Big East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Connecticut 97.5%   2   4 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 5 16 - 4 +20.3      +10.5 7 +9.8 4 65.1 297 -0.9 200 0.0 1
15 Marquette 92.5%   4   5 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 9 13 - 7 +14.7      +7.0 31 +7.6 11 71.3 115 +22.8 3 0.0 1
16 St. John's 83.7%   5   4 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 8 13 - 7 +14.5      +8.4 15 +6.1 31 71.8 106 +13.0 32 0.0 1
17 Creighton 78.5%   7   4 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 7 +14.3      +8.3 16 +6.0 34 69.9 160 +5.3 105 0.0 1
36 Xavier 59.7%   10   5 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 11 - 9 +11.7      +6.8 35 +4.9 52 72.3 92 +10.1 49 0.0 1
69 Villanova 13.0%   3 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 16 9 - 11 +8.0      +5.0 53 +3.1 84 65.5 284 -3.8 237 0.0 1
77 Providence 18.2%   5 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 12 +7.4      +1.3 135 +6.1 32 63.6 325 +3.2 135 0.0 1
85 Butler 13.4%   3 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 16 8 - 12 +6.6      +3.7 78 +3.0 89 70.4 145 +3.1 137 0.0 1
88 Seton Hall 7.8%   2 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 13 +6.0      -2.2 235 +8.2 7 59.6 359 -3.6 233 0.0 1
110 DePaul 3.9%   5 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 6 - 14 +4.0      +3.3 92 +0.6 148 68.3 215 +4.3 121 0.0 1
116 Georgetown 2.8%   3 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 17 6 - 14 +3.6      +3.6 79 0.0 170 66.9 256 +2.1 157 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 1.7 63.6 19.8 8.7 4.4 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marquette 3.4 15.8 23.7 20.2 15.4 10.7 6.5 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2
St. John's 3.6 14.5 21.5 19.5 15.7 11.2 7.5 4.7 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.3
Creighton 3.6 15.2 21.3 19.5 15.8 11.2 7.0 4.8 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.3
Xavier 4.8 5.7 11.5 15.2 16.5 16.2 12.8 8.8 6.1 3.9 2.3 1.1
Villanova 6.6 1.2 3.4 6.1 9.5 12.3 14.8 15.1 13.2 11.2 8.3 4.9
Providence 7.0 0.8 2.7 5.2 8.3 11.0 13.6 14.7 14.4 12.5 10.3 6.5
Butler 7.4 0.6 2.0 4.2 6.6 9.7 12.4 13.8 14.6 14.3 12.3 9.5
Seton Hall 7.7 0.5 1.6 3.3 5.5 8.5 11.3 13.4 14.9 14.8 14.6 11.5
DePaul 8.5 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.9 5.1 7.8 10.9 13.8 16.6 19.5 21.2
Georgetown 8.8 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.3 6.8 9.7 12.8 16.3 20.7 25.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.3 5.4 8.3 12.1 15.7 17.3 16.8 12.1 5.5
Marquette 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.0 4.8 7.1 9.6 11.7 13.5 13.6 12.3 9.7 6.6 3.5 1.2 0.3
St. John's 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.7 5.6 7.8 10.0 11.9 13.1 12.7 11.6 8.6 5.8 3.1 1.2 0.3
Creighton 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.6 5.5 7.8 9.9 11.9 13.0 12.8 11.5 8.8 6.1 3.3 1.3 0.3
Xavier 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.3 5.2 7.5 9.9 11.8 13.1 12.5 11.1 8.7 6.3 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Villanova 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.4 4.4 6.9 9.8 11.6 12.6 12.8 11.5 9.5 6.9 4.8 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Providence 8 - 12 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 5.7 8.1 10.7 12.3 13.0 11.9 10.5 8.4 6.1 4.0 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Butler 8 - 12 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.5 7.3 9.6 11.7 12.5 12.4 11.3 9.4 7.1 4.8 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Seton Hall 7 - 13 0.2 1.1 3.0 5.7 8.3 10.8 12.5 13.0 11.9 10.5 8.3 5.9 4.1 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
DePaul 6 - 14 0.7 2.7 5.9 9.2 12.2 13.5 13.4 12.3 10.2 7.7 5.2 3.2 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 6 - 14 1.0 3.5 7.3 10.6 13.5 13.9 13.2 11.2 9.3 6.7 4.3 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Connecticut 63.6% 51.6 10.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marquette 15.8% 9.7 5.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. John's 14.5% 8.9 4.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Creighton 15.2% 9.4 4.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Xavier 5.7% 3.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Villanova 1.2% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Providence 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Butler 0.6% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Seton Hall 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
DePaul 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Connecticut 97.5% 45.4% 52.1% 2   26.9 20.2 13.9 11.2 7.7 5.7 4.6 3.3 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.5 95.5%
Marquette 92.5% 14.0% 78.4% 4   7.4 10.8 13.2 13.1 12.1 10.7 7.9 5.9 4.7 3.4 2.8 0.3 0.0 7.5 91.2%
St. John's 83.7% 13.8% 69.9% 5   5.3 7.1 9.0 9.9 9.5 9.5 8.5 7.4 6.9 5.8 4.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.3 81.1%
Creighton 78.5% 13.5% 65.0% 7   4.2 6.3 7.9 8.7 8.9 8.6 8.6 8.1 6.7 5.6 4.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.5 75.1%
Xavier 59.7% 6.8% 52.9% 10   0.8 1.7 2.9 4.2 5.3 6.3 6.9 7.6 8.0 8.3 7.0 0.8 0.0 40.3 56.7%
Villanova 13.0% 2.0% 11.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.0 2.4 2.7 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.0 11.3%
Providence 18.2% 1.6% 16.7% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.7 2.3 3.2 3.9 4.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.8 16.9%
Butler 13.4% 1.3% 12.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.5 2.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.6 12.3%
Seton Hall 7.8% 1.0% 6.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.2 6.9%
DePaul 3.9% 0.4% 3.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.1 3.6%
Georgetown 2.8% 0.3% 2.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.2 2.5%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 97.5% 0.5% 97.3% 88.4% 64.8% 43.0% 26.7% 15.8% 9.1%
Marquette 92.5% 2.8% 91.1% 68.6% 36.6% 16.6% 7.3% 3.0% 1.3%
St. John's 83.7% 4.1% 81.7% 58.9% 30.4% 14.5% 6.6% 2.9% 1.3%
Creighton 78.5% 4.1% 76.6% 55.1% 28.0% 13.2% 6.1% 2.7% 1.2%
Xavier 59.7% 6.5% 56.5% 33.9% 13.4% 5.5% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%
Villanova 13.0% 2.5% 11.9% 5.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Providence 18.2% 4.0% 16.2% 7.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Butler 13.4% 3.0% 11.9% 5.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Seton Hall 7.8% 2.9% 6.3% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 3.9% 1.2% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 2.8% 0.9% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.7 0.5 7.5 32.3 42.1 15.6 1.9 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 4.6 0.0 0.7 10.1 36.9 39.0 12.0 1.2 0.0
2nd Round 99.9% 3.3 0.1 2.9 17.6 37.7 31.5 9.3 0.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 93.3% 1.8 6.7 31.5 40.3 18.1 3.2 0.2
Elite Eight 70.1% 1.0 29.9 48.0 19.4 2.6 0.1
Final Four 43.8% 0.5 56.2 38.5 5.2 0.2
Final Game 24.5% 0.3 75.5 23.6 0.8
Champion 13.1% 0.1 86.9 13.1