USC
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.1#59
Expected Predictive Rating+8.8#68
Pace69.7#132
Improvement+4.5#29

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#44
First Shot+9.6#10
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#337
Layup/Dunks+5.4#24
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#28
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#251
Freethrows+3.1#32
Improvement+4.0#28

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#72
First Shot+2.3#98
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#64
Layups/Dunks-0.3#182
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#114
Freethrows-0.4#212
Improvement+0.5#160
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.2% 21.4% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.8% 20.9% 6.2%
Average Seed 10.4 10.3 10.7
.500 or above 75.5% 93.1% 60.9%
.500 or above in Conference 12.5% 23.9% 3.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.0% 1.7%
First Four7.1% 10.5% 4.3%
First Round9.6% 15.8% 4.4%
Second Round3.3% 5.6% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rutgers (Away) - 45.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 54 - 11
Quad 24 - 38 - 13
Quad 34 - 212 - 16
Quad 45 - 017 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 119   Chattanooga W 77-51 83%     1 - 0 +26.2 +4.8 +22.8
  Nov 07, 2024 229   Idaho St. W 75-69 93%     2 - 0 -0.2 +2.2 -2.1
  Nov 13, 2024 205   Texas Arlington W 98-95 91%     3 - 0 -1.9 +8.7 -11.0
  Nov 17, 2024 112   California L 66-71 81%     3 - 1 -4.3 -4.7 +0.0
  Nov 20, 2024 163   San Jose St. W 82-68 88%     4 - 1 +11.3 +14.5 -1.9
  Nov 24, 2024 327   Grambling St. W 80-69 97%     5 - 1 -1.7 +7.1 -8.3
  Nov 28, 2024 30   St. Mary's L 36-71 33%     5 - 2 -20.3 -23.2 -1.8
  Nov 29, 2024 38   New Mexico L 73-83 41%     5 - 3 +2.4 +5.8 -3.1
  Dec 04, 2024 39   Oregon L 60-68 52%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +1.6 -7.5 +8.9
  Dec 07, 2024 90   @ Washington W 85-61 57%     6 - 4 1 - 1 +32.3 +17.8 +14.8
  Dec 15, 2024 188   Montana St. W 89-63 90%     7 - 4 +21.9 +8.2 +11.8
  Dec 18, 2024 114   Cal St. Northridge W 90-69 82%     8 - 4 +21.3 +15.5 +5.2
  Dec 22, 2024 224   Southern W 82-51 92%     9 - 4 +25.1 +5.4 +18.0
  Jan 04, 2025 22   Michigan L 74-85 39%     9 - 5 1 - 2 +2.1 +5.6 -3.3
  Jan 08, 2025 57   @ Indiana L 69-82 39%     9 - 6 1 - 3 +0.1 +1.7 -1.4
  Jan 11, 2025 18   @ Illinois W 82-72 21%     10 - 6 2 - 3 +28.7 +10.5 +17.4
  Jan 14, 2025 61   Iowa W 99-89 63%     11 - 6 3 - 3 +16.7 +21.6 -5.3
  Jan 18, 2025 7   Wisconsin L 69-84 28%     11 - 7 3 - 4 +1.2 +1.6 -0.5
  Jan 22, 2025 48   @ Nebraska W 78-73 37%     12 - 7 4 - 4 +18.6 +14.0 +4.7
  Jan 27, 2025 27   UCLA L 76-82 42%     12 - 8 4 - 5 +6.2 +16.2 -10.4
  Feb 01, 2025 12   Michigan St. W 70-64 30%     13 - 8 5 - 5 +21.7 +8.3 +13.6
  Feb 04, 2025 58   @ Northwestern L 75-77 39%     13 - 9 5 - 6 +10.8 +18.4 -7.8
  Feb 07, 2025 16   @ Purdue L 72-90 18%     13 - 10 5 - 7 +2.0 +3.2 -0.5
  Feb 11, 2025 62   Penn St. W 92-67 65%     14 - 10 6 - 7 +31.0 +23.0 +8.6
  Feb 15, 2025 76   Minnesota L 66-69 69%     14 - 11 6 - 8 +1.9 +1.8 -0.3
  Feb 20, 2025 13   @ Maryland L 71-88 16%     14 - 12 6 - 9 +3.5 +4.4 +0.0
  Feb 23, 2025 63   @ Rutgers L 76-77 45%    
  Feb 26, 2025 33   Ohio St. L 74-75 48%    
  Mar 01, 2025 39   @ Oregon L 73-78 32%    
  Mar 05, 2025 90   Washington W 79-72 75%    
  Mar 08, 2025 27   @ UCLA L 67-74 24%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.2 0.7 0.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.9 0.6 3.7 7th
8th 2.2 5.8 0.2 8.2 8th
9th 0.3 11.4 1.9 13.6 9th
10th 4.4 11.4 0.1 15.9 10th
11th 0.2 14.4 2.8 17.4 11th
12th 2.2 11.9 0.2 14.2 12th
13th 0.0 8.0 3.1 11.0 13th
14th 0.3 8.0 0.2 8.5 14th
15th 2.0 2.1 4.1 15th
16th 1.8 0.1 2.0 16th
17th 0.3 0.0 0.3 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 4.5 20.5 34.3 28.2 11.0 1.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 1.5% 84.4% 1.9% 82.5% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 84.1%
10-10 11.0% 53.6% 0.4% 53.2% 10.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.7 0.0 5.1 53.4%
9-11 28.2% 18.1% 0.8% 17.3% 10.8 0.1 0.2 0.7 3.5 0.6 23.1 17.4%
8-12 34.3% 2.6% 0.2% 2.4% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 33.4 2.4%
7-13 20.5% 20.5
6-14 4.5% 4.5
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.2% 0.4% 12.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.1 7.0 0.8 0.0 86.8 12.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 91.3% 8.3 21.7 30.4 30.4 8.7
Lose Out 4.5%