Penn
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#265
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#286
Pace64.4#287
Improvement+4.6#21

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#219
First Shot-1.3#215
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#199
Layup/Dunks+0.6#151
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#361
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#78
Freethrows-0.7#224
Improvement+1.2#108

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#299
First Shot-4.2#309
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#202
Layups/Dunks-3.8#311
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#89
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#316
Freethrows+2.1#53
Improvement+3.4#31
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.2% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 12.6% 20.9% 5.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 35.5% 21.8% 47.5%
First Four0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
First Round0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Columbia (Home) - 46.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 31 - 72 - 13
Quad 47 - 59 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 356   @ NJIT W 58-57 69%     1 - 0 -9.9 -11.0 +1.2
  Nov 07, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-84 87%     2 - 0 -15.0 +5.2 -20.3
  Nov 12, 2024 277   @ Lafayette L 63-65 42%     2 - 1 -5.9 +3.1 -9.3
  Nov 15, 2024 84   Saint Joseph's L 69-86 17%     2 - 2 -12.5 +4.2 -17.9
  Nov 19, 2024 45   @ Villanova L 49-93 4%     2 - 3 -30.1 -16.8 -16.9
  Nov 29, 2024 292   Navy L 78-86 66%     2 - 4 -18.1 -1.0 -17.1
  Nov 30, 2024 201   Maine W 77-64 45%     3 - 4 +8.4 +10.8 -1.3
  Dec 01, 2024 158   Elon L 53-68 36%     3 - 5 -17.2 -12.8 -6.9
  Dec 07, 2024 187   Drexel L 47-60 33%     3 - 6 -14.2 -21.0 +5.9
  Dec 09, 2024 40   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 47-66 4%     3 - 7 -4.7 -13.0 +6.7
  Dec 20, 2024 294   Rider W 79-66 67%     4 - 7 +2.7 +11.7 -7.2
  Dec 22, 2024 77   @ George Mason L 53-85 8%     4 - 8 -22.0 -10.6 -12.0
  Dec 29, 2024 50   @ Penn St. L 66-86 5%     4 - 9 -6.6 -3.7 -2.2
  Jan 11, 2025 274   @ Dartmouth L 70-73 42%     4 - 10 0 - 1 -6.8 -3.3 -3.5
  Jan 18, 2025 143   Cornell L 76-86 33%     4 - 11 0 - 2 -11.2 -5.8 -4.9
  Jan 20, 2025 237   @ Harvard W 82-67 34%     5 - 11 1 - 2 +13.3 +17.1 -2.4
  Jan 25, 2025 203   Columbia L 75-76 47%    
  Jan 31, 2025 206   Brown L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 01, 2025 89   Yale L 68-78 19%    
  Feb 07, 2025 125   Princeton L 69-75 31%    
  Feb 14, 2025 89   @ Yale L 66-81 8%    
  Feb 15, 2025 206   @ Brown L 66-72 27%    
  Feb 21, 2025 274   Dartmouth W 74-71 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 237   Harvard W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 28, 2025 143   @ Cornell L 75-85 18%    
  Mar 01, 2025 203   @ Columbia L 72-78 26%    
  Mar 08, 2025 125   @ Princeton L 66-77 16%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 5 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 1.8 0.3 4.3 3rd
4th 0.4 4.6 4.6 1.0 0.1 10.7 4th
5th 0.6 7.2 7.5 1.2 0.0 16.6 5th
6th 0.6 8.0 11.6 2.1 0.0 22.3 6th
7th 1.0 7.7 12.3 3.2 0.0 24.2 7th
8th 1.8 6.9 8.7 2.8 0.1 20.4 8th
Total 1.8 7.9 17.0 23.7 22.4 14.5 7.9 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 66.7% 0.0    0.0
10-4 20.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-5 7.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 0.0% 0.0
10-4 0.2% 10.0% 10.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2
9-5 1.1% 10.6% 10.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0
8-6 3.3% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.2
7-7 7.9% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.3 7.6
6-8 14.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 14.4
5-9 22.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.4
4-10 23.7% 23.7
3-11 17.0% 17.0
2-12 7.9% 7.9
1-13 1.8% 1.8
0-14
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%