Idaho
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.6 202
Expected Predictive Rating -2.6 210
Pace 67.8 207
Improvement -2.2 273

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 195 C D C+ C C+
Defense C- 219 C- B- D+ D B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 280 D+ 55% 253 -3.1 289
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 286 D+ 34% 302 -2.4 297
Three Pointers 49% 30 B- 36% 109 +5.5 30
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 141 C -0.5 189
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 177
Second Chance D+ 27.0% 278 D+ 0.95 288 D 0.26 301
Turnovers C+ 15.9% 116
Freethrows C- 0.30 220 C+ 73% 156 C 0.22 196
Total Offense C- -1.2 195

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 196 C- 59% 218 -0.3 192
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 34 D+ 41% 283 -3.1 354
Three Pointers 35% 331 C 34% 204 +2.7 68
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +0.4 141 C- -0.5 189
1st FG Attempt 1.03 205 C- -0.7 202
Second Chance B+ 25.9% 38 C- 1.05 230 B- 0.27 74
Turnovers D+ 15.0% 293
Freethrows D 0.35 309 C- 73% 247 D 0.26 311
Total Defense C- -1.4 219

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 222 17.1 156
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 316 0.18 198
Improvement -3.0 #321 +0.8 #132

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 7% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.4
.500 or above 33% 41% 14%
.500 or above in Conference 43% 53% 17%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 4%
First Four1% 0% 1%
First Round6% 7% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 71.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 96 - 12
Quad 48 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 125 @Washington St. W 83 - 81 23% +9  98% 1 - 0 B- +7 B +6 A- D+ C- C+ +1 A- B F
 Wed, Nov 12 215 @San Diego L 74 - 78 40% -5  2% 1 - 1 C- -4 C +1 C D F D+ -5 F C- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 140 @UC San Diego L 67 - 75 25% +3  62% 1 - 2 C- -3 D+ -4 D C- C+ C+ +0 C B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 26 185 Cal St. Northridge W 78 - 64 46% +4  61% 2 - 2 B+ +12 C- -2 F A C+ A+ +14 A+ B- D
 Fri, Nov 28 120 Sam Houston St. L 68 - 94 30% -4  41% 2 - 3 F -23 C +0 B- D+ A- F -26 F F F
 Wed, Dec 3 288 North Dakota W 90 - 58 77% +15  86% 3 - 3 A +22 B+ +8 A B+ C A+ +14 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 214 @South Dakota St. W 84 - 81 40% -1  34% 4 - 3 C+ +3 A- +10 A- D+ B D -7 C- A F
 Wed, Dec 10 83 @Notre Dame L 65 - 80 13% -5  4% 4 - 4 D+ -5 C +2 B- F+ A+ D- -9 F+ C D+
 Sun, Dec 21 259 @Cal Poly W 83 - 80 OT 50% +7  87% 5 - 4 C +1 D- -7 F+ D C- B+ +7 A A+ F+
 Tue, Dec 23 325 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 63 - 64 68% -2  20% 5 - 5 D -8 F -11 F F+ C+ B- +3 F B C+
 Sat, Jan 3 221 Eastern Washington W 84 - 81 64% +2  57% 6 - 5 1 - 0 C- -3 B- +4 B- B+ D D -7 A- F B+
 Thu, Jan 8 174 Montana L 73 - 79 54% -9  2% 6 - 6 1 - 1 D -10 D+ -3 F B+ A D -7 C- B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 157 Montana St. W 92 - 89 53% -9  4% 7 - 6 2 - 1 C -0 A+ +18 A+ F+ A+ F -18 F C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 15 257 @Idaho St. L 68 - 76 49% +2  70% 7 - 7 2 - 2 D -10 F+ -8 F A B- C- -3 F+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 224 @Weber St. W 75 - 67 42% +9  96% 8 - 7 3 - 2 B- +8 F+ -9 F+ C+ F A+ +16 A+ D+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 263 Sacramento St. W 86 - 76 72% +7  94% 9 - 7 4 - 2 C +1 C+ +3 A F C- C- -2 A- F D-
 Sat, Jan 24 144 Portland St. L 66 - 69 47% -5  10% 9 - 8 4 - 3 C- -5 D+ -4 C+ F+ C- C -1 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 171 @Northern Colorado L 83 - 91 32% -2  28% 9 - 9 4 - 4 D+ -6 C +1 D+ F A D -6 D B+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 315 @Northern Arizona W 79 - 62 64% +15  99% 10 - 9 5 - 4 B +11 C+ +3 B+ F B A- +9 B- C C+
 Thu, Feb 5 157 @Montana St. L 66 - 73 30% -9  3% 10 - 10 5 - 5 C- -4 F -10 C- F D- B +6 A C F+
 Sat, Feb 7 174 @Montana L 68 - 73 32% +2  60% 10 - 11 5 - 6 C- -3 D- -7 C- F C- B +4 D+ C+ C
 Thu, Feb 12 224 Weber St. L 72 - 83 64% -15  0% 10 - 12 5 - 7 F+ -17 D+ -2 C F A+ F -16 D- C- F
 Sat, Feb 14 257 Idaho St. W 76 - 70 71%
 Thu, Feb 19 144 @Portland St. L 67 - 74 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 263 @Sacramento St. W 80 - 79 51%
 Thu, Feb 26 315 Northern Arizona W 78 - 68 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 171 Northern Colorado W 77 - 76 54%
 Mon, Mar 2 221 @Eastern Washington L 75 - 77 42%
Totals 13 - 15 8 - 10 -3 F -1 D- C C+ C- -1 B- C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ D+ B- C 35% 16% 49% C+ C D+ D+ D C+ C- C+ C C- C- D+ C C- 38% 27% 35% B C- B+ C- B- D+ D C- D
1.07 55% 34% 36% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.0 .26 16% .30 73% .22 1.11 59% 41% 34% +1 -1 1.03 26% 1.1 .27 15% .35 73% .22
Nov
3		 Washington St. B C- A+ A A- 35% 12% 54% B+ A- D C+ D+ C- C+ C C+ C+ B- F A+ A 37% 16% 47% C- A- A+ F B F F C F
1.16 56% 67% 39% +7 +1 1.17 21% 1.1 .24 15% .31 74% .23 1.13 58% 75% 25% -1 +1 1.02 18% 1.3 .24 7% .51 74% .38
Nov
12		 San Diego C B- C- D C- 50% 11% 39% B+ C A+ F D F A+ B A+ D+ A- F F F 25% 27% 48% A- F B- F+ C- B- B- A+ B+
1.10 64% 40% 29% 0 +2 1.07 51% 0.6 .32 24% .49 76% .37 1.16 50% 54% 52% +15 -2 1.29 28% 1.1 .31 19% .20 64% .13
Nov
15		 UC San Diego D+ F F B- D 24% 14% 62% C D D+ B- C- C+ A- C+ A- C+ D- A- B+ C 50% 15% 35% D+ C A+ F B+ C- F F F
0.96 25% 29% 35% -8 0 0.86 26% 1.1 .29 16% .34 70% .24 1.07 67% 29% 29% +1 +2 1.06 13% 1.5 .19 16% .48 79% .37
Nov
26		 Cal St. Northridge C- C- F F F 26% 7% 67% B- F C+ A+ A C+ A+ A- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ 36% 24% 40% A A+ A- D- B- D F D+ F
1.06 57% 25% 25% -10 +1 0.83 29% 1.6 .47 15% .43 81% .35 0.87 70% 23% 14% -11 -1 0.78 26% 1.1 .28 15% .40 68% .27
Nov
28		 Sam Houston St. C A A+ D+ B- 22% 10% 67% C+ B- D B- D+ A- D- F F F C- D+ F F 30% 26% 44% A F F F F F A+ B A+
1.07 73% 60% 30% +2 0 1.06 25% 1.1 .28 14% .27 47% .13 1.48 59% 40% 56% +15 -1 1.30 43% 1.3 .57 9% .16 67% .10
Dec
3		 North Dakota B+ B+ F A+ A+ 30% 7% 63% C A B B B+ C B A+ A+ A+ D- C+ C+ D 34% 19% 47% B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ C+
1.30 69% 0% 48% +14 +1 1.33 39% 1.2 .48 20% .43 92% .40 0.84 63% 33% 32% -1 0 1.00 19% 0.0 .00 24% .38 55% .21
Dec
6		 South Dakota St. A- D+ A+ A A 27% 22% 51% D A- D B- D+ B A+ C- A+ D D- B F+ D 40% 34% 26% A C- A A- A F F D+ F
1.22 54% 64% 40% +9 -1 1.18 23% 1.1 .27 13% .49 72% .35 1.18 65% 35% 38% +4 -2 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 7% .52 73% .38
Dec
10		 Notre Dame C D+ F A+ B 33% 25% 41% C- B- D F F+ A+ F A+ D- D- F A- F F 29% 48% 23% A+ F+ D+ C+ C D+ A+ C- A+
1.04 53% 15% 48% +1 -1 1.02 20% 0.7 .14 10% .18 90% .16 1.27 80% 32% 67% +15 -4 1.23 35% 0.9 .32 14% .19 70% .13
Dec
21		 Cal Poly D- F F A+ D 19% 26% 54% F F+ F+ B D C- A+ C+ A+ B+ D+ F A+ A 33% 7% 60% C+ A A A+ A+ F+ F D+ F
1.00 36% 20% 42% -2 -2 0.93 24% 1.2 .28 17% .41 75% .30 0.96 61% 50% 21% -10 +1 0.85 23% 0.5 .11 17% .57 79% .45
Dec
23		 Cal St. Bakersfield F D+ F+ F F 31% 24% 45% D- F F+ D+ F+ C+ F A D- B- F+ F C- F 27% 33% 40% B- F A+ F+ B C+ A+ A+ A+
0.96 53% 33% 27% -7 -1 0.86 29% 1.0 .29 17% .28 80% .22 0.98 64% 47% 33% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.1 .26 20% .15 38% .06
Jan
3		 Eastern Washington B- F A+ A- B 31% 13% 56% C- B- B+ C B+ D A+ D A+ D B- B+ C B+ 32% 36% 32% A+ A- F A- F B+ F A- F
1.21 43% 83% 40% +6 0 1.16 40% 1.2 .47 19% .51 72% .37 1.17 53% 32% 35% -3 -2 0.91 57% 0.9 .52 22% .46 68% .31
Jan
8		 Montana D+ F D+ F F 52% 12% 36% A F A- C+ B+ A A+ D A+ D D+ F B D+ 33% 22% 45% B+ C- A F+ B+ D+ F F F
1.04 46% 33% 17% -16 +2 0.74 38% 1.1 .40 11% .47 66% .31 1.13 63% 64% 32% +6 -1 1.12 14% 1.3 .18 19% .39 86% .33
Jan
10		 Montana St. A+ A- C- A+ A+ 44% 14% 42% B- A+ C+ F F+ A+ D B- D F F+ F F F 46% 28% 26% D+ F D+ A- C+ B- F F+ F
1.35 65% 38% 44% +10 +1 1.24 32% 0.7 .22 7% .22 79% .17 1.30 65% 57% 54% +16 0 1.34 32% 0.9 .28 18% .37 81% .30
Jan
15		 Idaho St. F+ B B+ F F 38% 13% 49% C+ F F+ A+ A B- A+ F A+ C- A+ F F F 39% 25% 36% A- F+ A+ A+ A+ F+ F F+ F
1.02 65% 50% 14% -11 +1 0.82 23% 2.0 .46 13% .54 65% .35 1.14 41% 64% 50% +9 -1 1.18 23% 0.6 .13 13% .43 80% .35
Jan
17		 Weber St. F+ D+ A+ F F 44% 13% 44% B- F+ F A+ C+ F A+ F B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 16% 40% C+ A+ C- D+ D+ A+ F C- F
0.98 57% 50% 24% -6 +1 0.94 19% 1.9 .36 21% .43 65% .28 0.88 35% 14% 22% -21 +1 0.62 33% 1.1 .36 22% .66 72% .47
Jan
22		 Sacramento St. C+ A- F A+ A 37% 8% 56% C+ A D- F F C- D A+ C+ C- C+ A- A+ A 52% 31% 17% D A- F D+ F D- A- F C-
1.20 68% 0% 45% +10 +2 1.25 26% 0.9 .23 17% .27 88% .23 1.06 53% 28% 10% -12 0 0.78 35% 1.2 .42 13% .27 100% .27
Jan
24		 Portland St. D+ C F C- C 47% 11% 42% B+ C+ D+ F F+ C- A F+ B C B F F D- 66% 12% 22% F F+ A+ A+ A+ F B C+ B-
0.98 57% 20% 32% -4 +2 0.98 26% 0.7 .17 19% .46 68% .31 1.03 52% 50% 55% +4 +3 1.16 13% 0.0 .00 15% .28 69% .19
Jan
29		 Northern Colorado C F B- B D 38% 13% 50% C+ D+ D F F A A- A+ A+ D D+ A- F D 50% 19% 31% D D A+ D B+ D F B F
1.09 38% 43% 36% -6 +1 0.93 21% 0.8 .17 8% .40 86% .34 1.20 65% 30% 44% +7 +1 1.17 19% 1.2 .22 14% .51 70% .35
Jan
31		 Northern Arizona C+ A+ B- B- B+ 43% 13% 44% C+ B+ F D F B F B F A- B- F B B- 40% 27% 33% C+ B- B D- C C+ F+ A- D+
1.21 74% 43% 38% +10 +1 1.24 18% 1.0 .18 14% .16 78% .12 0.95 53% 46% 31% -1 -1 0.98 20% 1.1 .23 17% .33 61% .20
Feb
5		 Montana St. F D+ A+ F D+ 57% 16% 28% B+ C- F F F D- F A+ F B D+ A- A+ A 35% 44% 21% A+ A A+ F C F+ F F F
0.91 52% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.97 21% 0.6 .12 19% .15 89% .14 1.00 59% 33% 20% -6 -3 0.83 13% 2.3 .30 12% .47 87% .41
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Montana D- F+ F B+ C- 35% 18% 47% C+ C- D F F C- F F F B B F F D 31% 20% 49% B+ D+ A- F C+ C D- A+ B-
0.94 50% 20% 37% -4 0 0.95 25% 0.6 .16 17% .20 58% .12 1.01 53% 50% 42% +7 -1 1.14 17% 1.4 .23 21% .35 60% .21
Feb
12		 Weber St. D+ C+ F C D+ 42% 6% 52% B+ C F+ F F A+ D B D+ F D- B F F 44% 34% 22% A+ D- B F C- F C F F
1.12 64% 0% 33% 0 +2 1.06 22% 0.6 .14 8% .29 76% .22 1.29 64% 29% 55% +6 -1 1.12 28% 1.2 .34 9% .34 90% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.2 0.6 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.8 1.5 5.8 3rd
4th 0.2 7.3 7.0 0.6 15.1 4th
5th 0.0 4.2 13.6 1.5 19.4 5th
6th 1.1 13.1 5.3 0.0 19.6 6th
7th 0.4 8.4 11.6 0.6 21.0 7th
8th 0.2 4.5 9.6 1.9 16.2 8th
9th 0.4 1.4 0.1 2.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.1 0.3 10th
Total 0.8 6.4 19.3 30.9 27.4 12.6 2.6 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 2.6% 16.6% 16.6% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.2
10-8 12.6% 12.0% 12.0% 14.5 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 11.1
9-9 27.4% 8.3% 8.3% 14.9 0.3 1.8 0.1 25.1
8-10 30.9% 4.4% 4.4% 15.4 0.0 0.8 0.5 29.5
7-11 19.3% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.6 18.7
6-12 6.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 6.2
5-13 0.8% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 14.9 93.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.4 3.4 55.2 39.1 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 0.3%