Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
181 Colgate 32.8%   16   4 - 6 0 - 0 17 - 12 13 - 5 -1.5      -0.1 169 -1.4 213 67.4 238 -0.4 171 0.0 1
203 Navy 25.3%   6 - 5 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 -2.7      -2.9 246 +0.1 154 67.4 242 -3.6 223 0.0 1
268 American 11.3%   5 - 6 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -5.9      -3.0 250 -2.9 272 71.0 135 -3.2 217 0.0 1
288 Boston University 8.9%   4 - 8 0 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 8 -6.7      +0.9 140 -7.5 353 60.4 361 -7.7 282 0.0 1
308 Bucknell 5.1%   3 - 10 0 - 0 11 - 20 8 - 10 -8.4      -6.0 328 -2.4 249 68.8 206 -8.4 297 0.0 1
315 Lehigh 4.5%   2 - 9 0 - 0 10 - 19 8 - 10 -9.0      -5.3 316 -3.7 299 67.5 236 -12.8 337 0.0 1
321 Lafayette 3.3%   2 - 10 0 - 0 10 - 20 8 - 10 -9.5      -4.9 300 -4.6 323 67.7 231 -13.8 342 0.0 1
326 Holy Cross 3.3%   3 - 8 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -9.9      -4.2 285 -5.6 338 65.1 296 -6.2 255 0.0 1
329 Loyola Maryland 3.1%   2 - 9 0 - 0 9 - 20 7 - 11 -10.0      -2.9 245 -7.1 349 69.4 189 -16.8 349 0.0 1
331 Army 2.5%   4 - 7 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -10.3      -5.4 319 -4.9 327 69.0 197 -7.3 277 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 20 192 Harvard 81 326 Holy Cross 53   
Sat, Dec 20 129 Georgia Tech 95 321 Lafayette 81   
Sat, Dec 20 308 Bucknell 39 18 Iowa 94   
Sun, Dec 21 288 Boston University 88 304 Umass Lowell 76   
Sun, Dec 21 181 Colgate 60 12 Florida 90   
Sun, Dec 21 315 Lehigh 62 224 Monmouth 76   
Sun, Dec 21 88 George Mason 86 329 Loyola Maryland 79   
Mon, Dec 22 268 American 51 26 Virginia 95   
Tue, Dec 23 331 Army 95 363 Binghamton 85   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 28 181 Colgate 72 192 Harvard 68 63%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 2.2 48.6 23.2 12.1 6.7 4.0 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.2
Navy 2.6 35.3 26.0 14.9 9.1 5.7 3.7 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.4
American 4.2 12.8 16.3 16.8 14.6 11.8 9.3 7.2 5.5 3.6 2.2
Boston University 4.6 9.0 13.5 15.5 14.6 12.8 10.9 8.6 6.9 5.1 3.1
Bucknell 5.7 4.1 7.5 11.0 12.5 12.8 12.8 12.2 10.8 9.1 7.3
Lehigh 6.0 3.6 6.5 9.5 11.1 12.3 12.4 12.2 11.7 11.0 9.7
Lafayette 6.4 2.5 5.2 7.9 10.0 11.4 12.2 13.3 13.1 13.0 11.5
Holy Cross 6.5 2.2 5.0 7.5 9.4 10.6 12.2 12.5 13.7 13.6 13.4
Loyola Maryland 6.6 2.1 4.6 7.4 9.0 10.5 12.0 12.9 13.6 13.9 14.0
Army 6.8 1.8 3.7 6.4 8.2 9.9 11.3 13.1 14.0 15.6 16.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.6 4.5 7.5 10.7 13.8 16.3 15.8 12.6 8.6 4.2 1.1
Navy 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.3 4.3 6.9 10.0 12.8 15.4 14.8 13.7 9.8 5.4 2.1 0.5
American 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 5.1 7.6 11.0 13.2 14.5 13.8 11.5 8.6 5.3 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.1
Boston University 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.8 6.5 9.3 12.7 14.3 14.5 12.5 9.9 6.9 4.1 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
Bucknell 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 4.4 7.3 10.6 13.2 14.8 14.1 12.1 8.9 5.8 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Lehigh 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.1 5.7 8.7 11.6 13.6 14.1 13.4 10.8 7.8 4.8 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Lafayette 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.7 6.6 10.1 13.2 14.6 13.9 12.7 9.2 6.6 4.0 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Holy Cross 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.4 7.4 10.9 13.4 14.3 13.6 11.7 8.9 6.2 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.7 7.7 10.8 13.8 14.5 13.7 11.3 8.7 6.0 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Army 7 - 11 0.1 0.9 2.6 5.2 8.7 12.3 14.5 14.5 13.1 10.6 7.6 4.9 2.8 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 48.6% 36.4 10.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Navy 35.3% 24.6 8.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
American 12.8% 7.6 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
Boston University 9.0% 5.0 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bucknell 4.1% 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lehigh 3.6% 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lafayette 2.5% 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Holy Cross 2.2% 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Loyola Maryland 2.1% 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Army 1.8% 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 32.8% 32.8% 0.0% 16   0.1 0.5 2.2 6.9 13.0 10.1 67.2 0.0%
Navy 25.3% 25.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 2.9 9.0 12.5 74.8 0.0%
American 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.5 8.3 88.7 0.0%
Boston University 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 7.9 91.1 0.0%
Bucknell 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.9 94.9 0.0%
Lehigh 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.1 4.3 95.5 0.0%
Lafayette 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 3.3 96.7 0.0%
Holy Cross 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 3.1 96.8 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 3.1 96.9 0.0%
Army 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.4 97.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colgate 32.8% 3.7% 31.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 25.3% 5.7% 22.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 11.3% 4.9% 8.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 8.9% 5.9% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 5.1% 4.3% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 4.5% 3.9% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 3.3% 3.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 3.3% 2.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.1% 2.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 2.5% 2.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 79.8% 0.8 20.2 79.8
2nd Round 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0