Preseason Rankings
Big East
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Connecticut 96.9%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 5 16 - 4 +20.2      +10.6 3 +9.6 3 62.8 331 0.0 1 0.0 1
13 Creighton 79.3%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 13 - 7 +14.5      +8.7 12 +5.8 25 66.8 234 0.0 1 0.0 1
18 St. John's 69.4%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 9 +12.8      +7.4 20 +5.4 34 71.8 83 0.0 1 0.0 1
26 Marquette 64.2%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 11 - 9 +12.1      +6.5 31 +5.6 28 71.3 92 0.0 1 0.0 1
28 Xavier 56.1%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 9 +11.8      +7.0 24 +4.7 42 76.3 27 0.0 1 0.0 1
37 Villanova 52.3%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +11.1      +4.5 62 +6.6 17 60.8 350 0.0 1 0.0 1
48 Providence 42.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 10 +9.8      +4.1 73 +5.8 26 68.4 175 0.0 1 0.0 1
68 Seton Hall 33.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 12 +8.3      +2.7 100 +5.5 31 66.5 243 0.0 1 0.0 1
72 Butler 30.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 12 +7.7      +4.4 65 +3.4 83 70.4 117 0.0 1 0.0 1
101 Georgetown 13.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 7 - 13 +5.4      +5.1 49 +0.4 155 66.9 228 0.0 1 0.0 1
122 DePaul 5.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 18 5 - 15 +2.6      +2.3 111 +0.3 158 68.3 181 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 1.9 58.8 19.0 9.5 5.3 3.2 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0
Creighton 3.8 17.5 20.5 16.3 12.7 10.0 7.7 6.0 4.2 2.7 1.7 0.6
St. John's 4.7 10.3 14.5 14.4 13.3 11.8 10.1 8.4 7.0 5.0 3.5 1.7
Marquette 4.9 8.5 13.4 14.0 13.0 12.0 10.9 9.3 7.3 5.7 3.8 2.0
Xavier 5.1 7.9 12.2 13.3 12.9 12.1 11.3 9.7 8.1 6.1 4.2 2.1
Villanova 5.4 6.0 10.6 11.8 12.5 12.1 11.8 10.3 9.2 7.5 5.5 2.8
Providence 6.0 4.0 7.6 9.9 10.9 11.6 11.8 11.8 10.8 9.7 7.5 4.6
Seton Hall 6.8 2.2 4.9 7.0 8.5 10.2 11.1 12.1 12.9 12.3 11.2 7.7
Butler 7.0 1.9 4.3 6.1 7.8 9.4 10.5 11.9 13.1 13.7 12.4 9.0
Georgetown 8.1 0.8 1.9 3.0 4.5 6.2 7.9 10.2 12.9 15.8 19.1 17.5
DePaul 9.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.1 3.3 4.6 7.2 9.9 14.3 21.4 34.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.2 4.5 6.8 8.9 11.5 14.2 15.1 14.5 11.5 5.5
Creighton 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.3 2.0 3.0 4.5 6.4 7.8 9.5 10.8 11.4 11.0 10.2 8.6 6.2 4.0 1.8 0.5
St. John's 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.8 5.5 7.0 8.6 9.7 10.7 10.7 10.2 9.0 7.5 5.7 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.2
Marquette 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.7 4.3 5.9 7.6 9.2 10.4 10.7 10.5 10.2 8.4 6.8 4.9 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.1
Xavier 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.1 4.7 6.2 8.2 9.6 10.5 10.8 10.5 9.7 7.9 6.2 4.3 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1
Villanova 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.9 5.8 7.6 8.7 10.0 10.9 10.5 10.0 8.8 6.9 5.4 3.4 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
Providence 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.8 5.4 7.3 8.8 10.1 10.6 10.5 10.1 8.6 7.4 5.4 3.7 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Seton Hall 8 - 12 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.9 5.7 7.7 9.4 10.6 10.8 10.7 9.8 8.4 6.9 5.1 3.5 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Butler 8 - 12 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.5 6.6 8.6 9.9 10.9 11.0 10.4 9.2 7.8 6.0 4.5 2.9 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 7 - 13 0.9 2.9 5.5 8.2 10.4 11.6 11.6 11.4 9.7 8.1 6.7 4.8 3.3 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
DePaul 5 - 15 2.8 6.9 10.5 12.9 13.4 12.6 10.8 9.1 7.1 5.1 3.4 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Connecticut 58.8% 47.9 9.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Creighton 17.5% 11.5 5.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. John's 10.3% 6.3 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marquette 8.5% 5.2 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Xavier 7.9% 4.8 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Villanova 6.0% 3.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Providence 4.0% 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Seton Hall 2.2% 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Butler 1.9% 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
DePaul 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Connecticut 96.9% 42.4% 54.5% 1   37.9 21.3 11.5 7.9 5.4 4.2 3.1 2.1 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 94.6%
Creighton 79.3% 14.7% 64.6% 4   10.0 10.4 10.4 9.0 8.2 7.6 6.3 5.7 4.2 3.4 3.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.7 75.7%
St. John's 69.4% 9.8% 59.6% 5   5.4 6.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.5 6.5 5.7 5.0 4.2 4.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.6 66.1%
Marquette 64.2% 8.1% 56.1% 5   4.1 5.8 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.4 6.4 5.3 4.6 4.1 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.8 61.1%
Xavier 56.1% 7.5% 48.6% 10   2.2 3.5 4.4 4.5 5.1 5.0 6.6 6.7 6.6 5.6 5.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.9 52.5%
Villanova 52.3% 6.3% 46.0% 10   1.8 2.9 3.8 4.0 4.7 5.0 6.1 6.4 6.3 5.5 4.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.7 49.1%
Providence 42.8% 4.5% 38.3% 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.9 5.4 5.2 5.1 4.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.2 40.1%
Seton Hall 33.5% 2.8% 30.7% 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.2 4.1 4.9 6.9 1.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.5 31.6%
Butler 30.0% 2.5% 27.5% 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.5 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.0 28.2%
Georgetown 13.9% 1.1% 12.8% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.1 13.0%
DePaul 5.4% 0.4% 5.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.6 5.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 96.9% 0.7% 96.5% 88.0% 65.8% 44.9% 28.8% 18.0% 10.9%
Creighton 79.3% 3.4% 77.7% 59.2% 34.0% 17.7% 9.1% 4.7% 2.2%
St. John's 69.4% 4.3% 67.2% 47.5% 24.5% 11.7% 5.4% 2.4% 1.1%
Marquette 64.2% 4.4% 62.0% 42.6% 21.5% 10.0% 4.5% 2.0% 0.8%
Xavier 56.1% 4.7% 53.8% 35.2% 16.6% 7.6% 3.5% 1.5% 0.7%
Villanova 52.3% 4.7% 49.8% 31.2% 14.1% 6.4% 2.8% 1.2% 0.5%
Providence 42.8% 4.7% 40.3% 24.5% 10.3% 4.6% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3%
Seton Hall 33.5% 7.8% 29.5% 16.0% 6.2% 2.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
Butler 30.0% 3.9% 27.8% 15.6% 6.0% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Georgetown 13.9% 2.4% 12.6% 6.4% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
DePaul 5.4% 1.1% 4.8% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.4 0.0 0.3 3.2 15.8 33.0 31.6 13.4 2.6 0.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 5.2 0.0 0.5 4.7 20.0 35.0 27.9 10.1 1.6 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 99.9% 3.7 0.1 2.0 12.5 29.4 32.9 17.6 4.9 0.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 94.9% 2.0 5.1 26.2 39.0 22.5 6.4 0.8 0.0
Elite Eight 75.0% 1.1 25.0 46.5 23.8 4.4 0.3 0.0
Final Four 50.0% 0.6 50.0 42.2 7.4 0.4 0.0
Final Game 29.8% 0.3 70.2 28.3 1.5
Champion 16.8% 0.2 83.2 16.8