Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#82
Expected Predictive Rating+13.1#44
Pace70.8#152
Improvement+0.1#179

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#62
First Shot+5.9#36
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#201
Layup/Dunks+0.7#159
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#74
Freethrows+2.5#58
Improvement+1.9#43

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#123
First Shot+2.1#108
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#231
Layups/Dunks+3.3#68
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#170
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#257
Freethrows+0.3#166
Improvement-1.8#319
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 2.2% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.6% 23.0% 10.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 14.4% 22.8% 10.4%
Average Seed 9.2 9.0 9.4
.500 or above 42.6% 59.7% 34.3%
.500 or above in Conference 18.2% 23.7% 15.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.4% 11.1% 17.5%
First Four4.3% 5.6% 3.6%
First Round12.2% 19.8% 8.5%
Second Round5.1% 8.6% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.4% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Neutral) - 32.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 12
Quad 24 - 37 - 16
Quad 33 - 111 - 17
Quad 45 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 320 Southern Utah W 81-64 95%     1 - 0 +4.8 +0.5 +3.7
  Sun, Nov 9 254 Utah Tech W 81-66 92%     2 - 0 +6.7 +3.8 +2.7
  Fri, Nov 14 4 Gonzaga L 65-77 14%     2 - 1 +6.6 +1.4 +5.2
  Mon, Nov 17 334 Georgia St. W 75-62 96%     3 - 1 -0.5 -3.2 +2.4
  Thu, Nov 20 108 @Hawaii W 83-76 49%     4 - 1 +14.3 +11.1 +2.7
  Mon, Nov 24 50 Texas W 87-86 36%     5 - 1 +11.7 +11.2 +0.4
  Tue, Nov 25 158 Washington St. W 100-94 76%     6 - 1 +5.8 +23.3 -17.6
  Wed, Nov 26 32 USC L 75-88 27%     6 - 2 +0.5 +11.3 -11.5
  Sat, Dec 6 41 Oklahoma L 77-82 33%    
  Tue, Dec 9 263 Northern Arizona W 83-67 93%    
  Sat, Dec 13 55 Santa Clara L 77-80 40%    
  Wed, Dec 17 31 @UCLA L 68-78 19%    
  Sun, Dec 21 163 Oregon St. W 78-67 84%    
  Sat, Jan 3 64 Colorado W 80-79 55%    
  Wed, Jan 7 8 @BYU L 70-85 8%    
  Sat, Jan 10 71 Kansas St. W 84-82 58%    
  Wed, Jan 14 9 @Arizona L 73-88 8%    
  Sun, Jan 18 7 @Houston L 62-78 7%    
  Wed, Jan 21 65 West Virginia W 71-70 55%    
  Sat, Jan 24 68 Cincinnati W 76-74 56%    
  Tue, Jan 27 63 @Central Florida L 80-85 33%    
  Sat, Jan 31 9 Arizona L 76-85 21%    
  Wed, Feb 4 117 @Utah W 79-78 53%    
  Sat, Feb 7 64 @Colorado L 77-82 34%    
  Tue, Feb 10 47 Oklahoma St. L 84-85 46%    
  Tue, Feb 17 30 Texas Tech L 74-78 37%    
  Sat, Feb 21 28 @Baylor L 76-86 19%    
  Tue, Feb 24 48 @TCU L 72-79 27%    
  Sat, Feb 28 117 Utah W 82-75 72%    
  Tue, Mar 3 18 Kansas L 71-77 29%    
  Sat, Mar 7 6 @Iowa St. L 71-87 7%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.1 0.7 0.1 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.8 1.5 0.1 4.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.7 4.5 1.4 0.1 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 4.9 3.1 0.3 0.0 9.2 10th
11th 0.3 3.7 5.4 1.0 0.0 10.5 11th
12th 0.1 2.2 6.1 2.1 0.1 10.7 12th
13th 0.1 1.3 5.7 4.0 0.4 11.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.9 4.7 4.8 1.0 0.0 11.3 14th
15th 0.1 0.9 3.7 4.4 1.4 0.1 10.6 15th
16th 0.4 1.4 2.8 2.9 1.0 0.1 8.6 16th
Total 0.4 1.5 3.8 7.6 11.5 14.5 15.8 14.9 12.0 8.5 5.1 2.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 71.4% 0.0    0.0
14-4 25.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 3.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 100.0% 7.7% 92.3% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.6% 100.0% 4.1% 95.9% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.2% 98.4% 3.8% 94.6% 7.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.3%
11-7 2.6% 88.9% 0.9% 88.0% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.3 88.8%
10-8 5.1% 71.3% 0.7% 70.6% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.5 71.1%
9-9 8.5% 47.8% 0.2% 47.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.5 0.1 4.4 47.8%
8-10 12.0% 16.6% 0.4% 16.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 0.1 10.0 16.3%
7-11 14.9% 3.9% 0.1% 3.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 14.3 3.8%
6-12 15.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 11.2 0.1 0.0 15.7 0.4%
5-13 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 14.5
4-14 11.5% 11.5
3-15 7.6% 7.6
2-16 3.8% 3.8
1-17 1.5% 1.5
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 14.6% 0.2% 14.4% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 2.8 3.2 3.7 0.2 85.4 14.4%