Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.6 171
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 177
Pace 70.8 119
Improvement -0.3 199

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 140 B C- C D- C+
Defense C- 223 C+ C+ F D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 205 B 63% 68 +1.4 121
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 225 C 38% 161 -0.9 223
Three Pointers 44% 118 B- 36% 89 +3.2 75
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.2 161 B +3.4 71
1st FG Attempt B 1.09 73
Second Chance D+ 27.7% 260 C+ 1.06 125 C- 0.29 214
Turnovers C 17.1% 192
Freethrows F+ 0.23 353 C+ 74% 133 D- 0.17 348
Total Offense C +1.0 140

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 29 C 57% 158 -3.3 295
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 205 D+ 41% 286 -0.2 207
Three Pointers 36% 324 B+ 29% 29 +5.1 11
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.2 161 B- +3.4 71
1st FG Attempt 0.99 125 C+ +1.6 125
Second Chance B+ 26.0% 41 D- 1.15 326 C+ 0.30 139
Turnovers F 12.4% 360
Freethrows D+ 0.33 269 D- 76% 351 D 0.25 302
Total Defense C- -1.5 223

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 152 17.2 171
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 352 0.14 80
Improvement -0.5 #217 +0.2 #184

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13% 15% 11%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 96% 99% 92%
.500 or above in Conference 67% 84% 46%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round13% 15% 11%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 54.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 20 - 11 - 2
Quad 36 - 67 - 8
Quad 410 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 294 @Pepperdine W 88 - 81 OT 65% +5  93% 1 - 0 C+ +2 C- -1 C+ C F B- +3 B- B+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 126 St. Thomas L 72 - 73 40% +5  92% 1 - 1 C +1 D- -7 C- B+ F A- +8 A+ F C
 Sat, Nov 22 209 @Portland W 86 - 80 OT 47% +2  64% 2 - 1 B- +6 C +1 C C A- B +5 A- F D
 Sun, Nov 23 207 Cal St. Fullerton W 97 - 93 58% +4  85% 3 - 1 C +1 B+ +8 C B A+ D- -8 C+ B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 348 @Air Force W 71 - 53 80% +5  73% 4 - 1 B +9 B- +4 A F C+ B+ +8 A- C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 242 @Nebraska Omaha W 75 - 70 54% +1  56% 5 - 1 C+ +3 C +1 B- F C+ B- +2 B F+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 278 South Dakota W 89 - 87 OT 81% +2  67% 6 - 1 D+ -8 C +0 A D D D- -8 D C- C-
 Tue, Dec 16 16 @Texas Tech L 90 - 101 3% -7  0% 6 - 2 B +10 A+ +26 A+ A+ B+ F -16 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 247 Denver L 79 - 86 75% +2  58% 6 - 3 F+ -15 D- -8 D+ D C D -7 F+ A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 77 @Colorado W 86 - 81 15% +2  57% 7 - 3 A- +15 A- +10 A+ C+ D+ B +5 A+ B- F
 Thu, Jan 1 157 @Montana St. L 75 - 89 37% -6  8% 7 - 4 0 - 1 D- -11 C- -0 C- A D+ F+ -11 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 174 @Montana L 79 - 88 39% -9  0% 7 - 5 0 - 2 D+ -7 C- -1 F+ B- B+ D+ -5 B- A- F
 Thu, Jan 8 257 Idaho St. W 85 - 72 77% +11  98% 8 - 5 1 - 2 C+ +5 B+ +9 A+ D- B C- -3 B+ C+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 224 Weber St. L 71 - 76 71% -1  37% 8 - 6 1 - 3 D- -11 D- -6 F+ B- C D -5 C- B+ D-
 Thu, Jan 15 144 @Portland St. L 73 - 76 32% +1  58% 8 - 7 1 - 4 C +1 C +1 A+ F C- C -0 C F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 263 @Sacramento St. L 89 - 93 OT 58% +7  86% 8 - 8 1 - 5 D+ -7 C- -0 B F D+ D -6 D+ C- F
 Mon, Jan 19 157 Montana St. L 68 - 73 60% -4  25% 8 - 9 1 - 6 D -8 D+ -4 D A- D D+ -5 D A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 315 @Northern Arizona L 77 - 81 70% -2  18% 8 - 10 1 - 7 D -10 B- +5 A- B F F -16 F F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 202 Idaho W 91 - 83 68% +2  54% 9 - 10 2 - 7 C+ +2 B +6 A- D+ C+ D+ -4 B A- F
 Sat, Jan 31 221 Eastern Washington W 74 - 71 71% -1  34% 10 - 10 3 - 7 C- -3 D -4 D F A+ C+ +1 C+ C- C-
 Thu, Feb 5 224 @Weber St. W 88 - 74 49% +10  95% 11 - 10 4 - 7 B+ +14 A +13 A A B+ C+ +1 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 257 @Idaho St. W 69 - 61 57% +3  68% 12 - 10 5 - 7 B- +6 D -5 C+ B- F A +11 A+ C- F
 Thu, Feb 12 263 Sacramento St. W 95 - 79 78% +10  98% 13 - 10 6 - 7 B- +7 C+ +3 A+ F D+ B- +3 B A F
 Sat, Feb 14 144 Portland St. W 73 - 72 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 315 Northern Arizona W 81 - 69 86%
 Thu, Feb 26 221 @Eastern Washington L 79 - 80 49%
 Sat, Feb 28 202 @Idaho L 76 - 77 46%
 Mon, Mar 2 174 Montana W 79 - 76 61%
Totals 16 - 12 9 - 9 -1 F +1 F B C+ C+ -2 B- C+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B C B- B 38% 18% 44% C+ B D+ C+ C- C F+ C+ D- C- C D+ B+ B- 45% 20% 36% D+ C+ B+ D- C+ F D+ D- D
1.10 63% 38% 36% +3 0 1.09 28% 1.1 .29 17% .23 74% .17 1.11 57% 41% 29% -2 +1 0.99 26% 1.1 .30 12% .33 76% .18
Nov
15		 Pepperdine C- C- A+ C C+ 43% 13% 44% C C+ C+ D+ C F A+ B A+ B- B+ F A+ B 46% 22% 32% D B- C- A+ B+ F F A+ F+
1.07 57% 57% 33% +1 +1 1.07 34% 1.0 .34 24% .40 76% .30 0.98 48% 50% 25% -6 0 0.90 30% 0.6 .18 13% .42 67% .28
Nov
21		 St. Thomas D- C+ A+ F D+ 47% 9% 44% B+ C- D A+ B+ F A+ A- A+ A- A- A+ B+ A+ 48% 9% 43% D+ A+ F F+ F C B A B+
0.99 62% 50% 25% -3 +2 1.00 26% 1.7 .44 25% .38 81% .31 1.00 54% 20% 30% -6 +2 0.94 30% 1.1 .32 15% .26 63% .16
Nov
22		 Portland C C A+ F C- 43% 15% 43% B- C F A+ C A- D A+ C+ B C D A+ A+ 48% 12% 40% F+ A- C F F D B+ C- B
1.07 58% 56% 27% -2 +1 1.00 17% 2.0 .34 14% .26 89% .23 0.99 59% 43% 17% -10 +2 0.87 30% 1.6 .48 17% .24 75% .18
Nov
23		 Cal St. Fullerton B+ B+ C- D+ C 35% 15% 51% C C D A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ D- C B+ B- B- 55% 16% 30% F C+ B C- B- F F C+ F+
1.20 68% 38% 32% +2 0 1.07 24% 1.5 .36 11% .56 85% .47 1.15 57% 30% 32% -3 +2 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 5% .43 70% .30
Nov
26		 Air Force B- A- A A A 35% 16% 49% C+ A F C- F C+ F F F B+ F A+ A+ B 31% 38% 31% A+ A- B+ F C- F B- A- B
1.16 71% 50% 42% +12 0 1.27 15% 1.0 .15 15% .15 63% .10 0.87 87% 22% 13% -7 -3 0.83 18% 1.5 .27 16% .27 57% .16
Dec
3		 Nebraska Omaha C F A+ A C+ 43% 8% 49% B+ B- C- F F C+ D A+ C B- A- A C A- 48% 15% 38% F B B F F+ D- F B D-
1.13 50% 75% 40% +4 +2 1.14 29% 0.5 .14 14% .26 87% .23 1.06 48% 29% 33% -7 +1 0.92 23% 1.6 .37 14% .38 68% .26
Dec
6		 South Dakota C A B- A+ A+ 47% 17% 36% D+ A F A+ D D A+ F B- D- C- F A+ D 58% 23% 19% D D C+ D- C- C- F+ F F
1.17 72% 44% 42% +12 +1 1.28 21% 1.7 .34 18% .40 56% .22 1.14 58% 58% 20% +1 +1 1.06 27% 1.1 .30 17% .43 93% .39
Dec
16		 Texas Tech A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 34% 23% 43% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ F F F F F F F F 28% 22% 50% B- F A+ F A+ F F F+ F
1.31 74% 46% 42% +12 -1 1.25 38% 1.4 .53 15% .14 50% .07 1.47 80% 75% 44% +22 -1 1.44 15% 1.5 .23 4% .37 79% .29
Dec
20		 Denver D- A+ F F D 44% 15% 41% C+ D+ C+ F D C F F F D D A+ F D- 54% 20% 26% F F+ A+ F A+ D+ D+ F F+
1.10 81% 22% 21% 0 +1 1.03 36% 0.9 .33 13% .16 40% .06 1.20 62% 27% 50% +6 +1 1.17 11% 1.7 .19 13% .32 90% .29
Dec
28		 Colorado A- D A+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 38% B- A+ D+ A- C+ D+ C- B+ C B A- A- C+ A+ 38% 29% 32% A- A+ C+ B B- F A+ F B+
1.18 50% 55% 50% +9 0 1.21 24% 1.3 .31 18% .28 76% .22 1.11 52% 32% 33% -4 -1 0.91 32% 0.9 .28 7% .22 93% .21
Jan
1		 Montana St. C- C F C C- 40% 19% 40% C- C- C+ A+ A D+ D A+ C F+ D+ F A- C- 39% 18% 43% F+ D+ A F F F C- B- C-
1.04 57% 20% 33% -4 0 0.94 32% 1.5 .47 18% .22 92% .20 1.24 59% 70% 29% +3 0 1.09 22% 2.4 .53 10% .28 72% .20
Jan
3		 Montana C- C- F D- D- 23% 30% 48% F F+ C B B- B+ B- A- B D+ F A B+ B- 35% 20% 45% B- B- A- B- A- F F F F
1.03 57% 28% 28% -8 -2 0.82 30% 1.1 .35 13% .32 76% .24 1.15 72% 30% 30% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.0 .16 14% .58 92% .53
Jan
8		 Idaho St. B+ A A+ A+ A+ 27% 10% 63% C+ A+ D- D D- B D- D- F+ C- D- C+ A+ A 53% 17% 30% D B+ C B- C+ D F C- F
1.31 71% 60% 42% +14 +1 1.31 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 73% .19 1.11 64% 38% 14% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .31 15% .42 74% .31
Jan
10		 Weber St. D- B- F+ F F 55% 21% 23% C+ F+ A F B- C B- A B+ D C+ F B+ B- 73% 4% 22% F C- C A B+ D- F C+ F
1.07 65% 30% 9% -6 +1 0.91 41% 0.9 .38 17% .36 80% .29 1.14 55% 50% 30% -3 +5 1.04 31% 0.8 .25 14% .57 70% .40
Jan
15		 Portland St. C A+ F A+ A+ 26% 16% 58% D+ A+ F F F C- D- F+ F+ C C- F A C- 43% 26% 32% B+ C F+ F F A- F C- F
1.01 77% 25% 41% +9 0 1.20 13% 0.0 .00 19% .33 68% .22 1.05 60% 50% 27% 0 0 1.02 37% 1.2 .43 24% .51 71% .36
Jan
17		 Sacramento St. C- A+ C- D- B+ 41% 16% 43% C- B F D- F D+ F A+ F+ D F C B- D 26% 27% 47% B- D+ D+ C C- F F B F
1.11 77% 40% 30% +5 +1 1.14 24% 1.0 .24 17% .20 85% .17 1.16 69% 35% 31% 0 -2 0.98 30% 1.2 .34 10% .47 74% .35
Jan
19		 Montana St. D+ F+ D- C D- 51% 16% 33% B- D A+ C- A- D F F F D+ B+ C+ F C- 40% 10% 50% F D A+ A A+ F F D+ F
1.04 46% 33% 33% -7 +1 0.91 44% 1.0 .44 18% .06 33% .02 1.11 48% 40% 42% +2 +2 1.10 15% 0.8 .12 11% .36 76% .27
Jan
24		 Northern Arizona B- B+ B- A+ A+ 26% 26% 48% F A- A+ F+ B F F A+ F F F D+ F F 33% 33% 33% A F A- F F D- F F+ F
1.24 67% 42% 50% +15 -2 1.28 47% 0.9 .43 24% .15 86% .13 1.30 73% 40% 53% +15 -2 1.29 17% 2.3 .39 13% .35 74% .26
Jan
29		 Idaho B B F A+ B+ 50% 19% 31% A- A- D- B D+ C+ A+ D A+ D+ A+ D- C- B+ 38% 13% 50% D+ B A- A- A- F F F F
1.20 65% 30% 44% +7 +1 1.17 19% 1.2 .22 14% .51 70% .35 1.09 38% 43% 36% -6 +1 0.93 21% 0.8 .17 8% .40 86% .34
Jan
31		 Eastern Washington D C+ A+ F D- 38% 9% 54% C+ D C- F F A+ F A- F C+ B B D+ B 52% 17% 31% F C+ A+ F C- C- A+ F A-
1.10 62% 60% 27% -2 +1 1.00 31% 0.8 .24 6% .17 82% .14 1.05 52% 33% 38% -2 +1 1.00 21% 1.7 .36 18% .18 90% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Weber St. A A- A+ A A+ 44% 15% 41% C+ A D- A+ A B+ F D+ F C+ B- F A+ A- 54% 15% 31% D+ B+ C+ A+ A+ F D- F F
1.30 71% 50% 41% +12 +1 1.28 24% 2.0 .48 13% .17 70% .12 1.10 54% 75% 13% -7 +2 0.92 30% 0.5 .15 9% .39 83% .32
Feb
7		 Idaho St. D B C- B- C+ 41% 24% 35% D+ C+ F+ A+ B- F F A+ F A A+ A+ B A+ 44% 19% 37% C A+ A+ F C- F B B+ B+
1.07 65% 42% 35% +4 0 1.10 23% 1.7 .38 20% .15 88% .14 0.94 39% 20% 32% -13 +1 0.77 24% 1.4 .34 11% .28 69% .19
Feb
12		 Sacramento St. C+ A+ A- B A+ 45% 6% 48% B A+ F F F D+ F B F B- A D A A- 39% 17% 44% F B A+ C A F F F+ F
1.20 79% 50% 37% +12 +2 1.31 24% 0.9 .21 18% .20 77% .15 0.99 43% 40% 27% -10 +1 0.83 17% 1.1 .20 10% .43 84% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.7 2.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.8 8.1 4.5 13.3 3rd
4th 0.2 9.8 13.7 1.1 24.7 4th
5th 0.1 4.4 17.1 2.5 24.1 5th
6th 0.8 11.0 6.1 0.1 18.0 6th
7th 0.2 4.6 7.5 0.4 12.6 7th
8th 0.7 3.0 0.7 4.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.0 8.5 23.8 34.1 25.1 7.6 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 7.6% 20.0% 20.0% 13.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 6.1
10-8 25.1% 18.1% 18.1% 13.7 0.1 1.6 2.4 0.5 20.5
9-9 34.1% 14.1% 14.1% 14.1 0.0 0.7 2.8 1.2 0.1 29.3
8-10 23.8% 8.2% 8.2% 14.6 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.1 21.8
7-11 8.5% 6.2% 6.2% 15.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 8.0
6-12 1.0% 5.3% 5.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.9
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 14.0 86.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 13.0 19.3 61.3 19.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2%
Lose Out 0.4%