Penn
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#260
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#291
Pace66.7#219
Improvement+6.9#4

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#205
First Shot-0.9#208
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#196
Layup/Dunks+0.6#158
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#361
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#75
Freethrows-0.6#213
Improvement+3.1#48

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#302
First Shot-4.2#309
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#199
Layups/Dunks-3.9#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#85
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#309
Freethrows+2.1#55
Improvement+3.8#25
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.4% 2.3% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.0% 3.6% 22.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Harvard (Home) - 59.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 13
Quad 48 - 68 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 346   @ NJIT W 58-57 68%     1 - 0 -9.1 -12.0 +3.0
  Nov 07, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-84 92%     2 - 0 -18.0 +5.0 -22.9
  Nov 12, 2024 298   @ Lafayette L 63-65 49%     2 - 1 -7.1 +3.0 -10.6
  Nov 15, 2024 78   Saint Joseph's L 69-86 17%     2 - 2 -12.2 +4.5 -17.9
  Nov 19, 2024 43   @ Villanova L 49-93 4%     2 - 3 -29.7 -15.5 -17.7
  Nov 29, 2024 283   Navy L 78-86 65%     2 - 4 -17.4 +0.7 -18.1
  Nov 30, 2024 209   Maine W 77-64 49%     3 - 4 +7.9 +10.4 -1.5
  Dec 01, 2024 175   Elon L 53-68 42%     3 - 5 -18.4 -13.3 -7.6
  Dec 07, 2024 195   Drexel L 47-60 37%     3 - 6 -14.9 -21.3 +5.3
  Dec 09, 2024 34   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 47-66 4%     3 - 7 -3.3 -13.2 +8.2
  Dec 20, 2024 313   Rider W 79-66 72%     4 - 7 +1.4 +10.8 -7.7
  Dec 22, 2024 75   @ George Mason L 53-85 8%     4 - 8 -21.9 -9.0 -13.5
  Dec 29, 2024 62   @ Penn St. L 66-86 7%     4 - 9 -8.9 -4.5 -3.6
  Jan 11, 2025 206   @ Dartmouth L 70-73 30%     4 - 10 0 - 1 -2.9 -0.6 -2.3
  Jan 18, 2025 164   Cornell L 76-86 40%     4 - 11 0 - 2 -12.7 -5.7 -6.4
  Jan 20, 2025 251   @ Harvard W 82-67 39%     5 - 11 1 - 2 +12.5 +16.2 -2.3
  Jan 25, 2025 275   Columbia W 93-78 63%     6 - 11 2 - 2 +6.1 +8.5 -3.1
  Jan 31, 2025 185   Brown L 79-88 45%     6 - 12 2 - 3 -13.0 +6.3 -19.5
  Feb 01, 2025 70   Yale L 61-90 15%     6 - 13 2 - 4 -23.5 -12.0 -11.1
  Feb 07, 2025 162   Princeton L 59-61 39%     6 - 14 2 - 5 -4.6 -9.9 +5.2
  Feb 14, 2025 70   @ Yale L 71-72 8%     6 - 15 2 - 6 +9.6 +9.2 +0.4
  Feb 15, 2025 185   @ Brown L 72-82 27%     6 - 16 2 - 7 -8.9 +3.4 -12.7
  Feb 21, 2025 206   Dartmouth W 88-75 49%     7 - 16 3 - 7 +8.0 +6.0 +0.7
  Feb 22, 2025 251   Harvard W 72-70 60%    
  Feb 28, 2025 164   @ Cornell L 77-85 22%    
  Mar 01, 2025 275   @ Columbia L 78-80 42%    
  Mar 08, 2025 162   @ Princeton L 68-76 22%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 4 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.6 3rd
4th 1.3 0.7 1.9 4th
5th 1.4 6.6 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 5.0 20.1 4.2 29.2 6th
7th 13.6 33.4 11.3 0.1 58.3 7th
8th 1.7 0.1 1.8 8th
Total 15.2 38.5 32.8 12.2 1.4 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6
7-7 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6
7-7 1.4% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.1 1.3
6-8 12.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.1
5-9 32.8% 32.8
4-10 38.5% 38.5
3-11 15.2% 15.2
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 21.6% 16.0 21.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%
Lose Out 15.2%