Preseason Rankings
American
Patriot League
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#303
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.8#349
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#320
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#269
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 17.0% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 17.2 14.9 15.5
.500 or above 33.6% 67.5% 32.4%
.500 or above in Conference 54.4% 76.6% 53.6%
Conference Champion 9.0% 22.5% 8.5%
Last Place in Conference 9.8% 2.7% 10.0%
First Four3.9% 4.5% 3.9%
First Round6.8% 17.3% 6.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Away) - 3.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 412 - 1013 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 67   @ Wake Forest L 55-75 3%    
  Nov 09, 2025 278   Penn W 68-67 55%    
  Nov 12, 2025 85   @ George Washington L 58-75 6%    
  Nov 18, 2025 81   @ Rutgers L 57-75 6%    
  Nov 28, 2025 290   Maine W 63-61 57%    
  Nov 29, 2025 222   Siena L 65-67 45%    
  Nov 30, 2025 204   Longwood L 66-69 41%    
  Dec 03, 2025 227   Drexel L 59-60 45%    
  Dec 06, 2025 360   Maryland Eastern Shore W 69-58 82%    
  Dec 18, 2025 58   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 53-74 4%    
  Dec 22, 2025 46   @ Virginia L 48-71 2%    
  Dec 31, 2025 317   Loyola Maryland W 66-62 62%    
  Jan 03, 2026 277   @ Boston University L 58-63 34%    
  Jan 07, 2026 216   @ Colgate L 62-70 25%    
  Jan 10, 2026 352   Holy Cross W 68-61 73%    
  Jan 12, 2026 224   Navy L 65-66 45%    
  Jan 18, 2026 353   @ Army W 66-65 55%    
  Jan 21, 2026 216   Colgate L 65-67 44%    
  Jan 24, 2026 352   @ Holy Cross W 65-64 55%    
  Jan 28, 2026 317   @ Loyola Maryland L 63-65 43%    
  Jan 31, 2026 308   Lafayette W 64-61 61%    
  Feb 04, 2026 287   Bucknell W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 07, 2026 224   @ Navy L 62-69 27%    
  Feb 11, 2026 306   @ Lehigh L 63-66 41%    
  Feb 14, 2026 353   Army W 69-62 73%    
  Feb 18, 2026 287   @ Bucknell L 63-67 37%    
  Feb 21, 2026 308   @ Lafayette L 61-64 41%    
  Feb 25, 2026 306   Lehigh W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 28, 2026 277   Boston University W 61-60 55%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.5 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 9.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 3.3 3.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.4 3.4 1.1 0.1 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.8 3.2 0.7 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.3 2.4 5.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.0 2.9 0.4 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.7 2.6 0.4 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.5 4.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 3.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.0 10th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.7 6.6 8.6 9.9 10.7 11.5 10.6 9.5 8.1 6.0 4.3 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 96.6% 1.3    1.1 0.1
15-3 82.3% 2.1    1.6 0.5 0.0
14-4 59.2% 2.5    1.4 1.0 0.1
13-5 28.9% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.6% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 5.4 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 55.5% 55.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.4% 49.6% 49.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.3% 40.8% 40.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8
15-3 2.5% 31.6% 31.6% 15.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.7
14-4 4.3% 26.0% 26.0% 17.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 3.1
13-5 6.0% 19.6% 19.6% 17.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 4.8
12-6 8.1% 15.3% 15.3% 18.8 0.0 0.3 1.2 6.9
11-7 9.5% 9.4% 9.4% 17.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 8.6
10-8 10.6% 6.7% 6.7% 18.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 9.9
9-9 11.5% 5.2% 5.2% 16.8 0.0 0.6 10.9
8-10 10.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.4
7-11 9.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 9.8
6-12 8.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.5
5-13 6.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.5
4-14 4.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.7
3-15 2.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.8
2-16 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 17.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.1 5.6 92.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%