Villanova
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#48
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#116
Pace60.8#349
Improvement+6.1#4

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#18
First Shot+8.3#13
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#174
Layup/Dunks-2.0#256
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#89
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.0#7
Freethrows-0.3#200
Improvement+3.9#6

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#113
First Shot+2.1#110
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#187
Layups/Dunks+4.1#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#323
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#245
Freethrows+1.5#83
Improvement+2.2#31
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 3.4% 3.9% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.2% 33.6% 18.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 27.4% 29.7% 16.1%
Average Seed 8.9 8.9 9.4
.500 or above 75.3% 79.2% 55.3%
.500 or above in Conference 61.6% 65.8% 39.7%
Conference Champion 4.5% 5.1% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 2.1% 10.1%
First Four5.6% 5.9% 4.4%
First Round28.4% 30.7% 16.4%
Second Round14.2% 15.6% 7.4%
Sweet Sixteen4.3% 4.7% 1.9%
Elite Eight1.6% 1.8% 0.5%
Final Four0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Seton Hall (Home) - 83.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 49 - 12
Quad 34 - 213 - 14
Quad 45 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 239   Lafayette W 75-63 94%     1 - 0 +5.0 +1.9 +3.3
  Nov 06, 2024 183   Columbia L 80-90 91%     1 - 1 -14.1 +5.9 -20.4
  Nov 08, 2024 351   NJIT W 91-54 98%     2 - 1 +21.4 +27.8 -0.5
  Nov 12, 2024 103   @ Saint Joseph's L 76-83 60%     2 - 2 +0.9 +2.8 -1.4
  Nov 15, 2024 93   Virginia L 60-70 67%     2 - 3 -4.2 +0.4 -5.8
  Nov 19, 2024 284   Penn W 93-49 96%     3 - 3 +34.4 +21.9 +16.1
  Nov 24, 2024 19   Maryland L 75-76 35%     3 - 4 +13.4 +19.4 -6.2
  Nov 27, 2024 288   Rider W 72-48 96%     4 - 4 +14.3 +7.6 +11.0
  Dec 03, 2024 27   Cincinnati W 68-60 51%     5 - 4 +18.3 +15.3 +4.7
  Dec 07, 2024 118   Temple W 94-65 77%     6 - 4 +31.9 +33.2 +1.9
  Dec 11, 2024 339   Fairleigh Dickinson W 86-72 98%     7 - 4 -0.2 +12.2 -11.0
  Dec 17, 2024 117   Seton Hall W 67-56 84%    
  Dec 21, 2024 36   @ Creighton L 69-74 33%    
  Jan 01, 2025 74   @ Butler W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 04, 2025 88   DePaul W 75-68 75%    
  Jan 08, 2025 9   Connecticut L 69-73 35%    
  Jan 11, 2025 15   @ St. John's L 69-77 24%    
  Jan 14, 2025 53   @ Xavier L 71-74 41%    
  Jan 17, 2025 75   Providence W 69-63 72%    
  Jan 20, 2025 90   Georgetown W 74-67 75%    
  Jan 24, 2025 13   @ Marquette L 68-76 24%    
  Feb 01, 2025 36   Creighton W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 05, 2025 88   @ DePaul W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 09, 2025 53   Xavier W 74-71 62%    
  Feb 12, 2025 15   St. John's L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 75   @ Providence W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 18, 2025 9   @ Connecticut L 66-76 18%    
  Feb 21, 2025 13   Marquette L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 26, 2025 117   @ Seton Hall W 64-59 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 74   Butler W 75-69 71%    
  Mar 04, 2025 90   @ Georgetown W 71-70 55%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.4 4.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.7 5.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 14.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.6 5.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 15.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 5.3 5.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 14.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.2 4.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.2 3.2 0.9 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.1 0.8 0.1 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.6 7.1 10.1 12.4 13.7 13.2 11.8 9.5 6.5 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 98.6% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 88.0% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
16-4 64.6% 1.3    0.8 0.5 0.1
15-5 33.9% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 10.9% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.5% 4.5 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.3% 100.0% 29.3% 70.7% 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.8% 99.2% 22.4% 76.8% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
16-4 2.0% 98.8% 19.0% 79.8% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.5%
15-5 3.8% 95.3% 14.9% 80.4% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 94.4%
14-6 6.5% 87.1% 12.1% 75.0% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.8 85.4%
13-7 9.5% 70.9% 9.4% 61.5% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.9 2.1 1.0 0.0 2.8 67.9%
12-8 11.8% 51.0% 6.6% 44.4% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.3 1.8 0.1 5.8 47.6%
11-9 13.2% 28.5% 4.6% 23.9% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.9 0.2 9.4 25.1%
10-10 13.7% 12.5% 3.1% 9.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.2 12.0 9.7%
9-11 12.4% 3.1% 1.7% 1.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 12.0 1.4%
8-12 10.1% 1.3% 1.3% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.9
7-13 7.1% 1.0% 1.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0
6-14 4.6% 0.5% 0.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 4.5
5-15 2.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 2.5
4-16 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-17 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 31.2% 5.2% 26.0% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.9 4.9 5.9 7.1 6.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.8 27.4%