Big East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
14 St. John's 99.9%   4   23 - 4 14 - 2 26 - 5 17 - 3 +17.9      +4.7 72 +13.2 1 72.8 64 +18.3 11 +21.1 1
29 Marquette 99.4%   7   20 - 7 11 - 5 22 - 9 13 - 7 +14.7      +7.3 31 +7.5 25 69.1 152 +16.3 20 +14.3 4
31 Creighton 96.8%   8   18 - 8 11 - 4 22 - 9 15 - 5 +14.5      +7.0 38 +7.5 24 69.5 136 +14.8 31 +17.5 2
32 Connecticut 97.5%   8   18 - 8 10 - 5 21 - 10 13 - 7 +14.1      +9.8 14 +4.4 67 62.3 330 +13.6 35 +14.4 3
42 Xavier 43.1%   17 - 10 9 - 7 20 - 11 12 - 8 +12.0      +5.7 54 +6.2 41 71.9 78 +11.6 49 +12.4 5
43 Villanova 30.2%   16 - 12 9 - 8 18 - 13 11 - 9 +11.8      +8.8 18 +3.0 90 60.2 355 +9.1 63 +11.6 6
66 Butler 1.4%   12 - 14 5 - 10 14 - 17 7 - 13 +8.3      +6.3 42 +2.0 111 69.3 141 +6.0 86 +4.8 9
73 Georgetown 3.3%   16 - 10 7 - 8 18 - 13 9 - 11 +7.8      +1.4 127 +6.4 37 69.3 140 +8.2 74 +9.0 7
79 Providence 0.8%   12 - 15 6 - 10 14 - 17 8 - 12 +7.3      +5.2 62 +2.1 109 66.4 226 +5.0 95 +7.0 8
120 DePaul 0.1%   11 - 16 2 - 14 12 - 19 3 - 17 +2.6      +1.1 145 +1.5 132 68.3 180 +2.0 138 -1.3 11
167 Seton Hall 0.0%   7 - 19 2 - 13 8 - 23 3 - 17 -0.4      -3.2 263 +2.9 96 62.1 333 -2.4 206 -1.2 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
St. John's 1.0 98.6 1.3 0.1
Marquette 3.2 0.8 19.1 46.4 30.1 3.2 0.4
Creighton 2.0 9.6 80.5 8.5 1.2 0.2 0.0
Connecticut 3.3 1.0 15.8 43.7 34.4 4.5 0.6 0.0
Xavier 4.8 0.5 5.7 25.0 49.2 18.9 0.7 0.0
Villanova 5.4 0.5 10.6 42.0 44.2 2.7 0.0
Butler 8.4 0.1 0.6 13.0 32.4 53.9 0.1
Georgetown 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.9 10.5 73.1 11.4 1.4
Providence 7.9 0.1 1.1 26.5 55.6 16.8
DePaul 10.1 0.1 1.7 81.3 16.9
Seton Hall 10.5 0.1 47.8 52.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
St. John's 17 - 3 0.1 4.6 23.1 44.7 27.5
Marquette 13 - 7 2.1 15.3 34.6 36.3 11.7
Creighton 15 - 5 0.1 0.7 5.7 22.8 43.9 26.8
Connecticut 13 - 7 0.2 3.4 17.3 37.6 33.2 8.3
Xavier 12 - 8 1.2 10.9 31.4 38.6 17.9
Villanova 11 - 9 2.8 19.3 44.7 33.2
Butler 7 - 13 10.5 30.5 33.9 19.0 5.7 0.5
Georgetown 9 - 11 10.9 31.9 34.5 17.5 4.7 0.6
Providence 8 - 12 10.5 41.3 35.4 11.5 1.4
DePaul 3 - 17 25.5 42.5 25.1 6.5 0.4
Seton Hall 3 - 17 53.4 35.3 10.0 1.3 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
St. John's 98.6% 89.7 7.9 1.0 0.0
Marquette 0.8% 0.4 0.5 0.0
Creighton 9.6% 1.3 7.2 1.0 0.0
Connecticut 1.0% 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0
Xavier
Villanova
Butler
Georgetown
Providence
DePaul
Seton Hall


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
St. John's 99.9% 36.9% 63.0% 4   4.9 14.8 20.8 23.5 15.9 11.2 6.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 99.8%
Marquette 99.4% 16.0% 83.4% 7   0.0 0.4 2.3 5.5 14.7 23.9 26.1 17.2 7.6 1.6 0.1 0.6 99.3%
Creighton 96.8% 18.3% 78.5% 8   0.0 0.3 1.8 3.6 6.5 12.0 23.2 25.6 17.1 6.1 0.6 3.2 96.1%
Connecticut 97.5% 14.0% 83.4% 8   0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 4.4 11.3 22.3 30.0 19.2 6.5 0.8 2.5 97.0%
Xavier 43.1% 5.9% 37.2% 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 4.9 12.4 21.0 1.3 56.9 39.5%
Villanova 30.2% 5.7% 24.5% 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.3 8.8 15.4 1.1 69.8 26.0%
Butler 1.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.6 0.4%
Georgetown 3.3% 1.2% 2.1% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 0.5 96.7 2.1%
Providence 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.2 0.1%
DePaul 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Seton Hall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
St. John's 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 88.7% 52.7% 24.7% 11.5% 4.8% 1.9%
Marquette 99.4% 0.1% 99.4% 64.3% 24.0% 8.6% 2.9% 0.9% 0.4%
Creighton 96.8% 0.4% 96.6% 57.0% 18.6% 7.3% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Connecticut 97.5% 0.4% 97.2% 54.8% 15.7% 5.5% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
Xavier 43.1% 20.3% 33.4% 13.8% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Villanova 30.2% 14.4% 23.5% 9.3% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Butler 1.4% 0.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 3.3% 1.8% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Providence 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seton Hall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.7 0.0 1.5 37.2 48.7 12.2 0.3
1st Round 100.0% 4.5 0.0 2.4 47.8 42.8 6.9 0.1
2nd Round 99.6% 2.9 0.4 6.0 27.2 40.9 21.9 3.5 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 78.7% 1.2 21.3 47.0 25.7 5.4 0.6 0.0
Elite Eight 42.0% 0.5 58.0 36.4 5.4 0.3 0.0
Final Four 18.2% 0.2 81.9 17.5 0.7 0.0
Final Game 7.0% 0.1 93.0 6.9 0.0
Champion 2.6% 0.0 97.4 2.6