Villanova
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.6#42
Expected Predictive Rating+8.2#69
Pace60.8#348
Improvement+4.9#18

Offense
Total Offense+9.9#13
First Shot+10.0#6
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#191
Layup/Dunks-1.2#228
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#65
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.7#4
Freethrows+0.6#139
Improvement+1.1#110

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#124
First Shot+0.9#150
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#110
Layups/Dunks+3.7#57
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#339
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#264
Freethrows+1.5#76
Improvement+3.8#18
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.8% 2.3% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.4% 43.2% 28.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 34.6% 38.4% 24.1%
Average Seed 9.4 9.3 9.8
.500 or above 95.1% 97.5% 88.4%
.500 or above in Conference 86.2% 91.2% 72.1%
Conference Champion 3.3% 4.1% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.7% 10.1% 8.6%
First Round34.5% 38.0% 24.5%
Second Round16.1% 17.9% 10.7%
Sweet Sixteen4.3% 5.0% 2.3%
Elite Eight1.6% 1.8% 0.9%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Home) - 74.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 26 - 39 - 11
Quad 35 - 214 - 12
Quad 46 - 120 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 276   Lafayette W 75-63 96%     1 - 0 +2.8 +1.2 +1.8
  Nov 06, 2024 207   Columbia L 80-90 93%     1 - 1 -15.0 +4.2 -19.6
  Nov 08, 2024 355   NJIT W 91-54 99%     2 - 1 +20.7 +28.7 -2.1
  Nov 12, 2024 90   @ Saint Joseph's L 76-83 60%     2 - 2 +2.0 +3.3 -0.8
  Nov 15, 2024 107   Virginia L 60-70 78%     2 - 3 -6.5 -1.3 -6.4
  Nov 19, 2024 287   Penn W 93-49 97%     3 - 3 +34.1 +21.9 +15.8
  Nov 24, 2024 25   Maryland L 75-76 38%     3 - 4 +13.7 +19.2 -5.6
  Nov 27, 2024 294   Rider W 72-48 97%     4 - 4 +13.6 +7.2 +10.8
  Dec 03, 2024 39   Cincinnati W 68-60 60%     5 - 4 +17.1 +17.6 +1.2
  Dec 07, 2024 110   Temple W 94-65 79%     6 - 4 +32.2 +32.2 +3.2
  Dec 11, 2024 328   Fairleigh Dickinson W 86-72 98%     7 - 4 +0.8 +13.9 -11.7
  Dec 17, 2024 132   Seton Hall W 79-67 88%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +11.1 +13.1 -1.1
  Dec 21, 2024 33   @ Creighton L 79-86 35%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +8.7 +24.2 -16.5
  Jan 01, 2025 84   @ Butler W 73-65 58%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +17.5 +12.7 +5.7
  Jan 04, 2025 106   DePaul W 100-56 84%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +44.8 +33.2 +14.7
  Jan 08, 2025 24   Connecticut W 68-66 47%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +14.3 +10.1 +4.6
  Jan 11, 2025 16   @ St. John's L 68-80 23%     11 - 6 4 - 2 +7.2 +12.2 -5.8
  Jan 14, 2025 41   @ Xavier L 63-69 39%     11 - 7 4 - 3 +8.4 +3.7 +4.2
  Jan 17, 2025 81   Providence W 75-73 76%     12 - 7 5 - 3 +6.4 +7.5 -1.0
  Jan 20, 2025 72   Georgetown W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 24, 2025 20   @ Marquette L 69-76 26%    
  Feb 01, 2025 33   Creighton W 73-72 56%    
  Feb 05, 2025 106   @ DePaul W 76-71 69%    
  Feb 09, 2025 41   Xavier W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 12, 2025 16   St. John's L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 81   @ Providence W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 18, 2025 24   @ Connecticut L 70-76 28%    
  Feb 21, 2025 20   Marquette L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 26, 2025 132   @ Seton Hall W 71-64 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 84   Butler W 77-69 76%    
  Mar 04, 2025 72   @ Georgetown W 70-69 54%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.9 0.2 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 3.9 2.4 0.3 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 6.4 5.0 0.5 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.3 8.7 7.2 0.9 0.0 19.3 4th
5th 0.4 3.9 9.8 9.2 1.6 0.0 24.9 5th
6th 0.6 4.1 8.1 5.7 1.2 0.0 19.6 6th
7th 0.5 1.9 3.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 8.3 14.2 18.2 21.0 16.5 10.4 4.6 1.2 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 77.6% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1
15-5 36.0% 1.7    0.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.1% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 1.2% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.6% 90.9% 16.9% 74.0% 7.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.4 89.0%
14-6 10.4% 78.5% 14.0% 64.5% 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.3 2.2 0.7 2.2 75.0%
13-7 16.5% 62.3% 9.0% 53.2% 9.6 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.5 3.6 2.3 0.1 6.2 58.5%
12-8 21.0% 43.8% 6.9% 36.9% 10.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.4 3.3 0.1 11.8 39.6%
11-9 18.2% 23.3% 4.9% 18.4% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.2 0.3 14.0 19.4%
10-10 14.2% 11.0% 4.0% 7.0% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.2 12.6 7.3%
9-11 8.3% 3.7% 2.4% 1.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.0 1.4%
8-12 3.8% 2.6% 2.6% 11.5 0.1 0.1 3.7
7-13 1.4% 2.8% 2.8% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 39.4% 7.3% 32.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.5 5.6 7.9 11.2 9.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 60.6 34.6%