% .34
Jan
22		 UC Davis C A- A+ D- B 45% 8% 47% B B+ B- F D- D- A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ B- F A+ 38% 16% 47% D A B- B+ B D- C+ A B+
1.08 68% 75% 30% +5 +2 1.16 34% 0.6 .22 22% .46 70% .33 0.99 27% 33% 41% -8 +1 0.88 24% 0.9 .22 15% .33 67% .22
Jan
24		 UC Irvine F C- C- D+ C 31% 19% 50% C C F F F A F D- F A A- C B+ B+ 40% 35% 25% B B+ A+ D+ A- D A A+ A+
0.84 50% 36% 31% -5 0 0.91 18% 0.0 .00 13% .15 67% .10 0.87 45% 37% 29% -7 -2 0.84 20% 1.1 .23 14% .22 54% .12
Jan
29		 UC Santa Barbara F D F B+ F 57% 12% 31% A D- C- F F F F F F A A+ A D A+ 24% 24% 51% A A+ A+ F+ B+ C D- A D+
0.73 54% 0% 38% -5 +2 0.98 26% 0.0 .00 29% .26 58% .15 0.95 36% 27% 39% -4 -2 0.91 21% 1.1 .24 18% .37 70% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Cal St. Northridge F F F D F 43% 16% 41% B F C+ F D C+ D+ F F C+ C+ F+ C+ C 48% 17% 35% C C F C- F+ B+ F F F
0.85 42% 22% 30% -12 +1 0.80 29% 0.9 .25 15% .28 44% .12 1.08 56% 44% 33% 0 +1 1.04 40% 1.0 .40 21% .39 78% .30
Feb
5		 Long Beach St. D- F C A D 47% 11% 43% A- C- B D- C F A+ D+ A+ C+ F B D D 28% 36% 36% B+ C- A+ F A+ C- D F F
1.03 45% 40% 40% -2 +2 1.02 32% 1.1 .35 24% .51 72% .37 0.99 73% 32% 37% +4 -3 1.04 3% 2.0 .06 16% .32 85% .27
Feb
7		 Hawaii D B- C+ D- B- 38% 18% 45% C B- F A+ F B- C- F D- B+ D- F A+ A- 42% 8% 50% D B D+ A B C D A C
0.90 57% 40% 28% -4 0 0.95 5% 2.0 .11 15% .28 56% .16 0.97 67% 50% 20% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.8 .28 19% .38 65% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.1 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.4 2.5 7.5 3rd
4th 0.7 8.3 9.9 0.5 19.4 4th
5th 0.2 6.8 15.1 3.2 0.0 25.4 5th
6th 0.2 4.3 15.0 6.5 0.2 26.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 9.0 5.2 0.4 17.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.1 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 4.2 14.6 27.8 30.8 17.9 4.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 4.2% 18.7% 18.7% 12.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 3.4
12-8 17.9% 11.6% 11.6% 13.0 0.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 15.9
11-9 30.8% 8.2% 8.2% 13.3 0.2 1.4 0.8 0.1 28.3
10-10 27.8% 4.8% 4.8% 13.6 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 26.4
9-11 14.6% 3.7% 3.7% 14.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 14.0
8-12 4.2% 2.6% 2.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 4.1
7-13 0.5% 0.5
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 13.2 92.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 12.4 3.8 57.7 37.2 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6%