Penn
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.5 185
Expected Predictive Rating -0.4 172
Pace 70.7 124
Improvement +1.2 135

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #175 C C C C D
Defense C #205 C- B- D+ B+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 276 52% 307 -4.0 311
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 52 38% 164 +2.8 55
Three Pointers 37% 260 39% 12 +1.2 139
1st FG Attempt 1.02 177 +0.0 176
Second Chance 31.1% 162 0.99 229 0.31 187
Turnovers 17.1% 192
Freethrows 0.32 127 70% 257 0.23 153
Total Offense -0.6 175

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 58 63% 298 -4.9 333
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 132 41% 297 -1.2 283
Three Pointers 35% 335 32% 102 +4.0 34
1st FG Attempt 1.06 245 -2.1 249
Second Chance 31.0% 202 0.91 36 0.28 91
Turnovers 15.6% 255
Freethrows 0.25 41 67% 9 0.17 24
Total Defense -1.0 205

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.1 316 +0.2 206
Shot Type Accuracy +1.2 126 +1.8 246
Possession Length 16.4 82 17.5 230
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 340 0.20 268
Improvement -1.4 #273 +2.6 #51

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7% 8% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.6
.500 or above 62% 75% 39%
.500 or above in Conference 71% 85% 48%
Conference Champion 3% 4% 1%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 3%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round7% 8% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Columbia (Home) - 64.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 64 - 11
Quad 410 - 213 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 258 @American L 78 - 84 54% -3  13% 0 - 1 D -9 D -6 D+ D- F C- -3 D- C+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 60 @Providence L 81 - 106 11% -10  5% 0 - 2 D- -13 D+ -3 F+ C+ B D -7 D- F A-
 Mon, Nov 17 136 Saint Joseph's W 83 - 74 50% +1  55% 1 - 2 B- +8 B- +5 A D- D- B- +2 D A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 217 @Drexel W 84 - 68 44% +9  98% 2 - 2 A- +16 A+ +15 B+ A+ C- C+ +2 B C- F
 Fri, Nov 28 182 Merrimack W 77 - 65 61% +4  60% 3 - 2 B- +8 C+ +3 B C+ B B +5 A B- F
 Sat, Nov 29 226 La Salle W 73 - 71 68% -3  28% 4 - 2 C- -4 C+ +3 B- A C D -7 A+ F D
 Sun, Nov 30 117 Hofstra L 60 - 77 44% -4  32% 4 - 3 F+ -17 F -14 F B C- D+ -4 F D A+
 Sat, Dec 6 32 Villanova L 63 - 90 8% -15  0% 4 - 4 D- -13 C- -2 C- B- C- F -12 F B+ C
 Mon, Dec 8 319 Lafayette W 74 - 72 86% +6  96% 5 - 4 D -11 D- -7 D F+ B D+ -4 F A B-
 Sat, Dec 20 122 @Rutgers L 69 - 70 25% +4  89% 5 - 5 C+ +5 D+ -2 F A+ D- B+ +7 B- A+ F
 Sun, Dec 28 89 @George Mason L 79 - 83 17% -3  21% 5 - 6 C+ +5 A- +10 A+ D- A D+ -5 D F+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 315 NJIT W 80 - 61 84% +6  52% 6 - 6 B- +7 C +1 A D- D+ B+ +6 B- A- B-
 Mon, Jan 5 221 @Princeton L 76 - 78 44% +1  61% 6 - 7 0 - 1 C- -2 B +5 D- A+ F D- -8 F A- D
 Sat, Jan 10 278 Brown W 81 - 73 78% +1  57% 7 - 7 1 - 1 C- -2 B+ +8 A- F+ A- F+ -10 F+ D+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 240 @Dartmouth W 84 - 74 50% +1  44% 8 - 7 2 - 1 B +9 B- +5 B- C+ A+ B- +3 B C D+
 Mon, Jan 19 153 @Harvard L 63 - 64 33% -1  27% 8 - 8 2 - 2 C+ +2 D+ -3 D+ F D+ B +5 C B C+
 Sat, Jan 24 81 Yale L 60 - 77 30% -5  15% 8 - 9 2 - 3 D- -13 F -15 D- D- D+ C+ +1 B B- A-
 Fri, Jan 30 200 @Columbia L 67 - 72 42% -5  2% 8 - 10 2 - 4 C- -5 D- -6 D D+ B- C+ +1 F B+ A
 Sat, Jan 31 159 @Cornell W 91 - 81 34% +11  97% 9 - 10 3 - 4 B+ +13 B +7 A+ F F B +5 C A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 221 Princeton W 61 - 60 67% +5  90% 10 - 10 4 - 4 D+ -5 D -4 C- D B C -0 C+ B+ F
 Fri, Feb 13 200 Columbia W 78 - 74 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 159 Cornell W 89 - 87 57%
 Sat, Feb 21 81 @Yale L 72 - 83 14%
 Fri, Feb 27 240 Dartmouth W 81 - 75 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 153 Harvard W 71 - 70 54%
 Fri, Mar 6 278 @Brown W 70 - 68 58%
Totals 13 - 13 7 - 7 -2 C -1 C C C C -1 C- B- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D C A- C+ 35% 28% 37% D C C C- C C C+ D+ C C D D+ B- D+ 43% 22% 35% C- C- C B B- D+ B A B+
1.08 52% 38% 39% +1 -1 1.02 31% 1.0 .31 17% .32 70% .23 1.10 63% 41% 32% +2 0 1.06 31% 0.9 .28 16% .25 67% .22
Nov
9		 American D C F A+ C- 31% 27% 42% F+ D+ F+ C D- F A+ A- A+ C- C F C+ D- 41% 9% 50% D D- C- B C+ C F A+ D-
1.01 60% 15% 45% +1 -1 1.02 23% 1.0 .23 23% .54 78% .42 1.09 57% 100% 32% +4 +2 1.13 27% 0.8 .22 17% .36 65% .23
Nov
11		 Providence D+ F F A+ D- 23% 36% 41% F F+ D+ A- C+ B A- A A D D- A+ F F+ 43% 16% 41% C D- F F F A- C- F F+
1.02 29% 23% 44% -6 -3 0.84 26% 1.2 .30 13% .35 79% .27 1.34 71% 22% 48% +12 +1 1.27 44% 1.4 .59 19% .36 91% .33
Nov
17		 Saint Joseph's B- C- C A+ A 47% 22% 31% B+ A C+ F D- D- A+ A+ A+ B- D- D+ B- D 36% 14% 50% C D D+ A+ A+ C- B A B+
1.11 54% 36% 50% +5 +1 1.14 33% 0.7 .22 19% .38 83% .31 0.99 67% 38% 31% +1 +1 1.05 36% 0.4 .16 17% .24 67% .16
Nov
21		 Drexel A+ D+ A+ B- B+ 36% 21% 43% C B+ B A+ A+ C- A+ B A+ C+ C- A- B+ B 49% 26% 25% C B D+ C+ C- F D+ A+ B+
1.25 53% 60% 35% +4 0 1.09 37% 1.4 .50 16% .50 79% .39 1.01 58% 29% 31% -4 0 0.94 33% 0.9 .28 13% .29 41% .12
Nov
28		 Merrimack C+ C A+ F B+ 46% 29% 25% C- B D+ B+ C+ B B+ F D B D D- A+ A 40% 16% 44% C+ A C+ B B- F A B+ A+
1.13 55% 64% 25% +3 -1 1.06 37% 1.2 .43 16% .40 52% .21 0.96 61% 44% 12% -12 +1 0.79 23% 0.9 .21 7% .24 73% .17
Nov
29		 La Salle C+ D B A+ B+ 31% 31% 38% F B- C A+ A C A- D+ B D A- C+ A+ A 28% 36% 36% A+ A+ F F F D A+ A+ A+
1.14 50% 43% 47% +6 -2 1.11 30% 1.6 .47 17% .32 65% .21 1.11 47% 37% 21% -11 -3 0.75 46% 1.5 .68 16% .15 63% .09
Nov
30		 Hofstra F F F F F 27% 50% 23% F F B- B B C- C- C- C- D+ F B- B- F 43% 29% 29% C- F C F+ D A+ D- F F
0.90 29% 23% 25% -18 -5 0.56 33% 1.2 .40 15% .30 71% .21 1.15 83% 33% 33% +9 -1 1.19 35% 1.3 .43 22% .35 94% .33
Dec
6		 Villanova C- F+ F A+ C+ 27% 37% 37% F C- B- B- B- C- C F F F C- F F F 32% 15% 53% C+ F B- B B+ C A- B- A-
0.96 46% 28% 44% -1 -3 0.94 32% 1.0 .32 21% .23 33% .08 1.36 65% 50% 54% +20 0 1.42 33% 0.9 .30 15% .23 69% .16
Dec
8		 Lafayette D- C+ D- F+ D 46% 29% 25% C D C- F F+ B C+ F C- D+ D A+ F F 55% 13% 32% F+ F A- A+ A B- B+ F B-
1.03 62% 31% 29% -2 0 0.96 31% 0.8 .24 13% .30 63% .19 1.01 62% 14% 41% +3 +2 1.11 20% 0.5 .10 18% .22 77% .17
Dec
20		 Rutgers D+ B B+ F F 37% 28% 35% D+ F B A+ A+ D- A+ D+ A+ B+ A F A+ B- 32% 34% 34% B- B- A+ A+ A+ F F B+ F
1.01 63% 42% 7% -12 -1 0.77 36% 1.7 .61 20% .46 72% .33 1.02 44% 65% 18% -4 -2 0.90 21% 0.6 .13 9% .50 68% .34
Dec
28		 George Mason A- B- A- A+ A+ 32% 28% 40% D+ A+ D+ F D- A C F D- D+ F F A+ D 48% 26% 26% C D F+ D F+ F F+ A+ B+
1.15 61% 44% 48% +11 -1 1.21 24% 0.7 .16 12% .25 53% .13 1.21 75% 69% 8% +6 0 1.14 38% 1.1 .41 10% .45 50% .23
Dec
31		 NJIT C A- A A+ A+ 23% 21% 56% F+ A C- F D- D+ D+ F F B+ B+ C B C+ 32% 36% 32% A- B- D+ A+ A- B- A F B+
1.15 67% 45% 41% +10 -1 1.19 31% 0.8 .26 16% .32 58% .19 0.87 47% 37% 29% -6 -2 0.85 29% 0.5 .16 20% .21 83% .18
Jan
5		 Princeton B F A+ B+ F+ 52% 24% 24% C D- A+ A A+ F B+ A+ A+ D- F+ F F F 53% 11% 36% F F B+ A A- D F A D
1.14 33% 55% 36% -8 +1 0.87 43% 1.3 .57 20% .36 100% .36 1.17 64% 60% 41% +9 +2 1.26 21% 0.8 .18 15% .41 65% .27
Jan
10		 Brown B+ F A+ A+ A+ 31% 40% 29% F A- B- F F+ A- A+ C+ A+ F+ D- B- C- F 48% 19% 33% C- F+ C+ F+ D+ F+ B- B+ B
1.20 40% 58% 50% +9 -3 1.15 34% 0.5 .19 13% .49 76% .37 1.08 62% 30% 33% 0 +1 1.04 27% 1.2 .33 16% .21 67% .14
Jan
17		 Dartmouth B- F C- A+ B- 44% 20% 35% C B- C+ C+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ B- A- F A- A- 31% 11% 57% D B C- B- C D+ F C F
1.16 46% 36% 47% +1 0 1.06 32% 1.0 .32 7% .46 61% .28 1.02 47% 67% 29% -4 +1 0.94 27% 1.0 .27 18% .44 73% .32
Jan
19		 Harvard D+ F+ A+ C C- 40% 21% 38% D+ D+ C- F F D+ B+ B A- B D- A+ B B- 47% 10% 43% F C C A B C+ A A+ A+
1.01 47% 50% 33% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.5 .15 18% .33 76% .25 1.03 67% 20% 32% +1 +2 1.08 26% 0.8 .19 19% .16 50% .08
Jan
24		 Yale F F A D D- 29% 24% 47% D D- D D- D- D+ B F C C+ C- A+ F+ B+ 56% 19% 25% D- B F A+ B- A- B- F C-
0.90 43% 50% 30% -4 -1 0.92 24% 0.9 .22 17% .32 61% .20 1.16 59% 22% 42% +1 +2 1.06 42% 0.9 .36 20% .30 88% .26
Jan
30		 Columbia D- C F A+ C- 32% 41% 27% F D D C+ D+ B- F F F C+ F A F F 48% 22% 30% C+ F B B+ B+ A A+ A- A+
1.00 56% 22% 47% -2 -3 0.91 25% 1.0 .25 12% .19 55% .10 1.07 71% 27% 47% +10 +1 1.22 32% 0.8 .25 27% .12 67% .08
Jan
31		 Cornell B A C- A+ A+ 49% 17% 34% B- A+ B- F F F A+ B- A+ B B+ C+ F C 35% 9% 56% C+ C A- A+ A+ F C A+ B+
1.26 74% 38% 50% +16 +1 1.36 35% 0.6 .19 19% .52 73% .38 1.12 53% 40% 43% +6 +1 1.17 25% 0.8 .19 12% .30 58% .17
Feb
7		 Princeton D C D- B+ C+ 37% 33% 30% F C- B F D B C- D- D+ C B- F A+ B 49% 17% 34% D- C+ D A+ B+ F C- A+ B
1.05 59% 33% 36% 0 -2 0.98 33% 0.8 .25 12% .29 67% .19 1.03 52% 50% 25% -5 +1 0.94 29% 0.7 .21 12% .31 63% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 1.1 2.9 1st
2nd 0.2 6.6 8.1 0.4 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 8.2 17.0 2.4 27.7 3rd
4th 0.0 2.9 16.5 3.7 23.1 4th
5th 0.4 10.4 5.3 0.0 16.1 5th
6th 0.1 3.2 6.3 0.2 9.8 6th
7th 1.0 3.4 0.7 5.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
Total 1.2 7.0 20.4 30.4 27.4 12.1 1.5 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 74.0% 1.1    0.4 0.6 0.1
9-5 13.8% 1.7    0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 1.5% 19.3% 19.3% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.2
9-5 12.1% 16.4% 16.4% 13.8 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.3 10.2
8-6 27.4% 11.4% 11.4% 14.6 0.1 1.2 1.8 0.0 24.3
7-7 30.4% 4.1% 4.1% 15.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 29.2
6-8 20.4% 20.4
5-9 7.0% 7.0
4-10 1.2% 1.2
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 14.3 93.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.1 10.3 72.4 17.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 1.2%