Holy Cross
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.8 #320
Expected Predictive Rating -7.1 #276
Pace 64.5 #295
Improvement -2.2 #282

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #307 C- F C- C- F
Defense #306 F C+ D- B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #347 1.11 #238 -5.6 #343
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #48 0.88 #39 +4.6 #18
Three Pointers 42% #166 0.97 #249 -0.6 #197
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #226 -1.6 #226
Freethrows 16.3 #262 73% #154 11.9 #226
Second Chance 20.8% #359 0.97 #276 0.20 #359
Turnovers 17.3% #234
Total Offense -5.3 #307

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #47 1.31 #334 -6.4 #355
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #249 0.94 #362 -0.8 #247
Three Pointers 38% #269 0.99 #144 +2.1 #111
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #329 -5.2 #329
Freethrows 15.3 #61 74% #279 11.4 #82
Second Chance 28.9% #111 1.06 #204 0.31 #138
Turnovers 13.9% #323
Total Defense -4.6 #306

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.1% #336 1.4% #301
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.1% #176 8.6% #324
Possession Length 18.5 #288 17.4 #201
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #317 0.16 #131
Improvement -1.2 #247 -1.0 #258

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 3.8% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.5% 6.9% 1.4%
.500 or above in Conference 32.6% 48.8% 22.4%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.0% 6.9% 18.5%
First Four2.7% 3.2% 2.4%
First Round1.6% 2.1% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: American (Home) - 38.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 49 - 1311 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 65 @Providence L 79 - 89 3% -10  0 - 1 +1 -0 B+ F D+ +3 B+ A- D
 Sat, Nov 8 12 @BYU L 53 - 98 1% -28  0 - 2 -23 -11 F F F -11 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 104 @Utah L 69 - 87 6% -9  0 - 3 -10 -2 D+ F A -9 D B- F
 Sun, Nov 16 230 Hampton W 67 - 61 28% +0  1 - 3 +2 +6 C+ C+ F -3 C- C- C
 Tue, Nov 18 264 @Brown L 49 - 68 24% -12  1 - 4 -22 -14 D F F -10 F F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 270 @Sacred Heart L 66 - 79 26% -9  1 - 5 -16 -8 C F F -9 F A F
 Mon, Nov 24 169 Siena L 69 - 73 29% -1  1 - 6 -8 -0 A+ F D -8 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 259 Northeastern W 76 - 59 44% +13  2 - 6 +9 +1 A- F A +9 A+ C+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 193 @Fordham W 70 - 69 16% -7  3 - 6 +2 +6 B- A+ F -4 D- C D
 Tue, Dec 16 221 Dartmouth L 64 - 89 38% -11  3 - 7 -32 -10 F F D+ -23 F D+ A-
 Sat, Dec 20 168 @Harvard L 53 - 81 13% -16  3 - 8 -26 -11 F D- A+ -19 F F C-
 Wed, Dec 31 319 Bucknell W 65 - 58 61% +7  4 - 8 1 - 0 -6 -4 D+ F D+ -1 F A- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 194 Navy L 58 - 65 33% -6  4 - 9 1 - 1 -12 -7 F A+ F -6 D- A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 7 307 @Lehigh L 58 - 66 33% -5  4 - 10 1 - 2 -13 -11 F F B+ -3 F C B-
 Sat, Jan 10 224 @American W 84 - 73 19% +3  5 - 10 2 - 2 +10 +11 A- D- A+ -0 A+ D D-
 Wed, Jan 14 333 Army W 82 - 75 65% +7  6 - 10 3 - 2 -7 +3 A+ F B- -9 D+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 314 @Lafayette L 55 - 74 37% -12  6 - 11 3 - 3 -25 -16 F F F -11 D+ F F
 Wed, Jan 21 194 @Navy L 68 - 85 16% -6  6 - 12 3 - 4 -16 +3 B C F -20 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 224 American L 68 - 71 38%
 Wed, Jan 28 199 @Colgate L 67 - 77 17%
 Sat, Jan 31 333 @Army L 72 - 74 42%
 Mon, Feb 2 285 Boston University W 71 - 70 51%
 Sat, Feb 7 307 Lehigh W 71 - 69 56%
 Wed, Feb 11 199 Colgate L 70 - 74 35%
 Sun, Feb 15 324 @Loyola Maryland L 71 - 74 40%
 Wed, Feb 18 314 Lafayette W 71 - 69 59%
 Sun, Feb 22 319 @Bucknell L 67 - 70 39%
 Wed, Feb 25 285 @Boston University L 67 - 73 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 324 Loyola Maryland W 74 - 71 61%
Totals 11 - 18 8 - 10 -10 -5 C- F C- -5 F C+ D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.0 2.3 0.6 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 6.5 6.1 1.4 0.1 15.6 4th
5th 1.0 7.7 7.6 1.6 0.0 0.0 17.9 5th
6th 0.3 5.7 8.7 1.6 0.1 16.4 6th
7th 0.1 3.0 9.0 2.4 0.0 14.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 7.0 3.8 0.2 12.2 8th
9th 0.6 4.3 4.5 0.5 0.0 9.9 9th
10th 0.5 2.2 2.8 0.6 0.0 6.1 10th
Total 0.5 2.8 8.3 15.4 20.0 20.4 16.2 9.8 4.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 29.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.4% 12.7% 12.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 1.6% 7.2% 7.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.5
11-7 4.5% 8.6% 8.6% 15.9 0.0 0.4 4.1
10-8 9.8% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6 9.3
9-9 16.2% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.8 15.4
8-10 20.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.6 19.8
7-11 20.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.4 19.6
6-12 15.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 15.3
5-13 8.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.3
4-14 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-15 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 16.0 96.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%