Fordham
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.2 155
Expected Predictive Rating -3.8 227
Pace 62.1 339
Improvement +6.4 10

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 245 D+ C+ C- F C-
Defense C+ 103 B- B- C- B+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 207 C 58% 169 -0.6 199
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 155 B+ 44% 45 +1.7 88
Three Pointers 41% 184 F+ 28% 359 -3.7 308
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.2 219 D+ -2.3 252
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 256
Second Chance B 35.6% 48 D 0.93 309 C+ 0.33 131
Turnovers C- 17.7% 231
Freethrows F 0.22 362 C 72% 199 F 0.16 359
Total Offense C- -2.6 245

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 313 C+ 56% 136 +3.6 67
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 35 B- 35% 81 -1.6 304
Three Pointers 40% 200 C 34% 176 +0.4 164
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -0.2 219 C+ -2.3 252
1st FG Attempt 0.97 95 B- +2.5 95
Second Chance B 27.2% 66 C- 1.05 222 B- 0.29 94
Turnovers C- 16.0% 232
Freethrows B 0.25 39 B- 70% 70 B+ 0.18 35
Total Defense C+ +2.4 103

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.5 353 17.0 139
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 258 0.16 153
Improvement +1.9 #84 +4.4 #16

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.7 12.7 14.7
.500 or above 14% 31% 7%
.500 or above in Conference 6% 17% 1%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 2% 0% 2%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Away) - 28.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 42 - 6
Quad 33 - 75 - 13
Quad 48 - 413 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 310 NJIT L 61 - 72 86% -5  23% 0 - 1 F -23 F -13 F C B F+ -10 F B- C-
 Tue, Nov 11 332 Wagner W 63 - 61 90% -2  28% 1 - 1 D- -12 F+ -9 F C+ B C- -2 B+ D- D
 Fri, Nov 14 248 @Iona L 71 - 76 56% +0  54% 1 - 2 D+ -7 D+ -4 F A C C- -3 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 205 LIU Brooklyn W 69 - 53 70% +11  88% 2 - 2 B +10 D+ -3 B F B+ A+ +15 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 324 Albany W 88 - 68 83% +11  97% 3 - 2 B +10 A- +10 A- A+ F C +0 A- D F
 Sun, Nov 30 210 Colgate L 62 - 72 60% -9  1% 3 - 3 D- -13 F+ -10 D- C D- D+ -4 D- A- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 320 Holy Cross L 69 - 70 88% +7  85% 3 - 4 D- -14 D- -6 C- C D+ D- -8 D+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 10 329 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75 - 54 89% +11  80% 4 - 4 B- +7 C- -1 B- B F A +10 C- A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 322 Manhattan W 82 - 53 88% +11  93% 5 - 4 A- +16 B- +4 B C+ D- A+ +14 A+ B- D
 Mon, Dec 22 334 New Haven W 65 - 47 90% +5  55% 6 - 4 C+ +4 F+ -8 C- B+ F A+ +14 B A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 31 96 @Dayton L 56 - 63 21% -5  0% 6 - 5 0 - 1 C +1 D- -7 D D+ D+ B+ +7 A+ F F+
 Sun, Jan 4 127 Richmond L 75 - 83 53% -2  32% 6 - 6 0 - 2 D -9 B- +5 B- A- F F -15 D- D F
 Wed, Jan 7 91 George Mason L 58 - 67 39% -1  36% 6 - 7 0 - 3 D+ -6 F+ -9 D D+ B- C+ +2 A B D+
 Sat, Jan 10 136 @St. Bonaventure W 81 - 77 32% +2  60% 7 - 7 1 - 3 B +9 A- +10 A- F A C -1 C F C-
 Wed, Jan 14 22 @Saint Louis L 56 - 78 4% -12  1% 7 - 8 1 - 4 C- -2 C- -1 C- D B+ D+ -4 C C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 107 Duquesne L 63 - 74 45% -6  0% 7 - 9 1 - 5 D -10 F -13 F C C- B- +3 C+ A- C+
 Wed, Jan 21 110 @Davidson L 63 - 68 26% +1  49% 7 - 10 1 - 6 C+ +2 D -4 A- C+ F B +6 B+ A C
 Wed, Jan 28 226 La Salle W 64 - 58 73% -1  39% 8 - 10 2 - 6 C -0 D+ -4 F+ B- B B +5 A+ C- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 82 @George Washington W 79 - 65 18% +4  76% 9 - 10 3 - 6 A+ +24 B+ +8 C+ A+ C A+ +16 A+ B+ B-
 Tue, Feb 3 51 Virginia Commonwealth L 59 - 63 22% -8  0% 9 - 11 3 - 7 C+ +4 F+ -8 F C+ B+ A +12 B+ D+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 136 St. Bonaventure L 67 - 70 54% +0  52% 9 - 12 3 - 8 C- -4 D+ -3 C+ D- D+ C- -2 F C A+
 Tue, Feb 10 141 @Saint Joseph's W 68 - 64 32% -3  27% 10 - 12 4 - 8 B +9 B +5 D+ B+ A B- +4 D+ B C+
 Sat, Feb 14 116 @Rhode Island L 62 - 68 28%
 Wed, Feb 18 276 Loyola Chicago W 73 - 63 81%
 Sat, Feb 21 110 Davidson L 64 - 65 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 64 - 78 10%
 Wed, Mar 4 226 @La Salle W 65 - 64 51%
 Sat, Mar 7 116 Rhode Island L 65 - 66 50%
Totals 13 - 15 7 - 11 +0 F -3 B+ D+ C- B- +2 F+ C F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C B+ F+ D+ 37% 22% 41% C- D+ B D C+ C- F C F C+ C+ B- C C+ 33% 26% 40% B+ B- B C- B- C- B B- B+
1.05 58% 44% 28% -2 0 0.97 36% 0.9 .33 18% .22 72% .16 1.05 56% 35% 34% -1 -1 0.97 27% 1.0 .29 16% .25 70% .15
Nov
4		 NJIT F B- C F F 35% 22% 43% D+ F B+ D- C B D F F+ F+ B- B F F 38% 23% 40% D F C A- B- C- A+ A+ A+
0.94 61% 36% 9% -15 0 0.71 40% 0.9 .36 12% .32 61% .19 1.11 50% 33% 52% +7 0 1.15 26% 0.8 .20 17% .15 50% .07
Nov
11		 Wagner F+ F A+ F F 48% 20% 33% C F D A+ C+ B C+ C- C C- A+ D+ D B 27% 29% 45% A B+ D D- D- D A+ A+ A+
1.05 36% 67% 27% -8 +1 0.87 26% 1.3 .34 12% .40 71% .28 1.02 23% 43% 36% -6 -2 0.86 34% 1.2 .42 17% .12 50% .06
Nov
14		 Iona D+ D B F F 39% 12% 49% B- F A- B+ A C F F F C- D F+ F F 39% 26% 35% B F+ A A+ A+ F D A+ C+
1.02 55% 43% 18% -13 +1 0.79 43% 1.1 .48 16% .14 63% .09 1.09 64% 47% 40% +8 -1 1.16 17% 0.2 .03 10% .29 56% .16
Nov
20		 LIU Brooklyn D+ A F B- B 49% 18% 33% C+ B D+ F F B+ D- F F A+ A+ F A+ A+ 40% 29% 31% B A+ A+ A+ A+ D F F F
1.04 68% 22% 35% +3 +1 1.10 31% 0.5 .17 15% .27 60% .16 0.80 33% 54% 7% -18 -1 0.64 23% 0.7 .15 18% .44 75% .33
Nov
29		 Albany A- A A+ C+ A 43% 20% 37% C A- B+ A+ A+ F A F B- C A+ F A B+ 34% 25% 41% B+ A- F B D F C+ F D+
1.30 70% 56% 35% +9 +1 1.22 42% 2.0 .85 21% .39 67% .26 1.01 42% 50% 26% -7 -1 0.86 40% 0.8 .33 13% .22 77% .17
Nov
30		 Colgate F+ C- D+ F F+ 45% 24% 31% C D- C- C+ C D- F A+ F D+ D F D F+ 29% 22% 49% C D- F A+ A- C- B+ F B-
0.96 57% 33% 25% -6 0 0.90 29% 1.0 .29 19% .13 86% .11 1.12 64% 55% 38% +8 -1 1.16 35% 0.5 .18 16% .20 82% .17
Dec
6		 Holy Cross D- D A+ C C- 38% 19% 44% C- C- F+ A+ C D+ A D B+ D- D- A+ F D+ 24% 20% 56% D+ D+ D+ F F B- F B+ F
1.07 56% 56% 33% +2 0 1.06 21% 1.5 .32 16% .35 68% .24 1.09 64% 11% 40% +1 -1 1.02 24% 1.8 .42 19% .46 71% .33
Dec
10		 Fairleigh Dickinson C- D- A+ A+ B- 41% 15% 43% B- B- A- C- B F F D+ F A C+ C+ C+ C- 32% 16% 52% C- C- A+ A+ A+ C A+ B- A
1.15 53% 57% 45% +8 +1 1.20 36% 0.9 .33 20% .25 69% .17 0.83 56% 38% 31% -3 0 0.96 17% 0.0 .00 18% .17 67% .11
Dec
13		 Manhattan B- D+ A+ C+ A- 36% 29% 35% D- B A+ F C+ D- F C F A+ A B A+ A+ 32% 32% 36% A- A+ A+ F B- D A+ F A
1.26 55% 75% 37% +11 -1 1.22 50% 0.9 .43 18% .08 75% .06 0.81 41% 35% 21% -13 -2 0.72 16% 1.5 .24 14% .16 100% .16
Dec
22		 New Haven F+ A- A- F C- 40% 27% 33% D- C- B B+ B+ F F C F A+ F A+ A- B- 26% 30% 44% A B B A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+
1.03 68% 46% 25% +2 -1 1.04 33% 1.2 .41 24% .17 75% .12 0.74 85% 13% 27% -5 -2 0.88 17% 0.3 .06 24% .04 50% .02
Dec
31		 Dayton D- A+ F F D 23% 19% 57% C- D A F D+ D+ F F F B+ F A+ A+ A+ 46% 27% 27% A- A+ B F F F+ A B- A
0.89 82% 22% 26% -4 -1 0.91 39% 0.6 .24 24% .17 63% .10 1.01 73% 0% 8% -14 0 0.73 24% 2.4 .58 13% .33 72% .24
Jan
4		 Richmond B- B+ A+ F B 27% 36% 38% F+ B- A+ F A- F A+ D A+ F D A+ F F 24% 44% 32% A+ D- B+ F D F B- C- C+
1.17 67% 56% 24% +3 -3 1.02 51% 0.9 .46 22% .48 67% .32 1.30 67% 23% 69% +12 -4 1.18 22% 1.4 .31 8% .31 78% .24
Jan
7		 George Mason F+ F C- D+ F+ 45% 18% 37% A- D A+ F D+ B- F+ F F C+ B- F A+ A+ 53% 22% 24% D A A+ F+ B D+ F D- F
0.93 43% 33% 32% -9 +1 0.86 40% 0.5 .21 14% .19 60% .11 1.07 58% 50% 9% -6 +1 0.91 21% 1.2 .25 14% .49 77% .37
Jan
10		 St. Bonaventure A- B F A+ A- 51% 16% 33% B+ A- C F F A C+ A+ A C D A F+ C- 27% 24% 49% B C B+ F F C- A F B+
1.22 64% 25% 50% +9 +1 1.22 29% 0.5 .14 14% .31 94% .29 1.16 64% 33% 40% +5 -1 1.10 31% 1.4 .45 17% .18 90% .16
Jan
14		 Saint Louis C- D D+ F+ D+ 35% 18% 47% B- C- A F D B+ F+ B D- D+ F F C- C- 33% 8% 59% B+ C B+ F C- F B+ C+ B+
0.92 47% 33% 26% -10 0 0.82 36% 0.4 .16 13% .25 77% .19 1.28 75% 50% 38% +10 +1 1.24 28% 1.4 .38 10% .25 71% .18
Jan
17		 Duquesne F D- A+ F F 33% 20% 46% C F A F C C- F F F B- B- A+ F C 33% 18% 49% A C+ A+ D- A- C+ F B+ F+
0.89 50% 55% 16% -12 0 0.78 39% 0.7 .29 18% .26 60% .16 1.04 56% 22% 42% +2 0 1.06 19% 1.2 .23 18% .47 67% .31
Jan
21		 Davidson D D A+ D A 42% 36% 22% D+ A- D A+ C+ F F F F B D- F A+ B 26% 30% 43% A B+ D- A+ A C F+ F+ F
0.97 53% 69% 30% +7 -2 1.13 24% 1.3 .32 28% .15 57% .08 1.04 67% 64% 20% +1 -2 1.00 36% 0.6 .22 17% .35 74% .26
Jan
28		 La Salle D+ F A F+ F 33% 20% 47% C- F+ B- B- B- B F A+ C- B A B A+ A+ 39% 31% 31% B A+ C C- C- D- C- F+ D+
1.05 41% 50% 29% -7 0 0.88 32% 1.2 .38 15% .15 100% .15 0.95 42% 33% 20% -14 -1 0.71 33% 1.0 .33 15% .34 78% .27
Jan
31		 George Washington B+ A+ F F B- 38% 25% 38% D+ C+ A+ C+ A+ C C+ A- B A+ A A B A+ 32% 19% 49% A+ A+ A+ F B+ B- A A+ A+
1.16 89% 17% 28% +3 -1 1.06 47% 1.1 .50 18% .30 76% .23 0.96 47% 30% 31% -7 0 0.87 25% 1.3 .33 19% .22 58% .13
Feb
3		 Virginia Commonwealth F+ D F F F 47% 21% 32% C+ F C+ C+ C+ B+ D A- C- A C- B+ C- B- 33% 31% 36% A+ B+ C D D+ A+ F A+ F
0.92 48% 27% 18% -15 +1 0.74 31% 1.0 .31 14% .25 79% .20 0.98 62% 33% 36% +1 -2 1.00 35% 1.2 .42 23% .57 61% .35
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 St. Bonaventure D+ B- D B C+ 35% 20% 46% C- C+ B F D- D+ C- F+ D+ C- F F F F 30% 48% 23% A+ F D B C A+ A+ B A+
1.08 63% 33% 38% +4 0 1.09 34% 0.6 .22 19% .28 71% .20 1.13 69% 57% 50% +18 -4 1.30 39% 0.9 .35 27% .16 71% .11
Feb
10		 Saint Joseph's B A+ F F C- 18% 36% 46% F D+ D+ A+ B+ A A+ A- A+ B- A D F+ D+ 34% 11% 55% C D+ B- B B C+ F A+ D+
1.08 89% 28% 26% -4 -3 0.88 29% 1.4 .40 11% .37 76% .28 1.01 47% 40% 38% -1 +1 1.02 31% 0.9 .28 19% .43 55% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 0.2 1.1 5th
6th 0.4 2.0 0.1 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 2.7 1.9 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 1.1 7.0 0.6 8.7 8th
9th 0.2 7.5 6.2 0.1 14.0 9th
10th 0.2 7.1 16.2 1.6 25.1 10th
11th 0.1 4.3 15.7 6.1 0.0 26.3 11th
12th 0.7 6.6 5.5 0.4 13.2 12th
13th 1.4 2.4 0.4 4.2 13th
14th 0.2 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 2.4 13.5 29.0 31.3 17.9 5.5 0.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
9-9 5.5% 0.3% 0.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 5.5
8-10 17.9% 0.2% 0.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.9
7-11 31.3% 0.1% 0.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 31.3
6-12 29.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 29.0
5-13 13.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.5
4-14 2.4% 2.4
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 13.7 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 1.3%