Holy Cross
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -10.0 321
Expected Predictive Rating -9.9 319
Pace 64.5 290
Improvement -0.7 216

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #311 D+ F+ C D+ D-
Defense D #312 D C D- B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 336 53% 304 -5.7 345
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 54 43% 53 +4.1 26
Three Pointers 41% 189 33% 230 -0.9 212
1st FG Attempt 0.97 255 -2.5 255
Second Chance 21.4% 353 0.94 298 0.20 357
Turnovers 16.8% 173
Freethrows 0.27 298 75% 82 0.20 245
Total Offense -5.2 311

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 60 64% 332 -5.6 348
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 218 43% 332 -0.5 230
Three Pointers 37% 282 33% 142 +2.2 91
1st FG Attempt 1.10 301 -3.9 302
Second Chance 29.2% 121 1.11 297 0.32 215
Turnovers 13.9% 336
Freethrows 0.27 68 72% 177 0.19 72
Total Defense -4.8 312

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.4 331 +0.5 267
Shot Type Accuracy -1.1 213 +3.3 303
Possession Length 18.5 303 17.3 188
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 312 0.16 141
Improvement +0.0 #178 -0.7 #236

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 2% 5% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 39% 19% 50%
First Four2% 2% 1%
First Round1% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Away) - 35.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 49 - 1310 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 60 @Providence L 79 - 89 3% -10  5% 0 - 1 C+ +2 D+ -4 B- F D+ B+ +7 B+ B+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 21 @BYU L 53 - 98 1% -28  0% 0 - 2 F -24 F -17 F D F+ D -6 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 110 @Utah L 69 - 87 7% -9  3% 0 - 3 D -11 D+ -4 C- F+ A- D- -8 D C+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 248 Hampton W 67 - 61 30% +0  51% 1 - 3 C +1 B- +4 C+ B- D- C -1 D+ D+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 278 @Brown L 49 - 68 27% -12  3% 1 - 4 F -23 F -17 D- F F+ D- -9 F F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 287 @Sacred Heart L 66 - 79 29% -9  5% 1 - 5 F+ -17 F -11 C F F D -7 F B+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 181 Siena L 69 - 73 29% -1  19% 1 - 6 D -8 D+ -4 A- F D+ D+ -5 F A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 3 269 Northeastern W 76 - 59 46% +13  91% 2 - 6 B- +8 D+ -2 B F B A +11 A C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 157 @Fordham W 70 - 69 12% -7  2% 3 - 6 C+ +4 B- +5 B- A D- C -1 D C D
 Tue, Dec 16 240 Dartmouth L 64 - 89 40% -11  17% 3 - 7 F -32 F -12 F+ F C+ F -21 F D B+
 Sat, Dec 20 153 @Harvard L 53 - 81 11% -16  1% 3 - 8 F -25 F -13 F D+ A F -16 F F C-
 Wed, Dec 31 324 Bucknell W 65 - 58 62% +4  85% 4 - 8 1 - 0 D+ -6 D- -7 D F C C+ +2 D A C+
 Sat, Jan 3 166 Navy L 58 - 65 27% -6  7% 4 - 9 1 - 1 D -10 F+ -8 F A+ D C- -3 D+ A D
 Wed, Jan 7 306 @Lehigh L 58 - 66 33% -5  9% 4 - 10 1 - 2 D- -13 F -13 F+ F B- C -1 D- C C
 Sat, Jan 10 258 @American W 84 - 73 24% +3  55% 5 - 10 2 - 2 B +8 B +6 B D A- C+ +2 A D- D-
 Wed, Jan 14 341 Army W 82 - 75 69% +7  95% 6 - 10 3 - 2 D -8 C +1 A F B D- -9 D C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 319 @Lafayette L 55 - 74 38% -12  0% 6 - 11 3 - 3 F -26 F -18 F F D F+ -10 D+ F F
 Wed, Jan 21 166 @Navy L 68 - 85 12% -6  14% 6 - 12 3 - 4 F+ -14 C +1 B C+ D F -17 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 258 American L 67 - 76 45% -8  3% 6 - 13 3 - 5 F -18 D- -7 B- F F+ F -11 D C- F
 Wed, Jan 28 209 @Colgate L 74 - 79 17% +0  57% 6 - 14 3 - 6 D+ -5 C+ +3 A- F A D- -8 C F+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 341 @Army L 68 - 69 46% -1  19% 6 - 15 3 - 7 D -10 F -11 F D- C+ C+ +1 B F A-
 Mon, Feb 2 275 Boston University L 64 - 72 48% -3  11% 6 - 16 3 - 8 F+ -17 D- -7 F C- A+ F -12 F B+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 306 Lehigh W 76 - 67 55% -0  31% 7 - 16 4 - 8 C- -2 C+ +2 B- F A+ C- -3 D+ A- F
 Wed, Feb 11 209 Colgate L 70 - 74 34% -5  20% 7 - 17 4 - 9 D -10 D- -7 F D+ D C- -3 A- F+ F
 Sun, Feb 15 312 @Loyola Maryland L 70 - 74 35%
 Wed, Feb 18 319 Lafayette W 70 - 67 61%
 Sun, Feb 22 324 @Bucknell L 68 - 71 40%
 Wed, Feb 25 275 @Boston University L 67 - 74 27%
 Sat, Feb 28 312 Loyola Maryland W 73 - 71 57%
Totals 9 - 20 6 - 12 -10 D -5 D+ F+ C D -5 D C D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D B C- C- 32% 28% 41% D- D+ F D+ F+ C D B- D+ D D- D- C+ D 43% 19% 37% D+ D C+ D+ C D- B- C B-
1.01 53% 43% 33% -1 -1 0.97 21% 0.9 .20 17% .27 75% .20 1.15 64% 43% 33% +3 +1 1.10 29% 1.1 .32 14% .27 72% .19
Nov
3		 Providence D+ A- B C B 24% 27% 49% D- B- F+ F F D+ B D- C+ B+ F A- A+ B+ 41% 17% 43% C+ B+ A+ F B+ D+ D B- D+
1.01 64% 44% 34% +3 -2 1.05 21% 0.4 .09 17% .32 67% .22 1.14 82% 33% 22% +1 +1 1.06 22% 1.5 .33 13% .40 74% .29
Nov
8		 BYU F D- A- F D 4% 58% 38% F F D D D F+ D- B- D D F F A- F 47% 13% 40% F F A+ A+ A+ F A F+ B+
0.74 50% 43% 15% -8 -7 0.71 22% 1.0 .22 21% .19 73% .14 1.36 93% 75% 29% +18 +2 1.42 16% 0.5 .08 8% .24 81% .20
Nov
10		 Utah D+ F A+ C C 32% 23% 45% D C- F A+ F+ A- A F D+ D- F F B- D+ 44% 11% 44% D D A F+ C+ F C+ D- C-
1.00 41% 58% 33% -1 -1 0.98 13% 1.4 .18 12% .34 48% .16 1.26 71% 50% 33% +7 +2 1.19 23% 1.1 .27 9% .30 79% .24
Nov
16		 Hampton B- A D+ D+ B- 39% 22% 39% C- C+ F A+ B- D- F+ A+ A- C C C- B C 44% 18% 38% F D+ F B+ D+ C C F F
1.13 75% 33% 31% +4 0 1.10 19% 1.8 .33 20% .32 100% .32 1.03 55% 38% 29% -4 +1 0.96 43% 0.8 .34 19% .35 94% .33
Nov
18		 Brown F F F+ C D- 35% 20% 46% C- D- D- F F F+ F F F D- F D- C- F 32% 11% 57% C F C F F C- C+ F C-
0.80 44% 33% 33% -6 0 0.89 24% 0.4 .11 21% .23 45% .10 1.11 67% 40% 33% +3 +1 1.09 29% 1.5 .43 20% .22 82% .18
Nov
21		 Sacred Heart F C- A+ B C 33% 13% 53% C- C D F F F C+ C B- D C- F F F 23% 8% 70% D+ F C- A+ B+ F+ B+ B- A-
0.99 60% 50% 38% +5 +1 1.13 27% 0.8 .20 24% .29 73% .22 1.18 58% 50% 41% +8 +1 1.19 28% 0.7 .19 15% .21 75% .16
Nov
24		 Siena D+ A+ A+ D+ A 38% 24% 38% C A- F F F D+ F C- F D+ F F A+ F 55% 25% 20% F F A+ C- A+ D- A+ D A+
1.06 74% 58% 32% +10 0 1.20 13% 0.7 .08 18% .19 70% .13 1.12 71% 62% 20% +9 +1 1.22 16% 1.0 .16 14% .16 78% .12
Dec
3		 Northeastern D+ C+ A+ C+ A- 38% 34% 28% F B F F F B F A+ F+ A B- A+ A- A+ 43% 8% 49% D- A C C C+ B- A+ A+ A+
1.14 63% 65% 36% +12 -2 1.22 22% 0.7 .15 15% .23 85% .19 0.89 55% 0% 28% -9 +2 0.88 27% 1.0 .27 20% .15 38% .06
Dec
6		 Fordham B- B F A B- 24% 20% 56% C+ B- D+ A+ A D- A+ C+ A+ C C+ F C- D- 38% 19% 44% C- D A+ F C D F B F
1.09 64% 11% 40% +1 -1 1.02 24% 1.8 .42 19% .46 71% .33 1.07 56% 56% 33% +2 0 1.06 21% 1.5 .32 16% .35 68% .24
Dec
16		 Dartmouth F F D- B+ D- 36% 26% 38% D- F+ F D F C+ A A A+ F C+ F F F 35% 19% 46% C F F A D B+ F+ A D+
0.95 39% 31% 37% -7 -1 0.86 19% 0.9 .16 12% .35 81% .29 1.32 53% 56% 59% +19 0 1.40 39% 0.8 .32 22% .38 65% .25
Dec
20		 Harvard F D- D F F 23% 23% 54% F F D+ D+ D+ A F B+ F F D- F F F+ 62% 13% 26% F F F F F C- D B- D
0.87 50% 33% 21% -13 -1 0.73 27% 0.9 .24 11% .17 78% .13 1.32 66% 50% 42% +9 +3 1.26 36% 1.8 .64 18% .30 80% .24
Dec
31		 Bucknell D- C- A+ F D+ 48% 35% 18% D D D+ F F C A+ B A+ C+ C- D+ D+ F+ 27% 27% 45% A+ D D A+ A C+ A+ A+ A+
1.04 58% 57% 14% +1 -1 1.03 30% 0.8 .22 18% .51 77% .39 0.93 57% 36% 35% 0 -2 0.98 30% 0.5 .16 21% .10 40% .04
Jan
3		 Navy F+ F D+ D+ F 28% 30% 43% D+ F B- A+ A+ D B B B C- D A A+ C+ 64% 16% 20% F D+ C+ A+ A D D+ F D-
0.95 31% 36% 30% -11 -2 0.77 33% 1.5 .50 20% .29 79% .22 1.06 62% 29% 22% -2 +3 1.02 29% 0.8 .21 16% .35 83% .29
Jan
7		 Lehigh F B+ F F F+ 42% 33% 25% D F+ F F F B- F D F C D+ C- F F+ 38% 32% 30% B- D- C C C C A F B+
0.91 64% 29% 23% -4 -1 0.90 16% 0.8 .13 14% .18 70% .13 1.04 61% 40% 43% +6 -1 1.11 21% 1.0 .21 19% .17 89% .16
Jan
10		 American B A A+ F A 32% 34% 34% F B F A D A- A+ C A+ C+ F F A+ A 37% 20% 43% B A D+ F D- D- F F F
1.18 73% 69% 25% +11 -2 1.19 20% 1.2 .24 14% .54 73% .39 1.03 74% 50% 9% -8 0 0.86 28% 1.1 .31 14% .43 88% .38
Jan
14		 Army C F B- A+ A+ 30% 28% 42% F+ A F F F B D- A+ C D- C- F B D+ 48% 5% 47% F D F+ A C+ F A- D+ B+
1.21 50% 40% 59% +14 -2 1.26 13% 0.5 .07 12% .28 88% .25 1.11 57% 67% 30% -2 +3 1.03 35% 0.7 .25 13% .19 73% .14
Jan
17		 Lafayette F D+ D+ F F 23% 35% 42% F F F D F D A D B+ F+ B C- F+ D+ 54% 21% 25% C- D+ F D+ F F F A- F+
0.85 55% 35% 25% -7 -3 0.81 17% 1.0 .17 17% .37 70% .26 1.14 50% 36% 38% -3 +1 0.98 38% 0.9 .35 8% .40 63% .25
Jan
21		 Navy C A+ B+ C- A- 25% 42% 33% F B D+ B+ C+ D C- A C F F F B- F 40% 26% 34% C F A+ F F F F D F
1.04 75% 45% 31% +6 -4 1.06 28% 1.1 .31 20% .23 83% .19 1.30 68% 50% 31% +6 0 1.13 20% 2.4 .48 9% .46 78% .35
Jan
24		 American D- F+ B- A+ B 35% 26% 39% D B- F+ F F F+ F A+ D- F D- D- B D 49% 13% 38% D D C D C- F B F B-
1.04 50% 42% 50% +8 -1 1.15 23% 0.6 .13 22% .28 86% .24 1.18 65% 43% 30% +2 +2 1.09 26% 1.0 .26 11% .21 83% .17
Jan
28		 Colgate C+ A- A+ C A 35% 27% 38% D- A- F A+ F A F F F D- A- F+ F C- 38% 32% 30% B- C C F F+ F B+ D+ B
1.12 68% 60% 33% +9 -1 1.18 7% 2.0 .14 11% .17 50% .08 1.19 48% 50% 41% +3 -2 1.05 28% 1.3 .36 9% .20 75% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Army F F C+ A F 41% 25% 33% D+ F D- D+ D- C+ D+ A+ B- C+ A+ F C+ B+ 33% 4% 63% D+ B F F F A- D- A+ A
1.00 29% 38% 41% -8 0 0.84 26% 1.1 .28 13% .32 84% .27 1.02 31% 50% 32% -10 +2 0.86 40% 1.5 .58 22% .30 38% .11
Feb
2		 Boston University D- F B A- F 38% 29% 33% D F D B+ C- A+ F B- F F F B+ F F 29% 36% 36% A+ F A C B+ F F A+ D+
1.10 35% 47% 41% -3 -1 0.94 25% 1.2 .31 5% .15 75% .11 1.24 75% 33% 60% +17 -3 1.31 18% 1.0 .18 12% .43 55% .23
Feb
7		 Lehigh C+ C B A B- 48% 27% 25% C B- F F F A+ B+ A+ A C- F A- A+ C- 46% 19% 35% F D+ A+ C A- F A+ A+ A+
1.17 57% 46% 42% +4 0 1.10 19% 0.7 .13 8% .38 83% .32 1.03 84% 30% 16% +1 +1 1.06 12% 1.0 .12 11% .17 60% .10
Feb
11		 Colgate D- B- C F F+ 22% 33% 45% F F A F D+ D A+ A+ A+ C- B C+ A A 39% 28% 33% C A- A- F F+ F C- F D-
1.02 64% 38% 23% -6 -3 0.84 39% 0.7 .26 18% .48 85% .41 1.08 52% 40% 28% -5 -1 0.91 21% 1.7 .36 12% .28 82% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 0.6 3rd
4th 1.9 1.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.4 5.9 0.3 6.5 5th
6th 5.6 3.1 8.7 6th
7th 1.6 12.9 0.3 14.8 7th
8th 0.3 11.5 6.3 18.1 8th
9th 0.9 11.9 18.2 0.5 31.4 9th
10th 5.3 9.6 2.1 17.0 10th
Total 6.2 21.8 33.4 25.5 11.3 1.9 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 1.9% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.1 1.8
8-10 11.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.5 10.8
7-11 25.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.4 25.1
6-12 33.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.4 33.0
5-13 21.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 21.6
4-14 6.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 16.0 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 3.8%