Providence
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#75
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#106
Pace62.2#340
Improvement+1.5#80

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#104
First Shot-0.1#173
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#41
Layup/Dunks-2.6#271
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#64
Freethrows+0.5#151
Improvement+3.1#14

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#61
First Shot+1.9#118
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#24
Layups/Dunks-0.5#183
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#21
Freethrows-1.2#267
Improvement-1.6#301
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.3% 14.2% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.7% 12.0% 4.4%
Average Seed 9.7 9.5 10.0
.500 or above 37.4% 54.3% 29.6%
.500 or above in Conference 35.3% 52.4% 27.5%
Conference Champion 1.0% 2.3% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 8.6% 3.8% 10.8%
First Four2.4% 3.7% 1.8%
First Round7.0% 12.2% 4.6%
Second Round2.8% 4.9% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.1% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. John's (Home) - 31.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 10
Quad 25 - 67 - 15
Quad 33 - 210 - 17
Quad 45 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 222   Central Connecticut St. W 59-55 89%     1 - 0 -2.2 -7.5 +5.8
  Nov 09, 2024 323   Stonehill W 76-49 95%     2 - 0 +14.9 -4.7 +18.7
  Nov 12, 2024 270   Hampton W 60-51 92%     3 - 0 +0.2 -7.2 +8.8
  Nov 16, 2024 331   Green Bay W 79-65 96%     4 - 0 +0.8 +1.5 -0.2
  Nov 19, 2024 341   Delaware St. W 78-48 97%     5 - 0 +15.7 +12.3 +8.3
  Nov 27, 2024 37   Oklahoma L 77-79 32%     5 - 1 +9.9 +9.6 +0.4
  Nov 28, 2024 124   Davidson L 58-69 68%     5 - 2 -8.7 -7.8 -2.5
  Nov 29, 2024 46   Indiana L 73-89 36%     5 - 3 -5.2 +8.8 -14.9
  Dec 03, 2024 44   BYU W 83-64 47%     6 - 3 +27.0 +23.5 +6.1
  Dec 07, 2024 98   @ Rhode Island L 63-69 45%     6 - 4 +2.4 -3.7 +5.9
  Dec 10, 2024 88   @ DePaul W 70-63 OT 42%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +16.1 -3.6 +19.2
  Dec 14, 2024 89   St. Bonaventure L 70-74 54%     7 - 5 +2.1 +10.5 -8.9
  Dec 20, 2024 15   St. John's L 67-72 31%    
  Dec 31, 2024 13   Marquette L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 05, 2025 9   @ Connecticut L 62-75 11%    
  Jan 08, 2025 74   Butler W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 117   Seton Hall W 62-55 75%    
  Jan 14, 2025 36   @ Creighton L 65-73 23%    
  Jan 17, 2025 48   @ Villanova L 63-69 28%    
  Jan 25, 2025 90   Georgetown W 70-66 65%    
  Jan 28, 2025 117   @ Seton Hall W 59-58 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 15   @ St. John's L 64-75 16%    
  Feb 05, 2025 36   Creighton L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 74   @ Butler L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 12, 2025 53   Xavier W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 48   Villanova L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 19, 2025 90   @ Georgetown L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 25, 2025 13   @ Marquette L 64-75 16%    
  Mar 01, 2025 9   Connecticut L 65-72 26%    
  Mar 05, 2025 88   DePaul W 70-66 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 53   @ Xavier L 66-72 30%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.3 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.6 4.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.1 5.7 5.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 14.5 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 6.2 5.5 1.4 0.1 15.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.7 5.2 1.3 0.1 14.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.0 4.1 1.2 0.1 12.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.4 2.6 0.9 0.1 9.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.5 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.5 6.7 10.2 13.2 14.8 14.3 12.2 9.5 6.4 3.9 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 98.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 59.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 40.2% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 24.0% 76.0% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.3% 99.3% 11.2% 88.2% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
15-5 0.9% 90.2% 13.5% 76.6% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 88.6%
14-6 1.9% 72.0% 7.9% 64.1% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 69.6%
13-7 3.9% 52.1% 6.3% 45.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.9 48.8%
12-8 6.4% 28.8% 3.9% 24.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.1 4.6 25.9%
11-9 9.5% 11.2% 2.8% 8.3% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 8.4 8.6%
10-10 12.2% 3.0% 1.7% 1.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 11.9 1.3%
9-11 14.3% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 11.3 0.1 0.1 14.1 0.0%
8-12 14.8% 0.6% 0.6% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.7
7-13 13.2% 0.3% 0.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.1
6-14 10.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 10.2
5-15 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.7
4-16 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.5
3-17 1.5% 1.5
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 8.3% 1.6% 6.6% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.7 6.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%