Montana
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#206
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#237
Pace72.9#100
Improvement-3.2#348

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#160
First Shot+2.6#104
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#316
Layup/Dunks-0.4#192
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#204
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#103
Freethrows+0.8#137
Improvement-1.3#288

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#263
First Shot-2.4#248
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#228
Layups/Dunks-7.5#360
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#258
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#22
Freethrows+0.1#170
Improvement-1.9#316
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 13.5% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 13.9 14.9
.500 or above 31.9% 62.0% 31.5%
.500 or above in Conference 53.6% 72.3% 53.3%
Conference Champion 9.2% 13.0% 9.2%
Last Place in Conference 11.4% 3.7% 11.5%
First Four1.5% 0.3% 1.6%
First Round7.4% 13.5% 7.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 1.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 74 - 11
Quad 49 - 513 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 85 @Stanford L 68-91 13%     0 - 1 -13.6 -4.1 -8.0
  Tue, Nov 11 132 @UNLV W 102-93 23%     1 - 1 +13.9 +16.3 -3.7
  Fri, Nov 14 252 Cal Poly W 90-82 70%     2 - 1 -0.1 +0.9 -2.1
  Tue, Nov 18 39 @Texas A&M L 81-86 6%     2 - 2 +10.0 +14.3 -4.3
  Sun, Nov 23 214 Lamar L 63-68 64%     2 - 3 -11.5 -11.3 +0.0
  Tue, Nov 25 146 Oakland L 87-95 48%     2 - 4 -10.1 -0.1 -9.2
  Wed, Dec 3 155 North Dakota St. L 72-81 52%     2 - 5 -12.2 -0.7 -11.6
  Sat, Dec 6 337 @North Dakota W 79-75 69%     3 - 5 -3.8 +4.9 -8.6
  Sat, Dec 20 13 @Louisville L 71-95 1%    
  Thu, Jan 1 251 Northern Arizona W 78-73 69%    
  Sat, Jan 3 157 Northern Colorado W 79-78 52%    
  Thu, Jan 8 173 @Idaho L 75-80 33%    
  Sat, Jan 10 234 @Eastern Washington L 80-82 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 164 @Montana St. L 72-77 32%    
  Mon, Jan 19 251 @Northern Arizona L 75-76 48%    
  Thu, Jan 22 195 Weber St. W 80-78 59%    
  Sat, Jan 24 168 Idaho St. W 73-72 54%    
  Thu, Jan 29 171 @Portland St. L 72-77 34%    
  Sat, Jan 31 278 @Sacramento St. W 81-80 51%    
  Thu, Feb 5 234 Eastern Washington W 83-79 66%    
  Sat, Feb 7 173 Idaho W 78-77 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 164 Montana St. W 75-74 53%    
  Thu, Feb 19 168 @Idaho St. L 70-75 33%    
  Sat, Feb 21 195 @Weber St. L 77-81 37%    
  Thu, Feb 26 278 Sacramento St. W 83-77 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 171 Portland St. W 75-74 55%    
  Mon, Mar 2 157 @Northern Colorado L 76-81 32%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.6 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 9.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.7 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.2 4.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 5.4 2.2 0.2 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.5 6.2 2.5 0.2 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.8 3.2 0.3 11.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.0 3.8 0.5 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.4 4.2 3.8 0.7 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.2 2.8 0.7 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.1 1.6 0.5 0.0 6.8 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.8 6.2 9.1 11.2 13.0 13.3 12.0 10.5 7.6 5.0 3.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 99.5% 0.6    0.6 0.0
15-3 93.8% 1.3    1.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 80.1% 2.4    1.7 0.6 0.0
13-5 51.8% 2.6    1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0
12-6 23.0% 1.8    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 4.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 5.4 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 44.1% 44.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.6% 35.7% 35.7% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.3% 31.3% 31.3% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.9
14-4 3.0% 25.3% 25.3% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.2
13-5 5.0% 19.7% 19.7% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 4.0
12-6 7.6% 15.9% 15.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 6.4
11-7 10.5% 12.2% 12.2% 15.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 9.2
10-8 12.0% 9.4% 9.4% 15.2 0.0 0.8 0.3 10.9
9-9 13.3% 6.8% 6.8% 15.9 0.1 0.8 12.4
8-10 13.0% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5 12.5
7-11 11.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 11.0
6-12 9.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 8.9
5-13 6.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.2
4-14 3.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.8
3-15 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.0
2-16 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.9 2.4 92.0 0.0%