Penn
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#276
Expected Predictive Rating-8.0#298
Pace64.4#292
Improvement+2.8#46

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#218
First Shot-2.0#228
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#166
Layup/Dunks+1.3#136
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#120
Freethrows-0.4#206
Improvement+0.2#160

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#319
First Shot-3.4#290
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#272
Layups/Dunks-3.2#298
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#331
Freethrows+2.8#28
Improvement+2.6#27
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.6% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 1.5% 5.8% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 14.5% 22.0% 14.0%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.5% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 40.8% 31.6% 41.5%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
First Round0.7% 1.3% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 6.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 72 - 14
Quad 46 - 58 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 352   @ NJIT W 58-57 63%     1 - 0 -8.6 -11.4 +2.9
  Nov 07, 2024 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-84 84%     2 - 0 -13.9 +5.6 -19.6
  Nov 12, 2024 267   @ Lafayette L 63-65 36%     2 - 1 -4.6 +3.3 -8.3
  Nov 15, 2024 86   Saint Joseph's L 69-86 18%     2 - 2 -13.4 +3.7 -18.3
  Nov 19, 2024 48   @ Villanova L 49-93 4%     2 - 3 -30.5 -18.0 -16.1
  Nov 29, 2024 317   Navy L 78-86 70%     2 - 4 -19.8 -1.7 -18.1
  Nov 30, 2024 216   Maine W 77-64 48%     3 - 4 +7.1 +9.5 -1.3
  Dec 01, 2024 180   Elon L 53-68 41%     3 - 5 -19.0 -13.6 -7.8
  Dec 07, 2024 153   Drexel L 47-60 27%     3 - 6 -12.8 -21.4 +7.7
  Dec 09, 2024 60   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 47-66 5%     3 - 7 -6.8 -13.2 +4.7
  Dec 20, 2024 299   Rider W 79-66 66%     4 - 7 +2.5 +11.3 -7.1
  Dec 22, 2024 89   @ George Mason L 59-75 7%    
  Dec 29, 2024 32   @ Penn St. L 64-86 2%    
  Jan 11, 2025 279   @ Dartmouth L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 18, 2025 122   Cornell L 75-81 30%    
  Jan 20, 2025 244   @ Harvard L 67-72 33%    
  Jan 25, 2025 176   Columbia L 73-75 41%    
  Jan 31, 2025 160   Brown L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 99   Yale L 68-76 22%    
  Feb 07, 2025 111   Princeton L 69-76 27%    
  Feb 14, 2025 99   @ Yale L 65-79 10%    
  Feb 15, 2025 160   @ Brown L 64-73 21%    
  Feb 21, 2025 279   Dartmouth W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 22, 2025 244   Harvard W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 28, 2025 122   @ Cornell L 72-84 15%    
  Mar 01, 2025 176   @ Columbia L 70-78 23%    
  Mar 08, 2025 111   @ Princeton L 66-79 12%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 4 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 2.1 0.7 0.1 4.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 4.1 1.2 0.1 7.7 4th
5th 0.4 4.0 6.3 2.1 0.1 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 6.2 9.4 3.0 0.2 19.8 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 8.7 10.2 3.5 0.2 25.0 7th
8th 1.6 6.1 9.9 7.5 2.3 0.2 27.6 8th
Total 1.6 6.2 12.2 17.3 19.1 17.3 11.9 7.6 4.0 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-2 96.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
11-3 83.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
10-4 44.0% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1
9-5 10.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.0% 0.0
12-2 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-3 0.2% 10.7% 10.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
10-4 0.8% 11.2% 11.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
9-5 1.8% 8.1% 8.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.7
8-6 4.0% 7.2% 7.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 3.7
7-7 7.6% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.3
6-8 11.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.8
5-9 17.3% 17.3
4-10 19.1% 19.1
3-11 17.3% 17.3
2-12 12.2% 12.2
1-13 6.2% 6.2
0-14 1.6% 1.6
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%