American
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#242
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#201
Pace72.8#104
Improvement+1.1#108

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#252
First Shot+1.7#131
After Offensive Rebound-4.8#359
Layup/Dunks-1.2#221
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#332
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#44
Freethrows+0.8#138
Improvement+0.8#114

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#211
First Shot-4.1#306
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#39
Layups/Dunks-4.4#318
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#151
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#74
Freethrows-3.2#333
Improvement+0.3#164
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.1% 20.0% 13.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 14.8 15.5
.500 or above 68.1% 90.1% 67.3%
.500 or above in Conference 76.5% 87.7% 76.1%
Conference Champion 16.9% 29.2% 16.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 0.4% 3.3%
First Four3.9% 1.2% 4.0%
First Round12.1% 19.4% 11.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 3.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 416 - 617 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 50 @Wake Forest L 74-88 6%     0 - 1 -0.5 +2.4 -1.9
  Sun, Nov 9 248 Penn W 84-78 63%     1 - 1 -1.9 -2.1 -0.3
  Wed, Nov 12 59 @George Washington L 67-107 7%     1 - 2 -27.5 -9.0 -15.5
  Tue, Nov 18 123 @Rutgers L 71-80 17%     1 - 3 -3.5 +1.2 -4.6
  Fri, Nov 28 328 Maine W 74-61 79%     2 - 3 +0.1 +2.7 -1.9
  Sat, Nov 29 156 Siena L 55-59 45%     2 - 4 -7.3 -18.3 +11.0
  Sun, Nov 30 287 Longwood W 92-66 70%     3 - 4 +15.9 +11.2 +4.0
  Wed, Dec 3 267 Drexel W 75-73 65%     4 - 4 -6.6 +2.0 -8.5
  Sat, Dec 6 345 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-60 83%     5 - 4 +3.2 +10.0 -4.6
  Thu, Dec 18 42 @Virginia Commonwealth L 66-85 3%    
  Mon, Dec 22 23 @Virginia L 64-86 2%    
  Wed, Dec 31 321 Loyola Maryland W 79-71 76%    
  Sat, Jan 3 253 @Boston University L 72-74 41%    
  Wed, Jan 7 179 @Colgate L 71-77 29%    
  Sat, Jan 10 286 Holy Cross W 75-69 69%    
  Mon, Jan 12 197 Navy W 73-72 53%    
  Sun, Jan 18 340 @Army W 77-73 64%    
  Wed, Jan 21 179 Colgate L 73-74 50%    
  Sat, Jan 24 286 @Holy Cross L 72-73 48%    
  Wed, Jan 28 321 @Loyola Maryland W 76-74 56%    
  Sat, Jan 31 327 Lafayette W 77-69 78%    
  Wed, Feb 4 316 Bucknell W 77-70 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 197 @Navy L 70-75 32%    
  Wed, Feb 11 307 @Lehigh W 74-73 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 340 Army W 80-70 81%    
  Wed, Feb 18 316 @Bucknell W 74-73 54%    
  Sat, Feb 21 327 @Lafayette W 74-72 58%    
  Wed, Feb 25 307 Lehigh W 77-70 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 253 Boston University W 75-71 62%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.5 3.9 4.8 3.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 16.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.0 6.3 5.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.6 7.1 4.7 1.2 0.1 17.1 3rd
4th 0.3 3.1 6.4 3.3 0.6 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 5.3 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.0 6.4 9.2 11.6 13.5 14.1 13.1 10.1 7.1 4.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
16-2 98.0% 2.0    1.8 0.1
15-3 89.7% 3.8    3.0 0.7 0.0
14-4 67.5% 4.8    3.0 1.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 38.6% 3.9    1.6 1.6 0.6 0.1
12-6 11.7% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.9% 16.9 10.5 4.8 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 48.6% 48.6% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.6% 50.8% 50.8% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 2.0% 40.7% 40.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.2
15-3 4.2% 31.1% 31.1% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 2.9
14-4 7.1% 26.9% 26.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 5.2
13-5 10.1% 23.1% 23.1% 15.5 0.1 1.0 1.2 7.8
12-6 13.1% 17.7% 17.7% 15.6 0.1 0.8 1.5 10.7
11-7 14.1% 14.2% 14.2% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.6 12.1
10-8 13.5% 10.3% 10.3% 15.9 0.1 1.3 12.1
9-9 11.6% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8 10.8
8-10 9.2% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.8
7-11 6.4% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.2 6.2
6-12 4.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 4.0
5-13 2.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 1.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.1% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.6 8.0 85.9 0.0%