USC
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#35
Expected Predictive Rating+17.1#20
Pace74.0#75
Improvement-3.1#343

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#26
First Shot+6.9#27
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#90
Layup/Dunks+1.5#129
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#166
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#200
Freethrows+5.8#3
Improvement-0.7#231

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#60
First Shot+3.5#69
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#117
Layups/Dunks-2.2#262
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#57
Freethrows+2.2#61
Improvement-2.4#337
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 8.7% 9.2% 3.3%
Top 6 Seed 27.0% 28.1% 13.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 75.5% 76.6% 60.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.2% 76.3% 60.5%
Average Seed 7.4 7.3 8.1
.500 or above 98.3% 98.8% 92.3%
.500 or above in Conference 61.6% 62.6% 48.4%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 1.3%
First Four7.2% 7.1% 8.1%
First Round71.9% 73.1% 56.6%
Second Round42.4% 43.2% 31.4%
Sweet Sixteen13.9% 14.3% 8.3%
Elite Eight4.7% 4.8% 2.8%
Final Four1.6% 1.7% 1.0%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 92.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 8
Quad 27 - 212 - 10
Quad 34 - 116 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 252 Cal Poly W 94-64 96%     1 - 0 +21.9 +2.4 +14.8
  Sun, Nov 9 308 Manhattan W 114-83 98%     2 - 0 +19.8 +15.3 -0.1
  Fri, Nov 14 92 Illinois St. W 87-67 75%     3 - 0 +25.8 +18.1 +7.9
  Thu, Nov 20 147 Troy W 107-106 3OT 91%     4 - 0 -1.3 +1.3 -2.9
  Mon, Nov 24 52 Boise St. W 70-67 60%     5 - 0 +13.3 +4.5 +8.8
  Tue, Nov 25 64 Seton Hall W 83-81 66%     6 - 0 +10.6 +17.7 -7.1
  Wed, Nov 26 66 Arizona St. W 88-75 66%     7 - 0 +21.5 +22.9 -0.6
  Tue, Dec 2 81 @Oregon W 82-77 61%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +15.0 +15.3 -0.2
  Sat, Dec 6 49 Washington L 76-84 69%     8 - 1 1 - 1 -0.4 +2.6 -2.7
  Tue, Dec 9 264 @San Diego W 89-74 93%    
  Sun, Dec 14 151 Washington St. W 89-73 93%    
  Wed, Dec 17 277 Texas San Antonio W 89-67 98%    
  Sun, Dec 21 226 Brown W 81-61 97%    
  Fri, Jan 2 1 @Michigan L 73-90 6%    
  Mon, Jan 5 12 @Michigan St. L 69-78 21%    
  Fri, Jan 9 102 @Minnesota W 75-70 67%    
  Tue, Jan 13 93 Maryland W 84-74 83%    
  Sat, Jan 17 7 Purdue L 76-80 34%    
  Wed, Jan 21 61 Northwestern W 82-75 73%    
  Sun, Jan 25 30 @Wisconsin L 80-84 37%    
  Wed, Jan 28 25 @Iowa L 73-78 33%    
  Sat, Jan 31 123 Rutgers W 82-69 89%    
  Tue, Feb 3 28 Indiana W 79-77 57%    
  Sun, Feb 8 96 @Penn St. W 83-78 66%    
  Wed, Feb 11 24 @Ohio St. L 78-83 33%    
  Wed, Feb 18 15 Illinois L 80-82 42%    
  Sat, Feb 21 81 Oregon W 83-74 78%    
  Tue, Feb 24 27 @UCLA L 73-77 35%    
  Sat, Feb 28 48 Nebraska W 83-78 67%    
  Wed, Mar 4 49 @Washington L 78-79 47%    
  Sat, Mar 7 27 UCLA W 76-74 57%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.3 0.6 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.6 1.0 0.1 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.9 1.9 0.2 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 5.2 3.1 0.3 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.4 4.7 0.9 0.0 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.0 5.4 1.7 0.1 10.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 5.1 2.8 0.3 9.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.8 3.6 0.6 0.0 8.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.7 1.1 0.0 7.1 12th
13th 0.1 1.0 2.7 1.4 0.1 5.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.2 0.2 3.3 14th
15th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.2 2.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 16th
17th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.0 7.0 10.9 13.7 15.1 14.6 12.4 9.2 5.7 3.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 80.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 39.6% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 13.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 2.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.2% 100.0% 9.9% 90.1% 3.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.0% 99.9% 7.7% 92.2% 3.8 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 5.7% 100.0% 3.7% 96.3% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 9.2% 99.8% 2.7% 97.1% 5.6 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.7 2.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 12.4% 99.4% 1.3% 98.2% 6.5 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.6 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
11-9 14.6% 97.7% 0.7% 97.1% 7.6 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.8 4.1 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.3 97.7%
10-10 15.1% 92.0% 0.4% 91.5% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.8 4.2 2.7 0.5 1.2 91.9%
9-11 13.7% 72.3% 0.1% 72.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.4 3.9 2.3 0.1 3.8 72.2%
8-12 10.9% 41.6% 0.1% 41.5% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.4 0.1 6.3 41.6%
7-13 7.0% 15.1% 15.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 5.9 15.1%
6-14 4.0% 1.3% 1.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 1.3%
5-15 1.9% 1.9
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 75.5% 1.2% 74.3% 7.4 0.3 0.8 2.7 4.9 7.8 10.4 11.3 11.4 10.3 9.1 6.1 0.3 24.5 75.2%