Loyola Maryland
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.0 #324
Expected Predictive Rating -14.4 #347
Pace 69.7 #161
Improvement +1.5 #110

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #276 C- D+ D+ D- B
Defense #341 D- F D C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #209 1.12 #215 -1.4 #236
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #330 0.71 #238 -3.5 #337
Three Pointers 50% #24 0.95 #265 +2.9 #90
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #229 -2.0 #234
Freethrows 15.5 #293 67% #329 10.4 #320
Second Chance 28.0% #254 1.01 #233 0.28 #261
Turnovers 18.0% #277
Total Offense -3.7 #276

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #96 1.31 #336 -5.1 #336
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #120 0.90 #348 -2.2 #329
Three Pointers 36% #303 1.00 #173 +2.6 #84
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #318 -4.7 #318
Freethrows 18.0 #205 76% #344 13.8 #224
Second Chance 33.6% #298 1.18 #330 0.40 #336
Turnovers 14.4% #303
Total Defense -6.3 #341

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #60 0.1% #168
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.3% #259 9.1% #330
Possession Length 18.0 #238 16.6 #70
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #294 0.21 #304
Improvement -0.1 #181 +1.6 #89

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.7% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 12.5% 17.7% 4.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 31.0% 20.9% 46.3%
First Four2.1% 2.6% 1.3%
First Round1.1% 1.3% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 60.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 49 - 149 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 157 Towson L 56 - 67 17% -4  0 - 1 -11 -10 F F C- -2 D B D+
 Tue, Nov 11 336 NJIT L 64 - 66 66% +1  0 - 2 -16 -12 F B F -4 B F C
 Sat, Nov 15 339 Stonehill W 74 - 63 55% +3  1 - 2 -0 +4 B+ C C+ -4 F C A+
 Sun, Nov 16 274 @Fairfield L 82 - 85 26% -4  1 - 3 -6 +4 A F F -10 C- F F
 Wed, Nov 19 118 @Duquesne L 78 - 92 8% -12  1 - 4 -8 +3 B D C -10 D- F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 25 @Kentucky L 46 - 88 1% -26  1 - 5 -23 -19 F D+ F -2 C+ C+ D+
 Sun, Nov 30 364 Coppin St. W 95 - 84 88% +7  2 - 5 -12 +11 A+ A- F -23 F C F
 Wed, Dec 3 230 @Hampton L 71 - 93 19% -15  2 - 6 -23 -4 F A+ F -18 F A+ D
 Tue, Dec 9 349 @VMI L 70 - 86 48% -15  2 - 7 -25 -0 F B- C- -27 F F F
 Sat, Dec 13 288 Mount St. Mary's L 73 - 81 51% -5  2 - 8 -18 -7 B- F D- -11 F F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 86 @George Mason L 79 - 86 4% +1  2 - 9 +3 +14 C+ A+ B- -11 B+ F F
 Wed, Dec 31 224 @American L 69 - 84 19% -10  2 - 10 0 - 1 -16 -0 B- F F -16 F C- F
 Sat, Jan 3 314 Lafayette L 64 - 79 59% -15  2 - 11 0 - 2 -27 -9 F F C -19 F F F
 Wed, Jan 7 333 @Army W 84 - 76 OT 41% +3  3 - 11 1 - 2 +0 +2 F C F -2 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 319 @Bucknell L 67 - 70 38% +9  3 - 12 1 - 3 -10 -5 C+ F F -4 B- D A+
 Wed, Jan 14 199 Colgate L 80 - 86 33% -3  3 - 13 1 - 4 -12 +1 C F A+ -12 C F F
 Sat, Jan 17 285 Boston University W 74 - 57 50% +1  4 - 13 2 - 4 +7 -8 F A+ C +15 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Jan 19 307 @Lehigh L 81 - 88 33% +2  4 - 14 2 - 5 -12 +8 A F A+ -21 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 319 Bucknell W 75 - 72 60%
 Wed, Jan 28 224 American L 73 - 76 37%
 Sat, Jan 31 194 @Navy L 67 - 78 16%
 Wed, Feb 4 307 Lehigh W 75 - 74 55%
 Sat, Feb 7 285 @Boston University L 72 - 78 29%
 Wed, Feb 11 314 @Lafayette L 72 - 76 37%
 Sun, Feb 15 320 Holy Cross W 74 - 71 60%
 Wed, Feb 18 333 Army W 80 - 76 64%
 Sat, Feb 21 199 @Colgate L 71 - 81 17%
 Wed, Feb 25 194 Navy L 70 - 75 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 320 @Holy Cross L 71 - 74 39%
Totals 8 - 21 6 - 12 -10 -4 C- D+ D+ -6 D- F D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.9 5.6 3.6 0.4 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.3 5.9 6.3 0.8 0.0 13.4 6th
7th 0.1 3.9 9.2 2.0 0.0 15.3 7th
8th 0.1 2.6 9.9 4.2 0.1 16.8 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 8.7 6.6 0.5 0.0 18.3 9th
10th 0.6 3.2 7.0 5.4 0.9 0.0 17.1 10th
Total 0.6 3.4 9.4 16.8 21.7 20.7 15.0 7.8 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 17.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 12.2% 12.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 1.0% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 0.1 0.9
10-8 3.5% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.2 3.2
9-9 7.8% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.3 7.5
8-10 15.0% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.6 14.5
7-11 20.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.4 20.3
6-12 21.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 21.4
5-13 16.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 16.6
4-14 9.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.4
3-15 3.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.4
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 16.0 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%