American
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#268
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#217
Pace71.0#135
Improvement-0.6#215

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#250
First Shot+0.9#152
After Offensive Rebound-3.9#352
Layup/Dunks-2.3#266
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#25
Freethrows+0.1#170
Improvement+0.7#119

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#272
First Shot-3.9#314
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#100
Layups/Dunks-5.0#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#127
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#82
Freethrows-2.4#327
Improvement-1.3#281
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.3% 12.5% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 61.8% 68.3% 42.5%
.500 or above in Conference 71.7% 77.9% 53.4%
Conference Champion 12.8% 15.4% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 2.5% 9.5%
First Four4.9% 4.9% 4.7%
First Round8.7% 9.8% 5.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Home) - 74.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 415 - 716 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 61 @Wake Forest L 74-88 6%     0 - 1 -2.2 +2.0 -3.2
  Sun, Nov 9 240 Penn W 84-78 57%     1 - 1 -1.6 -1.1 -1.0
  Wed, Nov 12 77 @George Washington L 67-107 7%     1 - 2 -29.8 -8.6 -18.1
  Tue, Nov 18 147 @Rutgers L 71-80 18%     1 - 3 -5.1 +0.7 -5.7
  Fri, Nov 28 342 Maine W 74-61 80%     2 - 3 -1.5 +1.9 -2.8
  Sat, Nov 29 179 Siena L 55-59 44%     2 - 4 -8.4 -18.3 +9.9
  Sun, Nov 30 298 Longwood W 92-66 67%     3 - 4 +15.5 +11.1 +3.6
  Wed, Dec 3 274 Drexel W 75-73 62%     4 - 4 -7.0 +1.5 -8.5
  Sat, Dec 6 345 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-60 81%     5 - 4 +3.0 +8.7 -3.5
  Thu, Dec 18 47 @Virginia Commonwealth L 83-105 4%     5 - 5 -7.9 +16.4 -24.1
  Mon, Dec 22 26 @Virginia L 51-95 2%     5 - 6 -25.9 -10.7 -19.6
  Wed, Dec 31 329 Loyola Maryland W 80-73 75%    
  Sat, Jan 3 288 @Boston University L 72-74 42%    
  Wed, Jan 7 181 @Colgate L 71-78 25%    
  Sat, Jan 10 326 Holy Cross W 77-70 74%    
  Mon, Jan 12 203 Navy L 72-73 50%    
  Sun, Jan 18 331 @Army W 75-74 55%    
  Wed, Jan 21 181 Colgate L 74-75 45%    
  Sat, Jan 24 326 @Holy Cross W 74-73 53%    
  Wed, Jan 28 329 @Loyola Maryland W 77-76 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 321 Lafayette W 77-70 73%    
  Wed, Feb 4 308 Bucknell W 76-70 70%    
  Sat, Feb 7 203 @Navy L 69-75 29%    
  Wed, Feb 11 315 @Lehigh W 73-72 50%    
  Sat, Feb 14 331 Army W 78-71 76%    
  Wed, Feb 18 308 @Bucknell L 72-73 48%    
  Sat, Feb 21 321 @Lafayette W 74-73 53%    
  Wed, Feb 25 315 Lehigh W 76-70 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 288 Boston University W 75-71 64%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.1 3.5 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 12.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.4 5.8 4.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.5 6.8 3.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 16.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.0 6.7 3.1 0.4 0.0 14.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.0 2.6 0.3 11.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.1 2.3 0.2 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.5 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 5.1 7.6 11.0 13.2 14.5 13.8 11.5 8.6 5.3 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
16-2 97.6% 1.2    1.2 0.1
15-3 88.4% 2.7    2.2 0.5 0.0
14-4 66.0% 3.5    2.2 1.2 0.1
13-5 36.1% 3.1    1.2 1.5 0.4 0.0
12-6 13.0% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.8% 12.8 7.6 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 32.1% 32.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.3% 30.6% 30.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.9
15-3 3.1% 30.8% 30.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 2.1
14-4 5.3% 24.1% 24.1% 15.4 0.1 0.6 0.6 4.1
13-5 8.6% 19.6% 19.6% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.2 6.9
12-6 11.5% 16.7% 16.7% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.6 9.6
11-7 13.8% 11.9% 11.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.5 12.1
10-8 14.5% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 0.1 1.3 13.1
9-9 13.2% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0 12.2
8-10 11.0% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.5 10.5
7-11 7.6% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 7.4
6-12 5.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 5.0
5-13 2.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.6
4-14 1.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.5 8.3 88.7 0.0%