USC
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.2 47
Expected Predictive Rating +14.8 34
Pace 74.8 35
Improvement -2.2 276

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- #75 B B- C A+ C-
Defense B+ #33 B B+ C+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 104 65% 44 +4.7 35
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 92 42% 59 +2.6 60
Three Pointers 34% 322 35% 149 -3.4 295
1st FG Attempt 1.10 67 +4.0 68
Second Chance 35.7% 48 1.02 179 0.36 77
Turnovers 16.8% 172
Freethrows 0.42 1 73% 170 0.31 2
Total Offense +4.4 75

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 234 51% 33 +3.6 67
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 115 43% 326 -1.8 316
Three Pointers 41% 175 30% 31 +2.6 78
1st FG Attempt 0.93 49 +4.4 49
Second Chance 27.9% 77 0.88 20 0.24 33
Turnovers 18.0% 112
Freethrows 0.28 92 75% 318 0.21 137
Total Defense +6.8 33

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.3 232 -0.3 111
Shot Type Accuracy +4.3 58 -4.0 47
Possession Length 15.8 45 17.7 259
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 107 0.16 146
Improvement -4.1 #344 +1.9 #85

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 1% 2% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62% 83% 55%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62% 83% 55%
Average Seed 9.7 9.2 9.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 50% 79% 40%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four17% 12% 19%
First Round53% 76% 45%
Second Round19% 30% 16%
Sweet Sixteen3% 5% 2%
Elite Eight1% 1% 1%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Illinois (Home) - 24.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 9
Quad 27 - 211 - 11
Quad 35 - 116 - 11
Quad 44 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 265 Cal Poly W 94 - 64 96% +12  97% 1 - 0 A +21 C- -2 C+ D C- A+ +18 A- B+ A
 Sun, Nov 9 323 Manhattan W 114 - 83 98% +16  91% 2 - 0 A +18 A +12 D+ A+ C+ C+ +1 C- A- D+
 Fri, Nov 14 94 Illinois St. W 87 - 67 72% +12  95% 3 - 0 A+ +25 A+ +17 A A A+ A- +9 A+ B- C
 Thu, Nov 20 135 Troy W 107 - 106 3OT 88% +2  60% 4 - 0 C -0 D+ -2 C- F A C+ +2 B+ F B+
 Mon, Nov 24 58 Boise St. W 70 - 67 57% +2  64% 5 - 0 B+ +12 C- -2 B C- D A+ +14 A B A+
 Tue, Nov 25 53 Seton Hall W 83 - 81 54% -2  37% 6 - 0 B+ +12 A+ +18 A+ A C+ D+ -5 F A+ D
 Wed, Nov 26 69 Arizona St. W 88 - 75 62% +4  76% 7 - 0 A +21 A+ +20 A+ A+ B C+ +1 D+ A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 2 80 @Oregon W 82 - 77 55% -1  46% 8 - 0 1 - 0 A- +15 A +13 A A F C+ +2 D- C+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 46 Washington L 76 - 84 61% +8  84% 8 - 1 1 - 1 C +0 C +1 D C A C -0 B+ D- C+
 Tue, Dec 9 216 @San Diego W 94 - 81 85% +5  59% 9 - 1 B+ +13 B+ +8 A+ C+ F B- +4 A- C C
 Sun, Dec 14 125 Washington St. W 68 - 61 87% +6  98% 10 - 1 B- +6 F -11 F D- C- A+ +17 A A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 350 Texas San Antonio W 97 - 70 99% +10  69% 11 - 1 B+ +11 B+ +9 A+ B- C+ C+ +1 B+ F A
 Fri, Jan 2 1 @Michigan L 66 - 96 6% -16  0% 11 - 2 1 - 2 C -1 D -5 C+ C- F A- +9 A- A+ D+
 Mon, Jan 5 10 @Michigan St. L 51 - 80 14% -14  13% 11 - 3 1 - 3 D+ -6 F -12 F+ C+ F B+ +6 D- A+ C-
 Fri, Jan 9 71 @Minnesota W 70 - 69 OT 51% +3  68% 12 - 3 2 - 3 B+ +12 B- +5 A F+ F B+ +7 B B- C+
 Tue, Jan 13 104 Maryland W 88 - 71 82% +4  69% 13 - 3 3 - 3 A +18 A+ +16 A- C+ A+ B- +3 D+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 9 Purdue L 64 - 69 27% +2  53% 13 - 4 3 - 4 B+ +13 D -4 D A+ C- A+ +17 A+ A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 21 64 Northwestern L 68 - 74 71% -1  31% 13 - 5 3 - 5 C -1 D+ -3 D- C- A+ B- +2 A A- D-
 Sun, Jan 25 33 @Wisconsin W 73 - 71 28% +1  58% 14 - 5 4 - 5 A +19 A- +11 C- B+ A+ A- +9 A+ D+ D-
 Wed, Jan 28 25 @Iowa L 72 - 73 23% -1  51% 14 - 6 4 - 6 A +18 B +7 A C+ C+ A +11 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 122 Rutgers W 78 - 75 86% +10  91% 15 - 6 5 - 6 C+ +3 C +1 A+ D F C+ +1 A- D+ F+
 Tue, Feb 3 29 Indiana W 81 - 75 48% +5  87% 16 - 6 6 - 6 A +18 B +7 A A+ F+ A +11 A- A+ C
 Sun, Feb 8 109 @Penn St. W 77 - 75 66% -1  46% 17 - 6 7 - 6 B +9 C +0 D A+ D+ A- +9 D+ B+ A+
 Wed, Feb 11 39 @Ohio St. L 82 - 89 30% +0  48% 17 - 7 7 - 7 B +10 B+ +8 C+ B A- B- +2 C- A+ C+
 Wed, Feb 18 6 Illinois L 75 - 82 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 80 Oregon W 78 - 71 76%
 Tue, Feb 24 34 @UCLA L 71 - 77 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 15 Nebraska L 73 - 77 34%
 Wed, Mar 4 46 @Washington L 75 - 78 39%
 Sat, Mar 7 34 UCLA L 74 - 75 50%
Totals 20 - 10 10 - 10 +11 B- +4 B B- C B+ +7 B B+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B+ B C+ B 42% 25% 34% C- B B C B- C A+ C A+ B+ B+ D- B+ B 37% 22% 41% C+ B B- A- B+ C+ B- D C+
1.15 65% 42% 35% +4 0 1.10 36% 1.0 .36 17% .42 73% .31 0.99 51% 43% 30% -4 0 0.93 28% 0.9 .24 18% .28 75% .32
Nov
3		 Cal Poly C- C F B C 46% 9% 44% B+ C+ B- F D C- A+ D- A+ A+ A F B+ A 48% 4% 48% F+ A- D- A+ B+ A A+ A+ A+
1.13 60% 20% 38% +2 +2 1.09 36% 0.8 .28 17% .58 68% .39 0.77 44% 50% 30% -9 +3 0.89 35% 0.6 .21 27% .20 58% .12
Nov
9		 Manhattan A B F B D+ 48% 23% 30% C D+ A+ B+ A+ C+ A+ C+ A+ C+ A- F B C 42% 19% 38% D C- B- A+ A- D+ F C F
1.39 66% 21% 39% +2 0 1.07 52% 1.3 .65 15% .46 75% .34 1.01 45% 60% 30% -3 0 0.96 24% 0.7 .17 15% .51 81% .41
Nov
14		 Illinois St. A+ A+ A+ D- A 42% 24% 34% B- A B+ A A A+ A+ D A+ A- A+ F A+ A+ 33% 18% 49% C- A+ F A+ B- C A- F C
1.26 71% 50% 29% +6 0 1.14 31% 1.2 .38 6% .54 66% .35 0.97 44% 60% 22% -9 0 0.84 40% 0.7 .28 16% .22 92% .21
Nov
20		 Troy D+ C A- D C- 37% 24% 39% C- C- F B F A A+ B A+ C+ B- A B A- 47% 16% 37% C+ B+ F C- F B+ F B- F
1.06 56% 50% 31% 0 -1 1.01 16% 1.1 .18 13% .52 74% .39 1.05 52% 27% 31% -6 +1 0.91 44% 1.0 .46 20% .43 71% .31
Nov
24		 Boise St. C- F B- A+ B 30% 28% 42% D+ B C+ F+ C- D C+ D C A+ A- F A+ A+ 50% 10% 40% D- A C+ B+ B A+ A+ F A+
1.01 40% 43% 48% +5 -2 1.08 23% 0.9 .19 19% .30 65% .19 0.96 50% 60% 24% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.9 .31 22% .20 91% .18
Nov
25		 Seton Hall A+ B+ F+ A+ A+ 50% 28% 23% C- A+ A B- A C+ A+ A+ A+ D+ D- F D F 43% 31% 26% A- F A+ A A+ D B- A- B+
1.20 60% 27% 56% +5 0 1.13 41% 1.0 .41 23% .71 82% .58 1.17 65% 65% 36% +12 -1 1.24 17% 0.8 .14 13% .30 67% .20
Nov
26		 Arizona St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 28% 30% 43% D- A+ A+ C+ A+ B B- F D+ C+ D A+ D C- 40% 12% 49% D- D+ C+ A+ A+ B- F F F
1.33 85% 64% 45% +22 -2 1.43 50% 1.1 .54 18% .33 61% .20 1.13 65% 20% 38% +4 +1 1.12 31% 0.7 .21 17% .49 85% .42
Dec
2		 Oregon A B- A+ C A 37% 24% 39% B- A A+ C- A F A+ D+ A+ C+ A F F D- 40% 13% 47% D+ D- B D+ C+ A- F A- F
1.20 59% 73% 33% +8 -1 1.17 45% 0.9 .39 22% .47 72% .34 1.12 44% 67% 43% +5 +1 1.13 32% 1.2 .39 20% .48 65% .31
Dec
6		 Washington C F F B- D 31% 31% 38% C- D D+ B+ C A A+ A+ A+ C C B- A- A- 40% 32% 28% C+ B+ D+ D D- C+ F D F
1.04 44% 25% 35% -8 -2 0.83 23% 1.1 .25 11% .43 86% .37 1.15 60% 38% 29% -2 -1 0.96 39% 1.2 .47 16% .41 80% .33
Dec
9		 San Diego B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 21% 35% C A+ F A+ C+ F A+ B+ A+ B- A+ F B+ A 32% 21% 47% C A- C C+ C C F F F
1.20 63% 56% 60% +20 0 1.42 24% 1.7 .40 27% .61 77% .47 1.03 39% 58% 30% -5 -1 0.91 30% 0.9 .28 18% .37 83% .31
Dec
14		 Washington St. F C C+ F F 48% 27% 25% C+ F F B D- C- A+ A- A+ A+ B- A+ B- A+ 34% 12% 54% D+ A A+ C A+ C B+ B- B+
0.97 57% 42% 9% -9 0 0.84 17% 1.2 .21 16% .57 79% .45 0.87 59% 17% 33% -3 +1 0.98 12% 1.0 .12 18% .24 71% .17
Dec
17		 Texas San Antonio B+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 41% 18% 41% C A+ C B B- C+ A+ A- A+ C+ A C- A B 24% 27% 49% A B+ F D+ F A F F F
1.31 76% 44% 43% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .44 15% .44 79% .35 0.94 42% 38% 25% -10 -2 0.78 43% 0.9 .40 23% .40 83% .33
Jan
2		 Michigan D A+ D F B 18% 41% 41% F+ C+ B- F C- F A+ F A+ A- F A A+ A- 43% 12% 45% B A- A A+ A+ D+ F C+ F
0.79 67% 30% 25% -7 -4 0.80 28% 0.7 .20 25% .53 64% .34 1.15 80% 29% 23% +1 +1 1.07 31% 1.1 .34 13% .54 72% .39
Jan
5		 Michigan St. F B- F F F 40% 27% 33% C+ F+ B- B- C+ F B B- B+ B+ C- F D- F 33% 33% 35% A- D- A+ A+ A+ C- B+ B- A-
0.72 58% 23% 13% -15 -1 0.71 22% 0.8 .16 24% .30 75% .22 1.13 65% 59% 39% +12 -2 1.21 31% 0.6 .19 17% .30 72% .22
Jan
9		 Minnesota B- A- A B- A 38% 27% 35% C A A+ F F+ F A A+ A+ B+ C+ A D B- 20% 22% 59% A+ B D- A+ B- C+ A A+ A+
1.07 67% 46% 35% +6 -1 1.13 45% 0.3 .12 24% .34 82% .28 1.05 60% 27% 37% +1 -1 1.00 36% 0.8 .29 17% .27 60% .16
Jan
13		 Maryland A+ A+ C C- A- 39% 19% 42% C A- A F C+ A+ D+ B+ C B- A F D F+ 21% 35% 44% A+ D+ A+ D- A+ C F F+ F
1.30 77% 36% 33% +7 0 1.16 39% 0.8 .30 9% .26 75% .19 1.05 44% 53% 37% +4 -3 1.05 15% 1.3 .19 18% .48 78% .38
Jan
17		 Purdue D A A+ F D- 37% 27% 35% B- D B A+ A+ C- B+ F D- A+ B+ A+ C A+ 41% 20% 39% D A+ A+ F+ A+ D+ F+ C+ D-
0.93 68% 50% 6% -8 -1 0.84 28% 1.7 .47 19% .25 36% .09 1.00 57% 20% 35% -3 0 0.96 17% 1.3 .22 12% .36 73% .26
Jan
21		 Northwestern D+ C D+ F D- 47% 33% 20% D+ D- C+ D C- A+ A+ F A+ B- D+ B A+ A 45% 31% 24% B A A C+ A- D- B F C+
1.01 57% 33% 11% -9 -1 0.82 32% 0.8 .27 9% .70 60% .42 1.10 64% 35% 15% -5 -1 0.91 23% 1.3 .29 9% .29 83% .24
Jan
25		 Wisconsin A- A- F+ F+ C- 29% 25% 46% C- C- A+ D+ B+ A+ A+ B- A+ A- A+ F+ A+ A+ 33% 11% 56% C+ A+ F B+ D+ D- C- D+ C-
1.14 64% 33% 27% -4 -1 0.92 35% 0.9 .32 8% .39 74% .29 1.11 44% 50% 23% -12 +1 0.80 39% 1.0 .39 9% .34 80% .27
Jan
28		 Iowa B B+ A+ B A+ 38% 32% 30% D- A C+ B- C+ C+ C- D C- A A- A+ A- A+ 33% 17% 50% B A+ D+ F F A+ F F F
1.06 67% 53% 36% +9 -1 1.17 29% 1.0 .29 22% .30 69% .21 1.07 53% 25% 30% -6 0 0.89 36% 1.3 .48 22% .41 86% .36
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Rutgers C A+ A B A+ 49% 32% 20% C- A+ A F D F A+ C- A+ C+ A C+ A- A- 31% 38% 31% B+ A- D C D+ F+ A+ D+ A+
1.11 75% 46% 38% +12 -1 1.24 43% 0.6 .25 24% .56 73% .41 1.06 44% 36% 28% -8 -3 0.81 38% 1.1 .42 11% .19 75% .14
Feb
3		 Indiana B C+ A A A+ 29% 38% 33% F+ A A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A- A+ A A- F B A 37% 7% 56% C A- A+ A+ A+ C A D+ A-
1.11 54% 47% 40% +5 -3 1.07 39% 1.4 .54 21% .54 81% .43 1.03 52% 100% 31% 0 +2 1.05 22% 0.8 .16 14% .26 81% .21
Feb
8		 Penn St. C C B F D- 44% 24% 32% C D B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ C- A A- C+ F C- C- 54% 13% 33% F+ D+ C A B+ A+ B A+ A
1.06 59% 42% 25% -3 0 0.96 35% 1.8 .65 21% .31 72% .23 1.04 57% 71% 35% +5 +2 1.15 29% 1.0 .29 24% .27 60% .16
Feb
11		 Ohio St. B+ B+ C+ D- B 28% 44% 28% F C+ A- C B A- A+ C- A+ B- F+ F C+ D 24% 34% 42% A+ C- B+ A+ A+ C+ D F F
1.11 64% 41% 29% +1 -4 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 14% .52 73% .38 1.21 75% 65% 33% +13 -3 1.22 31% 0.8 .23 16% .40 96% .39



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.3 2.0 6th
7th 0.1 3.0 2.5 0.1 5.6 7th
8th 1.9 5.8 0.8 8.6 8th
9th 0.4 7.5 4.8 0.0 12.8 9th
10th 0.5 7.4 14.1 1.4 23.4 10th
11th 0.7 9.9 19.7 5.2 0.1 35.6 11th
12th 2.7 6.8 1.6 11.1 12th
13th 0.6 0.2 0.8 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 4.0 17.3 29.2 28.8 15.3 4.8 0.7 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.7% 98.5% 98.5% 6.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.5%
12-8 4.8% 98.6% 0.8% 97.7% 8.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 98.5%
11-9 15.3% 92.1% 0.1% 92.0% 9.0 0.1 0.7 3.5 5.5 3.6 0.7 1.2 92.1%
10-10 28.8% 81.2% 0.1% 81.1% 9.7 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.1 9.5 5.3 5.4 81.2%
9-11 29.2% 52.9% 0.1% 52.8% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 4.6 9.6 0.1 13.8 52.8%
8-12 17.3% 20.6% 0.1% 20.5% 10.8 0.1 0.5 2.9 0.1 13.7 20.5%
7-13 4.0% 2.8% 2.8% 10.9 0.0 0.1 3.9 2.8%
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 62.0% 0.1% 61.8% 9.7 38.0 61.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7% 0.6% 11.0 0.6