Montana
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -2.4 206
Results Rating -1.9 193
Consistency 0.16 204
Pace 72.0 88
Improvement -3.1 295

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 243 B- D- F+ C C+
Defense C 158 C C+ D+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 203 C+ 60% 110 +0.4 164
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 219 C 38% 161 -0.8 226
Three Pointers 44% 120 B 37% 60 +3.5 71
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 158 B- +2.7 91
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 85
Second Chance F+ 21.6% 354 C+ 1.06 132 D- 0.23 342
Opponents' Steals F+ 12.0% 354
Other Turnovers D+ 8.1% 291
Turnovers F+ 20.1% 342
Freethrows C- 0.29 224 B 76% 53 C 0.22 174
Total Offense C- -2.7 243

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 50% 141 C- 11.7% 226
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 238 D- 8.2% 333
Three Pointers B- 88% 84 B+ 0.3% 38
Total B- 59% 97 C- 6.0% 234


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 156 D+ 62% 279 +1.9 245
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 96 C 38% 165 +0.8 250
Three Pointers 38% 274 B 31% 51 -3.3 45
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 124 C -0.4 160
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 151
Second Chance C+ 29.4% 148 C+ 1.01 143 C+ 0.30 142
Turnovers from Steals D 7.8% 302
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 166
Turnovers D+ 15.1% 276
Freethrows C+ 0.29 148 B- 71% 87 C+ 0.20 115
Total Defense C +0.3 158

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 257 D- 6.3% 344
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 168 C- 3.8% 233
Three Pointers B- 80% 70 D+ 0.5% 263
Total C+ 54% 149 D 3.5% 331

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.1 142 16.5 42
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 260 0.19 264
Consistency 0.14 292 0.09 13
Improvement -4.2 342 +1.1 130

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 214 200 178
Results Rating Rank 217 194 138
Conference Record 10 - 8 10 - 8 10 - 8
Conference Finish 4 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10% 19% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 n/a
.500 or above 24% 47% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round10% 19% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 35 - 76 - 11
Quad 48 - 414 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 60 @Stanford L 68 - 91 9% -11  0% 0 - 1 D -11 D- -6 C- B- F C- -3 B- B F
 Tue, Nov 11 103 @UNLV W 102 - 93 18% +6  82% 1 - 1 A- +16 A +14 A+ B- B- C+ +1 C- A- F+
 Fri, Nov 14 226 Cal Poly W 90 - 82 66% +7  95% 2 - 1 C +1 C- -2 D C C+ B- +2 B- C D-
 Tue, Nov 18 33 @Texas A&M L 81 - 86 4% -10  1% 2 - 2 B+ +12 A +13 A+ F+ C- C -1 F A+ C
 Sun, Nov 23 245 Lamar L 63 - 68 69% -0  37% 2 - 3 D- -13 F -16 F F F B +4 A+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 171 Oakland L 87 - 95 56% -4  16% 2 - 4 D- -12 D+ -3 C+ B+ F+ F+ -8 F A D+
 Wed, Dec 3 132 North Dakota St. L 72 - 81 45% -3  17% 2 - 5 D -10 D -5 C+ D D+ D -6 A- F D
 Sat, Dec 6 300 @North Dakota W 79 - 75 61% -1  40% 3 - 5 C -1 C- -1 B- B+ F C -1 B F C-
 Sat, Dec 20 13 @Louisville L 54 - 94 2% -17  0% 3 - 6 F -18 F -15 F+ F F C -1 B F B+
 Thu, Jan 1 317 Northern Arizona W 78 - 64 83% +4  70% 4 - 6 1 - 0 C +1 C- -1 B+ F F+ B- +3 B D- B+
 Sat, Jan 3 149 Northern Colorado W 88 - 79 50% +9  99% 5 - 6 2 - 0 B- +7 C+ +3 B- F D B- +3 A+ D- F+
 Thu, Jan 8 181 @Idaho W 79 - 73 35% +9  89% 6 - 6 3 - 0 B- +8 B- +4 B F+ F+ B +4 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 173 @Eastern Washington L 65 - 66 33% +2  68% 6 - 7 3 - 1 C +1 D -5 D F+ D B+ +6 C+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 146 @Montana St. L 67 - 76 27% -0  48% 6 - 8 3 - 2 D+ -5 D- -7 C+ F F B- +2 B C+ D+
 Mon, Jan 19 317 @Northern Arizona W 98 - 72 66% +12  85% 7 - 8 4 - 2 A +19 A+ +30 A+ A+ A D- -7 F A F
 Thu, Jan 22 211 Weber St. W 81 - 65 63% +2  46% 8 - 8 5 - 2 B +10 B +7 A+ B+ F B +4 D- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 266 Idaho St. W 69 - 60 73% +8  97% 9 - 8 6 - 2 C +0 F -10 C F D+ A +11 A+ D+ B
 Thu, Jan 29 153 @Portland St. W 64 - 60 29% +5  89% 10 - 8 7 - 2 B- +7 D+ -4 B+ F F A+ +11 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 272 @Sacramento St. L 79 - 86 53% -8  9% 10 - 9 7 - 3 D -10 C- -2 D A+ F D- -8 F A+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 173 Eastern Washington L 74 - 82 56% +0  53% 10 - 10 7 - 4 D- -12 D- -7 B F F D -5 D- B C
 Sat, Feb 7 181 Idaho W 73 - 68 58% -2  39% 11 - 10 8 - 4 C +1 D- -7 B+ D+ F A- +7 B A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 14 146 Montana St. L 71 - 82 48% -3  30% 11 - 11 8 - 5 D- -13 C- -1 B- F C+ F -13 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 266 @Idaho St. L 69 - 73 52% +2  59% 11 - 12 8 - 6 D+ -7 D- -8 C+ F F C+ +1 D A+ C
 Sat, Feb 21 211 @Weber St. L 72 - 92 40% -14  0% 11 - 13 8 - 7 F -20 D+ -3 C- F C+ F -17 F F C
 Thu, Feb 26 272 Sacramento St. W 81 - 73 74% +8  96% 12 - 13 9 - 7 C -1 D+ -3 B+ F D+ C+ +1 B+ C F+
 Sat, Feb 28 153 Portland St. W 74 - 68 51% +7  89% 13 - 13 10 - 7 C+ +3 C +0 A- B D+ B- +3 A- D+ C+
 Mon, Mar 2 149 @Northern Colorado L 57 - 85 28% -10  7% 13 - 14 10 - 8 F -24 F -20 D- F F D+ -3 D A F
 Mon, Mar 9 149 Northern Colorado L 75 - 78 39%
Totals 13 - 15 10 - 8 -2 C- -3 B B- C+ C +0 B B C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ C B B- 38% 34% 44% C+ B- F+ C+ D- F+ C- B C C D+ C B C 39% 23% 38% C+ C C+ C+ C+ D+ C+ B- C+
1.05 60% 38% 37% +3 0 1.08 22% 1.1 .23 20% .29 76% .22 1.08 62% 38% 31% 0 0 1.01 29% 1.0 .30 15% .29 71% .21
Nov
8		 Stanford D- D A+ F D+ 43% 17% 40% B+ C- F A+ B- F D+ A+ B C- B F C B 52% 12% 35% C- B- C+ B+ B F A+ A+ A+
0.91 50% 50% 26% -6 +1 0.91 18% 1.8 .32 27% .31 94% .29 1.22 53% 50% 35% -1 +2 1.05 34% 0.9 .30 7% .22 60% .13
Nov
11		 UNLV A B A+ A A+ 55% 18% 27% B+ A+ B- C B- B- B- A+ A+ C+ F F A+ C 48% 13% 39% F+ C- B+ A A- F+ D+ A- C+
1.26 63% 60% 40% +9 +1 1.24 33% 1.1 .37 16% .40 89% .35 1.15 70% 63% 25% +4 +2 1.13 28% 0.7 .21 12% .38 63% .24
Nov
14		 Cal Poly C- B+ F F D- 36% 14% 50% C+ D F A+ C C+ A+ A- A+ B- B A+ C B+ 59% 10% 31% D- B- C+ C C D- C- A C+
1.11 67% 25% 28% -4 +1 0.97 23% 1.4 .33 15% .42 79% .33 1.01 53% 17% 33% -6 +3 0.97 29% 1.0 .29 17% .31 71% .22
Nov
18		 Texas A&M A B- A+ A+ A+ 30% 12% 58% B A+ F A+ F+ C- D- F F C F F B- F 43% 14% 43% B F A+ A+ A+ C F B- F
1.16 60% 67% 52% +19 +1 1.42 12% 1.3 .15 20% .23 54% .13 1.23 81% 71% 33% +14 +1 1.33 23% 0.0 .00 14% .48 72% .35
Nov
23		 Lamar F D- F D- F 38% 18% 44% C+ F D+ F F F A+ D- A+ B A+ B F A 33% 50% 17% A+ A+ D+ F F C+ A A+ A+
0.87 53% 13% 30% -9 0 0.84 27% 0.5 .12 22% .57 66% .37 0.94 26% 34% 40% -11 -4 0.72 36% 1.3 .47 18% .13 50% .07
Nov
25		 Oakland D+ C- C+ A C 47% 16% 36% B+ C+ D+ A+ B+ F+ A+ F B F+ F A+ F F 49% 25% 26% C F D- A+ A D+ F C F
1.12 58% 44% 40% +4 +1 1.13 31% 1.4 .42 19% .35 59% .21 1.22 77% 23% 43% +9 0 1.21 35% 0.6 .22 13% .46 74% .34
Dec
3		 North Dakota St. D C+ A+ B- B+ 22% 35% 43% F C+ D+ F+ D D+ D+ F D- D C- F A+ A- 28% 34% 38% A A- D- F F D F F F
1.03 64% 56% 36% +9 -3 1.14 26% 0.8 .19 20% .23 62% .14 1.16 60% 56% 15% -4 -2 0.89 36% 1.5 .53 14% .37 91% .33
Dec
6		 North Dakota C- D C+ A+ B- 40% 11% 49% C B- C- A+ B+ F A F C+ C F+ B A+ B- 42% 25% 33% A- B F D- F C- B- F C-
1.15 56% 40% 45% +8 +1 1.20 33% 1.4 .48 25% .46 63% .29 1.09 64% 31% 18% -8 0 0.87 40% 1.2 .48 14% .31 78% .24
Dec
20		 Louisville F C- F F F+ 27% 27% 47% C F+ F F F F C- A+ B C F A+ A+ B+ 42% 5% 53% C- B D- F F B+ C B C+
0.72 54% 15% 26% -13 -2 0.73 11% 0.8 .08 25% .27 87% .23 1.26 83% 0% 28% +3 +2 1.13 40% 1.5 .60 19% .31 74% .23
Jan
1		 Northern Arizona C- A+ F A+ A- 39% 14% 47% C B+ F D- F F+ D+ A+ C+ B- B+ C- C+ B 34% 28% 38% B B F+ D+ D- B+ D+ F+ D
1.19 74% 29% 43% +11 +1 1.27 20% 1.0 .20 20% .27 86% .23 0.98 50% 38% 33% -3 -1 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 20% .29 73% .21
Jan
3		 Northern Colorado C+ A+ F C- B 35% 20% 45% D+ B- F D F D A+ A+ A+ B- B- A A A+ 23% 30% 48% A+ A+ D D D- F+ F C- F
1.15 72% 30% 30% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.0 .16 14% .58 92% .53 1.03 57% 28% 28% -8 -2 0.82 30% 1.1 .35 13% .32 76% .24
Jan
8		 Idaho B- B- A+ D+ B+ 33% 22% 45% C+ B F A- F+ F+ B- A+ A B A- C+ A+ A+ 52% 12% 36% F A+ F D+ F F F A- F
1.13 63% 64% 32% +6 -1 1.12 14% 1.3 .18 19% .39 86% .33 1.04 46% 33% 17% -16 +2 0.74 38% 1.1 .40 11% .47 66% .31
Jan
10		 Eastern Washington D B F F D- 61% 15% 24% B+ D D+ F F+ D B- A B+ B+ A F D- B- 42% 23% 35% C C+ A+ F B+ F A+ F A+
1.02 64% 29% 18% -3 +2 1.00 30% 0.9 .27 19% .35 83% .29 1.04 45% 50% 39% 0 0 1.02 17% 1.6 .28 14% .13 100% .13
Jan
17		 Montana St. D- F A+ B C- 58% 4% 38% A+ C+ F D F F C- A+ B B- B+ B+ F B- 30% 38% 32% A B C B- C+ D+ F D F
0.94 45% 100% 37% -4 +4 1.02 10% 1.0 .10 21% .25 93% .23 1.07 50% 35% 41% 0 -3 0.96 27% 1.0 .27 14% .36 77% .28
Jan
19		 Northern Arizona A+ A A+ A+ A+ 45% 10% 45% B- A+ C A+ A+ A C A B- D- F A+ C- F 40% 4% 56% F F B A+ A F D+ B C-
1.59 73% 60% 59% +26 +2 1.57 33% 2.0 .67 11% .29 81% .24 1.17 75% 0% 36% +7 +2 1.20 20% 0.7 .13 11% .29 63% .18
Jan
22		 Weber St. B A+ F A+ A+ 45% 13% 43% B- A+ D+ A+ B+ F F A- F B F B+ B D- 51% 15% 34% D+ D- A A+ A+ C+ D A+ C+
1.25 81% 17% 50% +18 +1 1.40 25% 1.6 .40 23% .20 80% .16 1.01 71% 29% 31% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.4 .10 17% .37 60% .22
Jan
24		 Idaho St. F B- C D+ C- 46% 13% 41% B C F F F D+ F A+ F A A+ A B+ A+ 31% 21% 48% A- A+ B+ F D+ B B- A B+
1.03 64% 43% 32% +2 +2 1.09 16% 0.4 .06 16% .16 89% .14 0.89 40% 30% 30% -10 -1 0.81 28% 1.3 .35 19% .28 67% .18
Jan
29		 Portland St. D+ A+ B F A- 44% 29% 27% D+ B+ F F F F A+ A- A+ A+ B C A+ A+ 40% 20% 40% C+ A+ C D- D+ A+ F C- F
0.93 78% 42% 18% +3 -1 1.07 20% 0.4 .08 25% .48 80% .39 0.88 50% 38% 19% -13 0 0.78 30% 1.1 .33 25% .58 70% .41
Jan
31		 Sacramento St. C- F A- A- F+ 59% 4% 37% A D C+ A+ A+ F B+ B A- D- F A+ F F 36% 21% 43% D F B- A+ A+ D+ D A- C-
1.09 45% 50% 39% -5 +4 1.00 35% 1.6 .56 22% .37 76% .28 1.19 79% 9% 48% +10 0 1.23 24% 0.5 .12 14% .39 71% .27
Feb
5		 Eastern Washington D- C+ A+ B B+ 38% 21% 40% D B D- F F F C C+ C D C+ F F F+ 33% 24% 43% B D- C+ B+ B C F A+ D
1.05 61% 60% 37% +8 0 1.17 27% 0.8 .20 24% .32 76% .24 1.16 56% 50% 43% +8 -1 1.16 29% 1.0 .29 18% .42 63% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Idaho D- D+ A A+ B+ 31% 20% 49% C+ B+ F A+ D+ F C F F+ A- B A+ D+ B 35% 18% 47% C+ B B A+ A+ C+ A A+ A+
1.01 53% 50% 42% +7 -1 1.14 17% 1.4 .23 21% .35 60% .21 0.94 50% 20% 37% -4 0 0.95 25% 0.6 .16 17% .20 58% .12
Feb
14		 Montana St. C- A D- C- B- 37% 12% 51% C+ B- F D F C+ B A+ A F F C+ F F 21% 43% 36% A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F F A- D-
1.08 67% 33% 32% +1 +1 1.06 20% 1.0 .20 15% .30 88% .27 1.24 82% 39% 47% +13 -4 1.19 18% 0.8 .15 8% .34 67% .23
Feb
19		 Idaho St. D- F+ C- A+ B 28% 28% 44% F C+ F F F F A D- B+ C+ B F F+ D 49% 16% 35% D D B- A+ A+ C C F D+
1.02 50% 42% 47% +8 -2 1.14 18% 0.8 .14 21% .41 73% .30 1.08 52% 63% 39% +3 +1 1.12 29% 0.6 .18 18% .30 82% .25
Feb
21		 Weber St. D+ B- D C C- 40% 18% 42% C C- D- F F C+ D+ A C+ F F F F F 48% 19% 33% C+ F F+ F F C D F F
1.07 65% 33% 33% +1 0 1.06 22% 0.9 .19 15% .30 82% .24 1.36 70% 44% 50% +15 +1 1.33 38% 1.2 .46 16% .37 81% .30
Feb
26		 Sacramento St. D+ A+ F+ B A- 33% 12% 55% D+ B+ F A+ F D+ C+ A B C+ C+ A+ A A 48% 19% 33% F B+ C D+ C F+ A- C B+
1.12 75% 33% 37% +7 +1 1.18 14% 1.8 .24 18% .34 80% .27 1.01 54% 9% 26% -11 +1 0.81 26% 1.2 .30 11% .28 78% .22
Feb
28		 Portland St. C C+ B- A A 36% 21% 43% C- A- F A+ B D+ C+ F D B- B F A+ B+ 22% 18% 60% A- A- D+ C- D+ C+ B A+ B+
1.03 59% 40% 40% +4 0 1.11 19% 1.8 .35 20% .36 62% .23 0.95 50% 60% 24% -7 -1 0.87 33% 1.0 .33 20% .26 60% .16
Mar
2		 Northern Colorado F D D+ F D- 44% 19% 37% C- D- F F F F F F F D+ D F D+ D 41% 13% 47% D D A+ B- A F A D- A-
0.78 52% 36% 24% -9 +1 0.86 10% 0.5 .05 18% .17 60% .10 1.16 65% 50% 37% +6 +1 1.17 17% 1.0 .17 10% .15 80% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 100.0% 9.9% 9.9% 15.0 0.7 8.5 0.7 90.1
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 15.0 90.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.9% 100.0% 15.0 7.2 86.0 6.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 14.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 27.8%
Lose Out 47.8%