American
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#250
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#203
Pace73.5#88
Improvement+0.8#122

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#260
First Shot+1.4#139
After Offensive Rebound-5.0#358
Layup/Dunks-1.0#212
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#73
Freethrows+1.7#92
Improvement-0.2#195

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#211
First Shot-2.8#267
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#95
Layups/Dunks-2.7#278
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#166
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#78
Freethrows-3.8#342
Improvement+0.9#101
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.4% 13.1% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 60.9% 65.7% 40.5%
.500 or above in Conference 72.7% 74.9% 63.4%
Conference Champion 14.4% 15.3% 10.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 3.5% 5.9%
First Four3.7% 3.7% 3.7%
First Round10.5% 11.2% 7.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Home) - 81.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 415 - 716 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 53 @Wake Forest L 74-88 6%     0 - 1 -1.0 +2.9 -2.9
  Sun, Nov 9 240 Penn W 84-78 60%     1 - 1 -1.5 -1.8 -0.2
  Wed, Nov 12 62 @George Washington L 67-107 7%     1 - 2 -27.9 -8.8 -16.0
  Tue, Nov 18 120 @Rutgers L 71-80 15%     1 - 3 -2.9 +1.6 -4.4
  Fri, Nov 28 326 Maine W 74-61 76%     2 - 3 +0.7 +3.0 -1.6
  Sat, Nov 29 161 Siena L 55-59 44%     2 - 4 -7.3 -18.4 +11.1
  Sun, Nov 30 289 Longwood W 92-66 69%     3 - 4 +16.1 +11.4 +3.9
  Wed, Dec 3 256 Drexel W 75-73 63%     4 - 4 -6.4 +1.8 -8.1
  Sat, Dec 6 341 Maryland Eastern Shore W 70-61 81%    
  Thu, Dec 18 43 @Virginia Commonwealth L 65-84 3%    
  Mon, Dec 22 26 @Virginia L 63-85 2%    
  Wed, Dec 31 319 Loyola Maryland W 79-72 75%    
  Sat, Jan 3 235 @Boston University L 71-74 37%    
  Wed, Jan 7 176 @Colgate L 70-77 27%    
  Sat, Jan 10 301 Holy Cross W 75-69 71%    
  Mon, Jan 12 198 Navy W 73-72 52%    
  Sun, Jan 18 342 @Army W 76-73 62%    
  Wed, Jan 21 176 Colgate L 73-74 48%    
  Sat, Jan 24 301 @Holy Cross L 72-73 49%    
  Wed, Jan 28 319 @Loyola Maryland W 76-75 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 331 Lafayette W 76-68 76%    
  Wed, Feb 4 304 Bucknell W 77-71 71%    
  Sat, Feb 7 198 @Navy L 70-75 31%    
  Wed, Feb 11 299 @Lehigh L 72-73 50%    
  Sat, Feb 14 342 Army W 79-70 80%    
  Wed, Feb 18 304 @Bucknell W 74-73 51%    
  Sat, Feb 21 331 @Lafayette W 73-71 57%    
  Wed, Feb 25 299 Lehigh W 76-70 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 235 Boston University W 74-71 59%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.4 3.5 4.0 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 14.4 1st
2nd 0.4 2.6 5.7 4.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.6 6.4 4.5 1.0 0.1 16.1 3rd
4th 0.4 3.3 6.4 3.5 0.5 0.0 14.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 5.6 2.9 0.4 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.6 2.9 0.4 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.5 2.3 0.3 7.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.2 1.9 0.4 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 2.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.7 4.9 7.4 10.1 12.5 13.7 13.1 12.0 9.4 6.2 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 97.5% 1.7    1.6 0.1
15-3 88.0% 2.9    2.3 0.6 0.0
14-4 65.3% 4.0    2.6 1.2 0.2
13-5 37.5% 3.5    1.4 1.5 0.5 0.0
12-6 11.5% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 9.0 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 23.8% 23.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.6% 44.3% 44.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4
16-2 1.7% 35.8% 35.8% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.1
15-3 3.3% 34.4% 34.4% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 2.2
14-4 6.2% 24.7% 24.7% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 4.7
13-5 9.4% 21.6% 21.6% 15.5 0.1 0.9 1.0 7.3
12-6 12.0% 18.1% 18.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 9.9
11-7 13.1% 13.3% 13.3% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.4 11.4
10-8 13.7% 9.1% 9.1% 15.9 0.1 1.1 12.4
9-9 12.5% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9 11.6
8-10 10.1% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.4 9.6
7-11 7.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 7.3
6-12 4.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.9
5-13 2.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.7
4-14 1.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.4% 12.4% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.9 7.1 87.6 0.0%