Villanova
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#43
Expected Predictive Rating+9.1#63
Pace60.2#355
Improvement+3.5#45

Offense
Total Offense+8.8#18
First Shot+9.0#16
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#202
Layup/Dunks-1.5#236
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#67
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.2#4
Freethrows+0.4#153
Improvement-1.6#263

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#90
First Shot+2.0#106
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#100
Layups/Dunks+3.9#51
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#330
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#251
Freethrows+1.7#73
Improvement+5.2#8
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.2% 33.1% 17.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.0% 28.8% 14.0%
Average Seed 10.4 10.3 10.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.2% 100.0% 85.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four14.4% 15.5% 9.7%
First Round23.5% 26.0% 12.9%
Second Round9.3% 10.3% 4.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.3% 2.5% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seton Hall (Away) - 81.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 7
Quad 26 - 38 - 11
Quad 35 - 213 - 13
Quad 46 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 298   Lafayette W 75-63 97%     1 - 0 +1.8 +1.4 +0.6
  Nov 06, 2024 275   Columbia L 80-90 96%     1 - 1 -18.9 +2.9 -22.2
  Nov 08, 2024 346   NJIT W 91-54 99%     2 - 1 +21.8 +27.9 -0.2
  Nov 12, 2024 78   @ Saint Joseph's L 76-83 57%     2 - 2 +2.9 +4.0 -0.6
  Nov 15, 2024 93   Virginia L 60-70 74%     2 - 3 -4.8 -3.8 -2.2
  Nov 19, 2024 260   Penn W 93-49 96%     3 - 3 +36.1 +22.2 +17.4
  Nov 24, 2024 13   Maryland L 75-76 28%     3 - 4 +17.0 +20.4 -3.5
  Nov 27, 2024 313   Rider W 72-48 97%     4 - 4 +12.4 +6.4 +10.3
  Dec 03, 2024 46   Cincinnati W 68-60 62%     5 - 4 +16.7 +15.5 +2.9
  Dec 07, 2024 155   Temple W 94-65 85%     6 - 4 +29.5 +29.3 +3.3
  Dec 11, 2024 318   Fairleigh Dickinson W 86-72 98%     7 - 4 +2.2 +17.3 -13.7
  Dec 17, 2024 167   Seton Hall W 79-67 91%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +9.1 +13.6 -3.6
  Dec 21, 2024 31   @ Creighton L 79-86 31%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +10.0 +25.2 -16.1
  Jan 01, 2025 66   @ Butler W 73-65 54%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +18.9 +12.6 +7.3
  Jan 04, 2025 120   DePaul W 100-56 86%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +44.0 +34.6 +12.6
  Jan 08, 2025 32   Connecticut W 68-66 51%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +13.6 +11.6 +2.4
  Jan 11, 2025 14   @ St. John's L 68-80 21%     11 - 6 4 - 2 +8.4 +14.5 -7.0
  Jan 14, 2025 42   @ Xavier L 63-69 40%     11 - 7 4 - 3 +8.5 +3.1 +4.9
  Jan 17, 2025 79   Providence W 75-73 75%     12 - 7 5 - 3 +6.7 +6.5 +0.3
  Jan 20, 2025 73   Georgetown L 63-64 74%     12 - 8 5 - 4 +4.2 +3.5 +0.6
  Jan 24, 2025 29   @ Marquette L 74-87 30%     12 - 9 5 - 5 +4.3 +10.0 -5.8
  Feb 01, 2025 31   Creighton L 60-62 49%     12 - 10 5 - 6 +9.9 -4.5 +14.4
  Feb 05, 2025 120   @ DePaul W 59-49 74%     13 - 10 6 - 6 +15.1 -1.8 +18.5
  Feb 09, 2025 42   Xavier W 80-68 59%     14 - 10 7 - 6 +21.4 +19.4 +3.1
  Feb 12, 2025 14   St. John's W 73-71 37%     15 - 10 8 - 6 +17.3 +22.2 -4.6
  Feb 15, 2025 79   @ Providence L 62-75 58%     15 - 11 8 - 7 -3.2 -1.4 -3.1
  Feb 18, 2025 32   @ Connecticut L 59-66 32%     15 - 12 8 - 8 +9.7 +1.6 +6.9
  Feb 21, 2025 29   Marquette W 81-66 48%     16 - 12 9 - 8 +27.2 +28.5 +1.3
  Feb 26, 2025 167   @ Seton Hall W 70-60 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 66   Butler W 76-70 73%    
  Mar 04, 2025 73   @ Georgetown W 69-68 54%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 9.3 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 2.1 20.3 19.6 42.0 5th
6th 1.8 15.5 23.0 3.9 44.2 6th
7th 1.0 1.6 0.1 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 2.8 19.3 44.7 33.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 33.2% 46.8% 7.2% 39.6% 10.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 5.1 6.7 0.3 17.7 42.7%
11-9 44.7% 27.0% 5.4% 21.6% 10.6 0.2 1.0 3.2 7.1 0.6 32.6 22.8%
10-10 19.3% 12.5% 4.2% 8.3% 10.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 0.2 16.9 8.7%
9-11 2.8% 6.0% 3.5% 2.5% 11.1 0.2 0.0 2.7 2.6%
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 30.2% 5.7% 24.5% 10.4 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.3 8.8 15.4 1.1 69.8 26.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 100.0% 8.6 2.5 16.3 28.8 31.7 17.9 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.2% 70.8% 9.8 0.9 3.5 18.9 32.4 14.8 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.8% 51.5% 10.3 0.9 6.3 21.0 23.1 0.2
Lose Out 0.7%