Big East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
16 St. John's 96.5%   6   16 - 3 7 - 1 24 - 7 15 - 5 +16.5      +5.8 48 +10.7 6 73.3 66 +15.8 23 +19.8 1
20 Marquette 99.6%   5   15 - 3 6 - 1 24 - 7 15 - 5 +15.5      +7.6 27 +7.9 18 70.6 123 +19.1 10 +18.4 2
24 Connecticut 94.9%   7   13 - 5 5 - 2 22 - 9 14 - 6 +15.0      +12.1 6 +3.0 91 62.8 325 +13.0 37 +14.3 4
33 Creighton 83.2%   8   12 - 6 5 - 2 20 - 11 13 - 7 +12.9      +6.5 39 +6.4 36 69.7 150 +13.7 31 +17.5 3
41 Xavier 43.4%   12 - 7 4 - 4 19 - 12 11 - 9 +11.7      +4.9 56 +6.8 25 71.6 98 +10.5 54 +11.2 6
42 Villanova 39.4%   12 - 7 5 - 3 19 - 12 12 - 8 +11.6      +9.9 13 +1.7 124 60.8 348 +8.2 69 +13.3 5
72 Georgetown 6.7%   12 - 6 3 - 4 17 - 14 8 - 12 +7.7      +1.3 141 +6.4 37 68.6 182 +7.8 74 +8.6 7
81 Providence 1.8%   9 - 10 3 - 5 14 - 17 8 - 12 +7.1      +4.0 76 +3.1 90 65.4 256 +4.0 109 +7.3 8
84 Butler 2.1%   8 - 10 1 - 6 13 - 18 6 - 14 +6.7      +4.7 60 +2.1 111 68.8 175 +4.5 103 -0.8 10
106 DePaul 0.2%   10 - 9 1 - 7 13 - 18 4 - 16 +3.5      +3.3 94 +0.2 164 68.5 184 +3.6 113 -0.7 9
132 Seton Hall 0.1%   6 - 12 1 - 6 9 - 22 4 - 16 +1.8      -0.6 193 +2.5 102 62.4 334 -2.5 215 -1.3 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
St. John's 1.8 53.6 24.0 12.9 6.3 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
Marquette 2.3 37.4 27.0 17.8 10.7 5.3 1.6 0.3 0.0
Connecticut 3.0 18.2 23.2 23.5 19.3 10.2 4.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
Creighton 3.3 13.4 21.8 23.2 20.3 12.2 7.1 1.6 0.3 0.0
Xavier 5.1 1.0 4.4 10.0 16.0 23.9 28.3 11.5 4.0 1.0 0.1
Villanova 4.6 3.3 7.9 14.0 19.3 24.9 19.6 8.1 2.5 0.4 0.1
Georgetown 7.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.4 8.1 17.2 32.0 23.2 11.0 2.6 0.5
Providence 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.9 13.3 27.7 31.7 15.2 3.9 0.7
Butler 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 4.4 13.7 23.6 32.6 16.9 7.0
DePaul 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 9.4 21.9 39.5 26.3
Seton Hall 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 5.3 14.6 34.4 44.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
St. John's 15 - 5 0.0 0.5 1.1 4.0 9.2 15.7 21.1 22.0 16.3 8.5 1.7
Marquette 15 - 5 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.6 7.7 13.8 18.9 20.7 17.8 10.8 4.3 1.0
Connecticut 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.4 7.8 14.2 20.0 21.5 17.3 10.1 3.6 0.8
Creighton 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 4.6 9.8 16.2 20.0 19.5 15.5 8.3 3.0 0.6
Xavier 11 - 9 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.0 11.8 18.1 21.4 18.8 12.5 6.1 2.0 0.3
Villanova 12 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 8.3 14.2 18.2 21.0 16.5 10.4 4.6 1.2 0.2
Georgetown 8 - 12 0.2 1.3 4.6 9.6 16.9 19.7 18.3 14.5 8.5 4.3 1.8 0.3 0.1
Providence 8 - 12 0.4 2.5 7.7 14.0 19.5 20.5 16.9 11.0 4.9 1.9 0.6 0.1
Butler 6 - 14 0.3 2.1 5.8 11.8 18.3 20.7 16.9 12.6 7.1 3.0 1.2 0.2 0.0
DePaul 4 - 16 2.2 10.2 19.5 23.3 21.5 13.3 6.8 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Seton Hall 4 - 16 5.9 17.1 24.6 23.0 15.8 8.4 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
St. John's 53.6% 37.8 12.5 2.8 0.4 0.1
Marquette 37.4% 23.8 10.6 2.5 0.4 0.1
Connecticut 18.2% 9.0 6.4 2.3 0.4 0.0
Creighton 13.4% 5.8 5.4 1.8 0.4 0.1
Xavier 1.0% 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Villanova 3.3% 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
Georgetown 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Providence 0.0% 0.0
Butler
DePaul
Seton Hall


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
St. John's 96.5% 28.8% 67.7% 6   2.4 5.2 9.0 13.9 14.6 14.5 14.8 10.1 6.7 3.9 1.4 0.0 3.5 95.1%
Marquette 99.6% 22.9% 76.7% 5   2.5 7.5 14.4 17.8 19.2 16.9 12.1 5.9 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.4 99.5%
Connecticut 94.9% 19.5% 75.4% 7   0.7 1.7 4.2 7.5 11.6 15.8 18.6 16.7 10.7 5.6 1.7 0.0 5.1 93.7%
Creighton 83.2% 11.8% 71.4% 8   0.1 0.4 1.2 2.3 4.7 7.6 14.0 17.8 16.3 12.4 6.2 0.2 16.9 80.9%
Xavier 43.4% 6.5% 36.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.8 5.5 7.9 11.9 12.1 0.7 56.7 39.4%
Villanova 39.4% 7.3% 32.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.5 5.6 7.9 11.2 9.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 60.6 34.6%
Georgetown 6.7% 1.3% 5.4% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.8 3.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 93.3 5.5%
Providence 1.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 98.2 0.8%
Butler 2.1% 0.8% 1.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 97.9 1.4%
DePaul 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Seton Hall 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
St. John's 96.5% 1.6% 95.9% 74.1% 37.6% 17.3% 7.5% 3.1% 1.3%
Marquette 99.6% 0.3% 99.4% 77.1% 39.7% 15.8% 6.5% 2.4% 0.9%
Connecticut 94.9% 1.8% 94.0% 63.6% 25.8% 10.9% 4.4% 1.7% 0.6%
Creighton 83.2% 6.5% 80.0% 43.4% 13.4% 4.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
Xavier 43.4% 12.5% 37.5% 17.8% 4.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Villanova 39.4% 9.7% 34.5% 16.1% 4.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Georgetown 6.7% 3.4% 4.8% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Providence 1.8% 0.6% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Butler 2.1% 0.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seton Hall 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.7 0.1 5.1 35.8 45.6 12.7 0.7
1st Round 100.0% 4.5 0.3 7.7 42.8 40.9 8.1 0.3
2nd Round 99.6% 2.9 0.4 5.8 25.3 40.2 24.1 4.0 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 80.9% 1.3 19.1 44.3 29.0 6.8 0.7 0.0
Elite Eight 44.5% 0.5 55.5 37.3 6.8 0.4 0.0
Final Four 19.9% 0.2 80.1 18.9 1.0 0.0
Final Game 7.8% 0.1 92.2 7.7 0.1
Champion 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9