Preseason Rankings
Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#190
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.8#104
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#149
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#258
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.5% 20.4% 12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 13.8 14.5
.500 or above 63.3% 76.3% 51.2%
.500 or above in Conference 72.3% 79.7% 65.5%
Conference Champion 21.9% 28.5% 15.7%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 3.1% 7.2%
First Four1.5% 1.3% 1.7%
First Round16.5% 20.5% 12.7%
Second Round0.9% 1.3% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Away) - 48.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 54 - 8
Quad 413 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2025 239   @ Pepperdine L 75-76 48%    
  Nov 21, 2025 148   St. Thomas L 75-77 42%    
  Nov 22, 2025 262   @ Portland W 77-76 51%    
  Nov 23, 2025 337   Cal St. Fullerton W 77-68 78%    
  Nov 26, 2025 280   @ Air Force W 70-68 56%    
  Dec 03, 2025 182   @ Nebraska Omaha L 74-77 39%    
  Dec 06, 2025 294   South Dakota W 89-81 77%    
  Dec 16, 2025 12   @ Texas Tech L 62-85 3%    
  Dec 20, 2025 321   Denver W 78-67 81%    
  Dec 28, 2025 82   @ Colorado L 67-79 16%    
  Jan 01, 2026 217   @ Montana St. L 71-73 45%    
  Jan 03, 2026 189   @ Montana L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 08, 2026 282   Idaho St. W 75-67 75%    
  Jan 10, 2026 279   Weber St. W 75-68 74%    
  Jan 15, 2026 213   @ Portland St. L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 17, 2026 272   @ Sacramento St. W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 19, 2026 217   Montana St. W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 24, 2026 263   @ Northern Arizona W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 29, 2026 235   Idaho W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 31, 2026 247   Eastern Washington W 77-71 68%    
  Feb 05, 2026 279   @ Weber St. W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 07, 2026 282   @ Idaho St. W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 12, 2026 272   Sacramento St. W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 14, 2026 213   Portland St. W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 21, 2026 263   Northern Arizona W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 26, 2026 247   @ Eastern Washington L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 28, 2026 235   @ Idaho L 74-75 48%    
  Mar 02, 2026 189   Montana W 76-73 59%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.3 5.3 5.4 3.9 2.1 0.6 21.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.7 5.1 2.7 0.7 0.1 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.7 5.2 3.8 1.3 0.1 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.7 3.0 0.7 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 3.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.3 3.3 4.9 6.8 8.4 9.6 10.8 11.0 10.5 9.7 8.2 6.1 4.0 2.1 0.6 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.1    2.1 0.0
16-2 97.6% 3.9    3.6 0.3
15-3 89.1% 5.4    4.4 1.0 0.0
14-4 65.1% 5.3    3.4 1.7 0.2
13-5 33.9% 3.3    1.4 1.3 0.5 0.0
12-6 11.7% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.9% 21.9 15.6 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 67.6% 67.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 2.1% 58.1% 58.1% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9
16-2 4.0% 46.6% 46.6% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1
15-3 6.1% 39.7% 39.7% 13.4 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.7
14-4 8.2% 31.6% 31.6% 13.9 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 5.6
13-5 9.7% 25.1% 25.1% 14.9 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 7.2
12-6 10.5% 17.6% 17.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 8.6
11-7 11.0% 14.4% 14.4% 16.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 9.4
10-8 10.8% 9.4% 9.4% 17.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 9.8
9-9 9.6% 6.9% 6.9% 17.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 8.9
8-10 8.4% 3.6% 3.6% 18.0 0.1 0.3 8.1
7-11 6.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.7
6-12 4.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.8
5-13 3.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.2
4-14 2.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.3
3-15 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.5% 16.5% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.4 4.2 3.9 3.2 83.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.0 50.6 49.4
Lose Out 0.0%