Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#251
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#244
Pace67.6#235
Improvement-0.1#199

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#242
First Shot-3.1#263
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#154
Layup/Dunks+3.1#78
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#130
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#271
Freethrows-4.0#343
Improvement-0.6#226

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#243
First Shot-3.0#276
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#144
Layups/Dunks-2.2#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#106
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#296
Freethrows+1.2#116
Improvement+0.5#146
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 6.6% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 17.1% 39.3% 15.7%
.500 or above in Conference 33.1% 49.8% 32.1%
Conference Champion 4.1% 7.0% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 24.8% 15.4% 25.3%
First Four1.2% 0.8% 1.2%
First Round3.4% 6.1% 3.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Away) - 5.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 93 - 12
Quad 48 - 611 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 124 Drake L 71-77 24%     0 - 1 -3.6 +0.7 -4.3
  Tue, Nov 11 5 @Arizona L 49-84 1%     0 - 2 -11.0 -12.9 +2.5
  Mon, Nov 24 252 Cal Poly W 93-87 62%     1 - 2 -2.1 +5.0 -7.8
  Wed, Nov 26 216 Southeast Missouri St. W 79-72 56%     2 - 2 +0.4 +4.4 -3.9
  Wed, Dec 3 153 South Dakota St. L 62-75 42%     2 - 3 -16.0 -9.6 -6.6
  Sat, Dec 6 155 @North Dakota St. L 68-69 23%     2 - 4 +1.8 -2.5 +4.3
  Tue, Dec 9 66 @Arizona St. L 66-83 6%    
  Sat, Dec 13 264 @San Diego L 75-77 40%    
  Thu, Dec 18 320 Southern Utah W 77-70 74%    
  Sat, Dec 20 188 @Incarnate Word L 68-74 28%    
  Thu, Jan 1 206 @Montana L 73-78 31%    
  Sat, Jan 3 164 @Montana St. L 66-73 25%    
  Thu, Jan 8 195 Weber St. W 75-74 51%    
  Sat, Jan 10 168 Idaho St. L 68-69 46%    
  Thu, Jan 15 278 @Sacramento St. L 74-76 43%    
  Sat, Jan 17 171 @Portland St. L 67-74 27%    
  Mon, Jan 19 206 Montana W 76-75 52%    
  Sat, Jan 24 157 Northern Colorado L 73-75 44%    
  Thu, Jan 29 234 Eastern Washington W 77-75 58%    
  Sat, Jan 31 173 Idaho L 72-73 47%    
  Thu, Feb 5 168 @Idaho St. L 65-72 26%    
  Sat, Feb 7 195 @Weber St. L 71-77 30%    
  Thu, Feb 12 171 Portland St. L 70-71 47%    
  Sat, Feb 14 278 Sacramento St. W 77-73 65%    
  Sat, Feb 21 157 @Northern Colorado L 70-78 25%    
  Thu, Feb 26 173 @Idaho L 69-76 28%    
  Sat, Feb 28 234 @Eastern Washington L 74-78 37%    
  Mon, Mar 2 164 Montana St. L 69-70 45%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.5 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 3.7 1.1 0.1 7.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 5.0 1.6 0.1 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.7 2.5 0.2 10.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 5.5 3.6 0.4 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.5 4.5 0.7 0.0 13.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 5.7 4.3 0.9 0.0 15.4 9th
10th 0.2 1.2 2.7 4.4 4.8 2.7 0.6 0.0 16.7 10th
Total 0.2 1.2 2.8 5.3 8.6 10.9 12.6 12.9 12.4 11.0 8.3 5.9 3.9 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.1% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 92.6% 0.4    0.3 0.1
14-4 85.9% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 52.8% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 25.1% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 4.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 20.8% 20.8% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 24.4% 24.4% 13.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.2% 20.7% 20.7% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
13-5 2.2% 18.1% 18.1% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.8
12-6 3.9% 12.1% 12.1% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 3.4
11-7 5.9% 10.0% 10.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 5.3
10-8 8.3% 8.1% 8.1% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 7.6
9-9 11.0% 5.1% 5.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 10.4
8-10 12.4% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 12.0
7-11 12.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 12.7
6-12 12.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 12.4
5-13 10.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.8
4-14 8.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.5
3-15 5.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.3
2-16 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.7 96.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%